Hall of Fame

The Hall of Fame recently announced the results of the BBWAA ballots and honored Tony Gwynn and Cal Ripken Jr. On February 27th, we can only hope that Ron Santo becomes part of the festivities in late July and is awarded his rightful place in the Hall. But in the meantime, I thought it would be fun to take a look at the current crop of major leaguers and see which players may be headed to the hallowed halls of Cooperstown. This isn’t meant to be a hardcore analysis of their careers and numbers, mostly because their careers aren’t over yet. A lot of it is based on perception by me as well as what it seems the BBWAA values when voting. The number in parenthesis is there HOF monitor score devised by Bill James which is available on their Baseball Reference pages(a measure of how likely, not how deserving a player is). A number greater than 100 is a likely HOFer. I’m also going to break out something developed by Jay Jaffe called JAWS once in awhile which is a HOF monitor using WARP3 numbers developed by Clay Davenport at Baseball Prospectus.

As we go further down the food chain, the task of compiling this list grows more difficult. There’s a lot of projecting of future numbers and career arcs which is hardly a science. I mean in the early to mid 80’s, I bet everyone thought Dale Murphy was well on his way to the Hall and well that didn’t work out for him. And please do remember, this is more of a “what I think will happen”, and it’s certainly not a “ this is who deserves to make it”.

Set the Date

Mariano Rivera (173)

Roger Clemens (326)

Greg Maddux (241.5)

Frank Thomas (184)

Barry Bonds (345)

Mike Piazza (204)

Randy Johnson (320)

If each one of these players retired today, western New York would be rather crowded in five years. I’m not sure what argument you can make against any of these guys. Bonds may have the cloud of suspicion over his head at all times, but he’s been too damn good for too damn long not to make it. Although I’m sure the writers will “punish” him by not making him a first balloter. Thomas has the DH stigma, but what looks to be a late career resurgence coupled with his dominance in the 90’s makes this a no-brainer. The “Big Unit” will likely cross 300 wins in two years and be either second or third all-time in strikeouts when it’s all said and done. He also own the world’s greatest/most disturbing nickname of all time. He’s also the current leader ins strikeouts per nine innings (guess which Cubs is second). Piazza is probably the best hitting catcher of all-time, I imagine the voters will (mostly) forget about this defense. I think the bigger question will be whether Clemens, Maddux or Rivera can become the first unanimous selections ever.

An Act of God

Tom Glavine (166.5)

Pedro Martinez (193.5)

Ivan Rodriguez (212.5)

Alex Rodriguez (266)

Trevor Hoffman (132)

These guys are all safe bets to be make the Hall of Fame in my opinion, but they do have a little work to do. In Glavine’s case, he’ll need those 300 wins, Pedro was so dominating for a stretch that I don’t think he’ll need 300 wins, but 250 would be nice (he’s currently at 206). If you have any doubts over Pedro’s dominance, know that he’s the all-time leader in ERA+ at 160 (a measure of a player’s ERA relative to the league ERA where 100 is average). Pudge just needs to remain passable as an everday catcher for a few more seasons and his ticket will get punched. A-rod will probably be the top five in a bunch of hitter categories before it’s all said and done, all while playing a good portion at shortstop. Hoffman will likely pass 500 saves this year and will end his careers as the all-time saves leader Unlike Lee Smith though, he’s been regarded as one of the best closers for most of his career.

Let the Debate Begin

Craig Biggio (145)

Jeff Bagwell (149.5)

Jeff Kent (103)

Ken Griffey Jr. (209)

Chipper Jones (128)

Gary Sheffield (132)

Manny Ramirez (182.5)

Curt Schilling (167)

Jorge Posada (70)

Jim Thome (127.5)

Carlos Delgado (100.5)

John Smoltz (142)

There’s probably arguments for and against all these guys, so let’s break it down on a case by case basis.

Biggio: He’s 70 hits shy of 3,000 which should be good enough. Bill James basically said he should be a no-brainer in his <I>Historical Abstract</I> a few years back and if you consider that he put up some big numbers in the cavernous Astrodome to start his career along with the move from catcher to second base, I think Biggio will eventually find his way, although I doubt he’ll be a first balloter, as if that means anything.

Bagwell: The parallels to Frank Thomas’s career are eery and he’s got the added bonus of actually playing a defensive position. Jay Jaffe….

Kent: We’ll see how much those voters value defense as Kent has never been known for his glove, although he’s hardly been the liability he’s been made out to be (well at least not until recently). If he can keep himself at second base to finish his career, his offensive numbers stack up with the best of the game at that position. His prickly personality though, particularly with the media will probably be his ultimate demise.

Griffey Jr. : Griffey was a lock just a few years ago, but he has not aged gracefully. He seems to have avoided the steroid talk that has surrounded the other sluggers from the 90’s and those 500 home runs along with a winning smile (take notes Jeff Kent) should eventually land him there.

C. Jones: Quiet but spectacular, at least when he plays, which of course might be his ultimate downfall. If he stuck at third base his whole career, it’s a complete no-brainer, even more so than Ron Santo. He doesn’t seem to get the publicity of the other stars of the game but his numbers deserve it.

Sheffield: The numbers are there, but he’s a man without a position and that may ultimately end up costing him. That and admitted steroid use. And the part where he’s a jerk.

