Cubs @ Giants: Series Thread (Games 98-101)

The Cubs will spend their final four games before the 2022 trade deadline visiting the Giants in San Francisco. See below for daily matchups.


Game 98, Thursday, July 28, 8:45 pm central

CHC: LHP Justin Steele (4-6, 4.02 ERA)

SFG: LHP Alex Wood (6-8, 4.21 ERA)


Game 99, Friday, July 29, 9:15 pm central

CHC: RHP Marcus Stroman (2-5, 4.38 ERA)

SFG: RHP Alex Cobb (3-4, 4.26 ERA)


Game 100, Saturday, July 30, 8:05 pm central

CHC: LHP Drew Smyly (3-5, 3.93 ERA)

SFG: RHP Jakob Junis (4-2, 2.98 ERA)


Game 101, Sunday, July 31, 6:08 pm central

CHC: RHP Adrian Sampson (0-1, 3.20 ERA)

SFG: LHP Carlos Rodon (8-6, 3.18 ERA)

Comments

alzolay to throw a pen session sometime this weekend.  neat.

it'll be interesting to see if the cubs still want him to attempt to be a starter or if it's pen time.

i'll take either, but i think he could be a force in the pen...a possible future closer if his body will let him go back to back games.

It seems like pen time. He really needed to spend this year developing a way to take on lefties to have a good shot as a starter. Injuries have outpaced development.

He does seem more like a pen arm at this point but I think he fits more of a once through the order, 2-3 innings role. There are guys who definitely project as closers or short relief  (Ethan Roberts, Ben Leeper, etc) and I think there's definitely room for short relievers in todays game but Alzolay has shown an ability to hold his stuff for multiple innings and for more than 20-30 pitches.

oh snap, watching the HOU game and there was an ad for the World Baseball Classic.

it's back in march 2023.

i'm a big fan, love it.

marcus stroman was the MVP of the 2017 games (last held).

Mets get Tyler Naquin from Reds. Might make Happ to NY less likely.

traded for an 18 year old and a 19 year old.  did the cubs trade GMs with the reds sometime recently?

with contreras on the clock and nearly 100% gone by the deadline we may only see him get HBP 2-3 more times as a cub.

he leads the NL with HBP (19).  the AL leader is rizzo (16).

The HBP was the 2016 team's secret weapon that propelled them to a championship! Can't teach those kind of skills!

...although Carlos Zambrano may beg to differ --

https://youtube.com/watch?v=NDZPN0mjaAA&feature=share

f'n love zambrano...woo.

That is fantástico!

 

In all seriousness, you may think I'm kidding but I'm not!  The Cubs led the NL in HBP in 2016 with 96 and had 5 players in double digits (Bryant, Rizzo, Russell, Fowler, and Baez). Slacker Willson hadn't polished his pissing-the-other-team-off skills yet and only contributed four HBP that year. 

Last night after David Ross' double bird, I immediately looked at Twitter. There was already a screen shot of it posted 19 seconds ago. I know that when I'm streaming at home, if I put the game on 2 tvs, they never line up so I imagine the timing is slightly different everywhere.. but even if I laughed for awhile, took a couple seconds to open twitter and have it refresh... that tweet appeared on my phone faster than Hector Villanueava could run to first on a weak grounder.

j.pederson (SF) goes on the 7d concussion list after crashing into the wall last night

contreras and happ are in the lineup friday

At a South Bend Cubs game tonight. They just gave up five runs in the top of an error-filled third inning. I hate to say it, but they're playing like a bunch of minor leaguers...

Wade Miley made a rehab start here tonight (South Bend). Did not look sharp. 2.1 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 1 BB, 1 K. 

Btw, the SB Cubs won 7-6 in extras (10 innings) on a wild pitch. Devers and Bigge looked impressive on the mound after Miley's mediocre rehab start. 

Just a reminder that the trade deadline isn't until next Tuesday 6pm (Eastern), Aug 2nd. I reflexively thought it was this Sunday, but it's not. 

happ to contreras to get flores at the plate.

i've already let go of contreras cuz that seems to be happening, but i would like to see happ stick around for 2023...big chance both are gone, though.  *shrug*

Ex-Cub sightings with La Stella and Vosler. Nice to see him (Jason) crack The Show after spending so much time in AAA. 

