2015 HOF Ballots in: Johnson, Martinez, Smoltz, and Biggio Elected!

Submitted by WISCGRAD on Tue, 01/06/2015 - 1:02pm

Randy Johnson (97.3%), Pedro Martinez (91.1%), John Smoltz (82.9%), and Craig Biggio (82.7%) were all elected to the Hall of Fame today. Mike Piazza came up just a bit short with 69.9%.

This is the first time four players have been elected in one year since 1955 (Dimaggio, Lyons, Vance, and Hartnett) and only the third time ever, following 1947 (Hubbell, Frisch, Cochrane, Grove) and the inaugural 1936 class (Cobb, Ruth, Wagner, Mathewson, Johnson). Four were also elected in 1939, but Lou Gehrig was admitted on a special ballot, not the normal writer’s ballot.

Looking ahead at 2016, Ken Griffey Jr. is the only clear first-ballot Hall of Famer who will arrive on the ballot. Trevor Hoffman will certainly get some significant votes, but it is always difficult to predict how voters will treat closers. Beyond those two, the best of the rest include Billy Wagner, Garret Anderson, Jason Kendall, Troy Glaus, and Jim Edmonds. I think Edmonds deserves some serious discussion, but given the fate of Larry Walker and others, I doubt he will get much support. Given the gains made this year by Piazza, I would expect him to be in next year with Griffey. That would make at least 9 Hall of Famers elected in a 3-year span, something we haven't seen since 1956. Nine were elected from 1954-56 (9 total were also elected from 1953-55). The only other time more than 7 players were elected in a 3-year span was the first two years (1936 and 1937) where 3 more joined the inaugural 5.   

 

Tags: 
Hall of Fame
2015 Hall of Fame
2016 Hall of Fame

Comments

Submitted by Cubster  on Tue, 01/06/2015 - 1:07pm  
Sosa stays on the ballot, 6.6%

Submitted by Cubster  on Tue, 01/06/2015 - 1:08pm  
Lee Smith 30% Jason Schmidt 3.44% (imaginary votes, actually 0.00%)

Submitted by Rob G.  on Tue, 01/06/2015 - 1:12pm  

55% for Raines

Submitted by jacos  on Tue, 01/06/2015 - 1:21pm  
biggio is better than Raines and Piazza? Cmon

Submitted by WISCGRAD  on Tue, 01/06/2015 - 1:21pm  

Well, I was pretty close with my predictions on most. I clearly undersold John Smoltz, and predicted a bit lower with Pedro. I also thought Edgar and Mussina would climb a bit more than they did. But otherwise, I was within 4-5% on everyone else on the ballot, including the climbs for Schilling, Raines, and Piazza. Piazza should be in next year. Raines will climb again, but might run out of time. Next year's weak group of first-timers might help him though. Schilling should continue to climb and has a chance then of building a case over 4-6 years and getting elected.  But Bagwell looks stuck, and no movement for Mussina or Edgar likely means they won't ever get serious consideration from the writers. Likewise, Clemens and Bonds made no move in light of the 15 to 10 year change, so it seems unlikely they will ever get in this way.

Submitted by John Beasley  on Tue, 01/06/2015 - 6:42pm  
I was way off on Raines. I thought there was a real groundswell this year, but it turns out it was just his supporters panicking because it is now evident he won't do it in 10 years. A real shame.

Submitted by Cubnut  on Tue, 01/06/2015 - 1:24pm  

Wiscgrad--Great to see your posts. Do you have a Twitter handle? I'll include it when tweeting links to your posts.

Submitted by WISCGRAD  on Tue, 01/06/2015 - 2:33pm  

Actually I don't; because of my job I try to keep a low profile with social media/networking.

Submitted by Carlito  on Tue, 01/06/2015 - 2:57pm  
You can easily make a fairly anonymous Twitter persona just for your baseball articles.

Submitted by WISCGRAD  on Tue, 01/06/2015 - 3:41pm  

Yeah, I could, but my students would almost certainly find it eventually! But I don't think I need it anyway; fans of TCR will see my posts and that's all I am shooting for.  

Submitted by crunch  on Tue, 01/06/2015 - 3:03pm  
welcome to the internet incognito club. because of my job i keep a strict anon profile on agriculture forums/blogs and because i write for a baseball blog that's not very casual in it's approach, i'm "crunch" here and "someone else" elsewhere...neither of which carry my real name. i've got over 2 decades of innerwebs under my belt and no one's dox'd me yet. it's worth it to me to keep lives separate, even different internet "lives" though some don't worry about it.

Submitted by WISCGRAD  on Tue, 01/06/2015 - 1:44pm  

Looking further ahead, it might look like this:

2016: Griffey, Piazza

2017: Ivan Rodriguez (could Tim Raines gain enough next year to join him in his last year?)

2018: Chipper Jones, Jim Thome

2019: Mariano Rivera, Schilling, Roy Halladay (maybe, or is he more like Schilling and has to build?)

