Cubs @ Nationals Series Thread (Games 42-44)

The Cubs (25-16) continue their road trip with a swing over to the old District to take on the 4th place (?!) Nationals (18-25).

The Nats are off to a disappointing start. Losing Bryce Harper on the free agent market is only part of the explanation. Trea Turner has been on the IL since early April with a broken finger. Veterans Ryan Zimmerman and Adam Eaton have WRC+'s of 81 and 93 respectively. And the bullpen has put up an MLB worst 6.20 ERA despite being the least exposed bullpen in the majors (only 127.2 IP). In the positives column, their rotation leads the majors in strikeouts per 9 innings and Baseball Reference rates them as leading the league at 4 wins above average. Anthony Rendon also continues to be excellent at all things baseball. Check out the day-by-day matchups below.


Game 42
CHC: LHP Cole Hamels (3-0, 3.08 ERA)
WAS: RHP Max Scherzer (2-4, 3.64 ERA)
First pitch 6:05pmCDT

You know what I didn't appreciate about Hamels before he became a Cub? He's fun to watch. His return to form with Chicago obviously improves the overall experience, but he's also expressive on the mound. You can see when he's frustrated and you can see when he's having fun. After a handful of cursing, grumbling starts, Hamels looked to be enjoying himself again when he started against Milwaukee. He couldn't earn his fourth win in that one, but he did provide 7 solid innings and allowed only 1 earned run. Brian Dozier is 4-14 off of him. Ryan Zimmerman is 22-88 with 20 strikeouts.

Scherzer's ERA is up a tick in the early going, but I'm inclined to attribute that to the defense behind him or mere luck. His BABIP is up to .361 while all of his other peripherals are actually improved over last year. The short of it is that he remains terrifying. At 34 he's averaging 95.1 MPH on hist fastball and still has a nasty slider. Rizzo is 4-15 with a HR off of him. Addison Russell is 3-11 with a HR but has also struck out 7(!) times. Everyone else is probably thumb wrestling to determine who can get the day off.


Game 43
CHC: LHP Jon Lester (3-1, 1.16 ERA)
WAS: RHP Stephen Strasburg (3-3, 3.63 ERA)
First pitch 6:15pmCDT

Even if the Cubs have to take on Scherzer and Strasburg, the good news is they have their best starters going in return. Lester has been absurdly good this season. He went 6.2 allowing 1 unearned run to earn a win against Milwaukee on his last turn. Ryan Zimmerman is 4-14 with a pair of homeruns and a pair of doubles against him. No other current Nats have done much against him.

The oft-injured Strasburg has made all his scheduled starts so far in 2019 and has been dominating in a handful of them. On the other hand, he's allowed 4 or more earned runs in 4 of those starts. Current Cubs have slashed .279/.345/.423 against him in 104 ABs--not too shabby. Heyward, who has regressed recently, is 15-37 against Strasburg.


Game 44
CHC: RHP Kyle Hendricks (3-4, 2.86 ERA)
WAS: RHP Jeremy Hellickson (2-2, 6.00 ERA)
First pitch 6:08pmCDT (because ESPN)

Hey! This matchup favors the Cubs! Hendricks added to his hot stretch with an 8-inning start in which he collected as many hits as he allowed (3). He looks to have gotten a feel for his delivery and is now rarely walking anyone and getting a ton of weak contact. Maddon and broadcasters have tried to make some hay of his attempt to use his curveball to greater effect, but he's using it about as much as he ever has. Adam Eaton is 4-13 with a pair of homeruns off of him. Overall, he's held current Nats to a .570 OPS.

Jeremy Hellickon's 2019 has not been great. His walk rate is way up and he's allowing 2 homeruns per 9 innings. Last time out he allowed 5 earned runs against the Mets while walking 4 over 5 innings. He's never been an especially hard thrower, but his velocity is down a bit to an average of 89.3 on fastballs. Current Cubs have hardly seen him. Baez is 2-4 with a HR, Byrant 2-6 with a HR, and Descalso is 3-7.


I'll be at the Saturday game to see Strasburg and Lester. Look for a guy in a Cubs hat!

Comments

This is great, Charlie. Thank you for this and all your game previews!

Thanks, Eric!

Side note, I am eager to split the gameday thread schedule with other readers. If anyone would be interested in taking on a part of the schedule (a certain day of the week, every other series, etc.), I think the site would benefit! And future, busier me would be thankful.

Trae Turner activated today and available for the  Cubs series. 

It’s a shame that Willson doesn‘t have a buttery feel to his catching game - Soto should have been struck out looking but the ball clanged out of Contreras‘s mitt. Now bases loaded. Good hitter, fearless and a cannon of an arm but really struggles with the feel aspect of the game. 

at least he's top tier on the power and arm side of being a catcher even if he can be kinda average with his recieving.  it's the kind of average that's not "we'll learn to live with it for the positive tradoff elsewhere."

cubs get him at least 3 more seasons.  hope he stays healthy.