Well, Cubbies beat the Giants 4-2!  Katie Nolan of Apple TV says, "It's like waking up with good hair on the day you're getting a haircut."

the apple tv "hey young people, get your baseball here" announce crews are really devisive on the internet.  i don't mind it, and yeah it's a bit of pandering sometimes, but the product on whole is quality.  i'm not a fan of some of the extended tiny-dual-split-screen stuff they do...that's my only major complaint.

the camera work is really good even if the announcers aren't everyone's thing.  they use drones extensively, but not excessively in between the action on the field.

The broadcasts themselves look really nice, but you can tell there's a lack of experience in the booth and also from the production team. Last night everyone in the booth missed the fact that the Wisdom double down the line bounced out of play (off the net) making it a ground rule double. They were all confused why Nico didn't score and why the ump put his arms up if the ball was ruled fair. Frequently they will say "let's go to x person" or "can we get a shot of x" and it just won't happen like someone in the truck is asleep or something. These are things that I think can improve with time, but it is a bit frustrating to watch the broadcasts. 

Anyone have insight to the Seattle prospects the Reds got for Luis Castillo?

SEA paid huge.

noelvi marte is extremely high end and edwin arroyo is rather high end, himself.  both will be top-100 overall prospects in MLB, the lower half (1-50) of that top-100.  getting a couple extra kids on top of that haul is nice even if one is a struggling starter and the other a pen arm.

it would be like the cubs giving up christian hernandez and james triantos, only that almost every team would rather have the combo marte/arroyo over hernandez/triantos...that's just the closest in-house comparison though it's not an even comparison.

the reds still have tyler mahle to get rid of (also with another year of club control left) and they should have a hell of a farm system going into 2023.

c.martin to dodgers

For Zach McKinstry

happ is probably good as gone with this pickup

ultimately he's wish.com zobrist, but I can't imagine he's going to be in iowa til september.

Just reading the mlbtraderumors write up but sounds like we got another AAAA player.  Sorry to be negative but doesn't sound like much upside. Just an organizational depth piece that can play a bunch of positions with a weak bat. But what do I know, maybe the grit factor is high with him. 

Zach McKinstry will be out of minor league options in 2023, so he will have no value as a 4-A shuttle utllity guy beyond 2022. 

yeah, his greatest value is that he can play 2nd/3rd and corner OF (and SS in a pinch).

bat isn't starter quality, lot of contact hitting, not much walking or striking out.  his upside does lean to good bench, rest replacement guy, and injury replacement option.  total role player...plus, he's a lefty.

as far as happ's leaving and his immediate replacement, this isn't the guy.  i just feel like mckinstry is destined to quickly get onto the MLB club while a guy like nelson velaquez takes over a majority of LF duty.

Presuming he isn't optioned to the minors (the Cubs already have 13 position players on the 26-man roster, so they need a 13th pitcher to replace Chris Martin, not a 14th position player), McKinstry is probably more of an immediate roster replacement for Alfonso Rivas than anyone else. It's not that McKinstry plays 1B like Rivas (he does not), but he does provide a bat-first LH hitting INF-OF utility guy (something the Cubs do not have at present). 

The reason the Cubs were able to recall Mark Leiter Jr from AAA even though he had not spent at least 15 days on Optional Assignment is because he was recalled to replace a player on the active list who was traded (Chris Martin). Normally a pitcher (or two-way player) must spend at least 15 days on Optional Assgnment to the minors before he can be recalled, and a position player must spend at least ten days on Optional Assignment to the minors before he can be recalled.

The exceptions are if a player is recalled to replace a player who is placed on an MLB inactive list (IL, Bereavement, Paternity, etc), or to replace a player who is traded (like Chris Martin was) or claimed off waivers - AS LONG AS  - the player who is traded or claimed off waivers was not Designated fior Assignment prior to being traded or claimed off waivers.

