Sabermetrics

Cubs OPD Rankings: One Stat Will Rule Them All

This is a couple of weeks old, but Chris Dial at Baseball Think Factory came out with a huge spreadsheet rating every player in the league on offense and defense with the appropriately named metric OPD (Offense Plus Defense). It does not take into account baserunning though, and be aware that players are compared to those who play the same position.  He briefly explains the methodology in that link and a further description of the defense can be found here. I didn't spend a lot of time assessing the merits of his system, but it seems solid enough. It tells me Albert Pujols and Joe Mauer were the best players in their respective leagues last year and well that certainly passes the smell test, although by no means is it the ONE stat that will settle every argument from now until the end of days.

The full Google spreadsheet can be found at this link and I've listed the Cubs team ratings and individual players below. It would have been nice to put a ranking next to each player so I didn't have to count them out, which I'm not going to do for every player, but I'll let you know that Soto was 17th in the NL and DeRosa 18th. The numbers are runs relative to average, not replacement or wins, and of course, a positive number is above average, negative is below average.The general sabermetrician's rule of thumb is that 10-12 runs is good for a win.

Mmmm...Secret Sauce

One of the many toys at Baseball Prospectus is something they call "Secret Sauce". BP has successfully cracked the code to playoff success and nailed the last 45 World Series winners. What? How have you never heard of this amazing prediction system? Because I made that last part up, but nevertheless a fun tool to look at as we await our playoff opponent.

I looked back through 2000 and BP did predict three World Series winners and six of the 16 participants in the World Series correct. You scoff, but what's your playoff prediction success rate?

The formula is simple enough and rather intuitive to what is commonly believed among baseball folks that power pitching, a good closer and good defense wins in the playoffs. In this case, BP uses FRAA (Fielding Runs Above Average), EqK9 (Equivalent Strikeout Rates per 9 innings) and WXRL (Win above Replacement Pitcher for the team's closer) and comes up with a score.

Their predictions and the 2008 rankings after the jump.

Cubs Appear Ripe for "Miracle" Season (in 1984)

No, this isn't a bold Ryan Dempster-like statement about the Cubs 2008 chances. We're going to hop into the DeLorean we have sitting around here at the sprawling TCR headquarters and visit my all-time favorite Cubs team - the 1984 ballcub.


I'm sure I'm not the only one out there who can point to the 1984 Cubs as the reason why they're still Cubs fans today. As a young nine-year old living in the Northwest suburbs of Chicago, I had not yet quite sworn my life-debt to either Chicago team. If anything I was leaning towards the White Sox as they had just come off of a successful 1983 season and Dad G. fancied himself more a White Sox fan over the Cubs. Plus me and my brother scored like 8 White Sox helmets on a giveaway day the year before and that was kind of cool.

Then 1984 hit and the Cubs-love swept through Chicago. The mix of the "Daily Double", WGN, Harry Caray and being able to catch the end of most Cubs homes games right when I got home for school was enough to sway me to the Northsiders.

But, this piece isn't about my reasons for being a Cubs fan, rather about one man's bold prediction.

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  • Happ and Jiminez to play in the AFL. Baseball is the best.

    billybucks 2 min 5 sec ago view
  • You magnificent Bastardo!

    jacos 24 min 48 sec ago view
  • Difference is LaStella sucks, and Chapman doesn't

    /,I need

    jacos 1 hour 18 min ago view
  • My guy Addy

    jacos 1 hour 24 min ago view
  • \m/

    jacos 1 hour 32 min ago view
  • he's attempting a comeback (or he's just very bored) and playing indie ball in the atlantic league...short-lived-cub brad snyder is also on his team.

    very boring numbers for a guy with his experience in indie ball, though not bad numbers...probably not enough to get him a minor league deal at his age (33)

    crunch 1 hour 32 min ago view
  • there goes heyward's gold glove win. bench him and bring up matt murton.

    crunch 1 hour 37 min ago view
  • felt like 36 for sure....

    Rob G. 1 hour 40 min ago view
  • Didn't LaHair hit 36 before the All Star Break? Then none after.

    John Beasley 1 hour 41 min ago view
  • @CarrieMuskat 41s41 seconds ago Bryant is 1st #Cubs player to top 35 HRs since Aramis Ramirez hit 38 in 2006

    surprised me, thought Soriano may have or Rizzo...maybe LaHair or Schierholtz too :)

    Rob G. 1 hour 49 min ago view
  • Twitter tells me more boo's than cheers for LaStella.

    Sigh.

    What was the reaction in Chapman's first game? I was there about a week later and it was all cheers.

    Not that the situations are a one-to-one, but...damn, priorities 'Murica.

    Rob G. 1 hour 53 min ago view
  • bryant is good at doing home rons.

    crunch 2 hours 23 min ago view
  • Word is Patton is refusing to report to Des Moines.

    Charlie 2 hours 28 min ago view
  • lastella's not lost the ability to play 2nd...that's for sure.

    crunch 2 hours 28 min ago view
  • I'd wait til after our last election if I was you.

    Old and Blue 2 hours 31 min ago view
  • i tried...all i got back was comments about beyonce and the walking dead. maybe this should be done in the off-season.

    crunch 2 hours 34 min ago view