All I’m looking for is something greater than Johnny Bench on steroids x100. Too much of an ask?

this is exactly why jed hoyer is the worst GM in cubs history.

I don't know if "pretty average with his receiving" covers what we see with Contreras. He's a bad framer. If the eye test isn't solid on that, here's one handy comparison based on in-zone balls and out-of-one strikes called: http://www.statcorner.com/CatcherReport.php

At least he's not down there in Jorge Alfaro or Gary Sanchez territory! And he's improved (so far) over last year, and had improved a bit last year over 2017. Incremental improvement is really nice to see in the numbers--can't say I picked up on that as a viewer.

His framing, blocking and generally catching technique is below average. He routinely doesn't block pitches in the dirt "correctly".

He can hear JD under his breathe when he does it. And, he misses pitches sometimes. Just doesn't catch the pitch. 

He has hard hands. That's probably why he didn't make it as a 3B.

But he has a cannon. He's quick and he can hit. I guess we just live with the other bad. Hopefully he'll learn.

cj edwards balks in a run.

this game is getting too much drama.  fun game, though...so far...

okay, way to up the drama...wild pitch, tying run going home, rundown, out 3, cubs still lead by 1.

He almost botched the rundown too.  I believe he tried to tag runner with the hand without the ball. 

wow.  nice.

padding 3 runs in the 8th takes the drama down a few notches.  it's late.  MTL and STL are both on their way to losses (pending meltdown).

Nice game for Bryant, 3 homers in 3 ABs

Edwards really has that sympathetic appeal for me in that I also experience sports brain-farts and am as unathletic as he seems like he should be based on his appearance.

I thought he was catlike. Got there well before the runner, faked a throw, tagged him (or would have if the runner hadn't strayed).

Of course, I always defend Edwards. I just think he'll be a stud reliever when he gets beyond the emotional age of thirteen. But starting to make multiple millions usually does that for immature players.

I didn't even blame Edwards when Suarez homered the other day on a high, outside mid-90s fastball.  That's just great hitting, Pujols-type stuff.

3HR night for bryant.  he's good at doing baseball.

1 run lead going into the 8th...10 run lead in the 9th...whatever.

good job with that dugout mic WGN.  also, i wonder what maddon thinks is "so f'd up" in a game with a 10 run lead.

Sportscenter with a graphic this morning showing KB‘s .277 avg and 31 rbi’s the same after 41 games as his MVP season in 2016. Added bonus: he has 3 more HR with 11 than his 9 in 2016.

turrible.  DFA lester.

if Fox would remove the mic near the press/photo crew, that would be nice.

every pitch is a flury of camera shutter snapping sounds.

the war on fancy pitching is going to strange places in 2019...

game is now being played under protest by the cubs (doolittle's foot tap delivery motion)

I am sick of these national games, even with Len in the booth.

girardi, while not stupid or annoying, doesn't do it for me in the booth.

tonight we should get more arod as we do the 3rd ESPN sunday game of the month.

arod...how much money do you need?  why are you doing this?  stop plz.

Considering the gap between Lester and Strasburg, I was shocked last night didn't turn into a blowout. Seemed like Lester was behind in every count and couldn't miss a bat.

schwarber/bryant/rizzo/baez/contreras/descalso(2nd)/heyward/almora/hendricks

MIL wins in extras...STL loses in extras...

Crunch, could you put some spaces in the lineup, so that will wrap on my iPhone?  Looks fine on a laptop.  Thanks. 

no problem.  i do almost all my internet work from a laptop/desktop and i'm still learning how mobile devices deal with stuff.  thanks for the heads up.

Maybe after the four pitch walk to start the 6th inning would have been a good time to start warming up the bullpen

looks like baez tweaked his ankle...doesn't seem major.

also wtf hendricks.

There seems to be a pattern when Kintzler pitches against the Nats. And not a favorable one for the Cubs. 

He did bulletin board them before the series started, though.

I’m sure Doolittle is jonesing to get an opportunity to close this game out and shove it up Madden‘s azz. 

maddon betting heavy on cishek...batting for himself and going into a 3rd inning of pitching...a'ite

longest outing in 7 years according to arod's neverending banter...he never got around to fully explaining the metric he's using for that stat, but i think he means appearances in individual innings in a game or it's a hypothetical if he finished all 3 outs in the 9th...dunno...ESPN...whatever

cishek nails it down...3 up, 3 down.  woo.

The Cishek game!!!  Nice series win particularly after the disappointment in Cincy

baez day-to-day...they're supposedly not sending him for xrays or evaluation and expecting him to miss little-to-no time.

I am proud to say i did not listen to one word of Aroid. Pat and Coom all the way.

