Rank the reasons behind the Cubs 2009 demise from most important (1) to least (10). Thanks to reader dc60124 for the idea. Your choices after the jump with explanations or just go ahead and vote.
The Bullpen - 5th most losses in the NL, 5th least amount of wins. 18 blown saves ranks in the middle of the pack. Heilman and Gregg gave up 21 HR's between them. Carlos Marmol made Mitch Williams look like a control artist.
Lou Piniella - Started offseason by demanding a left-handed power bat that proved to be the wrong Jinga piece to move. Replaced Aramis Ramirez for 50 games with the likes of Aaron Miles, Ryan Freel and Bobby Scales while hot-hitting Jake Fox sat. Never got through to Milton Bradley. Stuck with Kevin Gregg in closer role all year, killed a pony in front of some small children....
Aramis Ramirez injury - Cubs were 6-2 in May before injury hit, went 24-26 in the 50 games he missed, actually gained a half game in the standings. They did score lowest monthly total in runs in June (3.56 R/G) than any other month, May was second worst at 4.32 R/G and just 3.95 R/G once he hit the disabled list that month.
All the Other Injuries - Zambrano x2, Lilly, Dempster, Harden, Soto, R. Johnson x2, Waddell, Guzman, Miles, Freel, Patton, C. Fox, A. Blanco. Plus non-DL injuries to Bradley and Derrek Lee along with a few others.
Milton Bradley - nutcase, combative, didn't bring any power with him, killed 5 innocent people who looked at him the wrong way.
Alfonso Soriano - 85 OPS+, one of three worst regulars in baseball this year by Fangraphs numbers, refused to sit despite being hurt, defense made Adam Dunn go, "woah, you suck".
Geovany Soto - looked out of shape all year, home run balls last year died on warning track this year, OPS was in the high 500's in May, warmed up to a low 700's by July before hitting the disabled list.
Mike Fontenot - Godenot was anything but, essentially hovering around a .700 OPS most of the season and playing most of the time due to other injuries and Lou sleeping in the dugout.
Jim Hendry - The Brown touch, almost every move turned to sh** for him this year from trading away Marquis, Wuertz, and DeRosa and acquiring Gregg and Bradley. Willfully went along with haphazard left-handed plan, then apparently did little to smooth Bradley's transition to media-frenzy Chicago, then waited until far too late to suspend supposed clubhouse cancer. Ran over old lady outside Wrigley Field...
Sam Zell and Delay in Sale - Cubs had plenty of money to spend in offseason but rudderless ship during season made things difficult for Hendry to adapt in-season.
Honorable Mentions: Cardinals suprisingly good, the Media, the Fans, Transmission, Larry Rothschild, Scalpers, Goats, Curses, Parachat Behavior
Comments
Re: What Went Wrong?
Sorry, late to the party on this one but:
1- Soriano. He's supposed to be one of the top offensive threats on this team, and when he's on, he can carry a team. That simply didn't happen this year.
2- ARam's Injury. Again, losing the biggest bat in the lineup for a major portion of the season will always be a killer. When combined with #1, there just wasn't enough offense left.
3- Soto. Should have been another offensive leader to help fill in the gaps from #1 and #2. A slump is forgiveable, but simply being out of shape is not.
4- Hendry. He made a lot of bad moves in the offseason, and predictably, they mostly blew up in his face. He allowed the team to get worse in the offseason, even before underperformances and injuries. Having said that, he still did build the core of this team which still will have a respectable 85ish win season, one year removed from having the best record in the NL. If Soriano, ARam, and Soto had met expectations, this still would have been a team in the playoff race.
5- Lou. Hendry has always been a GM to get what his manager wants, so he needs to share in the blame. Hendry gets more of it though, because he should be calling the shots. For Lou's more specific responsiblities, his handling of the issues that came up during the season were mediocre at best.
6- Milton. Yet another failure in the revolving RF spot. I'm starting to think that Sosa is to RF what Santo was to 3b before 2003. His behavior speaks for itself, and while his performances didn't help much, they aren't what caused this team to come up short.
7- Other Injuries. These would have been manageable, if it were not for the other problems. Still, they certainly didn't help.
8- Bullpen. Sorry, I'm still of the school that if you expect bullpens to win games for you, you've already lost. Even the best ones are going to have severe ups and downs. Obviously, there were some disappointments here that cost some games, and this was not a strong point.