Also, if a player on Optional Assignment to the minors is traded and then is optioned to the minors by his new club - WITHIN 24 HOURS - of being acquired, however many days the player spent on Optional Assignment with his previous club (prior to the trade) counts toward the minimum number of days the player must spend on Optional Assignment before he can be recalled. 

However, if a player on Optional Assignment is claimed off waivers and then is optioned to the minors by his new club, however many days the player spent on Optional Assignment to the minors prior to being claimed off waivers does NOT count toward the minimum number of days the player must spend on Optional Assignment before he can be recalled. 

If the Cubs trade Happ and do not acquire another MLB-ready LF, then Nelson Velazquez will almost certainly become the primary LF, with McKinstry taking a back-up role in LF (and RF, 3B, and 2B). It's also very possible that Darius Hill could get called up from AAA Iowa if Happ is traded, with both Hill and Velazquez getting starts in LF. 

cubs are delaying their lineup for tonight...read into that whatever you will.

lineups in, contreras + happ playing.  activate hug watch and last-minute-sub watch.

slight delay while they finish up clearing the field after retiring will clark's number in SF...

Phil, can a team trade for Miley if he's on the IL? I'm thinking Cubs send over 80% of what's he's owed with him for a PTBNL. Is this legal/possible?

childerb3: A player on the IL - CAN - be traded without restriction. Also, time spent on the IL prior to being traded counts toward the minimum number of days a player must spend on the IL before he can be reinstated. So your scenario regarding Wade Miley could happen.  

However, with one exception a player cannot be placed on Outright Assignment Waivers until he is both certified healthy enough to play and eligible to be reinstated from the IL. The only exception is an injured player can be placed on Outright Assignment Waivers beginning on the day after the conclusion of the MLB regular season up until the date that off-season reserve lists are submitted in November (it will be November 18th in 2022 because November 20th falls onh a Sunday). 

Thanks Phil. Highly doubtful this happens but we can hope!!

Phil, sorry, another question. This one about prospects who won't get added to 40man but are Rule 5 eligible. 

Here's the scenario I'm curious about: Kohl Franklin doesn't get added to 40man. He doesn't get drafted in MLB phase of Rule5. He becomes a MiLB FA. He signs with Cubs. If this happens, he's eligible for Rule 5 again in 2023. 

What's off about that potential sequence of events?

BTW, hoping Kohl Franklin's gets added to 40man. But we have a lot of guys that need to be added. A few worthy guys won't make it.

Thanks Phil

childersb3: If Kohl Franklin is not added to the 40 post-2022 and then he is not selected in the 2022 Rule 5 Draft, he would not become a free-agent. He would remain on the Cubs Domestic Reserve List and would be Rule 5 Draft eligible again post-2023, presuming he hasn't been added to the 40 by then. He is not eligible to be an MLB Rule 9 minor league 6YFA until post-2024 (again, that's presuming he hasn't been added to the 40 by that time). 

Forgot about 6yr FA part. Thanks. So every MiLB player is on a 6yr deal technically with two chances in the Rule 5. 

 childersb3: It's actually seven minor league seasons with six renewals. Also, 100% MLB seasons don't count, so (for example) Anderson Espinoza spent the entire 2020 season on the MLB 60-day IL, so that season  wouldn't count toward the seven minor league seasons he would need to be a MLB Rule 9 minor league if he were to be outrighted. As it turns out, by the end of the 2022 season he will have seven other seasons that do count. 

Appreciate it  

Phil, to confirm...if Carlos Correia opts out this year, he is not subject to a qualifying offer since he got one last year. Correct?

 

 

azbobbop: That is correct. If Carlos Correa opts out of his contract post-2022, he will be a totally unrestricted free-agent. A player can receive a QO only once in his career, and it doesn't matter if he accepts it or declines it. 

BTW, with the Qualifying Offer system srill in effect going forward, if the Cubs don't get what they feel is a reasonable offer for Willson Contreras prior to the Trade Deadline, they should keep him, extend him a QO post-2022 World Series, and either he accepts it and the Cubs get him for another year on a one year contract, or he rejects the QO and the Cubs get a 2023 comp draft pick between the 2nd & 3rd rounds (presuming he signs a 2023 major league contract with another MLB club prior to the 2023 draft). 

