MLB Draft
You Can't Win If You Don't Play
UPDATE: The MLB Rule 4 Draft Competitive Balance Lottery has been postponed until Wednesday 7-18.
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The Rule 4 Competitive Balance and Forfeited Draft Pick lotteries will be held next Monday, and while it does not appear that any MLB club will be forfeiting a 1st round pick as the result of exceeding its Signing Bonus Pool by 5%+ (although it could still happen), 12 MLB clubs will definitely be awarded Competitive Balance draft picks in next June's Rule 4 Draft (First-Year Player Draft).
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Cubs Get 16th Pick in Next Year's Draft
Baseball America has the updated draft order for the 2010 MLB draft.
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A Look at a Decade of the MLB First Year Draft
Reader Real Neal breaks down the first round of the draft in a variety of ways to see if there's an optimal strategy and how have the Cubs done relative to their drafting position.
Two topics are always in hot debate this time of the year, when it comes to the MLB draft. How have the Cubs done, and who should they pick?
With that in mind, I am taking a look at 10 years worth of first round picks to try and help answer those questions. I am only looking at the top 30 picks each year (yeah I know the Cubs draft 31st), just to simplify things. The 10 year range I used was ’96 to ’05. It’s just too early to tell what is going to happen with highschoolers only drafted three years ago. I used WARP3, even though Baseball Prospectus has got something a bit wonky going on with their WARP3 scores for 2009, which seem exaggerated. I figured since the majority of these players are still playing, though, that the slight wobble could sort of build in a little projection.
To start off with, here is some general charts, which should be self explanatory.
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MLB Draft: Nobody Knows Nothin'
The 2009 MLB draft is going to be a three day event this year starting tonight with round 1 moving into prime time on the MLB Network. That seems pretty dumb. They're going to put a press conference of guys announcing names against actual baseball games. I know I'll be watching the Cubs vs. Astros games instead. In their quest to emulate the NBA and NFL drafts, MLB forgot to notice that the other two sports do their drafts in the offseason when people have no football or basketball to watch. Granted, it would be hard to do it in the offseason, but they should at least put the first round on a Monday or Thursday and jerry-rig the schedule so there's very few games that night or make them day games leading up to the draft (I've copyrighted that idea Selig, don't try and steal it).
The Cubs have the 31st pick in the first round thanks to a few players being unsigned last year by other teams and thus getting two draft picks. The Cubs don't draft again until the second round and pick #79. This is Tim Wilken's fourth attempt at trying to pump up the Cubs system and although the only major league return so far has been Jeff Samardzija, Josh Vitters is quickly working his way to the top of the minor league prospect charts and Josh Donaldson was one of the key pieces in the Rich Harden trade last year. Wilken avoided the topic of who the Cubs might draft in a recent interview at Scout.com but did say he almost always picks the best player regardless of positional need, but if there is a hole in the system it's left-handed pitching. He does prefer shortstops and center fielders in general, feeling they have the athletic ability to move around the diamond, although he does feel the system is pretty stocked at shortstop and catcher right now in terms of depth.
Who will the Cubs pick with their first pick? I've listed below a few players that have been mentioned in mock drafts and whispers. AJ Pollock's the name you'll see the most but Jim Callis at Baseball America in his morning mock draft doesn't believe he'll last to the Cubs.
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MLB.com Needs to Look Up the Definition of Preview
So MLB.com is doing a minute and a half "previews" for each team leading up to the draft on Tuesday. You can find the Cubs version by following this link (Mlb.com has something against embedding video files). If you don't want to waste that minute and a half of your life, let me summarize the "preview" portion of the video.
"This year's first pick falls at number 31 overall and with a deep pitching crop, the Cubs will likely take advantage."
Chicago Cubs Draft History
We've had a few draft history pieces over the years, a 3-part series I did back in 2005( the third part is particularly gruesome) and one by reader "Real Neal" last year. Reader "Wiscgrad" has put one together for this year and I'll be adding it to the "TCR Junk Drawer" as soon as I get a moment.
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Recent comments
crunch (view)
masterboney is a luxury on a team that has multiple, capable options for 2nd, SS, and 3rd without him around. i don't hate the guy, but if madrigal is sticking around then masterboney is expendable.
TarzanJoeWallis (view)
I THINK I agree with that decision. They committed to Wicks as a starter and, while he hasn’t been stellar I don’t think he’s been bad enough to undo that commitment.
That said, Wesneski’s performance last night dictates he be the next righty up.
Quite the dilemma. They have many good options, particularly in relief, but not many great ones. And complicating the situation is that the pitchers being paid the most are by and large performing the worst - or in Taillon’s case, at least to this point, not at all.
Childersb3 (view)
Wesneski and Mastrobuoni to Iowa
Taillon and Wisdom up
Wesneski can't pitch for a couple of days after the 4 IP from last night. But Jed picked Wicks over Wesneski.
crunch (view)
booooooooooo
also, wisdom and taillon are both in chicago.
TarzanJoeWallis (view)
Tonight’s game postponed. Split games on Saturday.
crunch (view)
cubs getting crazy good at not having player moves leak.
taillon we 100% know is pitching tonight. who he's replacing and any additional moves are unknown as far as i can tell.
p.wisdom was not in today's lineup in iowa (rained out) and he was removed from the game last night mid-game, but not for injury. good bet he's with the team in the bigs, too.
Bill (view)
A good rule of thumb is that if you trade a near-ready high ceiling prospect, you should get at least two far-away high ceiling prospects in return. Like all rules-of-thumb, it depends upon the specific circumstances, but certainly, we weren't going to get Busch for either prospect alone.
Sonicwind75 (view)
Right on schedule, just read an article in Baseball America entitled "10 MLB Prospects Outside The Top 100 Who Have Our Attention". Zyhir Hope was one of the prospects featured. It stated that he's "one of the biggest arrow-up sleeper prospects in the lower levels right now."
Not sharing to be negative about the trade, getting a top 100 prospect who is MLB ready should carry a heavy prospect cost. But man, Dodger sure are good at identifying and developing young talent. Andrew Friedman seems to have successfully merged Ray's development with Yankees financial might to create a juggernaut of an organization.
Sonicwind75 (view)
I suspect Brown will spend some time in the bullpen due to inning restrictions. Pitched only 93 innings last year and career high is 104 innings in 2022. I would expect them to be cautious with a young player with his injury history.
Childersb3 (view)
I wanted Almonte gone last week, but that was before Merryweather went down and Little got demoted. Almonte in his last 5 appearances has gone 4.1 IP with no ER or Runs. NO hits, 3 BBs and 8 SO. He did hit 96 with his 2S FB in AZ on Tues.
I don't see Jed waiving him when we have injuries all over and guys with options that can be sent down.
I probably won't like the move Jed makes, but he can't play the "let's hope no one wants his 1.7mil remaining deal and we can hide him in Iowa" card.
That's why I think the current Bullpen stays as is and Wicks goes to Iowa.
I don't like that, but that's the fix I see.
We'll find out soon enough!!!