Cubs @ Brewers: Arrieta vs. Nelson (Game 101 Thread)

CHC (53-47): RHP Jake Arrieta (11-6, 2.61)

MIL (44-58): RHP Jimmy Nelson (8-9, 3.97)

First pitch: 7:10pmCT

Fowler# cf

Schwarber* lf

Coghlan* 3b

Rizzo* 1b

Soler rf

Castro ss

Ross c

Arrieta p

Russell 2b

 

Parra* cf

Lucroy c

Braun rf

Lind* 1b

Gomez Davis lf

Gennett* 2b

Segura ss

Perez 3b

Nelson p

Arrieta gave up 3 ER in 6 innings and lost to the now-surging (and Hamels-less) Phills on Saturday. He’s 4-1 with a 1.72 in July. The Brewers are 24-94 (.255) against him. Braun is 3-8 with a HR.* The almost-Met Gomez is 3-10 with a HR.

Nelson (7 IP, 0 ER) won in AZ his last time out. July (3-1, 2.08) has been his best month this year. Lefties are hitting .302 against him. In his two starts against the Cubs this year, he is 0-1 with a 3.95. The Cubs are 23-81 (.284) against him. Coghlan is 4-12 with a HR. Rizzo is 2-10 with a HR.

Bryant gets a day off, and Zobrist Coghlan fills in--because why not. Montero is close to a return. It’s just a matter of how much pain he is willing to play through.

The Cubs are quiet on the trade front. But if the most reliable of the chatter is to be believed, it appears they are desperately trying to move Castro for a 4th/5th starter who would be under control for a couple of years--e.g., Andrew Cashner, Tyson Ross, Nate Karns, or Julio Teheran. Gyorko might also be involved in a Padre deal. Gallardo has also been mentioned, which doesn’t seem wise. Opening up SS for Russell, bringing up a rehabbed Baez to play 2B, and filling a spot in the rotation seem like a solid plan, especially if all it costs is Castro.
                                                                                                                          
Go Cubs!

Comments

so nice to see schwarb in LF when ross is catching. coghlan at 3rd...neat...i think.

Rough one for the Mets: Up 2 runs in the 9th at home, 2 outs, nobody on...then a downpour and a 44-mnute rain delay. After the delay -- single, single, Upton HR -- then another rain delay of almost 3 hours before they come back and get shut down by Kimbrall in the bottom of the 9th to lose. Ouch.

game starts...another night of "dugout watch" begins.

Castro's fucking AB with Rizzo at 3rd and 1 out. Wtf.

Swings at first pitch. foul. 2nd pitch grooved down the middle FB. Looks at it. 3rd pitch slider bounces in front of plate and way outside. Waves at it. End of AB. He's guessing all the time. Not even looking at the ball.

He is best when he isn't trying to guess. He did that under Sveum, and it's clear Mallee is trying to get him to work the count. I wish they'd stop trying to get him to do that. Last year he just did his thing and he was fine. Not everybody can work the count. Just let him go up there hacking, dammit. That's what he does. He can't work a count. If the Cubs trade him, some team is going to figure that out and he's going to be good again and the Cubs will have received half the value they should have.

It seems like he is purposely sabotaging any trade possibilities. "Perfect" timing. I keep reading they are "aggressively" trying to put him in any deal, and of course - I would too. In some ways this mgmt team missed the boat on several items: NOT trading Castro in the offseason, EJax, and DJ LeMay... The latter really hurt. Could you imagine him at 2nd and Russell at short?

DJ wasn't really a loss. His OPS was under 700 the last two seasons. We would have complained if he was given tons of at bats. He's having a career year this year, and part of it is a Coors effect (150 points higher OPS at home)

Nah. I totally disagree. Two years of Ian Stewart PLUS solid IF play, high contact rate, AND career All Star year. Yeah ... he was a loss.

The trade sucked, yes, I noted that a few days ago on a post highlighting the new regime's worst deals. Stewart didn't work out. But getting rid of LeMahieu wasn't the mistake. From 2012-2014 with the Rockies he was 278/317/366 (683). Ryan Theriot from 2007-2009 with the Cubs: 286/353/358 (711). And he ws SOOO loved by everyone on here by the end of his tenure. We would have run LeMahieu out of town if he had put up those numbers for the Cubs over 3 seasons. He has essentially no power and his stolen base % is only 65%. We'd have cursed yet another light hitting, poor base running second basemen on the team!