So the Cubs don't necessarily NEED to trade Contreras, but they do need to trade Robertson and Givens because no way they get a QO.  

Thanks Phil. This tells me Correia is at the top of the Cubs shopping list next winter 

I-Cub mainstay Dixon Machado swapped to Giants. Gonna miss him. Walks more than he Ks, always plays & has some snappy salsa walk-up music that got real familiar since he led the team in GPs & ABs. Good for him.

rivas to iowa, mcK up

been watching a lot of HOU this year when games are close and CHC or ARZ aren't playing...they got that 2016 cubs magic of expecting wins and getting wins even when they're down or the game is tied.  fun team to watch this year.

rooting for dusty to get that manager ring to match his player ring...you know, since the cubs probably won't go on a 40 game winning streak anytime soon...just assuming...

And Mach(ad)o man in the lineup tonight on ESPN. From the Raccoon River to McCovey Cove overnight.

eric uelemen with another great outing.

scott effross is destined (most likely) to be the cubs closer when robertson leaves, but uelemen is looking great.  they seem to want uelemen to be a multi-inning guy who gets some rest between outings.

-edit- and like that, dude HBP's 2 guys in his last 3 faced.  sigh.

But also pitches his way out of trouble. No harm, no foul!

wtf...why the hell did the cubs trade effross away?

to the yanks for hayden wesneski...

i mean, wesneski isn't junk, but wow.  effross is a true "inning" guy...effective vs lefties and righties...lots of club control left.

Love this trade 

Wasn't expecting it, but love it.

You build a winner with top 5 hitters and SPs. 7th/8th inning RPs are nice pieces. But you need top building blocks.

Don't know if Wesneski will be a top 3 SP, but I'll take a top 5 Yankee for a 28 yr old rookie RP anytime.

We all liked/loved Effross. Great story. Huge success this yr. But we need SPs. 

Jed took a good chance here. 

Cubdom on Twitter just doesn't get it. I want them to spend 250mil every yr. Ricketts aren't doing that. So we have to do these things. 

We also have to fix the holistic system issue of not producing consistent arms and hitting talent like the 200mil+ spending teams do.

We have some real talent in the system at all positions. This trade fits the rebuild.

Hayden Wesneski was the Yankees consensus #6 prospect and will certainly slot into the Cubs Top 10 along with Caleb Kilian, Jordan Wicks, and D. J. Herz,

Weneski is Rule 5 Draft eligible post-2022, so the Cubs will need to add him to the 40 post-2022 (if he isn't called up prior to the conclusion of the season). 

It's not often that a club can get a healthy near MLB-ready SP prospect like this for a RP (even a really good RP like Scott Effross). 

I think it's a good move, Phil. And by July next year some combination of Stroman, K. Thompson, Steele, Kilian, Wesneski, Alzolay, Wicks, Herz should be the Rotation. The other 3 being their MIRP contingent.

Since I didn't see this front office going for Musgrove even if he hadn't signed an extension. 

I would love Bogaerts/Turner/Correa if they could land 1 of those.

I don't disagree that this could be a good trade, but if they want to compete next year, they need to add at least one legit TOR or close to TOR SP. That rotation is not an October rotation.

That said, it's good to have a lot of depth when it comes to your BOR starters 

MLB TOR starters are made not born. There is no way to predict who be a TOR SP.

Greg Maddux looked like shit his first full season in MLB and now he's in the Hall of Fame.

Jacob deGrom was projected as a #3 or #4 SP when he was in the Mets system and and then he won a Cy Young Award.

Corey Kluber was projected as (at best) a BOR SP when he was coming up with SD and CLE and then he won a Cy Young (twice). 

There is just no way to predict in advance who will be an MLB TOR SP. Could be Keegan Thompson. Could be Justin Steele. Could be Hayden Wesneski. Maybe all three or maybe none of the three.

It's a matter of making it to MLB, and then continue to develop and take your game to the next level. The ones who do that will be a TOR SP. 