9- Zell. With the economy, I don't think the payroll was going to expand much regarless of ownership. Maybe this would have allowed for a midseason deal or some better offseason moves, but not a big facor.
10- Fontenot. Expecting him to replace DeRosa's numbers was overly optimistic. He did worse than he should have, but counting on him to be a major factor in the teams success would be the bigger problem here.
Re: What Went Wrong?
lenandbob: Ramirez out tonight with a sore left shoulder.
Re: What Went Wrong?
Two months too late, but...
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CarrieMuskat: cubs Kevin Gregg shutdown for rest of season because of crack in rib cartilage. He joins Harden, Guzman and Soriano on sidelines
Re: What Went Wrong?
buy him a gold watch already and let's move on...
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maybe Lou will get hurt next year instead of the p layers and solve the gold watch problem
Re: What Went Wrong?
http://blogs.denverpost.com/rockies/2009/09/28/bar...
whoops, Barmes didn't make the catch on Sunday...
Re: What Went Wrong?
so the magic number is still 2 in our alternative universe? Yes. There's still a chance. Keep hope alive.
Re: What Went Wrong?
The difference between atmosphere and Chemistry...
Tom Skilling, you're the best!
Re: What Went Wrong?
six ten people have to work harder...was he thinking about Fontenut?
Re: What Went Wrong? Bad Atmosphere!!!
ESPN 1000, Waddle and Pat Boyle:
...all things considered, has this been your most disappointing season as a manager in the bigs?
"No, We won two divisions in a row and the expectations were high. We made quite a few changes, 10 in all. Different look in the bullpen, the lineup our bench. Things just didn't work out. "
"We've had injuries to key people and for long, long periods of time and we didn't have the depth to sustain that. Our minor league system has some pitching that we've been able to use here at the big league level and actually performed quite well"
"but player position wise, the good players that we have, that will be future Chicago Cubs (in the minors) are at AA and below"
"we got hurt with Ramirez we didn't have a replacement there, we struggled, we finally got Baker, and Baker did a nice job"
"our catcher, we didn't have much depth there, thank God that Hill stepped in and did a decent job, but Soto was out for a month. Our top pitchers, Lilly been on the DL, Zambrano twice, Dempster's been on the DL, Harden.
"...we've hung in there but the expectations by the media and everybody was that we were supposed to win the division hands down. At the trading deadline we were in first place. The Cardinals went out and did some things that blew the division apart. Getting Holliday, Smoltz, Lugo, DeRosa and pulled away from everybody."
"This club isn't very far away from having another good go at this thing, doing a couple of things over the winter, believe me, we'll be right back"
Waddle: Is there any chance you go home in this offseason and change your mind and say I've had enough?
"I don't think so. I've said I'll do the final year of my contract and that's what I plan on doing. I came here to win. We've had three years over .500 which hasn't happened in a long, long time. In the 3 years that I've been here, we won 250 games quicker than any other manager in the last 70 years. I like the city. I like the Cub organization. It's a fun place to play at Wrigley. We're going to have a new owner who's going to bring some TLC to this equation"
"...we need some bounce back years from Soriano, he played with that sore knee for awhile, we need Soto to do better, and we need a nice rbi bat and next year the Cubs can get back to where they were two years ago."
***Waddell: The acquisition of Milton Bradley didn't work, How much of a distraction/disruption in the clubhouse was he?
"Our GM had to do a tough task of sending him home and it wasn't very pleasant for him. The big thing with Milton this year was he drove in 40 runs. Look, we needed a big bat to put in the middle part of our lineup and we thought that Milton would be the one. It just didn't work out for whatever reason and we move forward from there. Now we try to find somebody else and I know Jim will try very hard to do that."
next...questions on Zambrano: (paraphrasing) who needs to work harder as he gets older. He learned a valuable lesson. He's been working hard for the last month or 6 weeks. I had a similar message for Randy Johnson, people who are six-ten need to work harder than people who are six-three.
on fans and expectations...when you lose it's gloom and doom right away, it's not just the fans but the media gets in on it. The good teams invariably win in the end. It doesn't happen every year and you gotta stay healthy. I new coming out of camp we weren't very deep and several people didn't have very good years. We're going to score 150 runs less than last year. Soriano and Soto need to have comeback years and we're going to add one more big bat.
can you find a spot for Jake Fox?
