Statistical Analysis

I'm jumping to center field because it's a bit of a mess and not nearly as interesting as left or right, which I'd like to save at least one of those for Monday.

Before we head to the outfield, we take on the field generals. A difficult position to evaluate with the numbers just because there's just no great way to numerically measure a catcher's defense, leadership and ability to work with his pitching staff...but we'll do our best. I did want to note, I'll keep going with these through the weekend just so we can finish this up by early next week. If you take the weekends off from TCR, be sure to check back Monday and vote on the polls you missed.

The backstops after the jump...

It may seem I've been a bit down on our Cubbies in the first three installments, but do not fret, the Cubs and Aramis Ramirez runaway with the third base honors.

The hot corner after the jump...

Your scrap-tastic contenders after the jump....

UPDATE: Thanks to you wonderful readers, it was brought to my attention to check Tejada's projections since he revealed his true age. His WARP-3 three year projection is updated in the chart and went down from 4.13 to 3.2. I'd still rate him first though even though he now drops behind Hardy and Wilson in the WARP-3 projections.

Here are the ground rules. We're trying to figure out who you'd rather have on your team. Do your best to take your Cubs bias out of the equation if possible (that shouldn't be hard for some of you). But we're also trying to figure out who has the best players on the their team right now, so I'm going to use the players projected to get the most playing time this year. Sure, Jay Bruce will eventually take over center field duties in Cincinnati, but who knows when. The chart after the jump includes their 3-year WARP-3 averages (2005-2007) and their projected 2008-2010 averages.The final column, appropriately labeled "Rob's Rankings", are simply how I ranked them before looking at any stats. For the most part I was pretty close to what the numbers bear out. I should also note that I did my rankings before the season started.

We'll start off with the toughest and most talented position, the first basemen. Your gladiators after the jump....

• Outscore opponents 67-28 (41-9 over the last 4 games)
• Score first in 6 of the 8 games (they won 5 of the 6 games they scored first in)
• Out-homer your opponents 10-8
• Hit 342/436/535 as a team
• Walk 43 times, while only allowing 28 free passes yourself
• Hit .389 with 21 RBI's with the bases loaded
• Pitch to a tune of 3.25 ERA as a team
• Hold opposing team to a 219/300/364 line
• Bear down and hold the opposing team to 197/310/361 with men in scoring position
• Strike out 56 batters in 72 IP (7.375 K

A few of you were unimpressed by my previous post by telling me that it should be expected that the top hitters in the game were also the top hitters versus the Cubs. A fair assessment...

So who were the most unexpected Cubs killers? In other words, who saved their best to drive some nails in the Cubs' coffins? Reader "big_lowitzki" did the research for us and provided me with the list.

One of the latest and most exciting developments in baseball research is the measurement and analysis of individual pitches. For instance, the Pitch f/x system created by the company Sportvision tracks the in-flight movement of pitches from two different cameras, thereby assessing a pitch's velocity, horizontal and vertical movement. A bit less than 1/4th of all pitches from last year were so assessed, and MLB has made the raw contents of that data available at this location. Better yet, there are several bloggers who, unlike me, have the talent and dedication to transform that heaping mess of data into meaningful findings. Most notable, Josh Kalk has been developing player cards, a la what's available at baseball-reference or fan graphs or baseball cube, except with graphs incorporating this incredible new source of information on pitch selection and pitch behavior. He also has developed a remarkable application where you can select any player and any pitch with just about any limiting parameter you could want - say, Bob Howry fastballs to right-handed hitters on 0-2 counts with a velocity above 93 MPH that resulted in swinging strikes - and then view the results on a handy X/Y graph.

As if that's not enough, there's the more user friendly if less revolutionary pitch data commercially available at Baseball Info Solutions which is being applied by the talented folks at Fan Graphs. Fan Graphs now offers data on individual players' pitch selections and velocity, all thoroughly sortable. For instance, Tim Wakefield and Chad Bradford feature the two slowest average fastballs in the major at 74.2 and 78.6 MPH, respectively, while no one threw a changeup with greater frequency last year than Matt Wise, at 54%

There's a gold mine of potential information available at our fingertips, with The Baseball Analysts and The Hardball Times leading the way in this sort of analysis. With far less sophistication than what those guys can offer, let's see what it can tell us about the Cubs' staff.