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Just wanted to give everyone a head's up about one of our new pages: the Cubs 40-Man Roster. We think it's an improvement over the one at cubs.com. The two neatest features are that you can sort by column and you've got each players' option year info at your fingertips, which was mined from Arizona Phil's wonderful work.  

Historical Ex-Cub Factor Data

 

Thanks to the hard work of Carl Condon, I now have a list of ex-Cubs for all post-season series going back to 1903. This data is still preliminary, since neither of us has been able to verify exactly who was on the official post-season rosters for every season. The data from the most recent years is verified, but before about 1993, we are going solely on who appeared in the World Series rather than who was on the roster.

The 2000s	The 1960s	The 1920s
The 1990s	The 1950s	The 1910s
The 1980s	The 1940s	The 1900s
The 1970s	The 1930s	The 19th C

2001 saw only the second instance of a team overcoming The Factor as the Diamondbacks, 4 ex-Cubs deep, won the Series in dramatic fashion. Here's the count for the rest of the '01 playoff teams:

Arizona Diamondbacks (4): Miguel Batista, Luis Gonzalez, Mark Grace, Mike Morgan
Atlanta Braves (3): Dave Martinez, Greg Maddux, Rey Sanchez
Houston Astros (3): Orlando Merced, Scott Servais, Jose Vizcaino
Oakland Athletics (1): Mark Guthrie
St. Louis Cardinals (1): Miguel Cairo
Seattle Mariners (1): Jaime Moyer
Cleveland Indians (0)
New York Yankees (0)

RESULT: DIAMONDBACKS (4) DEF. YANKEES (0) -- THE FACTOR IS DEFEATED

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In 2000, almost everyone hit the post-season safely below the threshhold:

New York Mets (3): Matt Franco, Todd Pratt, Turk Wendell
New York Yankees (2): Glenallen Hill, Jose Vizcaino
Atlanta Braves (2): Terry Mulholland, Greg Maddux
St. Louis Cardinals (1): Shawon Dunston
Oakland Athletics (1): Doug Jones
Seattle Mariners (1): Jamie Moyer
San Francisco Giants (0)
Chicago White Sox (0)

RESULT: YANKEES (2) DEF. METS (3) -- THE FACTOR HOLDS

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1999 marked the second time the Braves were tripped up by The Factor:

Atlanta Braves (3): Jose Hernandez, Terry Mulholland, Greg Maddux
New York Mets (3):Shawon Dunston, Todd Pratt, Turk Wendell
Texas Rangers (3): Mike Morgan, Rafael Palmeiro, Todd Zeile
Arizona Diamondbacks (2): Dan Plesac, Luis Gonzalez
Boston Red Sox (1): Rod Beck
Cleveland Indians (1): Paul Assenmacher
Houston Astros (1): Matt Mieske
New York Yankees (1): Joe Girardi

RESULT: YANKEES (1) DEF. BRAVES (3) -- THE FACTOR HOLDS

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1998's playoff teams were pretty much ex-Cub-free:

Cleveland Indians (2): Paul Assenmacher, Doug Jones
Boston Red Sox (1): Dennis Eckersley
Atlanta Braves (1): Greg Maddux
Houston Astros (1): Dave Clark
New Yok Yankees (1): Joe Girardi
San Diego Padres (1): Randy Myers
Texas Rangers (1): Todd Zeile

Ironically, the only team with a critical mass of ex-Cubs on their playoff roster in '98 was the Cubs themselves:

Chicago Cubs (3): Glenallen Hill, Mike Morgan, Terry Mulholland

As you may remember, they didn't make it to the World Series.

