ex-Cub Factor

Here is this year's Ex-Cub Factor update:

 

Philadelphia Phillies: 3 -- Scott Eyre, Jamie Moyer, Matt Stairs
Milwaukee Brewers: 1 -- Jason Kendall

Chicago Cubs: None
Los Angeles Dodgers: 3 -- Nomar Garciaparra, Greg Maddux, Juan Pierre

Chicago White Sox: None
Tampa Bay Rays: 1 -- Cliff Floyd

Boston Red Sox: None
Los Angeles Angels Etc.: 2 -- Gary Matthews Jr., Justin Speier

A quick reminder: the Ex-Cub Factor, as coined by Ron Berler, popularized by Mike Royko, and brought to the Web by yours truly, says that no team with three or more ex-Cubs can win the World Series. Based on the numbers, then, only the Phillies and Dodgers are out of luck this year.

But I've been thinking abut the Factor recently and I wonder if it is as strong (and unfailing) as it used to be. The factor was originally born out of the idea that there is an ineffable "Cubness" (these days some might call it "Cubbery"), a stink of loserdom that works its way into the psyche of any player who toils on the North Side. Even after they leave the Friendly Confines, the theory goes, those players carry this Cubbie essence with them, and if you get a critical mass of ex-Cubs on one team, their combined futility is enough to deny their team the ultimate prize.

The Factor has been pretty strong; only twice (in 1960 and 2001) has it been defeated, and in each case it took walk-off hits in the bottom of the 9th of the 7th game (both times against the Yankees, no less) to overcome it.

The thing is, though, that I wonder if what it means to be a Cub hasn't changed over the last few years. After decades of management that ranged from boneheaded to non-existent, the team's corporate overlords seemed to wake up and realize they owned a baseball team in a major media market. They started increasing payroll to attract free agent talent; they hired some smart people to work on drafting and in the minor leagues; and they started bringing in proven talent at manager: first Dusty (a disaster, but still) and now Uncle Lou.

The net result has been three playoff appearances in the last six years. A casual fan might not think that's a big deal, but any Cub fan knows that's equal to the number of playoffs appearances the team had made in the previous 57 years.

It's more than just the playoff appearances, though. There has been a change in the feeling that surrounds the team. It's not like we're all suddenly, automatically, expecting the Cubs to be winners; it's hard to shake a hundred years of futility. But I think most Cub fans feel differently about the team's general prospects now than they did even a decade ago -- while we still acknowledge the problems of the past, and worry about them out of proportion with reality, we (or at least I) no longer default to the worst possible outcome when I start thinking about what's ahead.

As far as I know, Ron Berler never talked about what it would take to end the reign of the Ex-Cub Factor. I think a World Championship this year would probably do it; a pennant might be even be enough. But even if neither of those things happen, I feel like the Factor is on its way out. Being traded to the Cubs no longer means years of toiling for a second-division team, playing meaningless games in the best park in baseball and hoping for a ticket out of purgatory; I don't think it's a stretch to think that players can leave the employ of the Chicago National League Base Ball Club and no longer be branded losers from there on out.

Maybe the factor will come into play this year (although I hope it doesn't, because that would mean the Cubs aren't in the Series). If it does, it's possible that the Dodgers or Phillies will lose the Series, and the Factor will be said to have claimed another victim. But whether or not that happens, I have a feeling that, as time goes by, we'll hear less and less about the Lovable Losers and the effect playing for them has on the rest of players' careers.

Go Cubs!

Historical Ex-Cub Factor Data

 

Thanks to the hard work of Carl Condon, I now have a list of ex-Cubs for all post-season series going back to 1903. This data is still preliminary, since neither of us has been able to verify exactly who was on the official post-season rosters for every season. The data from the most recent years is verified, but before about 1993, we are going solely on who appeared in the World Series rather than who was on the roster.

The 2000s	The 1960s	The 1920s
The 1990s	The 1950s	The 1910s
The 1980s	The 1940s	The 1900s
The 1970s	The 1930s	The 19th C

2001 saw only the second instance of a team overcoming The Factor as the Diamondbacks, 4 ex-Cubs deep, won the Series in dramatic fashion. Here's the count for the rest of the '01 playoff teams:

Arizona Diamondbacks (4): Miguel Batista, Luis Gonzalez, Mark Grace, Mike Morgan
Atlanta Braves (3): Dave Martinez, Greg Maddux, Rey Sanchez
Houston Astros (3): Orlando Merced, Scott Servais, Jose Vizcaino
Oakland Athletics (1): Mark Guthrie
St. Louis Cardinals (1): Miguel Cairo
Seattle Mariners (1): Jaime Moyer
Cleveland Indians (0)
New York Yankees (0)

RESULT: DIAMONDBACKS (4) DEF. YANKEES (0) -- THE FACTOR IS DEFEATED

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In 2000, almost everyone hit the post-season safely below the threshhold:

