PECOTA
The Cubs Over/Under on Wins is Set at 71
The pre-season ritual of BP releasing their preliminary PECOTA numbers is upon us and as expected the Cubs are in the bottom 5 of the league. They've got them tabbed at 71 wins at the moment, 3rd worse in the league with only the Astros and Marlins being worse.
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Cubs' PECOTA Projections
Here are the weighted means from BP's PECOTA projection system in a few categories for the Cubs. PECOTA does try to project playing time, so cumulative stats like VORP and WARP are based off of that.
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Recent comments
Charlie (view)
The Cards also traded for both Jim Edmonds and Larry Walker. It's the developing part that has fallen off. Of course, it could also be the case that there are no more Matt Carpenters left to pull out of the hat.
Childersb3 (view)
Cubs sign 28 yr old RHRP Daniel Missaki. He was in MiLB from his 17yr old to 19yr old years and did pretty well.
He's been in Mexico and Japan the last four years and has done well also.
He's supposedly Japanese and Brazilian.
Interesting sign. We obviously need to RP in the system
Injuries are mounting everywhere!!
TarzanJoeWallis (view)
Sure, they made generally short term trades for established players to enhance what they already had or traded for players early enough in their careers that they were essentially Cardinals from the start. What they never did was to try to use the more established players as foundational cornerstones.
Essentially we’re saying the same thing. They have given up on player development to the point that even their prospects that make it to the bigs flop so that they have to do things like buy most of their rotation and hope for the best.
Dolorous Jon Lester (view)
I don’t buy that. They had been doing that for years.
They did it with Matt Holliday. They did it with John Lackey. They did it with Mark Mulder. They did it with Jason Heyward, who had a great year for them. I’m sure there’s more but those come to mind immediately.
I attribute it more to a breakdown in what they’re doing in terms of development than a culture thing.
TarzanJoeWallis (view)
They won those trades and sacrificed their culture. That’s exactly their problem.
Dolorous Jon Lester (view)
The other part that’s kind of crazy is they made two very high profile trades, one for Goldschmidt and one for Arenado, and they very clearly won those trades. They just haven’t been able to develop players the last handful of years the way they usually do.
I guess the moral there is it’s hard to stay on top of your game and be good at what you do in perpetuity.
TarzanJoeWallis (view)
Marmol was extended at the beginning of the year. Two years I believe.
crunch (view)
Jesse Rogers @JesseRogersESPN
Craig Counsell doesn’t have a timetable for Cody Bellinger who technically has two cracked ribs on his right side. CT scan showed it today.
Dolorous Jon Lester (view)
Thought it might have been David Peralta given the open 40 man spot and how PCA has played so far.
Dolorous Jon Lester (view)
I hope they keep Mozeliak a few more years. Marmol too!