Do the Cardinals Really Know How to Draft Pitchers Better?
Much has been made over the Cardinals “voodoo” that suddenly takes no-name pitchers and makes them stars. They seem to do the same with some hitters on occasion, but it’s mostly the pitchers that seem to come out of nowhere.
I wondered if it’s luck or voodoo, or do they really just know how to draft and/or develop pitchers better than other teams. So I went through the last 10 drafts and pulled out the pitchers drafted by 4 teams—the Cards, our Cubs, the Braves (who also seem to have an abundance of young pitching) and the Phillies (who lately as an organization don’t seem to be doing anything well). I listed the pitchers who got to the majors and to eliminate the cup of coffee guys, used 20 Ks as a minimum threshold.
There were a few interesting anomalies: the Cards drafted Michael Stutes but he didn’t sign and later signed with the Phillies, the Cubs originally signed Sonny Gray but he also didn’t sign, and it was fun seeing our own Brian Schlitter’s name in another team’s column.
Here are the results:
|Lynn, Lance||St. Louis Cardinals||52||32||1||666||9.1|
|Miller, Shelby||St. Louis Cardinals||31||20||0||361||8.3|
|Gregerson, Luke||St. Louis Cardinals||24||27||32||431||5.8|
|Wacha, Michael||St. Louis Cardinals||16||7||0||194||5.0|
|Garcia, Jaime||St. Louis Cardinals||43||27||0||484||4.8|
|Ottavino, Adam||St. Louis Cardinals||8||10||4||254||4.6|
|Rosenthal, Trevor||St. Louis Cardinals||5||12||61||245||3.9|
|Kelly, Joe||St. Louis Cardinals||22||20||0||263||3.2|
|Carpenter, David||St. Louis Cardinals||11||11||4||212||1.8|
|Siegrist, Kevin||St. Louis Cardinals||6||5||1||111||1.2|
|Boggs, Mitchell||St. Louis Cardinals||13||15||6||233||0.8|
|McCutchen, Daniel||St. Louis Cardinals||8||11||0||104||0.4|
|Blazek, Michael||St. Louis Cardinals||4||2||0||39||0.4|
|Freeman, Sam||St. Louis Cardinals||3||2||0||64||0.3|
|Gonzales, Marco||St. Louis Cardinals||4||2||0||31||0.1|
|Mortensen, Clayton||St. Louis Cardinals||6||11||0||112||-0.2|
|Lambert, Chris||St. Louis Cardinals||1||3||0||26||-0.8|
|Lyons, Tyler||St. Louis Cardinals||2||8||0||96||-0.8|
|Walters, P.J.||St. Louis Cardinals||6||10||0||104||-2.4|
|Samardzija, Jeff||Chicago Cubs||40||50||1||792||7.9|
|Cashner, Andrew||Chicago Cubs||22||33||0||391||4.9|
|Blevins, Jerry||Chicago Cubs||16||9||2||309||3.4|
|Russell, James||Chicago Cubs||10||17||3||224||1.9|
|Owings, Micah||Chicago Cubs||32||33||1||347||0.7|
|Rusin, Chris||Chicago Cubs||4||9||0||70||0.5|
|Beliveau, Jeff||Chicago Cubs||1||0||1||47||0.4|
|Parker, Blake||Chicago Cubs||2||3||1||85||0.3|
|Veal, Donnie||Chicago Cubs||3||3||1||73||0.2|
|Coleman, Casey||Chicago Cubs||8||13||0||123||-0.9|
|Raley, Brooks||Chicago Cubs||1||2||0||30||-0.9|
|Gallagher, Sean||Chicago Cubs||10||10||1||165||-1.5|
|Kimbrel, Craig||Atlanta Braves||15||11||198||502||11.9|
|Medlen, Kris||Atlanta Braves||34||20||1||434||9.6|
|Hanson, Tommy||Atlanta Braves||49||35||0||648||6.6|
|Wood, Alex||Atlanta Braves||17||16||0||285||5.6|
|Minor, Mike||Atlanta Braves||38||36||0||566||3.8|
|Oberholtzer, Brett||Atlanta Braves||9||18||0||142||3.4|
|Doolittle, Sean||Atlanta Braves||9||10||25||211||3.3|
|Coleman, Louis||Atlanta Braves||5||4||2||185||2.8|