2020: Derek Jeter

I think Bagwell still has a chance to build and jump in there in the later years. Other newcomers over those years to keep an eye on: Trevor Hoffman (2016), Vladimir Guerrero and Jorge Posada (2017), Scott Rolen and Omar Vizquel (2018), Todd Helton (2019).

Submitted by Dusty Baylor  on Tue, 01/06/2015 - 2:17pm  
Mussina?

Submitted by WISCGRAD  on Tue, 01/06/2015 - 2:31pm  

Would love to see it, but 20.3% to 24.6% in years 1 and 2 doesn't bode well for him. The biggest jump on the ballot this year was 10% for Schilling. Mussina would have to do that 5 years in a row to reach 75% and get in by 2020. Difficult to see a climb like that for him. 

Submitted by Dusty Baylor  on Tue, 01/06/2015 - 2:35pm  
Silly really......that Smoltz waltzes in....and Mussina can't get a sniff. I'm not saying Smoltz DOESN'T deserve it, but saying that Mussina does too. Oh well...

Submitted by Rob G.  on Tue, 01/06/2015 - 4:42pm  

http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/10567674...

good stuff...

Submitted by crunch  on Tue, 01/06/2015 - 4:57pm  
the yearly "let guys other than writers vote" articles and tv appearances was really heavy this year. i think the system is a bit jacked and they definitely need to expand the voting pool to non-writers, but some dudes pretending that the HOF is nothing but a stats game isn't going to get very far. there's a reason bonds/clemens isn't the HOF and it isn't because sportswriters are butthurt about something personal. playing the game and being enshrined in the game's HOF are 2 very different things. speaking of butthurt...what is with the hyper-emotional last 2 paragraphs in this linked article? my god...he outdid what brian kenny did on MLB network last night.

Submitted by Charlie  on Tue, 01/06/2015 - 5:07pm  
playing the game and being enshrined in the game's HOF are 2 very different things. That line of thinking might lead one to believe the players in the hall are all sterling or that baseball's greats are defined by their morals. Cobb and Ruth would've done steroids if they were available (OK, I can't prove that), not to mention their performances are enabled in part by segregated leagues. It's not synonymous, but the pretension of a clean HOF is an extension of the pretension that professional baseball isn't founded upon exploitation of various kinds.

Submitted by crunch  on Tue, 01/06/2015 - 5:16pm  
cobb wouldn't have a shot of getting in if he played in our era...hell, he wouldn't even be employed. the HOF evolves it's morals...whether people think some are a step back vs a step forward. i'm not saying the HOF is clean. there's a LOT of racist, sexist, violent, drug convicted (hey fergie), and other undesirable people in the HOF. i'm saying the HOF establishes it morals according to the times. ...let the vet's committee put them in. they'll do it eventually. they're not banned. the HOF is the all-star game of retirement...it's a neat side-show.

Submitted by Rob G.  on Tue, 01/06/2015 - 5:40pm  

the daily say something stupid comment from crunch...

Submitted by crunch  on Tue, 01/06/2015 - 5:40pm  
nice to hear from you, too.

Submitted by WISCGRAD  on Tue, 01/06/2015 - 5:35pm  

On another note, the "here's a vote for a good guy I covered" always irks me. Darin Ertad (1), Tom Gordon (2), Aaron Boone (2), Troy Percival (4) received votes. And none of those voters were of course among the 35% of the public ballots (or those making their ballots public lied). Take it seriously or stop doing it.

Submitted by crunch  on Tue, 01/06/2015 - 5:51pm  
i'm not a fan of that one, either. that said, i enjoy the clusterfuck that is the HOF voting process...there's a set of hard rules that can be played rather loosely and it moves to the whim of the leadership and morals of the times. don't like PEDs? don't vote em... don't think anyone deserves 100% vote even though they're a sure 1st-rounder? don't vote em... that .260/.310/.350 hitting no-HOF-chance SS that shared a taxi with you and paid for it...vote em!

Submitted by John Beasley  on Tue, 01/06/2015 - 6:42pm  
Nice post, and great job on the predictions.

Submitted by Rob Richardson  on Wed, 01/07/2015 - 9:18am  
Is there any updated news on the Cubs' efforts to purchase some of the roof top buildings?

Submitted by QuietMan  on Wed, 01/07/2015 - 9:47am  
Saw this on the twitters last night. I don't know anything about who they are. Wrigleyville Nation @wrigleyvillenat · 14h 14 hours ago #cubs on verge of purchasing at least three rooftops. More likely to follow.

Submitted by jacos  on Wed, 01/07/2015 - 9:53am  
Stupid question- Do they own only the roof top or the whole building?

Submitted by Rob Richardson  on Wed, 01/07/2015 - 1:06pm  
Not really a stupid question. I believe they own the entire buildings.