New York Mets (3): Matt Franco, Todd Pratt, Turk Wendell
New York Yankees (2): Glenallen Hill, Jose Vizcaino
Atlanta Braves (2): Terry Mulholland, Greg Maddux
St. Louis Cardinals (1): Shawon Dunston
Oakland Athletics (1): Doug Jones
Seattle Mariners (1): Jamie Moyer
San Francisco Giants (0)
Chicago White Sox (0)

RESULT: YANKEES (2) DEF. METS (3) -- THE FACTOR HOLDS

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1999 marked the second time the Braves were tripped up by The Factor:

Atlanta Braves (3): Jose Hernandez, Terry Mulholland, Greg Maddux
New York Mets (3):Shawon Dunston, Todd Pratt, Turk Wendell
Texas Rangers (3): Mike Morgan, Rafael Palmeiro, Todd Zeile
Arizona Diamondbacks (2): Dan Plesac, Luis Gonzalez
Boston Red Sox (1): Rod Beck
Cleveland Indians (1): Paul Assenmacher
Houston Astros (1): Matt Mieske
New York Yankees (1): Joe Girardi

RESULT: YANKEES (1) DEF. BRAVES (3) -- THE FACTOR HOLDS

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1998's playoff teams were pretty much ex-Cub-free:

Cleveland Indians (2): Paul Assenmacher, Doug Jones
Boston Red Sox (1): Dennis Eckersley
Atlanta Braves (1): Greg Maddux
Houston Astros (1): Dave Clark
New Yok Yankees (1): Joe Girardi
San Diego Padres (1): Randy Myers
Texas Rangers (1): Todd Zeile

Ironically, the only team with a critical mass of ex-Cubs on their playoff roster in '98 was the Cubs themselves:

Chicago Cubs (3): Glenallen Hill, Mike Morgan, Terry Mulholland

As you may remember, they didn't make it to the World Series.

RESULT: YANKEES (1) DEF. PADRES (1) -- NO FACTOR

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The 1997 playoff teams ended up with the following ex-Cubs on their roster:

San Francisco Giants (4): Jose Vizcaino, Glenallen Hill, Damon Berryhill, Terry Mulholland
Baltimore Orioles (3): Jerome Walton, Rafael Palmeiro, Randy Myers
Seattle Mariners (3): Jamie Moyer, Heathcliff Slocumb, Rick Wilkins
New York Yankees (2): Joe Girardi, Rey Sanchez
Atlanta Braves (1): Greg Maddux
Cleveland Indians (1): Paul Assenmacher
Houston Astros (1): Luis Gonzalez
Florida Marlins (1): Alex Arias

Three of the six divisions were won by teams with critical masses of ex-Cubs. Before the playoffs, I wrote that chances were the Orioles and Mariners will drop Jerome Walton and Rick Wilkins, respectively, to drop below the 3-man threshold, which they did. The Giants, however, found themselves with way too many ex-Cubs. Even if they had made it to the World Series, there was no way they could have won.

It looked like the Altanta Braves learned their lesson from the previous season (see below); with Dwight Smith gone and Mike Bielecki on the shelf with shoulder surgery, they were well below the ex-Cub threshold. None of the other playoff teams had anything to worry about.

RESULT: MARLINS (1) DEF. INDIANS (1) -- NO FACTOR

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Remember 1996? Here are that year's playoff teams, with their ex-Cub contingent:

Baltimore Orioles (4): Randy Myers, Rafael Palmeiro, Mark Parent, Todd Zeile
Atlanta Braves (3): Mike Bielecki, Greg Maddux, Dwight Smith
St. Louis Cardinals (2): Dennis Eckersley, Danny Jackson
Cleveland Indians (2): Paul Assenmacher, Jose Vizcaino
New York Yankees (1): Joe Girardi
San Diego Padres (0)
Los Angeles Dodgers (0)
Texas Rangers (0)

Before the playoffs, I wrote the following: "So perhaps we have found the weak link in the Braves' armor -- 3 ex-Cubs is too many, even if one of them is Greg Maddux. Similarly, the Orioles' late-season acquisitions of Mark Parent and Todd Zeile may have in fact been a deadly mistake. The Cardinals, on the other hand, were wise to leave Mike Morgan off the post-season roster."

Well, whaddyaknow? The curse of the ex-Cubs strikes again. The Braves blow a 2-0 lead in the World Series and end up losing to the Yankees.