|Devine, Joey||Atlanta Braves||8||3||1||89||2.0|
|Hoover, J.J.||Atlanta Braves||9||15||4||188||1.6|
|Hale, David||Atlanta Braves||6||5||0||60||1.5|
|Rasmus, Cory||Atlanta Braves||4||3||0||77||0.9|
|Shreve, Chasen||Atlanta Braves||1||1||0||34||0.9|
|Locke, Jeff||Atlanta Braves||21||21||0||295||0.6|
|Fields, Josh||Atlanta Braves||7||9||9||130||0.3|
|Simmons, Shae||Atlanta Braves||1||2||1||23||0.3|
|Martin, Cody||Atlanta Braves||2||2||0||23||0.0|
|Gearrin, Cory||Atlanta Braves||3||3||1||68||-0.1|
|Parr, James||Atlanta Braves||1||0||0||26||-0.2|
|Clemens, Paul||Atlanta Braves||4||8||0||65||-1.1|
|Cosart, Jarred||Philadelphia Phillies||15||15||0||172||5.5|
|Worley, Vance||Philadelphia Phillies||29||25||0||366||5.2|
|Griffin, A.J.||Philadelphia Phillies||21||11||0||235||4.3|
|Gibson, Kyle||Philadelphia Phillies||19||19||0||163||3.1|
|Outman, Josh||Philadelphia Phillies||16||11||0||226||2.7|
|Giles, Ken||Philadelphia Phillies||4||2||1||84||2.0|
|De Fratus, Justin||Philadelphia Phillies||7||5||0||124||1.2|
|Pettibone, Jonathan||Philadelphia Phillies||5||5||0||72||1.1|
|Buchanan, David||Philadelphia Phillies||6||13||0||83||0.6|
|Zagurski, Mike||Philadelphia Phillies||1||0||0||75||0.4|
|Stutes, Michael||Philadelphia Phillies||9||3||0||72||0.4|
|Savery, Joe||Philadelphia Phillies||3||2||0||32||0.0|
|Hollands, Mario||Philadelphia Phillies||2||2||0||35||0.0|
|Drabek, Kyle||Philadelphia Phillies||8||15||0||121||-0.1|
|Schwimer, Michael||Philadelphia Phillies||3||2||0||52||-0.1|
|Maloney, Matt||Philadelphia Phillies||5||9||0||59||-0.4|
|Zeid, Josh||Philadelphia Phillies||0||1||1||42||-0.4|
|Diekman, Jake||Philadelphia Phillies||7||11||0||200||-0.5|
|Rosenberg, B.J.||Philadelphia Phillies||4||2||1||52||-0.7|
|Carpenter, Drew||Philadelphia Phillies||1||1||0||33||-0.8|
|Cloyd, Tyler||Philadelphia Phillies||4||9||0||71||-0.8|
|Schlitter, Brian||Philadelphia Phillies||2||6||0||42||-0.9|
|May, Trevor||Philadelphia Phillies||6||9||0||80||-0.9|
|Huff, David||Philadelphia Phillies||25||28||0||229||-1.2|
|Workman, Brandon||Philadelphia Phillies||7||13||0||117||-1.2|
Based on WAR, the Braves actually have fared the best, Cards 2nd and the Phillies and Cubs are quite a ways behind. The Cardinal names that jump out are Lynn, Miller, Gregerson, Wacha, Garcia, Rosenthal, Kelly and now Marco Gonzales. The Braves have Kimbrel, Medlen, Doolittle, Hanson, Jeff Locke, Alex Wood and Minor—definitely have gotten lucky with closers. The Cubs can at least point to Shark and Cashner, but the best the Phillies can do is Jarred Cosart and Vance Worley. Interesting that they had the most pitchers overall, but few of them amounted to much--i.e. “throw it against the wall and see what sticks.” Another way of looking at Cards vs. Cubs is this: The Cards have drafted 116 more wins over 10 years than the Cubs, which could explain 12 games of why we’re usually behind them.
And if you’re thinking “That will probably change soon because of the new regime!,” from the 2011 draft they already have Seth Maness in the bigs and our hopes lie with Dillon Maples and the suspended Andrew McKirahan. And while Michael Wacha (picked #19 in 2012) is tearing it up this year, the best we can hope for from 2012 is Pierce Johnson, Paul Blackburn, and Duane Underwood.