RESULT: YANKEES (1) DEF. PADRES (1) -- NO FACTOR

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The 1997 playoff teams ended up with the following ex-Cubs on their roster:

San Francisco Giants (4): Jose Vizcaino, Glenallen Hill, Damon Berryhill, Terry Mulholland
Baltimore Orioles (3): Jerome Walton, Rafael Palmeiro, Randy Myers
Seattle Mariners (3): Jamie Moyer, Heathcliff Slocumb, Rick Wilkins
New York Yankees (2): Joe Girardi, Rey Sanchez
Atlanta Braves (1): Greg Maddux
Cleveland Indians (1): Paul Assenmacher
Houston Astros (1): Luis Gonzalez
Florida Marlins (1): Alex Arias

Three of the six divisions were won by teams with critical masses of ex-Cubs. Before the playoffs, I wrote that chances were the Orioles and Mariners will drop Jerome Walton and Rick Wilkins, respectively, to drop below the 3-man threshold, which they did. The Giants, however, found themselves with way too many ex-Cubs. Even if they had made it to the World Series, there was no way they could have won.

It looked like the Altanta Braves learned their lesson from the previous season (see below); with Dwight Smith gone and Mike Bielecki on the shelf with shoulder surgery, they were well below the ex-Cub threshold. None of the other playoff teams had anything to worry about.

RESULT: MARLINS (1) DEF. INDIANS (1) -- NO FACTOR

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Remember 1996? Here are that year's playoff teams, with their ex-Cub contingent:

Baltimore Orioles (4): Randy Myers, Rafael Palmeiro, Mark Parent, Todd Zeile
Atlanta Braves (3): Mike Bielecki, Greg Maddux, Dwight Smith
St. Louis Cardinals (2): Dennis Eckersley, Danny Jackson
Cleveland Indians (2): Paul Assenmacher, Jose Vizcaino
New York Yankees (1): Joe Girardi
San Diego Padres (0)
Los Angeles Dodgers (0)
Texas Rangers (0)

Before the playoffs, I wrote the following: "So perhaps we have found the weak link in the Braves' armor -- 3 ex-Cubs is too many, even if one of them is Greg Maddux. Similarly, the Orioles' late-season acquisitions of Mark Parent and Todd Zeile may have in fact been a deadly mistake. The Cardinals, on the other hand, were wise to leave Mike Morgan off the post-season roster."

Well, whaddyaknow? The curse of the ex-Cubs strikes again. The Braves blow a 2-0 lead in the World Series and end up losing to the Yankees.

RESULT: YANKEES (1) DEF. BRAVES (4) -- THE FACTOR HOLDS

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1995

Atlanta Braves (2): Greg Maddux, Dwight Smith
Cincinnati Reds (2) Chuck McElroy, Jerome Walton
Colorado Rockies (1): Joe Girardi
Cleveland Indians (1): Paul Assenmacher
Seattle Mariners (1): Doug Strange
Boston Red Sox (0)
Los Angeles Dodgers (0)
New York Yankees (0)

RESULT: BRAVES (2) DEF. INDIANS (1) -- NO FACTOR

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1994: No playoffs

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1993

Atlanta Braves (3): Damon Berryhill, Jay Howell, Greg Maddux
Philadelphia Phillies (2): Danny Jackson, Mitch Williams
Chicago White Sox (1): George Bell
Toronto Blue Jays (1): Joe Carter

RESULT: BLUE JAYS (1) DEF. PHILLIES (2) -- NO FACTOR

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1992

Pittsburgh Pirates (3): Danny Jackson, Lloyd McClendon, Gary Varsho
Toronto Blue Jays (2): Joe Carter, Pat Tabler
Atlanta Braves (1): Damon Berryhill
Oakland Athletics (1): Dennis Eckersley

RESULT: BLUE JAYS (2) DEF. BRAVES (1) -- NO FACTOR

---

1991: The first World Series since 1963 to feature no ex-Cubs

Pittsburgh Pirates (4): Bill Landrum, Lloyd McClendon, Gary Varsho, Curtis Wilkerson
Toronto Blue Jays (2): Joe Carter, Pat Tabler
Atlanta Braves (0)
Minnesota Twins (0)

RESULT: TWINS (0) DEF. BRAVES (0) -- NO FACTOR

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1990

Oakland Athletics (3): Dennis Eckersley, Ron Hassey, Scott Sanderson
Pittsburgh Pirates (2): Bill Landrum, Carmelo Martinez
Boston Red Sox (1): Dennis Lamp
Cincinnati Reds (1): Billy Hatcher