Recent comments

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  • JustSayin' 3 days 8 hours ago (view)

     I hear you but welcome to the world of Theo.  The team is always a step or two away from the World Series in his mind, whether that is true or not.  Therefore, the thing to do on the margin is to trade top prospects or younger guys on the roster for that missing puzzle piece, not build for the future.  I had a front-row seat for this as a Red Sox fan.  If Pedro Martinez doesn't insist the Red Sox sign David Ortiz for table scraps and Chris Bryant isn't the no-brainer second pick in the draft, we'd all be wondering what happened to that Theo guy who was in the Red S

     

  • Cubster 3 days 9 hours ago (view)

    Shogo Akiyama is a lefty bat, career BA at.301 w/ Seibu Lions.  Recent OBPs: .419, .385, .398, .403 and .392. HR 20-15 in last 3 seasons Stolen bases, 12 in 2019, 18 in best season (2016). Defense supposedly plus-plus, 7-10 assists (10 in 2016). Clearly a leadoff hitter.

     

  • crunch 4 days 2 hours ago (view)

    christian yelich committed internet homicide on yu darvish...

    https://twitter.com/ChristianYelich/status/1195462...

     

  • Charlie 4 days 6 hours ago (view)

    Little in the offseason could make me happier than the Cubs finding ways to retain the good MLB players who came up with them while remaining competitive. This Javy extension talk makes me much happier as a fan than the Bryant and Contreras trade talk.

     

  • crunch 4 days 6 hours ago (view)

    "Javy Baez. The two-time All-Star shortstop and 2018 MVP runner-up already has begun negotiations on a potential long-term extension with the Cubs, according to sources."

    also, some talk of being linked to shogo akiyama (CF, Japan, 32yo in April)

    https://chicago.suntimes.com/cubs/2019/11/15/20966...

     

  • crunch 5 days 3 hours ago (view)

    j.odorizzi accepted his qualifying offer (17.8m) from MIN...so did j.abreu (CWS)....everyone else is gonna play the FA market.

    w.smith (SF) immediately signed with the braves for 3/39 (13m team option/1m buyout on the backend).  braves lose a 2nd round pick...which they'll probably get back when someone signs j.donaldson.

     

  • crunch 6 days 3 hours ago (view)

    nice.

    it's not like i think he's something special, but if he had 5mph more on his stuff he'd probably be a top prospect in the system combined with his command/control.  he's got highly repeatable junk and he's still young enough there might be a little more velocity to discover.

     

  • Arizona Phil 6 days 6 hours ago (view)

    CRUNCH: As long as Carrera is placed on the AAA Iowa reserve list on 11/20 he should be safe from selection, and I would say he is in fact close to a lock to be placed on the Iowa roster.

    Presuming he is on the Iowa reserve list going into the Rule 5 Draft, I doubt very much that he would get selected in the Major League Phase because he hasn't pitched above Lo-A. 

     

  • crunch 6 days 6 hours ago (view)

    nice info...

    i'm low-key keeping an eye on faustino carrera if he's not protected...which he may not be protected.

    he throws junk, but he throws it well, and with great control.

     

  • Arizona Phil 6 days 6 hours ago (view)

    I've talked to Player Development people over the past many years about the Rule 5 Draft and how an organization goes about deciding whether to protect or not protect a player from selection. 

    STEP 1: How many of your Rule 5 Draft-eligible players are actually legit candidates to get selected in the Major League Phase?. Usually there a dozen or more who could conceivably/realisticaly get selected. You need to identify them and then carefully evaluate them. 
    EXAMPLES: See my lists above. 

     

  • crunch 6 days 9 hours ago (view)

    "There are no untouchables," Epstein said.

    In truth, the Cubs boss has said the same every year, but it certainly sounds like he means it this time. "We're in the 'information collecting' stages of the process," one general manager put it on Tuesday.

    https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/28066390/there...

     

  • Dolorous Jon Lester 1 week 11 hours ago (view)

    I think, in relation to the higher profile guys like Javy or Contreras, they're trying to put some pressure on to sign extensions.

    That said I do think they're listening on everyone with the only name I haven't seen being Rizzo.

     

  • crunch 1 week 1 day ago (view)

    i wonder where the cubs will go with things.

    there's a lot pointing to the cubs being expected to listen to offers on almost anyone.  as it is, on paper, the cubs could roll right into 2020 with no changes whatsoever and still field a very competitive team.  the whole "shakeup" thing seems to be a very hot topic from a variety of sources, though.

    bryant, contreras, schwarber have all been linked to "cubs may be listening" rumors...probably listening to anything on happ, bote, almora, russell, too...

     

  • Hagsag 1 week 1 day ago (view)

    Even the Cubs should be able to out bid the Marlins!

     

  • crunch 1 week 1 day ago (view)

    "According to Joe Frisaro of MLB.com, the Marlins are "believed" to have interest in free agent outfielder Nicholas Castellanos."

    by interest, i assume they mean they'd like to have some baseball rookie cards or his or maybe a hug from him.  i can't imagine they actually want to spend money on someone they could use to make their team better because that makes no sense.

     

  • Arizona Phil 1 week 1 day ago (view)

    Prior to joining the Cubs in 2012 Scott Harris was Director of Baseball Operations in the MLB office, which means he received, reviewed, and approved all major league and minor league contracts and transactions, as well as providing MLB clubs with schedules, rules updates, and draft information.