Submitted by jacos  on Wed, 01/07/2015 - 1:12pm  
See I was thinking it was a different entity and then not have to deal with leasers/tenants. I know they would have a real estate company handle it.

Submitted by QuietMan  on Fri, 01/09/2015 - 10:45am  
Sounds like they did purchase some buildings. ------------ The new sign arrangement shafts rooftop owners who weren’t willing to sell, but will “restore the views of the Rooftops the Cubs contracted to purchase,” say the owners, who want a Cook County Judge to stop the signs from going up. http://chicago.suntimes.com/baseball/7/71/276...

Submitted by Rob Richardson  on Fri, 01/09/2015 - 10:55am  
I don't see where they have the ability to stop the sign from going up. They may be entitled to monetary damages, but the sign doesn't cause them irreparable harm.

Submitted by JoePepitone  on Fri, 01/09/2015 - 2:11pm  
That's also been my take on it all along. Take your money damages (if any) and go away.

Submitted by WISCGRAD  on Wed, 01/07/2015 - 10:32am  

Yankees sign Stephen Drew to a one-year contract for $5 million with another $1.5 million in incetives?  Yikes! Seems like a huge waste of money to me, glad the Cubs steered well clear of that one. For the same price ($5 million) the Phillies picked up Aaron Harang in what could be a nice move; he pitched 200 innings last year with a 3.57 ERA.

Submitted by Rob G.  on Wed, 01/07/2015 - 2:34pm  

http://espn.go.com/blog/chicago/cubs/post/_/i...

Two scouts disagreed on Castillo’s worth on the market. One highlighted the lack of good catchers around the league and Castillo's potential at the plate -- at least against lefties -- and thought the Cubs could still get a decent prospect or bullpen arm for him. Another said the fact that the Cubs need to move him, combined with his deficiencies, would only net them a second- or third-tier kind of prospect.

Submitted by Ryno  on Wed, 01/07/2015 - 2:53pm  
I like how they have Travis Wood as the ERA leader (5.03) as if higher ERAs are better. Silly.

Submitted by Rob G.  on Wed, 01/07/2015 - 2:49pm  

http://deadspin.com/curt-schilling-says-being...


Curt Schilling...great pitcher, but one dumb-ass m********ker.

Submitted by crunch  on Wed, 01/07/2015 - 3:09pm  
almost all of baseball is republicans...hell, his entire rsox 04 world series team was republicans except for (oddly...or not) gabe kapler. something about giving up 40+% of your pay to a slew of federal, state, local, entertainment, and sports taxes that does that to players.

Submitted by WISCGRAD  on Wed, 01/07/2015 - 3:41pm  

Did I miss a line on Baseball Reference that list the US political party for every player?  The vast majority of players don't go on the record about political affiliation; only those who are very vocal like Schilling are known.

The only thing you can actually track would be campaign contributions and data shows: "The vast majority of baseball's political contributions stem from team execs and owners. Only a handful of players opened their pockets for last year's election, and those who did gave modestly. Current players that donated to conservative candidates include White Sox infielder Gordon Beckham, Yankees designated hitter Travis Hafner, Royals pitcher Jeremy Guthrie and San Diego Padres pitcher Huston Street. Tony Gwynn, Jr. of the Dodgers, and son of Hall of Famer Tony Gwynn, was the only player we found donating to liberal causes. But a few baseball legends serving as special assistants to their clubs also gave to Democrats, including Hank Aaron and Lou Brock as well as Sammy Sosa, one of the sluggers caught up in baseball's steroids scandal who still may be nursing a grudge over getting traded by former President George W. Bush when the Texas Republican was running the Rangers."

Given their wealth, I would guess more major leagues are Republican than Democratic, but saying "almost all" is just silly and is not supported by anything. We just don't have that kind of data and it won't be as clear cut as you think.

Submitted by Rob G.  on Wed, 01/07/2015 - 3:57pm  

what you said...I'd go 55/45 at best....okay 60/40.

Submitted by Brick  on Wed, 01/07/2015 - 4:33pm  
Well, he didn't play for the Blue Sox.

Submitted by crunch  on Wed, 01/07/2015 - 5:27pm  
i got no data...hell, i don't got a conversation about it that's less than 8 years old and it's not like i can get them here to talk about it...and even then, they have no data. at least we don't have john birchers left in baseball...maybe...

Submitted by jacos  on Wed, 01/07/2015 - 3:49pm  
Holy shit what a dumb ass. Best not bring up gov shit head http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/38_Studios

Submitted by jacos  on Wed, 01/07/2015 - 7:35pm  
Blast from the past The case for Neifie Perez, All star, is made in the comments http://www.thecubreporter.com/2005/05/30/game...

Submitted by John Beasley  on Wed, 01/07/2015 - 7:52pm  
Of course I miss Manny.