RESULT: REDS (1) DEF. ATHLETICS (3) -- THE FACTOR HOLDS

 

Back to the Ex-Cub Factor

The phrase "ex-Cub factor" has been thrown around quite a bit. It was originally coined by writer and Cub fan Ron Berler, who wrote an article in 1981 stating that since the Yankees of that season had five ex-Cubs on their roster, they were doomed to lose the World Series if they got there. He was right -- they lost to the Dodgers in six games.

Up until 2001, the curse of the ex-Cub had been almost complete. Since the Cubs last won the NL pennant in 1945, only once had a team with three or more ex-Cubs won the World Series. That was the 1960 Pirates, and Berler even manages to explain that anomaly away in his article.

In 2001, though, the Arizona Diamondbacks won the championship with a healthy contingent of ex-Cubs: Mark Grace, Luis Gonzalez, Mike Morgan, and Miguel Batista. It would appear that the curse has been broken, and Mark Grace even said as much during a post-game interview. In response, all I can say is it's pretty interesting that the World Series to which this one has most been compared is the 1960 Series, won by the Pirates. In both cases, the National League team beat the New York Yankees in the bottom of the 9th inning of the 7th game of the Series. Coincidience? Or SOMETHING MORE???

You can now read the entire original Ex-Cub Factor article right here. Special thanks to Ron Berler, and as always to Mark McClusky, for bringing this website to Berler's attention.

2003 Update: How will the ex-Cub factor affect this year's playoff race? Well, here are the teams in the playoff races and the ex-Cub contingent on their rosters:

Atlanta (4): Will Cunnane, Matt Franco, Ray King, Greg Maddux
San Francisco (3): Benito Santiago, Tim Worrell, Eric Young
New York Yankees (2): Felix Heredia, Jon Lieber (DL)
Cubs (2): Doug Glanville, Mark Guthrie
Houston (2): Orlando Merced, Jose Vizcaino
Florida (1): Lenny Harris
Boston (1): Bill Mueller
Oakland (1): Micah Bowie (DL)
Minnesota: None

As usual, the Braves look to be in trouble when it comes to ex-Cubs in the playoffs. Maddux will be on the post-season roster, and I imagine Franco will be, too. That leaves the two relief pitchers. Cunnane has been effective in John Smoltz's absence, so he very well may make the playoff roster. If he does, the Braves are doomed. Likewise the Giants, who feature ex-Cubs at starting catcher and closer. Eric Young was acquired as insurance against Ray Durham's injury. With Durham healthy, Felipe Alou would be wise to leave Young off the October roster unless he wants to treat fans to a repeat of last year's heartbreak.

I've been tracking the ex-Cub factor for the past few years, and Carl Condon has gone back to the earliest days of the World Series to track The Factor. I have combined the work he and I have done and I am in the process of making it available on the Historical Ex-Cub Factor page. You'll see that the Curse of the Ex-Cub has held true almost perfectly throughout the years.

Is there a lesson to be learned from this? I think so. If you find your team in a pennant race, RELEASE ANYONE WHO USED TO BE ON THE CUBS. It's really pretty simple. Guys like Shawon Dunston and Mike Morgan might help you get into the playoffs, but you'd better ditch them come playoff time.

2002 UPDATE: Angels (one ex-Cub) defeat Giants (three ex-Cubs) in World Series. Ex-Cub Factor fulfilled for the 20th time.

You can click on a column heading to sort by position, name, jersey number, etc. Option Year info courtesy of the ever-resourceful Arizona Phil. Player ages are determined by the July 1st cutoff. For example, Jake Fox will turn 26 on July 20th, but 2008 will be considered his age 25 season by most statistical records. Service time is as of Opening Day 2008 and goes by the format of Years.Days meaning 2.055 is equal to 2 years and 55 days, where 172 days equals a full year.