The young man can swing the bat, he has good bat speed and has home run power. His best position is 1B but he can play a little OF and 3B. He needs to work on that.
mentions young pitchers, Berg, Caridad, Wells. Then Fuld, Fox, Colvin (we're resting him the remainder of the way). I like the future of this organization.
Boyle: Did this year change your mind about clubhouse chemistry?
"What's even more important than chemistry is clubhouse atmosphere and the atmosphere wasn't very good this year.
Boyle: can one player create that?
"I don't want to blame it on one player, two players or five players. Last year we had the best clubhouse atmosphere and I had some real good clubhouse atmosphere with the teams I had in Seattle and good chemistry and last year here, this year here the media has reminded us that our atmosphere and chemistry hasn't been as good. It is important. The most important thing is playing well on the field. If you play really really well on the field, the atmosphere and chemistry improve. This year we struggled. The most we got over .500 was 9 games, probably the lowest was 3-4 games under .500. We've been a little bit above .500 all year, hopefully we can finish strong this week and set the tone for next year ."
Re: What Went Wrong? Bad Atmosphere!!!
I'll take contradictions in the same interview for $300
"we didn't have a replacement there(Ramirez)"
"(Fox)The young man can swing the bat, he has good bat speed and has home run
power. His best position is 1B but he can play a little OF and 3B. He
needs to work on that."
buy him a gold watch already and let's move on...
Re: What Went Wrong? Bad Atmosphere!!!
One thing that's pretty obvious with Lou is you can tell who has a future on his team by looking at playing time. Jake Fox has started how many games out of the last 30? Colvin gets a dozen ABs then is shown to his seat on the bench. And the good news - Aaron Miles has now shown up on milk cartons around Chicagoland.
Lou (and Hendry) are coming back next year unless Ricketts comes to his senses, and we can count on plenty of Lee, Ramirez, Soriano, Theriot, Soto, Fukudome, and Baker in the lineup with Z, Lilly, Dempster, Wells anchoring a rotation for Marmol to close. Maybe they can trade or shed enough payroll to get that big RBI guy for Lou. I don't know if all this is good or bad, but it all signals no Jake Fox as a starter and goodbye Milton.
As usual, the return goods will no doubt be a low class A pitcher coming off Tommy John surgery.
Re: What Went Wrong? Bad Atmosphere!!!
It would be a real interesting analysis to estimate how many more games the Cubs would have won with 50-60 more games of Ramirez in the lineup rather than the replacement level play we wound up getting. You could probably do it with one of the Jamesian algorithms. In fact, it would be interesting to do the same thing with Dempster and Lilly. Even with the bad play from Soriano, Bradley, Gregg, Soto, etc. those injuries might have meant 4 or 5 wins.
Re: Ramirez Injury
Ramirez was worth 2.4 Wins above replacement this year according to Fangraphs/WAR in 80 games, he was 5.1 and 4.7 the last 2 years, so there's 2 wins right I'm guessing.
Miles had a negative WAR value on the year as did Freel, Scales at 0.5
Pretty to safe assumption that it was at least worth 2-3 wins to the team, that could made all the differene in the world in August and Sept though...
Re: Ramirez Injury
At the risk of opening an old sore subject, Cubs are two below their Pythagorean W-L and 16-22 in one run games. But I won't say it's bad luck because that makes people mad.
Dodgers are 5 below their Pythagorean, which is 98-59. Atlanta is 27-21 in one run games, Dodgers are 28-21 and the Marlins are 27-19. Marlins are 5 above their Pythagorean.
Cardinals +1
Braves -4
Colorado +1
Giants +1
Re: Ramirez Injury
that's impressive to be 5 games below your expected w/l and be good in 1-run games...or 4 games if you're the Braves.
speaking of Dodgers, I think they caught something from the 2008 Cubs, hot start, relatively easy season, fading badly into the playoffs...
Re: What Went Wrong?
JJ Hardy and Jeremy Hermida need to be the 2 big offseason moves. Payroll should stay level bringing them in and getting a little Milton relief. Especially with Heilman,Gregg and Harden coming off the books.
Will likely cost
Marshall
Stevens
Colvin
Tony Thomas
Andrew Cashner
Type of package total. But seems the easiest way of fixing this roster without blowing up the budget. Hopefully Hendry is astute enough to make it happen.
Re: What Went Wrong?