Submitted by crunch  on Wed, 01/07/2015 - 11:17pm  
"Ken Rosenthal and Jon Morosi of FOX Sports report the Cardinals are exploring a trade for David Price or Cole Hamels, or the possibility of signing Max Scherzer." boo.

Submitted by Ryno  on Thu, 01/08/2015 - 12:06pm  
They need a better starter for the first game of the season! :)

Submitted by Old and Blue  on Thu, 01/08/2015 - 7:05am  
Whatever the new hitting coach is telling Baez down in PR, it's not taking yet.

Submitted by Rob Richardson  on Thu, 01/08/2015 - 8:31am  
I'm expecting Baez will spend a lot of time in AAA in 2015.

Submitted by Sonicwind75  on Thu, 01/08/2015 - 9:40am  
If Baez still had rookie/prospect status, where would he now rank? Personally I would slot him 4th behind Bryant, Addison, Soler. Trying to gauge how much his value has dropped since this time last year.

Submitted by Rob Richardson  on Thu, 01/08/2015 - 11:02am  
I would drop him behind Schwarber, who I have forth on my list. The rest of the top ten either has questions of their own or much lower ceilings.

Submitted by videographer  on Thu, 01/08/2015 - 3:06pm  
Baez is such a wild card at this time that trying to figure out his MLB prospect status hurts the brain. He could be great or a total bust. He reminds me of a young Sammy, swinging at anything that can make him a star - a MEathead.

Submitted by Rob G.  on Thu, 01/08/2015 - 3:11pm  

Bless that LaStella trade right about now...

(just cursed him to an 0/30 start on the season most likely)

Submitted by WISCGRAD  on Thu, 01/08/2015 - 3:14pm  

Yes, seems like a wise insurance move.

The kid is still young and has adjusted before to put up huge numbers throughout the minors, so I still have high hopes for him, but it may take a while or never happen, so it's good to have contingencies in place.

Submitted by Sonicwind75  on Thu, 01/08/2015 - 3:18pm  
On que: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/uncertainty-mo...

Submitted by Charlie  on Thu, 01/08/2015 - 9:41pm  
A follow up question might be, which is more valuable to a franchise and by how much, Baez's upside or Betts's high floor?

Submitted by Old and Blue  on Thu, 01/08/2015 - 8:50pm  
I'm curious to know if his PR struggles are related to him trying some new stuff, though. I guess we'll find out when he gets back. I've gotta root for a guy who tattoos MLB on the back of his neck before he hits the big leagues.

Submitted by jacos  on Thu, 01/08/2015 - 8:47am  
Sh!tters Full! Cubs officially announce that "Cubs Park" in Mesa will now be "Sloan Park" as part of new partnership with Sloan Valve Company. Sloan Valve does toilet valves.

Submitted by Cubster  on Thu, 01/08/2015 - 1:06pm  
view from the Sloan Park master men's room... http://0.static.wix.com/media/083854_e9039a5c...

Submitted by WISCGRAD  on Thu, 01/08/2015 - 10:15am  

Marcos Mateo signed a minor league contract with the Padres.

Submitted by Rob G.  on Thu, 01/08/2015 - 2:07pm  

Bears hire Ryan Pace for GM job, Saints Player Personnel Director...37 years old, same age as Theo when hired by Cubs.

Pace played football at Eastern Illinois and joined the Saints in 2001. He was pro scouting director for six years before being promoted to his current title in 2013.  

"He is really good at what he does," Payton said about Pace on Monday. "He's a big part of what we do. He's very talented and I know he has been promoted here a few times, and deservedly so.

http://www.nola.com/saints/index.ssf/2015/01/...

Submitted by jacos  on Thu, 01/08/2015 - 3:23pm  
Saints currently in salary cap hell. But hey, welcome aboard!

Submitted by Rob G.  on Thu, 01/08/2015 - 4:18pm  

http://media.tumblr.com/tumblr_m239yv0OCU1qfm...

Submitted by jacos  on Thu, 01/08/2015 - 4:41pm  
The Monkees? Really?

Submitted by Rob G.  on Thu, 01/08/2015 - 4:48pm  

fine...

http://i.imgur.com/0asCbEt.gif

Monkees, Addams Family, Munsters, Brady Bunch, Gilligan's Island, Batman, so on, so on...they were all on syndication on our 5 channels of TV back in the day. I watched them all.

Submitted by jacos  on Thu, 01/08/2015 - 6:23pm  
I watched them too

Submitted by Rob G.  on Thu, 01/08/2015 - 2:14pm  

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/football...

a little more info and the HC search

The Bears interviewed Seahawks defensive coordinator Dan Quinn and Broncos offensive coordinator Adam Gase last weekend and have an interview scheduled for Saturday with Cardinals defensive coordinator Todd Bowles.

Submitted by Rob G.  on Thu, 01/08/2015 - 2:16pm  

Tim Brown didn't submit a HOF vote because people are mean...or something like that.