The more candidates the better. 

Cast a wide net and keep an open mind. 

I get that. I do (although some of them seem born for TOR status-- I.e. Verlander, Kershaw, etc).

But do you genuinely look at that group of SP with no FA or trade additions and think we're heading to the postseason? I struggle to see it. I'd love it if it happened, but it's very difficult to picture.

Also I do want to say while it caught me offguard, I'm not one of the people who seem ready to burn Wrigley to the ground over todays trade. I think it's a trade that has the potential to work very well for both teams. I'm just not sure about the impact in 2023.

DJL: I don't think the Cubs right now are planning on contending next season, but that doesn't mean they won't at least try and sign a significant FA SP and a Carlos Correa or Xander Bogaerts this coming off-season.

If they can do that, they would probably see 2023 differently, but if they can't sign a significant FA SP and a Correa or a Bogaerts, the rebuild continues into 2024-25. I don't see an in-between position. 

FWIW, I don't think the Cubs plan on contending next season, and I also don't believe current ownership will attempt to sign a big name/big ticket free agent over the winter.

I believe the Ricketts have decided and passed down to management that the next iteration of the Cubs will have to grow to contender status internally through draft and player development and then (and only then) will the Ricketts re-open the checkbook to push the Cubs from contender to serious threat (or substitute your chosen term here).

I see it the same as Cb3, top 5 hitters and SPs is the core.  So in my mind 5 hitters and 3 SPs.  Cubs are going to have to grow and develop 6 of those 8 guys (or develop enough overstock to trade) before the Ricketts splurge again.

Maybe not what I'd do.  Just saying what I think current owners will do.

DraftKings presents: Disappointment.

I'm sure if that's the case, we won't sign more than one of them to an extension.

I could go on a rant about that potential path you laid out. I won't for the moment. Suffice to say, I could very much see you being correct.

JACK: I was thinking exactly like you after last season, except then why did the Cubs spend $100M (including the posting fee) to sign Seiya Suzuki for five years with a FULL NO TRADE, and Marcus Stroman for $25M per year 2022-23 and $21M in 2024 (making him essentially not tradeable, too)?

I get the short term bullpen deals (Robertson, Givens, Martin, and Norris), signing Smyly, Simmons, and Villar with the hope they could be traded at the deadline, and claiming Miley off waivers, as part of a "flip & rebuild" approach (like they did with Scott Feldman, Paul Maholm, et al a decade ago) while waiting for the prospects to develop, but the Suzuki and Stroman contracts don't fit that blueprint. 

I remember Epstein / Hoyer saying that signing Edwin Jackson post-2012 was a mistake, not because of his performance, but because the Cubs weren't anywhere close to contending and his bloated contract wasn't tradeable even if he had pitched OK. It would be the height of front office malpractice if he is doing it again with Suzuki and Stroman, when he should know better. 

Was it as simple as needing two signings to keep some folks coming to ballpark and watching Marquee? Hopefully the Ricketts/Jed aren't that ridiculous.  I'd trade Stro and send 70% of his salary with him to purchase a better prospect. If Suzuki didn't have the NTC I'd do the same with him. I'm all about the teardown and building through the system. It would be nice to spend 200+mil per yr but our system isn't there yet. 

So go get Xander/Trea/Dansby/Correa. I'm all in. Nothing wrong with signing Rodon. But we have to draft better in mid to late 1st Rd when we win. We have to develop arms better and more consistently. 

Theo maxed out his system fora run at a 2nd title. He also knew he wasn't staying past 10 yrs so he wasn't concerned with sustainable development. It's on Jed to correct the historically bad long term farm system we've had.

I think he and his folks are doing well so far in that process 

I think Hoyer has learned from the major errors made by the Epstein administration.  Never let the bulk of the core of your team reach free agency at the same time, and never rape your top prospects for a tiny increase in poor odds to win it all in your current "window".  I think that they will let the farm system provide one or two good players each year, and sign one or two really good free agents each winter, staggered over a number of years (hopefully forever).  The goal should be to be one of the top 5 or 6 teams each year, rather than to be the top team one year.  The top team going into the season seldom wins it all.  MLB baseball short playoff's are too random and too variable to bankrupt your farm system in order to increase your chances of winning the World series from 12 percent to 14 percent.  The long term goal shoud be to win your division most of the time over a period of 10 to 15 years.  The World Series victories will come.