RESULT: YANKEES (1) DEF. BRAVES (4) -- THE FACTOR HOLDS

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1995

Atlanta Braves (2): Greg Maddux, Dwight Smith
Cincinnati Reds (2) Chuck McElroy, Jerome Walton
Colorado Rockies (1): Joe Girardi
Cleveland Indians (1): Paul Assenmacher
Seattle Mariners (1): Doug Strange
Boston Red Sox (0)
Los Angeles Dodgers (0)
New York Yankees (0)

RESULT: BRAVES (2) DEF. INDIANS (1) -- NO FACTOR

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1994: No playoffs

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1993

Atlanta Braves (3): Damon Berryhill, Jay Howell, Greg Maddux
Philadelphia Phillies (2): Danny Jackson, Mitch Williams
Chicago White Sox (1): George Bell
Toronto Blue Jays (1): Joe Carter

RESULT: BLUE JAYS (1) DEF. PHILLIES (2) -- NO FACTOR

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1992

Pittsburgh Pirates (3): Danny Jackson, Lloyd McClendon, Gary Varsho
Toronto Blue Jays (2): Joe Carter, Pat Tabler
Atlanta Braves (1): Damon Berryhill
Oakland Athletics (1): Dennis Eckersley

RESULT: BLUE JAYS (2) DEF. BRAVES (1) -- NO FACTOR

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1991: The first World Series since 1963 to feature no ex-Cubs

Pittsburgh Pirates (4): Bill Landrum, Lloyd McClendon, Gary Varsho, Curtis Wilkerson
Toronto Blue Jays (2): Joe Carter, Pat Tabler
Atlanta Braves (0)
Minnesota Twins (0)

RESULT: TWINS (0) DEF. BRAVES (0) -- NO FACTOR

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1990

Oakland Athletics (3): Dennis Eckersley, Ron Hassey, Scott Sanderson
Pittsburgh Pirates (2): Bill Landrum, Carmelo Martinez
Boston Red Sox (1): Dennis Lamp
Cincinnati Reds (1): Billy Hatcher

RESULT: REDS (1) DEF. ATHLETICS (3) -- THE FACTOR HOLDS

 

Back to the Ex-Cub Factor

The phrase "ex-Cub factor" has been thrown around quite a bit. It was originally coined by writer and Cub fan Ron Berler, who wrote an article in 1981 stating that since the Yankees of that season had five ex-Cubs on their roster, they were doomed to lose the World Series if they got there. He was right -- they lost to the Dodgers in six games.

Up until 2001, the curse of the ex-Cub had been almost complete. Since the Cubs last won the NL pennant in 1945, only once had a team with three or more ex-Cubs won the World Series. That was the 1960 Pirates, and Berler even manages to explain that anomaly away in his article.

In 2001, though, the Arizona Diamondbacks won the championship with a healthy contingent of ex-Cubs: Mark Grace, Luis Gonzalez, Mike Morgan, and Miguel Batista. It would appear that the curse has been broken, and Mark Grace even said as much during a post-game interview. In response, all I can say is it's pretty interesting that the World Series to which this one has most been compared is the 1960 Series, won by the Pirates. In both cases, the National League team beat the New York Yankees in the bottom of the 9th inning of the 7th game of the Series. Coincidience? Or SOMETHING MORE???

You can now read the entire original Ex-Cub Factor article right here. Special thanks to Ron Berler, and as always to Mark McClusky, for bringing this website to Berler's attention.

2003 Update: How will the ex-Cub factor affect this year's playoff race? Well, here are the teams in the playoff races and the ex-Cub contingent on their rosters:

Atlanta (4): Will Cunnane, Matt Franco, Ray King, Greg Maddux
San Francisco (3): Benito Santiago, Tim Worrell, Eric Young
New York Yankees (2): Felix Heredia, Jon Lieber (DL)
Cubs (2): Doug Glanville, Mark Guthrie
Houston (2): Orlando Merced, Jose Vizcaino
Florida (1): Lenny Harris
Boston (1): Bill Mueller
Oakland (1): Micah Bowie (DL)
Minnesota: None

As usual, the Braves look to be in trouble when it comes to ex-Cubs in the playoffs. Maddux will be on the post-season roster, and I imagine Franco will be, too. That leaves the two relief pitchers. Cunnane has been effective in John Smoltz's absence, so he very well may make the playoff roster. If he does, the Braves are doomed. Likewise the Giants, who feature ex-Cubs at starting catcher and closer. Eric Young was acquired as insurance against Ray Durham's injury. With Durham healthy, Felipe Alou would be wise to leave Young off the October roster unless he wants to treat fans to a repeat of last year's heartbreak.

I've been tracking the ex-Cub factor for the past few years, and Carl Condon has gone back to the earliest days of the World Series to track The Factor. I have combined the work he and I have done and I am in the process of making it available on the Historical Ex-Cub Factor page. You'll see that the Curse of the Ex-Cub has held true almost perfectly throughout the years.

Is there a lesson to be learned from this? I think so. If you find your team in a pennant race, RELEASE ANYONE WHO USED TO BE ON THE CUBS. It's really pretty simple. Guys like Shawon Dunston and Mike Morgan might help you get into the playoffs, but you'd better ditch them come playoff time.

2002 UPDATE: Angels (one ex-Cub) defeat Giants (three ex-Cubs) in World Series. Ex-Cub Factor fulfilled for the 20th time.