(He seemed to think this was some grand gesture to provoke the Hall into realizing the system is broken...kudos to the idea, thumbs down on the execution)

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/why-not-voting-f...

Submitted by jacos  on Thu, 01/08/2015 - 3:22pm  
Ok you have been noticed,now go crawl back under your rock

Submitted by Rob G.  on Thu, 01/08/2015 - 5:35pm  

I believe Schilling is now claiming that whole thing about being a Republican losing him HOF votes was all just a joke.

http://www.betcheslovethis.com/files/uploads/...

(Today is TCR Gif Comments Day, sorry if you missed the e-vite)

Maybe "It's Because I'm a Republican" is the "Thanks Obama" punchline for Republicans ~shrug~

 

Submitted by Charlie  on Thu, 01/08/2015 - 5:51pm  
I checked my spam folder and there was nothing there, Rob. http://www.quickmeme.com/img/4e/4ed9be9cce98a...

Submitted by Rob G.  on Thu, 01/08/2015 - 6:32pm  

Bucs hired someone other than Trestman for their OC job. Trestman did interview with Jaguars as well.

Submitted by Rob G.  on Thu, 01/08/2015 - 7:45pm  

pretty good overview of what Pace has to deal with it...

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/football...

Cutler's a $19M cap hit if they release him I believe prior to June 1st, so that's not happening. Rumor was a trade would involve Bears having to give up a draft pick to get a worse pick and dump his salary, don't know how wise that would be and there are no alternatives on the FA market imo. I believe his cap hit after next season if he's cut is only around $3M, so I think one more year of Cutler is inevitable.

If they can swing it, you stick with the offense personnel you have for the most part and try to keep most of the system in place so they're not learning they're 5th new offense since Cutler joined. I'd be happy to see at least a 50% turnover in defensive personel. Beyond Fuller, maybe Christian Jones and some of the defensive lineman, the rest can all go.

Speaking of, has he cut Chris Conte or fired Mel Tucker yet?

Submitted by Dusty Baylor  on Thu, 01/08/2015 - 7:49pm  
I'd also keep Bostic...Paea, Willie Young if he comes back ok...Ratliff...and the 2 back up DT's

Submitted by Rob G.  on Thu, 01/08/2015 - 7:56pm  

I'm sure Bostic is back, he's cheap and not completely terrible. They can bring Paea back, but won't be too upset if they don't. Ratliff, Young and Houston, eh, two of them were injured right?

J. Allen is a $12.5M cap hit. Thanks Obama!

Submitted by Dusty Baylor  on Thu, 01/08/2015 - 9:21pm  
True....but at least Young was productive. Houston? Oof...he was bad.

Submitted by Rob G.  on Thu, 01/08/2015 - 10:17pm  

Guys have good years, guys have bad years, he's still pretty young. No idea if he was any good in the first place though.

That's what Mr. Pace is for.

Submitted by Old and Blue  on Fri, 01/09/2015 - 8:02am  
I can't believe I'm saying this because as an older guy in a young person's business I run into my share of ageism (it doesn't seem to affect me personally but I see it, and it's not as bad as the sexism), but, I'm glad the guy is as young as he is. The Bears could use that youthful shot in the arm. Again, I can't believe I'm saying this, but Halas Hall has probably smelled like a senior citizen's home the last few years. Good to see a youngin' get a shot at fixing this.

Submitted by John Beasley  on Fri, 01/09/2015 - 6:39am  
Cubs making the Cardinals nervous? http://www.stltoday.com/sports/columns/bernie...

Submitted by Ryno  on Fri, 01/09/2015 - 10:15am  
All through the baseball world (even in the wider sporting world) you hear commentators now talking about whether or not a team should do a Cubs-style rebuild. It's awesome.

Submitted by jacos  on Fri, 01/09/2015 - 10:39am  
And the amazing thing is they don't have a playoff appearance yet to show for it.

Submitted by Charlie  on Fri, 01/09/2015 - 11:31am  
Haven't been able to break 75 wins yet, even.

Submitted by Ryno  on Fri, 01/09/2015 - 12:00pm  
It's a rare moment in history when the general public is more optimistic about the Cubs' chances than Cub fandom itself.

Submitted by Charlie  on Fri, 01/09/2015 - 12:12pm  
I'm optimistic enough to think they could win 80-84 games this year, provided that Lester, Arietta, and Rizzo do not have any season-ending injuries.

Submitted by Ryno  on Fri, 01/09/2015 - 12:22pm  
I think they have a decent shot at a playoff spot in 2015 if things go their way.

Submitted by jacos  on Fri, 01/09/2015 - 12:23pm  
if they have career years, along with Bryant and Soler. (yes I know Byrant is a rookie and his first year will be his career year)

Submitted by Ryno  on Fri, 01/09/2015 - 3:34pm  
Debbie Downer.