And the career year this year seems to be a huge Coors effect and a lot of luck. His .384 BABIP is not sustainable and is 55 points higher than his career prior to this. I'm happy for the kid, he's enjoying a fine season. And maybe this is the start of him playing at a higher level more consistently. But I'm pretty confident it is not and when we look back in 3-4 years we'll see 2015 as an anomaly.

Perhaps, but he was a 2.2 WAR last year as a GG 2B, and 1+ this year. 2B are not known for power really...with obvious exceptions in Brandon Phillips, Ryno, Chase Utley. Compared to the players who manned the position full time for the Cubs during the same period, DJ could have been worthwhile to have kept. We will see moving forward, however. You were the same person who said "Josh Donaldson is not going to amount to much...", right? Or, is that someone else?

Well Barney was 4.6 WAR in 2012...  Honestly, I don't remember my thoughts on Donaldson at the time. That was 7 years ago. But I do remember liking the trade a lot and still do. Harden was dominant down the stretch, can't ask for more than he provided in a deadline deal. We also got Syndal Gaudin as a bonus. In that case, you had to give up something to get something. The Cubs gave up 4 prospects and one of them blossomed. It happens.  If only the Dodger series...   

I was in favor of the Harden deal at the time. What people here thought at the time: http://www.thecubreporter.com/2008/07/09/when...

Didn't see ANYONE complaining about the loss of Josh Donaldson in that thread. There was a mention that AZ Phil "ranked (him) as the number one Cubs prospect to start the year. He struggled out of the gate this season in Peoria, but had started to turn things around a bit in June."

...and also the Cubs effect. He is 13-20 against the Cubs.

He was at 48% with man on third less than two outs before that AB. League avg is 52%. He is particularly good at striking out badly or finding a double play. The dude is just fried. Give him some laid back San Diego sunshine on a shit team for 5 years and let him be an all star. I've had it. It's kind of important to knock in those runs. Now we are about to get our asses handed to us by another team that sucks and traded away a bunch of talent. Yay.

I guess that comment was made before his defensive gem and his rally starting hit. I think the problem with Castro is they're trying to turn him into an OBP machine. Just let it go, Mallee, he isn't that type of hitter and never will be. The Great Maddonnini and Mallee are making the same mistake with Castro as Sveum did. What's worse, Castro is buying into it, because he loves Maddon. Just let the guy go up there and hack. He's a terrible guesser. He takes good pitches and swings at bad. I liked him better when he swung at everything and at least got a lot of hits, and didn't GDIP eight times a game.

Also every starting pitcher we face has the best start of his life. Isn't that kind of saying something?

WOW! Sweet 18

RIZZO!!!!!! 3r HR in the top 8th. 3-2 cubs. unf.

That was a frickin laser.

I was resigned to our fate for this game until I saw Nelson throw himself a party walking off the mound after striking out Bryant. Then he looks back at Cubs' dugout (either taunting, in a wolfman state, or responding to a Cubs' catcall) but no matter what I wanted that fucker to lose his W. Thank you mr Tony Four Sacks!

i was in no mood for the cubs to not even put up a fight against a brewers team taking on arrieta who also lost one of their best hitters today. also, the cubs can probably look forward to parra being gone before tomorrow's game...maybe.

Just an observation. But has anyone noticed that Herrera has the exact setup and stance as Castro except from the left side? He taps the plate with one handed bat and sets up with that lead foot open. I wonder if they have had the same coach etc at some point?

The difference is that Herrera is a switcher, so he doesn't bail out on every pitch.

I don't know how this team is 7 games over .500. They are mentally tough at times ... but somehow I think they all owe Bosio a lot of beers.

Amen, brother.

Loved the ABs by Bryant and Schwarber in the 9th. Runners on base, put the ball in play -- good things happen. Very nicely done!

Since the AS break, the Cubs two "leadoff" men are doing their jobs -- Russell's OBP is .364, Fowler's is an insane .518. Need to start bringing them home a bit more often. Still waiting for a few easy wins....

Hey San Diego and Atlanta (and Mets) Castro started a big rally in the 8th inning! And he made this play on defense. He's awesome: http://mlb.mlb.com/r/video?content_id=315184583

Btw the Cubs are linked to Teheran, and the Braves are interested in Soler. May offer more with Teheran. But Teheran despite being a great competitor has show a drop in velocity and is sparring with his hitting coach. All that said I don't see the Cubs parting with Soler?

At the risk of sounding like a Cubs fan who can't part with prospects, I don't want to see them part with Soler. His bat is showing signs of life again, although he is still missing those low sliders some - but also not swinging at quite as many. He could be pretty special still. He really scalds the ball. And as good as Bosio is, he can't add velocity to a fastball.