Why would the Cubs want Jeremy Hermida? I wouldn't trade any of those players straight up for Hermida. Hermida is simply not very good.
Hardy would intrigue me, but I don't see the Brewers trading Hardy within the division, and especially to the Cubs, anytime soon.
Re: What Went Wrong?
Hermida has always been thought of as an uber talented player.
Hermida is still only 25. Put up a 296/369/501 line 2 years ago in one of the notoriously worst hitters parks in Baseball.
It would be a chance to actually buy low on somebody who should be entering their prime. Absolute worst case you should get 270/350/450 with 25ish HR power and fair RF defense. All for a year to year arbitration figure of about 5 million.
What's the downside?
Re: What Went Wrong?
Absolute worst case you should get 270/350/450 with 25ish HR power and fair RF defense.
Really? Because here is his line over the last two years:
.253/.335/.400 OPS: .734
Ave HR: 15
That is well below your "absolute worst case" scenario.
EDIT: And that career year he had? He also had a .353 BABIP that year, well above his BABIP over the rest of his career.
Re: What Went Wrong?
You have to figure that the ballpark upgrade from Florida to Wrigley would be substantial.
dude is 1 year older than Tyler Colvin. If we could trade those 2 and maybe throw in a bullpen prospect, what's the downside? Surely we aren't drinking the Colvin kool-aide?
Re: What Went Wrong?
You have to figure that the ballpark upgrade from Florida to Wrigley would be substantial.
Not necessarily. He has been quite mediocre on the road this year too. Though he was good on the road last year (and just plain awful at home).
Derrek Lee's numbers went down in his first year, moving from Florida to Wrigley.
Re: What Went Wrong?
Jeremy Hermida statline at Wrigley since 2006
333/ .357/ .852/ 1.209
Obviously a small sample size.
Someone come up with a better RF solution and lay it out there. I'm just throwing out REALISTIC solutions.
Matt Holliday or Jason Bay for 8/136 probably are NOT realistic solutions. Just sayin
Re: What Went Wrong?
Jeremy Hermida statline at Wrigley since 2006
Please don't tell me that you think that this is relevant.
Is that why you want him? Because he had hit a few home runs at Wrigley?
Re: What Went Wrong?
I don't know who we get. I just think he will be the best candidate considering the likely payroll constraints we will be under. I see him as a buy low candidate, with really high upside.
Some dudes need a change of venue to thrive. Remember all the knocks on Aramis when we got him from Pittsburgh? DLee was always a chronic underachiever in Florida. Not saying Hermida is Aram or DLee. Just saying we bought low on those guys at the right time. High end prospects who's reps dimmed playing in bad environs.
Re: What Went Wrong?
Or platoon the guy with Jake Fox next year.
splits vs RHP since 2006
.270/ .344/ .439/ .783 At Joe Robbie Caverns no less.
Re: What Went Wrong?
Milton Bradley, I hear he's available
Re: What Went Wrong?
Realistic
Re: What Went Wrong?
Don't tell me the Bobby Scales era is over.
Re: What Went Wrong?
he'll be 26 next year
maybe 2 years ago was the outlier
and the downside is the prospects you have to give up and playing time you have to give him and passing up on a better player...
Re: What Went Wrong?
I sort of get the Hardy love, I don't get the Hermida love though. Is there a good version of Hermida that is interested in playing baseball hiding somewhere?
Re: What Went Wrong?
Not only is there a good version of him, but we already have him on the roster, serving a suspension.
Re: What Went Wrong?
I may be the only one who listed the Delay of Sale as the primary factor in the Cubs poor season. I'm adopting the mindset that the season was on the wrong track from the the beginning. The poor off-season deals and the poor mid-season deals were all driven by the Sale hanging like a poisonous gas cloud over Wrigley.
I have to think that Hendry's hands were tied by the uncertainty of the Sale - perhaps he could not be as aggressive as he would have liked? Perhaps the Sale was a deterrent to available top-shelf talent?
At any rate, the roster that was constructed - in large part due to off-season and mid-season moves - lacked chemistry, heart, and the will to win. I think that the symptoms of such a team are inconsistency and the inability to keep positive momentum. One only needs to look at the Cubs streaks and skids during the year for evidence of that.
Someone else commented, and I agree, that the Sale was the furthest thing from the field, which is where the problems happened - but baseball is as much mental as physical. This year, we had some real mental cases on the field - and that was because the organization put them there.