Submitted by Old and Blue  on Sat, 01/10/2015 - 7:22am  
Bryant projections for 2015: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2319842-kr... "Bill James has him down for 152 games, 33 homers, 105 rbis, 18 stolen bases and an .864 OPS. " Steamer Projections for Kris Bryant PA HR SB AVG OBP SLUG OPS WAR 600 31 9 .261 .340 .496 .836 4.5 Kris Bryant's 2014 Season Split PA HR SB AVG OBP SLUG OPS AA 297 22 8 .355 .458 .702 1.160 AAA 297 21 7 .295 .418 .619 1.036 Total 594 43 15 .325 .438 .661 1.098 Bryant is the first prospect we've seen out of the Cubs organization in recent years with the statistical chops to suggest he's a can't miss: Bill Madlock's average minor league OPS was .828, although he wasn't a slugger. His OPB was .375. Compare Bryant with Corey Patterson's last two years in Iowa: .261 .338 .491 .829 .253 .308 .387 .694 The .829 OPS was pretty good but the stats overall aren't "can't miss". Maybe sometime WISCGRAD will do an analysis of Cubs past prospects and we can see how many can't misses there were, but Bryant is the first I remember. He has a high K rate, but with that high OPB it doesn't mean a thing. It will go down in future years but next year it will be up there, but it shouldn't impact his stats too negatively. So if he comes close to matching that, that's nearly 5 wins alone. Add a full season of Soler and throw in full seasons of Lester and Arrietta and a healthy Rizzo, and suddenly the Cubs get interesting. And I like Kyle Hendricks a lot more than just about everyone else in the world does. As far as I am concerned, the Cubs have 3 starters that can shut down a losing streak, which is a key for a young team. Add in a pretty nasty bullpen, and you have a team that you pretty much need to be leading by the 6th inning or so. Add in a more experienced Alcantara, who is another guy I like more than a lot of people do, who this year cuts down on his Ks a bit, a really nice defensive catching tandem (one of whom hits pretty well at least from one side of the plate, and maybe even Stella leading off if he's as good as some scouts say. IF everyone stays healthy I think 90 wins is possible. Only if everything falls into place, and I'll admit that's rare. Things always go wrong for most teams at some point. And don't forget Mandonini's 40 WAR.

Submitted by Charlie  on Sat, 01/10/2015 - 10:50am  
Choi's minor league numbers are pretty stellar except for 2001, his 77-game first go round in AAA at age 22. I don't mean that to be a downer--I actually think Choi could've been league average-ish if not for some injuries and if for a few more shots. If he were 25 right now, he'd be some team's starting 1B and wouldn't be so criticized for being overly passive at the plate.

Submitted by Carlito  on Sat, 01/10/2015 - 2:41pm  
I think Bryant is in a different category. He's some people's #1 MiLB prospect.

Submitted by Charlie  on Sat, 01/10/2015 - 3:34pm  
You're right about that. Bryant is doing this in an era where sometimes you can lead the league with fewer than 40 HRs. Also, Choi's minor league OPS was routinely in the .900s. Bryant's minor league OPS is 1.095 so far. But I was mostly trying to think of the last player who looked like a real can't-miss by the numbers and Choi is the closest I can come up with.

Submitted by Carlito  on Sat, 01/10/2015 - 3:38pm  
Agreed. I know that there have been others with more hype like Felix Pie and Corey Patterson but Choi may have had the steadiest actual stats. Then there are the ridiculous claims that Bryant might be the BEST hitting prospect ever. I'll have to find the origin of that. Does anyone remember who said it or who explored the idea that he is?

Submitted by Old and Blue  on Sun, 01/11/2015 - 9:41am  
I thought about Hee Seop as I was writing it but I just didn't see the comp because most of his experience was up through the Korean system - not that that is bad - it's just harder for me to know how to measure. But I really thought he looked like a can't miss prospect, too, at least in just watching him, if not the stats. I remember once shot off his bat, a line drive that drove into the outfield fence and seemed at the time it nearly went through it. Even for today's OBP happy baseball world he was a bit passive at the plate but it seemed to me at the time not to be so critical, even then. He would have figured that out. I was pretty surprised when he ended up a bust.

Submitted by WISCGRAD  on Sat, 01/10/2015 - 3:31pm  

Hah, that would be a short analysis. There have been several Cubs prospects in the past that fans and analysts said "couldn't miss" and all of them have. There, done. 

Submitted by Dusty Baylor  on Sat, 01/10/2015 - 4:32pm  
Which prospects were can't miss? Patterson Pie Who else?

Submitted by billybucks  on Sat, 01/10/2015 - 10:30pm  
Don't know about "can't miss", but Vitters supposedly had the "best swing" of any hitter in that year's draft. Pie was supposed to be the "Michael Jordan of baseball", according to one of the Cubs minor league coaches. Sadly, he was exactly that -- Michael Jordan playing baseball...