It’s a good thing we’ve been good at drafting hitters.
bradsbeard 1 hour 25 min ago (view)
Since the deal isn't official, I wonder if the Cubs will wait until camp opens to finalize the deal and then put him on the 60 day IL as soon as it's available (assuming it's a major league deal). That doesn't really make sense in light of their luxury tax maneuvering though. If he's gonna miss a third of the season they'd probably only offer a minor league deal I guess.
Arizona Phil 4 hours 28 min ago (view)
Cory Abbott, Ben Hecht, Ryan Lawlor, and Brailyn Marquez were in a separate group on Field #3, so they may be prepping for NRIs to MLB Spring Training.
Arizona Phil 4 hours 29 min ago (view)
And Max Bain threw (long toss) at Instructs this morning, too.
Arizona Phil 4 hours 29 min ago (view)
I can positively confirm that Jerrick Suiter (1B-OF selected by Cubs from Pirates in Minor League Phase of last month';s Rule 5 Draft) is indeed being converted to a RHP. I saw him throw long-toss this morning at Instructs.
Arizona Phil 4 hours 29 min ago (view)
The Cubs have purchased the contract of LHP Adam Choplick from Southern Maryland (Atlantic League) and he has been assigned to AA Tennessee.
Choplick was the 14th round draft pick of the Texas Rangers out of the U. of Oklahoma in 2015, and he was released by the Rangers at the end of Spring Training 2019 (never got higher than AA).
I saw Choplick throw (long-toss) at Instructs this morning and he is one huge dude (6'9 250+).
crunch 5 hours 35 min ago (view)
the entire cubs offseason has been "wow, this guy was good 2-3 years ago, but didn't play or sucked in recent past."
houston finished using their trash can and the cubs are rooting around in it looking for players.
speaking of...it's taken MLB longer to figure out bryant's service time complaint than the entire astros cheating scandal.
crunch 7 hours 12 min ago (view)
"Chicago Cubs selected the contract of LHP Adam Choplick from Southern Maryland Blue Crabs."
okay. sure. congrats and good luck.
Charlie 9 hours 56 min ago (view)
Good for Nick. Good luck to him and the Reds improving his defense. That park should very much play to his offense.
Interest in Gennett is strange. If you are going to pick up a bench infielder at this point, shouldn't it be someone with SS chops?
crunch 10 hours 58 min ago (view)
nick castellanos to the reds, 4/64m...opt out after 1 year.
meanwhile, on the cubs front...
"Bruce Levine of 670 The Score reports that the Cubs continue to have interest in free agent Scooter Gennett. "
Sonicwind75 15 hours 19 min ago (view)
There seemed to be a least an tacit understanding between ownership and fans during the rebuild that we as fans should support the organization when it was intentionally underspending and tanking. When it was time to be competitive, you know when the greatest core of Cubs players in my lifetime are in their prime, ownership would make the most of that window. That doesn't appear to be the case with the team shedding around $40 million in salary.
crunch 1 day 1 hour ago (view)
in all honesty, the team is spending a healthy amount that i only jokingly complain about...but...it was not just fans talking about the extra perks the new revenue streams and tv contract would open. it was ownership and front office at points in the past bringing it up.
George Altman 1 day 2 hours ago (view)
What's pretty obvious is that the Cubs 2020 salary budget is $208m AAV. Whatever Theo/Jed can field with that number (existing players, trades, and/or signings). They could generate $100m from Marquee, concerts, Wrigleyville, etc and it's NOT going to translate into more $$$ for players. Very sad, frustrating, and maddening.
crunch 1 day 6 hours ago (view)
maybe if the cubs can squeeze a 5th in-season concert at wrigley they can sign addison russell.
Charlie 1 day 7 hours ago (view)
Morosi reporting that the Reds are favorites for Castellanos. Seems like a good direction for them if they can deal with his defense in LF. They look to have the best sarting rotation in the division (or close to it) as things stand. If they can squeeze more offense out of the OF and skate by with their bullpen, they could hang reasonably close to the Cards-Brewers-Cubs pack. I'll be curious to see how much money they throw at him if they do sign him. Being younger has to get him more money than Ozuna, right?
Charlie 1 day 10 hours ago (view)
Sure would be nice to rehab a player and then have them stick around and help out the team. Fingers crossed for Souza.
Arizona Phil 1 day 13 hours ago (view)
BRADSBEARD: Unfortunately the video doesn't show how his knee looked the day after the workout, whether he can run and take BP two days in a row, if he needs to take pain meds before or after he does physical activity, and/or if he has to have his knee drained every couple of weeks.