Re: What Went Wrong?
How about "Cardinals win 90+ games"?
If the Cards were on pace to win 85, this is a very interesting week.
**sob**
Re: What Went Wrong?
Sorry -- this was covered above.
But, the Cubs would have needed to win probably 93 games to keep up with the Cards.
Not easy, even without the injuries.
Re: What Went Wrong?
per ESPN 1000 website (no person is taking credit for the interpretation of Piniella's words...but their is an audio link (below) starting with Lou promoting Special Olympics.
Chicago Cubs manager Lou Piniella said Tuesday he's looking forward to adding a "big bat" to the lineup next season, which could mean that disgruntled outfielder Milton Bradley has played his last game for the Cubs.
http://sports.espn.go.com/chicago/mlb/news/story?i...
the Lou quotes:
"Our general manager Jim Hendry had to do a tough task of sending him home [on Sept. 20], and I'm sure it wasn't very pleasant for him," Piniella said on the "Waddle & Silvy" show on ESPN 1000. "The big thing with Milton this year was the fact he drove in 40 runs.
"We needed a big bat to put in the middle part of our lineup, and we thought Milton would be the one. And it just didn't work out, for whatever reason. So we move forward from there and now we try to find somebody else. And I know Jim will work very hard at it."
Re: What Went Wrong?
not batting the best slugger on the team 1st would be a nice start...seems that is on tap for 2010, though.
dlee/aram/soriano/soto...problem solved lou. woo...shirtless beer drinking with buddies in the manager's office time!
Re: What Went Wrong?
There was an article a couple of weeks ago (or maybe not quite that far back) where Lou said Soriano wouldn't be betting leadoff next year.
And did you miss when Soriano was taken out of the leadoff spot this year? We ALL realize it wasn't done quickly enough for you, though.
Re: What Went Wrong?
i totally didn't miss it...i was confused about why he was batting 6th to give fontenot, bradley, and fuku ABs in front of him, though. not like that's a bigass deal or anything.
Re: What Went Wrong?
see comment #43
Re: What Went Wrong?
Twins-Tigers in a death match...3-2 final.
Twins got 2 in the top of 10th, on an O Cabrera single after Brandon Lyon threw two wild pitches with Span on from a single, then walks Mauer and Cuddyer with some sac flies for the 2nd run
Granderson leads off bottom of 10th with a HR...two outs, M Cabrera for the...GO 5-3 and Nathan Save.
Game two of a DH later. Twins tie if they win.
11 of 24
http://www.sporcle.com/games/winleaders_mlb1990s.php
gonna go beat myself up now...
Re: 11 of 24
That was evil...fair but evil.
13 out of 24.
Bow to your superior.
;-)
Re: 11 of 24
I think I tried Pedro Martinez like 10 times thinking it had to be a mistake :)
of course Martinez gave me Ramon which was luck...
Re: 11 of 24
12 for me. Did the same thing with Martinez.
Re: 11 of 24
I typed in Martinez for Pedro also.
Did anyone miss a pitcher in the first column?
If so turn in you Baseball Trivia card.
Re: 11 of 24
I missed two, I blame my kids somehow...
Re: 11 of 24
I missed one of the Cubs... though I tried Danny Jackson.
I probably would have done better hand I not spent the first minute and a half thinking it was pitchers in this decade.
Re: What Went Wrong?
was a serial killer in a past life...
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That'll help his free agent status. Hand meet Yankee glove?
otherwise if he can QB, maybe Al Davis and the Raiders?
I can only assume
Jason Marquis was a serial killer in a past life...
via Rotoworld...
Tracy Ringolsby of FOXSports.com reports that if the Rockies earn the NL wild card, Jason Marquis may not make the postseason rotation.
Marquis earned his first All-Star nod this season and went 14-8 with a 3.58 ERA over his first 21 starts, however he is just 1-4 with a 5.48 ERA over his last seven starts, making his inclusion in a potential postseason rotation questionable, especially with the return of Aaron Cook last Friday. He has two more chances to get it together, facing Brewers on Tuesday and the Dodgers in the regular season finale on Sunday.
Re: I can only assume
"Marquis earned his first All-Star nod this season and went 14-8 with a 3.58 ERA over his first 21 starts"
Wow, 22 decisions in his first 21 starts?? Is that the baseball equivalent of creating matter?
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