Submitted by Rob G.  on Sun, 01/11/2015 - 2:37am  

guess everyone's defintion may vary, but if you look at their major league rankings, they rarely had anyone in the top 20 of the whole game.

http://wiklifield.thecubreporter.com/Cubs_on_...

Castro before 2010 was #16

Baez was #16 before 2013 and #5 (with Bryant #8) before last year.

Otherwise you have to go all the way back to Mark Prior before 2002 at #2 with Juan Cruz at #6 the same season..

  • 2001: C. Patterson #2, J. Cruz #17
  • 2000: C. Patterson #3
  • 1999: C. Patterson #16
  • 1998: K. Wood #4
  • 1997: K. Wood #3
  • 1996: K. Wood #16
  • 1990: M. Harkey #14

F. Pie's highest ranking was #27 before 2006, H. Choi got up to #22 before 2003, B. Dopirak got up to #21 before 2005

Submitted by VirginiaPhil  on Mon, 01/12/2015 - 7:22am  
Could miss I'm surprised (not for the first time) how unimpressive Patterson's minor-league numbers are above low-A ball. Pie is better, but he's no Kris Bryant, who played 36 games in 2013 and then hit 45 home runs in his first full season as a pro, which included half a season at Iowa. edit: 43 Hrs

Submitted by Old and Blue  on Sun, 01/11/2015 - 10:03am  
Patterson was never can't miss for me, no matter what the media said. He showed no baseball acumen on the field or at the plate whatsoever. His minor league numbers didn't scream at you the way Bryant's did. Pie had a couple of really nice years in the minors, but his body of work didn't scream out the way Bryant's has, but in fairness Bryant has only had one full year, so that's a crappy comp. What we can say about Bryant is that he's dominated at every level, but you have to throw in college there, and that's not the minors. Pie seemed like he had some potential to me, but I never really thought he was going to have a higher ceiling than, say, Alcantara has. Pie to me was a comp to Alcantara - but of course I was not aware of Alcantara at the time. Potential to be a good player, but no sure thing. The last time I saw a Cub come up through the system and I said to myself on first watching him, "That guy is going to dominate the competition" was Lee Smith. I thought that the first time I saw him pitch. Well, there was Prior, but everybody was talking about him. But as for position players, I honestly can't remember being wowed to the point of thinking, "all star in the making". I remember loving Bill Madlock, but I don't remember a moment early on where I sat watching in awe. Soler did that too me, and even Baez in his first few at bats until I started realizing he had some pretty awful mechanics that I think are fixable. I know I went on and on about Olt, but I've never said, "can't miss". That was more, "why the hell aren't we trying to find out what he's got?" Prodigious power, but a Brett Jacksonish knack for missing hittable pitches. So, for me, so far, it's really just Soler in recent memory where I think sure thing, but even that is hedged by injury paranoia. I haven't seen Bryant other than one game here in Round Rock and he didn't do anything there, but his stats speak for themselves, and he played the corner position pretty well. A lot of baseball people talk about Addison Russell as a can't miss, but even he doesn't have Bryant-like stats. But then again, not many have had those kinds of stats. One year being a small sample size, of course. Bryce Harper had the same kind of hype, but not even his stats were as good. I don't remember Mike Trout hype until he got up to the MLB level, but his stats weren't even as good in the minors. Thus my suggestion that Bryant is probably going to be worth 4-5 WAR, barring injury.

Submitted by Old and Blue  on Fri, 01/09/2015 - 7:56am  
Article linked in MLBTR about Yankees and Red Sox being heavy favorites on Moncado, but then it says if he isn't made available by June 15 or something like that they are out of luck because of the international signing bonus thing. Anybody have a good grasp on how that works and where the Cubs lie in this latest Cuban quest? I've read the Cubs are actually pretty heavily involved, but that they are better served by a longish delay because of their bonus pool being exceeded. From MLBTR
Neither team can spend more than $300K on any player during the 2015-16 international signing period, a penalty incurred for exceeding their 2014-15 int’l bonus pools. If Moncada isn’t cleared before June 15, the Yankees and Sox will be out of the running, as Moncada will command a bonus in the $30MM-$40MM range.
So I guess the Cubs are ok for 2014-15? If not, why would they be in on this guy? Good thing I'm not a GM. I can never keep that stuff straight in my head.

Submitted by Rob G.  on Fri, 01/09/2015 - 9:48am  

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/11/yoan-mo...

Moncada, on the other hand, will be subject to spending limits, but executives that spoke with Passan still seemed to believe the price tag could approach $40MM. That would obliterate any team’s bonus pool, and a signing team would have to pay a 100 percent luxury tax on all overages (in addition to subsequently being prohibited from spending more than $300K on a player in the next two signing periods). In that regard, then, a team would essentially be dropping $60-80MM to add Moncada to its farm system, based on the range Passan received in his poll of execs.

