Do the Cardinals Really Know How to Draft Pitchers Better?
Much has been made over the Cardinals “voodoo” that suddenly takes no-name pitchers and makes them stars. They seem to do the same with some hitters on occasion, but it’s mostly the pitchers that seem to come out of nowhere.
I wondered if it’s luck or voodoo, or do they really just know how to draft and/or develop pitchers better than other teams. So I went through the last 10 drafts and pulled out the pitchers drafted by 4 teams—the Cards, our Cubs, the Braves (who also seem to have an abundance of young pitching) and the Phillies (who lately as an organization don’t seem to be doing anything well). I listed the pitchers who got to the majors and to eliminate the cup of coffee guys, used 20 Ks as a minimum threshold.
There were a few interesting anomalies: the Cards drafted Michael Stutes but he didn’t sign and later signed with the Phillies, the Cubs originally signed Sonny Gray but he also didn’t sign, and it was fun seeing our own Brian Schlitter’s name in another team’s column.
Here are the results:
|Lynn, Lance||St. Louis Cardinals||52||32||1||666||9.1|
|Miller, Shelby||St. Louis Cardinals||31||20||0||361||8.3|
|Gregerson, Luke||St. Louis Cardinals||24||27||32||431||5.8|
|Wacha, Michael||St. Louis Cardinals||16||7||0||194||5.0|
|Garcia, Jaime||St. Louis Cardinals||43||27||0||484||4.8|
|Ottavino, Adam||St. Louis Cardinals||8||10||4||254||4.6|
|Rosenthal, Trevor||St. Louis Cardinals||5||12||61||245||3.9|
|Kelly, Joe||St. Louis Cardinals||22||20||0||263||3.2|
|Carpenter, David||St. Louis Cardinals||11||11||4||212||1.8|
|Siegrist, Kevin||St. Louis Cardinals||6||5||1||111||1.2|
|Boggs, Mitchell||St. Louis Cardinals||13||15||6||233||0.8|
|McCutchen, Daniel||St. Louis Cardinals||8||11||0||104||0.4|
|Blazek, Michael||St. Louis Cardinals||4||2||0||39||0.4|
|Freeman, Sam||St. Louis Cardinals||3||2||0||64||0.3|
|Gonzales, Marco||St. Louis Cardinals||4||2||0||31||0.1|
|Mortensen, Clayton||St. Louis Cardinals||6||11||0||112||-0.2|
|Lambert, Chris||St. Louis Cardinals||1||3||0||26||-0.8|
|Lyons, Tyler||St. Louis Cardinals||2||8||0||96||-0.8|
|Walters, P.J.||St. Louis Cardinals||6||10||0||104||-2.4|
|Samardzija, Jeff||Chicago Cubs||40||50||1||792||7.9|
|Cashner, Andrew||Chicago Cubs||22||33||0||391||4.9|
|Blevins, Jerry||Chicago Cubs||16||9||2||309||3.4|
|Russell, James||Chicago Cubs||10||17||3||224||1.9|
|Owings, Micah||Chicago Cubs||32||33||1||347||0.7|
|Rusin, Chris||Chicago Cubs||4||9||0||70||0.5|
|Beliveau, Jeff||Chicago Cubs||1||0||1||47||0.4|
|Parker, Blake||Chicago Cubs||2||3||1||85||0.3|
|Veal, Donnie||Chicago Cubs||3||3||1||73||0.2|
|Coleman, Casey||Chicago Cubs||8||13||0||123||-0.9|
|Raley, Brooks||Chicago Cubs||1||2||0||30||-0.9|
|Gallagher, Sean||Chicago Cubs||10||10||1||165||-1.5|
|Kimbrel, Craig||Atlanta Braves||15||11||198||502||11.9|
|Medlen, Kris||Atlanta Braves||34||20||1||434||9.6|
|Hanson, Tommy||Atlanta Braves||49||35||0||648||6.6|
|Wood, Alex||Atlanta Braves||17||16||0||285||5.6|
|Minor, Mike||Atlanta Braves||38||36||0||566||3.8|
|Oberholtzer, Brett||Atlanta Braves||9||18||0||142||3.4|
|Doolittle, Sean||Atlanta Braves||9||10||25||211||3.3|
|Coleman, Louis||Atlanta Braves||5||4||2||185||2.8|
|Devine, Joey||Atlanta Braves||8||3||1||89||2.0|
|Hoover, J.J.||Atlanta Braves||9||15||4||188||1.6|
|Hale, David||Atlanta Braves||6||5||0||60||1.5|
|Rasmus, Cory||Atlanta Braves||4||3||0||77||0.9|
|Shreve, Chasen||Atlanta Braves||1||1||0||34||0.9|
|Locke, Jeff||Atlanta Braves||21||21||0||295||0.6|
|Fields, Josh||Atlanta Braves||7||9||9||130||0.3|
|Simmons, Shae||Atlanta Braves||1||2||1||23||0.3|
|Martin, Cody||Atlanta Braves||2||2||0||23||0.0|
|Gearrin, Cory||Atlanta Braves||3||3||1||68||-0.1|
|Parr, James||Atlanta Braves||1||0||0||26||-0.2|
|Clemens, Paul||Atlanta Braves||4||8||0||65||-1.1|
|Cosart, Jarred||Philadelphia Phillies||15||15||0||172||5.5|
|Worley, Vance||Philadelphia Phillies||29||25||0||366||5.2|
|Griffin, A.J.||Philadelphia Phillies||21||11||0||235||4.3|
|Gibson, Kyle||Philadelphia Phillies||19||19||0||163||3.1|
|Outman, Josh||Philadelphia Phillies||16||11||0||226||2.7|
|Giles, Ken||Philadelphia Phillies||4||2||1||84||2.0|
|De Fratus, Justin||Philadelphia Phillies||7||5||0||124||1.2|
|Pettibone, Jonathan||Philadelphia Phillies||5||5||0||72||1.1|
|Buchanan, David||Philadelphia Phillies||6||13||0||83||0.6|
|Zagurski, Mike||Philadelphia Phillies||1||0||0||75||0.4|
|Stutes, Michael||Philadelphia Phillies||9||3||0||72||0.4|
|Savery, Joe||Philadelphia Phillies||3||2||0||32||0.0|
|Hollands, Mario||Philadelphia Phillies||2||2||0||35||0.0|
|Drabek, Kyle||Philadelphia Phillies||8||15||0||121||-0.1|