I agree Phil. I don't see them attempting to compete next year either. I don't know that I see them even mildly trying until 2025 at earliest. They're going to see their first really serious case of fan disengagement if that's the plan, I hope. Then again, if it doesn't hurt them financially, I don't think they'll care.

brews traded josh hader to padres...relief pitching is hot.

By acquiring Josh Hader the Padres add payroll and are now less than $1M AAV under the 2022 $230M CBT threshhold, so if Contreras and/or Happ and/or a reliever go to SD, the Cubs would be in a position to take back significant AAV in the deal (Wil Myers AAV $13M+ or Eric Hosmer AAV $23M).

Myers has a $20M club option or $1M buy-out post-2022, and Hosmer has a front-loaded contract that cuts back to $13M per year 2023-25 although the AAV remains at $23M (which is bad for SD going forward). 

Also, Hosmer has a player opt-out post-2022 which he almost certainly will not exercise if he stays with a contender like SD (again, that's bad for the Padres' payroll 2023-25), but he very well might opt out if gets traded to a non-contender like the Cubs (or Nationals in a Juan Soto trade). 

If the Cubs do trade Contreras and/or Happ and/or a reliever to San Diego and do the Padres a solid by taking back a "bad" (high AAV) contract as part of the deal, IMO the Cubs must at least get C Luis Campusano and RHSP Jarlin Susana (the best pitcher in the ACL). 

Quite the surprise, wasn't expecting him to get moved.  Once I got over the shock I can see how it makes sense to trade a middle reliever for an MLB ready starter.  Just reading scouting reports, sounds like mid rotation type of guy that's ready to break into the major.   

Enjoyed Effross but relievers are so fickle. Makes sense to trade up to a potential controlled starter versus a controlled bullpen arm.

Would it be fair to look as this as trading for another pitcher like Killian; polished and at cusp of being MLB ready?  

very similar to killian (in outlook, not stuff).

effross's changeup this year has been such a great development he's been using a lot more than the past.  the sinker, the slider, and now the change...great vs lefties and righties.

i don't mind the trade, but i feel like the cubs gave up a strong arm that could be our closer (most likely was going to be closer after the traded deadline).  yeah, effross doesn't bring it high 90s or anything, but he's got 3 solid pitches with command and control.

cubs need SP.  SP is always a trade premium if you have excess.  it's not a bad gamble, but they gave up an already-here strong arm.

Kilian was exactly what I thought when I saw the outlook on Wisnewski.

I think it's usually wise to cash in on RP when you can but man... this feels like they're betting really big on their ability to develop RP, both through the system and rummaging in the scrap heap. Which, admittedly, they've done well at the past couple years, though Effross was certainly part of that. Not sure exactly how I feel about this trade if they're actually hoping to compete next year.

With Weneski's already extreme wide variety of pitches in his repertoire (he throws - SIX - distinctly different pitches -- a 4SFB, a 2SFB, a CT, a SL, a CH, and a CV), he would seem to be a perfect candidate for the Pitch Lab, where he can be taught to tunnel his three or four most-effective pitches and then junk the other two or three that don't fit.   

I like this trade.  They will have other guys come up and be successes as relief pitchers (heck, they might've already successfully replaced Effross with Uelmen) but starting pitchers are harder to find and they will need a whole bunch of them in the next few years, so why not take a crack at another one?

With Scott Effross being traded for a player not on the 40 and with at least one slot now open in the Cubs MLB pen (maybe one or two more after they trade Robertson and Givens), I expect either Raynel Espinal (acquired from SF yesterday in the Dixon Machado trade) or Nicholas Padilla to get called up to Chicago for a trial. Both are eligible to be minor league free agents if they are not added to the 40 after the World Series, so might as well see what they got.