So the dude is so good apparently that teams are willing to pay a 100% luxury tax of $30-$40M on him...wow. Somehow I bet this works out for the Yanks or Red Sox.

Submitted by Old and Blue  on Fri, 01/09/2015 - 10:14am  
Has anybody seen my international baseball fantasy draft picks lately? Oh, wait. Never mind.

Submitted by Rob G.  on Fri, 01/09/2015 - 3:08pm  

on that note, if the system is designed to keep amateur player salaries down, but teams willfully could give 2 fucks about keeping within those rules, maybe they should just get rid of the rules?

Teams must realize that this is all going to an international draft and are gonna spend as much as they can now.

Submitted by Old and Blue  on Sat, 01/10/2015 - 7:24am  
Yeah I read somewhere that is why Cubs are in on Moncado.

Submitted by jacos  on Fri, 01/09/2015 - 11:13am  
Meet the new boss, same as the old boss Todays press conference for Ryan Pace Bears new GM "Ryan will report to me" -Ted Phillips Rinse, repeat.

Submitted by Rob G.  on Fri, 01/09/2015 - 2:30pm  

I still don't get the Ted Phillips hate, Bears have always hit near the salary cap and he's not evaluating the players. Fault him for Angelo I suppose, but well Angelo was a lot better than what they had before and certainly well regarded at the time. I didn't mind Emery or Trestman, especially at first, I think most liked the offensive direction they wanted to go(although I know I mentioned numerous times that I was worried they we're gonna piss away their defense), but it wasn't working out and they cut bait a lot quicker than I expected.

Although the way they handled the HC search after Lovie was obviously very dysfunctional. But hopefully they just let Pace take over and do his thing, it's the only way to run things.

I know he's the Crane Kenney of the Bears and Kenney's a douche, but he's not keeping the Cubs from winning. Well except maybe in '08.

Submitted by Old and Blue  on Sun, 01/11/2015 - 10:11am  
There's also McCaskey hate, don't forget that. But in truth, George is miles ahead of Michael, who really presided over mediocrity in a way that seemed almost like an art form - Super Bowl exception noted. George has presided over mediocrity, but he's trying like hell, in my opinion. He okayed the Cutler contract - yes, it is a bad contract but it showed that the McCaskey's aren't afraid of pouring money into the problem. He has okayed lots of free agent money. He okayed the Marshall trade - not for a minute do I think somebody trades for Brandon Marshall and at least checks in with the owner. He's shown impatience with his GMs, for good reason. Fans should cut the dude some slack - he's at least trying. I've complained here a lot about how the McCaskeys don't eat contracts. Well, they just did, and I have a feeling that if the new guy doesn't want Cutler and/or Marshall around, they'll be gone.

Submitted by Rob G.  on Fri, 01/09/2015 - 3:05pm  

Pace press conference summary

http://chicagofootball.com/2015/01/09/noteboo...

doesn't sound particularly high on Cutler, build through the draft, says need to go back to Bears identiy of tough, physical defenses...I'd be happy with any defense.

Submitted by Rob G.  on Fri, 01/09/2015 - 3:11pm  

Pace's thoughts on head coaches

https://chicagofootball.shawcms.com/articles/...

The two most important relationships within an NFL organization, according to Pace, are the one between a general manager and head coach, and the bond between the coach and quarterback.

Good luck with that...

Submitted by Rob G.  on Fri, 01/09/2015 - 4:57pm  

Denorfia official, Kickham kicked to the curb to make room.

Submitted by Charlie  on Fri, 01/09/2015 - 4:59pm  
Kickham. I mean, to even pun on it seems redundant. Still waiting for the Castillo move that seems inevitable.

Submitted by crunch  on Fri, 01/09/2015 - 5:35pm  
might have to wait until next season for that one...the team has the luxury of seeing who sticks in the middle IF out of their crew of question marks. mid-season, maybe... lots of neat parts in the pipeline, but we have a SS/2nd who may not hit well enough to stick around in 2015, a "next big thing" SS who's not made it past AA, and a new 2nd who may not even be able to stick at 2nd because of questions about his D...then there's castro. yeah, they'll listen to any deal offer and all that, but they can afford to wait given castro's length of contract, development age, and relative affordability. barring injury or suck, he's still going to have a lot of value on the trade market. that said, it wouldn't shock me to see him moved if the right offer came across because they can gamble on that depth.

Submitted by Charlie  on Fri, 01/09/2015 - 5:38pm  
I was thinking smaller-scale--Welington. I agree with you on Castro--that's not so inevitable and will happen only after Baez and/or Russell really show something, if at all.

Submitted by Cubster  on Fri, 01/09/2015 - 6:34pm  
speaking of Kick-em...Lavarnway is back on DFA road again

Submitted by Newport  on Fri, 01/09/2015 - 7:54pm  
Kickham really should be a Ham Fighter.

Submitted by Charlie  on Fri, 01/09/2015 - 8:55pm  
*doffs cap*

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