|Schwimer, Michael||Philadelphia Phillies||3||2||0||52||-0.1|
|Maloney, Matt||Philadelphia Phillies||5||9||0||59||-0.4|
|Zeid, Josh||Philadelphia Phillies||0||1||1||42||-0.4|
|Diekman, Jake||Philadelphia Phillies||7||11||0||200||-0.5|
|Rosenberg, B.J.||Philadelphia Phillies||4||2||1||52||-0.7|
|Carpenter, Drew||Philadelphia Phillies||1||1||0||33||-0.8|
|Cloyd, Tyler||Philadelphia Phillies||4||9||0||71||-0.8|
|Schlitter, Brian||Philadelphia Phillies||2||6||0||42||-0.9|
|May, Trevor||Philadelphia Phillies||6||9||0||80||-0.9|
|Huff, David||Philadelphia Phillies||25||28||0||229||-1.2|
|Workman, Brandon||Philadelphia Phillies||7||13||0||117||-1.2|
Based on WAR, the Braves actually have fared the best, Cards 2nd and the Phillies and Cubs are quite a ways behind. The Cardinal names that jump out are Lynn, Miller, Gregerson, Wacha, Garcia, Rosenthal, Kelly and now Marco Gonzales. The Braves have Kimbrel, Medlen, Doolittle, Hanson, Jeff Locke, Alex Wood and Minor—definitely have gotten lucky with closers. The Cubs can at least point to Shark and Cashner, but the best the Phillies can do is Jarred Cosart and Vance Worley. Interesting that they had the most pitchers overall, but few of them amounted to much--i.e. “throw it against the wall and see what sticks.” Another way of looking at Cards vs. Cubs is this: The Cards have drafted 116 more wins over 10 years than the Cubs, which could explain 12 games of why we’re usually behind them.
And if you’re thinking “That will probably change soon because of the new regime!,” from the 2011 draft they already have Seth Maness in the bigs and our hopes lie with Dillon Maples and the suspended Andrew McKirahan. And while Michael Wacha (picked #19 in 2012) is tearing it up this year, the best we can hope for from 2012 is Pierce Johnson, Paul Blackburn, and Duane Underwood.
It’s a good thing we’ve been good at drafting hitters.
Jackstraw 2 hours 22 min ago (view)
Thanks, AZ Phil
Craig A. 7 hours 7 min ago (view)
If the cardinals loose and the giants win, the cardinals will have to play and win on Monday to make the playoffs.
crunch 9 hours 35 min ago (view)
...and dodger stadium loses power.
Charlie 10 hours 42 min ago (view)
Game 2 somewhat less fun than game 1.
crunch 11 hours 53 min ago (view)
lester goes out with a whimper...7 runs given up in his last start
5.16era/1.33whip on the year.
Arizona Phil 11 hours 54 min ago (view)
JACKSTRAW: The Cardinals & Tigers will only play the first game of Monday's doubleheader (and it will be a seven-inning game) if what needs to be determined is determined by the result of the first game (the second game will be canceled), but they won't play the games at all (and the Cardinals won't go to Detroit) if everything that is affected by the two missing STL games is settled and resolved by end of MLB play on Sunday.
crunch 13 hours 16 min ago (view)
crunch 15 hours 9 min ago (view)
happ / rizzo / contreras / heyward / bryant / schwarber / baez / kipnis / caratini(DH)
bryant's back, and at 3rd. neat.
Jackstraw 16 hours 55 min ago (view)
I don't know if the math works out but (at least to me) it raises the possibility that they would play one game on Monday and if that decided what was left that they'd skip game 2.
Arizona Phil 21 hours 22 min ago (view)
The Cardinals have to play the doubleheader on Monday at Detroit if either the games impact who or who does not get into the playoffs, or if the games will determine whether the Cards or Cubs finish 1st in the division and get home field advantage in the Wild Card series.
Charlie 22 hours 35 min ago (view)
Maybe he should stick with it for a while.
Hagsag 1 day 2 hours ago (view)
Cardinals have two games left with Detroit, not the Cubs.
blockhead25 1 day 8 hours ago (view)
Ahh, 2 games against the Tigers, but seems to imply they'd only play those games if it will impact which teams make the playoffs. If the Cardinals win their last 2, I don't believe the other games could impact which Team makes it. Why would Detroit have any incentive to win those games? Well, hope the Cubs won one of the next 2 so it doesn't matter.
crunch 1 day 9 hours ago (view)
yeah, it may be another team. i just know they have a possible monday double header...unless i got that wrong, too.
blockhead25 1 day 9 hours ago (view)
Cubs? We played the cards the full 10 slate?
if Cards make playoffs, I would think they'd want nothing to do with having to play a double header Monday to improve playoff seeding.
crunch 1 day 9 hours ago (view)
the cubs may or may not have to play a doubleheader vs STL on monday depending on the next game or 2...i think