(Column sorting tested on IE7, Firefox 1.0++ and Safari v3++. Javascript must be enabled for it to work properly. It does not work well if you're using any version of Safari below version 3).

Players with red backgrounds are currently on the 25-man active roster

Players with blue backgrounds are currently on the major league disabled list

 

Last Name	First Name	Positions	Jersey #	Bats	Throws	Age	Service Time	Option Years Left
Ascanio	Jose	RP	58	Right	Right	23	0.049	2 (See Note 1)
Cotts	Neal	RP	48	Left	Left	28	3.077	1 (See Note 5)
Dempster	Ryan	SP	46	Right	Right	31	9.063	0
Fox(60-day DL)	Chad	RP	44	Right	Right	37	7.096	0
Gaudin	Chad	RP/SP	57	Right	Right	57	3.004	0
Guzman	Angel	SP	37	Right	Right	26	1.095	1 (See Note 2 & 5)
Harben	Adam	SP	59	Right	Right	24	0.000	2
Harden	Rich	SP	40	Right	Right	26	4.074	3
Hart	Kevin	RP	22	Right	Right	25	0.027	3
Hill	Rich	SP	53	Left	Left	28	1.149	1
Howry	Bob	RP	62	Left	Right	34	8.079	0
Lieber(60-day DL)	Jon	SP	32	Left	Right	38	13.077	0
Lilly	Ted	SP	30	Left	Left	32	7.102	0
Marmol	Carlos	RP	49	Right	Right	25	1.084	1
Marquis	Jason	SP	21	Left	Right	29	7.012	0
Marshall	Sean	SP	45	Left	Left	25	1.132	2
Petrick	Billy	RP	56	Right	Right	24	0.021	3 (See Note 3)
Pignatiello	Carmen	RP	63	Right	Left	25	0.048	3
Samardzija	Jeff	SP	29	Right	Right	23	0.000	3 (See Note 4)
Wells	Randy	RP/SP	36	Right	Right	25	0.000	3 (See Note 4)
Wood	Kerry	RP	34	Right	Right	31	9.169	0
Wuertz	Michael	RP	43	Right	Right	29	3.007	1 (See Note 5)
Zambrano	Carlos	SP	38	Switch	Right	27	6.042	0
Blanco	Henry	C	24	Right	Right	36	9.136	0
Hill	Koyie	C	55	Switch	Right	30	1.150	0
Soto	Geovany	C	18	Right	Right	25	0.096	0
Cedeno	Ronny	SS/2B/3B/CF	5	Right	Right	25	2.029	0
DeRosa	Mark	2B/3B/RF/LF/1B	7	Right	Right	33	7.061	0
Fontenot	Mike	2B	17	Left	Right	28	0.139	1
Hoffpauir	Micah	1B/LF/RF	6	Left	Left	29	0.000	3
Lee	Derrek	1B	25	Right	Right	32	9.125	0
McGehee	Casey	3B/1B/C	27	Right	Right	26	0.000	3
Ramirez	Aramis	3B	16	Right	Right	30	8.111	0
Theriot	Ryan	SS/2B	2	Right	Right	28	1.118	2
Ward	Daryle	1B/RF/LF	33	Left	Left	33	8.044	0
Edmonds	Jim	CF	15	Left	Left	38	14.027	0
Fox	Jake	LF/RF/C	9	Right	Right	25	0.020	2
Fukudome	Kosuke	RF/CF	1	Left	Right	31	0.000	0
Fuld	Sam	CF/RF/LF	27	Left	Left	26	0.027	3
Johnson	Reed	CF/LF/RF	9	Right	Right	31	4.145	1
Pie	Felix	CF	20	Left	Left	23	0.118	1
Soriano	Alfonso	LF	12	Right	Right	32	7.079	0
Last Name	First Name	Position	Jersey #	Bats	Throws	Age	Service Time	Option Years Left

1 - Jose Ascanio has used two minor league options, but because he has spent only three “full seasons” on an active minor league or major league roster, he will be eligible for a 4th minor league option, as long as it is used prior to completing five full seasons.