Yes I agree. The velocity thing is a major red flag. Especially for a top notch prospect. I'd be surprised if they did it.

Teheran has been frustrating for me personally as I have him in three fantasy leagues, but when he's right, he's a #1/#2. I'd prefer to keep Soler and see how he develops, but... Plus he's only 24.

I'm not against it, which surprises me. I think Soler will adjust and be great ... and modern pitchers are delicate. But I agree with your assessment. I'm (predictably) fearful that he's headed for TJS but that is likely an overreaction to reduced velocity. Do you have a guess as to why his velocity is down?

I don't, but I just read an article from June that says his velocity is actually up "a tick" from last year.

Well that's interesting. Ha! Okay then ...

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  • Cubster 5 hours 1 min ago (view)

    per Tribune: Kimbrel's OK, just working on his changeup (formerly his fastball).

     

  • Arizona Phil 17 hours 21 min ago (view)

    The Cubs have released RHRP (and their erstwhile closer) Brandon Morrow. There is no indication that they plan to re-sign him to another (different) 2020 minor league contract without the Article XX-B $100K retention bonus provision (as happened with Jason Kipnis last week).  

     

  • crunch 20 hours 47 min ago (view)

    rizzo takes another day off (lower back).  ross says the club is "exercising caution."

    klye ryan is expected to join the team tomorrow after some mysterious holdup.

     

  • Ryno 21 hours 24 min ago (view)

    Has anyone seen Darvish's pitch "The Supreme"?  Isn't it just a sinker?

     

  • Ryno 21 hours 32 min ago (view)

    In other words:  This lineup sucks.

     

  • Arizona Phil 21 hours 50 min ago (view)

    Jason Kipnis was released on June 29th and then he was re-signed to a new (different) 2020 minor league contract that does not require a $100K retention bonus if he is not added to the Cubs MLB Reserve List by 2020 MLB Opening Day (7/23).  

    Brandon Morrow remains on his original 2020 minor league contract which pays him a $100K retention bonus if he is not released by 7/18 or added to the Cubs MLB Reserve List by 7/23. 

     

  • Eric S 21 hours 54 min ago (view)

    There is that re Kimbrel - at worst, just another year on the books.

     July 1st is Bobby Bonilla Day - the day that check is cut and paid annually. 

     

  • Cubster 22 hours 48 sec ago (view)

    On the bright side regarding Kimbrel. It doesn't have the lasting bad side as the Mets arrangement with Bobby Bonilla. Unless they want to re-negotiate Kimbrel's terms.

     

  • Eric S 23 hours 27 min ago (view)

    Yep

    Watching the last night's highlight clip was not encouraging either as discussed here:  https://www.bleachernation.com/cubs/2020/07/08/craig-kimbrels-intrasquad-performance-is-a-reminder-of-the-concerns-that-already-existed/

     

  • crunch 1 day 4 hours ago (view)

    i still can't believe this front office paid anyone 16m a year to throw 60-70ip...

     

  • Eric S 1 day 13 hours ago (view)

    Unfortunately, Kimbrel in Cub mid season form as well, giving up a two out, two run oppo homer to Willson. 

    Kimbrel Cub stats which I tried to bury but were dug up again: gave up a career high 9 home runs in only 20 2/3 inning, averaged a career high 9.1 hits allowed per 9 innings and served up a 6.53 ERA for his troubles. And no full spring training build up period again.  Still hopeful he's got something left in the tank this year and next but man, he's got my full attention going into the season

     

  • BobbyD 1 day 13 hours ago (view)

    Hmm. Never thought about it that way. Maybe it is a very stable genius? 

     

  • crunch 1 day 16 hours ago (view)

    maybe he's hoping it'll be bad enough to flip the population odometer over to 0 after humanity is wiped from the planet.  let's give him more time to see if he's right before we get too down on him.

     

  • crunch 1 day 16 hours ago (view)

    "Shohei Ohtani threw just 15 of his 50 pitches for strikes in an intrasquad game Tuesday.  Trent Rush had him at eight walks, a hit by pitch and six wild pitches before he was shut down for a day. "

    ow.

     

  • crunch 1 day 16 hours ago (view)

    anthony rizzo is in mid-season form.

    he sat out today with lower back tightness.

     

  • BobbyD 1 day 18 hours ago (view)

    Well, back in February (I think; that was about 17 years ago now), our diaper staining commander in his own mind declared we had 15 cases in the U.S. and that would quickly go to zero. 130k dead and rapidly rising now 4 months later I still have brain dead neighbors in SoCal saying if Biden gets elected we're screwed. I wonder what they think screwed looks like.