Schilling: It kind of depends on how much longer Schilling sticks around and how much the voters factor in the postseason. Because as postseason hero, he deserves his speech (as annoying as hell as it will probably end up being), but a lot of injuries leave his career numbers a bit lacking.

Posada: He’s had a hell of a little peak run and a few World Series rings, but it’s doubtful he’ll ever be the leader in any offensive categories amongst all-time catchers and he’s not really known for his defensive. He may be a player actually hurt by his New York status as voters may shy away from voting too many Yankees in from those 1998 and on teams.

Thome: He’ll turn 37 this year and likely top 500 home runs as well, as long as his body holds up. Of course it doesn’t look like 500 home runs will be the gold standard anymore but he’s got a shot at 600. He’s actually played far less games at DH than 1b or 3b, so that shouldn’t hurt him. He’ll have to stay relatively healthy over the next 5 years while still throwing up 30-40 homers with 100 RBI’s to really be considered.

Delgado: At 35 and over 400 home runs, he’s got a shot at 500 which brings you into the discussion. But until his move to New York, he played in relative obscurity and a lack of All-Star appearances and major awards will probably be his undoing.

Smoltz: He won’t reach 300 wins(he’s not even at 200 yet) but his detour as a dominate closer for three seasons will probably ease the voters mind. His exceptional post-season numbers and being a member of the Big 3 in Atlanta will only help his case.

Looking Good (for the most part)

Albert Pujols (154.5)
Andruw Jones (100.5)
Derek Jeter (192)
Miguel Tejada (99)
Johan Santana (56)
Lance Berkman (73.5)
Vladimir Guerrerro (163.5)

A list of some of the better talent in the game, but they’ll have to avoid the injury bug-a-boo or drastic late career falloff before they get in. Pujols and Jeter could also knock on the unanimous door when it’s all said and done. Andruw Jones might seem like a bit of a surprise, but he’ll finally turn 30 this year and is already over 300 home runs and 1000 RBI’s along with being recognized as one of the great defensive center fielders of all time. If I had to guess anyone on that list that won’t make it, it would be Miguel Tejeda who I for no real great reason, feel will decline sharply over the next few years.

These Guys Deserve A Mention

Nomar Garciaparra (120.5)
Mike Mussina (109)
Jason Giambi (95)
Billy Wagner (86)
Scott Rolen (64.5)
Bernie Williams (133)

Nomar’s move off of SS will end up killing his chances, along with the injuries. I think Mussina needs to get to 300 wins and he’s four to five years away from that. Giambi has a good chance at 500 home runs, but the admitted steroid use will likely keep him out. Wagner’s only 34 and will likely be in the top three of all-time saves leaders. Scott Rolen’s various injuries will probably keep his career numbers down, but if you like defensive metrics, BP has him as just as good, if not a better glove man than the immortal Brooks Robinson.. Bernie had a nice peak run, but he doesn’t have a defensive reputation to fall back on (despite 4 Gold Gloves) and he’s the type of hitter who needs something like 3000 hits to punch him his ticket.

Up and Comers

Miguel Cabrera (47)
Carlos Zambrano (18)
Francisco Rodriguez (38)
Mark Teixeira (33.5)

They’re nowhere close right now, but they started their careers at a young enough age that the final numbers could be quite staggering when it’s all said and done. Here’s a fun little number on K-rod. At only 24 years of age, he’s already saved 106 games. Assuming a injury-free career of fifteen more seasons of baseball and a modest average of 40 saves a year (less than he’s had either of the last 2 years), he’ll be good for over 700 career saves, close to doubling the current mark.

Don’t Be Surprised If…

Aramis Ramirez (32.5)
Alfonso Soriano (69.5)
David Ortiz (69)
Adam Dunn (28)
Barry Zito (36)
Eric Chavez (29)
Roy Oswalt (42)
Chase Utley (26.5)
Carlos Beltran (62)

If Alfonso sticks to the leadoff spot and keeps popping 40/40 on the league, okay 30/30’s, he’s going to be hard to ignore. It’s doubtful Aramis will last long enough, but he’ll top 200 homers this year at age age 29 and very well could end up in the 1700 to 1800 RBI range. Then throw in all those World Series rings the Cubs are destined to win now that we’ve stated it as a public goal. Eric Chavez has rather similar offensive numbers to Aramis right now at only a year older and a sterling glove reputation on top of it. Adam Dunn could very reasonably make a run at Aaron’s record or I guess it will be Bonds’s record. Roy Oswalt got a late start to his career and will more likely retire early to drive a tractor, but if he keeps racking up the wins and some Cy Young awards, he may get consideration. Zito seems like a longshot but if he can keep racking up 15-20 wins by playing on mostly good teams and throwing a lot of innings, the career numbers will eventually add up.

Watch Out For

Justin Morneau (16.5)
Ryan Howard (38.5)
Joe Mauer(30.5)
Jose Reyes (16.5)
Grady Sizemore (16.0)
David Wright (25.0)

These guys have only been around for a few years, but the early parts of their career have been beyond outstanding.

The Unanimous Debate

Will there ever be a unanimous selection? Well, the short answer is no because of potzies like this guy who don’t believe anyone should ever get in unanimously because if Babe Ruth didn’t do it, no one should. But I think there are four strong candidates right now in Albert Pujols, Derek Jeter, Greg Maddux and Roger Clemens.