2 - Angel Guzman has used three minor league options, but because he has not completed five “full seasons” on an active minor league or major league roster through the 2007 season, he gets a 4th minor league option, as long as it is used prior to completing five full seasons. (Guzman will likely spend most or all of the 2008 season on the DL rehabbing from TJ surgery, so he will almost certainly have the 4th minor league option available again in 2009).

3 - Billy Petrick has used one minor league option, but because he has spent only two “full seasons” on an active minor league or major league roster, he will be eligible for a 4th minor league option as long as it is used prior to completing five full seasons.

4 - Jeff Samardzija has used one minor league option, but because he has spent only one “full season” on an active minor league or major league roster, he will be eligible for a 4th minor league option as long as it is used prior to completing five full seasons.

5 - Players with at least three years of MLB service time or players who have been previously outrighted in their career can refuse an Outright Assignment to the minors, and players with at least five years of MLB service time can refuse an Optional Assignment to the minors. As of Spring Training 2008, Neal Cotts, Angel Guzman, and Michael Wuertz qualify. For further info on the current Cubs roster situation and upcoming milestone dates, visit Arizona Phil's latest update.

There are also certain players with less than five years of MLB service time who must first clear MLB Optional Assignment Waivers before they can be optioned to the minors. Players reach this point when they hit the third anniversary of being added to a regular season 25-man roster, or the two-year anniversary if the player spent one full season on optional assignment to the minors prior to being added to a 25-man regular season roster for the first time, or the one-year anniversary if the player spent two full seasons on optional assignment to the minors prior to being added to a 25-man regular season roster for the first time.

Optional Assignment Waivers are revocable the first time they are requested in a given waiver period, and irrevocable the second time they are requested in the same waiver period. The waivers can be requested at any time, and the club does not necessarily have to option the player to the minors once the player clears waivers, because once a player clears Optional Assignment Waivers, the waivers are good for the entire waiver period. Because these waivers are revocable, getting a player through Optional Assignment Waivers is usually just a formality, but another GM could make a nuisance claim if he were so inclined.

60 Day DL - A player placed on the 60-day disabled list frees up a spot on the team's 40-man roster.

Chicago Cubs Depth Chart
Pos.	Starter	Backup	Backup	Minors	Minors
C	Geovany Soto	Henry Blanco	Koyie Hill	Tony Richie
1B	Derrek Lee	Daryle Ward	Micah Hoffpauir
2B	Mike Fontenot	Mark DeRosa	Ronny Cedeno	Bobby Scales
SS	Ryan Theriot	Ronny Cedeno	Mike Fontenot	Luis Figueroa
3B	Aramis Ramirez	Mark DeRosa	Casey McGehee
LF	Alfonso Soriano	Reed Johnson	Mark DeRosa	Jason Dubois	Josh Kroeger
CF	Jim Edmonds	Reed Johnson	Felix Pie	Andre Torres	Sam Fuld
RF	Mark DeRosa	Kosuke Fukudome	Reed Johnson	Josh Kroeger
Starting Pitchers
1	Ryan Dempster (R)
2	Rich Harden (R)
3	Carlos Zamrbanro (R)
4	Ted Lilly (L)
5	Jason Marquis (R)
In Case of Emergency	Sean Marshall (L)
In Case of Emergency	Jon Lieber (R)
In Case of Emergency	Jeff Samardzija (R)
Relief Pitchers
1	Kerry Wood (R)
2	Carlos Marmol (R)
3	Chad Gaudin (R)
4	Jeff Samardzija (R)
5	Bob Howry (R)
6	Neal Cotts (L)
7	Mike Wuertz (R)
8	Angel Guzman (R)
9	Sean Marshall (L)
10	Kevin Hart (R)
11	Randy Wells (R)
Disabled List
RP	Chad Fox (R) (ulnar nerve - 60 day)
RP	Rich Hill (L) (back spasms)
RP	Jon Lieber (R) (foot, arm - 60 day)