Can I Get You a Cup of Coffee?
This is the time of the year when MLB clubs begin to rearrange the deck-chairs, as contenders look to solidify their post-season rosters with a last minute waiver deal or two prior to the August 31st post-season roster eligibility deadline, and clubs that are out of contention bring up players from the minors to get a look at guys who might (or might not) have a future with the club.
Cubs possible September call-ups and roster additions:
Luis Valbuena (oblique) will likely be reinstated from the 15-day DL on or about 9/1, but if it turns out Valbuena is unable to return this season, he could be transferred from the 15-day DL to the 60-day DL if a 40-man roster slot is needed for Ryan Sweeney and Scott Baker. Both Sweeney (if he isn't traded by 8/31) and Baker (if he completes his minor league rehab assignment without another setback) could be reinstated from the 60-day DL on or about September 1st (although reinstating Sweeney and Baker would require one player presently on the 40-man roster to be dropped, either by trade, release, or outright assignment to the minors, or by a 60-day DL assignment),
J. C. Boscan (presently on an Optional Assignment at AAA Iowa) is probably a lock to be recalled on September 1st or at the close of the PCL season (clubs almost always add a third catcher in September), as are Justin Grimm, Eduardo Sanchez, Brooks Raley, Mike Olt, and Alberto Cabrera (who will be out of minor league options in 2013 and thus needs to be closely evaluated at the big league level ASAP). Josh Vitters probably would have been another recall (and he still might be), but he's back on the DL at Iowa with hamstring issues.
It's also possible that if an additional 40-man roster slot is at least temporarily available next month due to trades or injuries, that the Cubs could give someone like Iowa closer Brian Schlitter a look. Schlitter has previous big league experience with the Cubs, and he has battled back from TJS and other physical issues. However, if the Cubs were to call-up Schlitter (which would require him to be added to the MLB 40-man roster), he would have to be really impressive to survive.
There are presently 39 players on the Cubs MLB Reserve List, and another eight on the 60-day DL. (Players on the 60-day DL must be reinstated by 5 PM on the 5th day following the conclusion of the World Series).
Of the 47 (39 on the 40 and eight on ther 60), there are five players who will be Ariticle XX-B MLB free-agents after the conclusion of the 2013 World Series:
CUBS ARTICLE XX-B MLB FREE-AGENTS POST-2013:
Scott Baker, RHP
Kevin Gregg, RHP
Matt Guerrier, RHP
Dioner Navarro, C
Ryan Sweeney, OF
Of the five, Kevin Gregg is probably the most-likely to be traded this month. Most clubs in contention want to cement their bullpen with veteran relievers with closer experience, and Gregg certainly fits that description. The Cubs will likely be building their future bullpen around Pedro Strop and a collection of young arms, so Gregg really has no future with the Cubs (and he just barely has a present). So if the Cubs can pick-up a young arm with potential--even if it's a "lottery" type prospect from the DSL--they probably will move Gregg by the August 31 deadline.
Dioner Navarro would have value to any contending club looking to simultaneously upgrade their catching depth and their bench. He also actually would have some value to the Cubs over the next two or three years, too, since there isn't much in the way of MLB catching prospects in the Cubs system at this time. As I have mentioned before, I believe Rafael Lopez is probably the one minor league guy who might realistically project as an MLB catcher, but even he would probably be nothing more than a LH-hitting back-up catcher at the big league level. Lopez is already 25 years old (he turns 26 in October) and has yet to play above AA (although he was an all-star at that level this season), and it's not like he'll be big league ready in 2014. (Lopez was a third-baseman at Boston College and at Indian River JC, and then was converted to catcher after he transferred to Florida State... the Cubs drafted him as a 23-year old 5th year senior in 2011, so he won't be Rule 5 eligible until post-2014).
Ryan Seweney was placed on the 60-Day DL with a rib injury on June 30th, so he is eligible to be reinstated from the 60-day DL on August 29th, just in time to get traded to a contender. Now he will have to prove he is is healthy before the Cubs can place him on Trade Waivers, probably by going on a minor league rehab assignment next week. Then once he proves that he's healthy enough to play, the Cubs could put him on Trade Waivers on August 29th, and he would clear waivers at 1 PM (Eastern) on August 31st. Whether is is claimed or not claimed, the Cubs could trade Sweeney by the midnight deadline on August 31st, but if he is claimed the Cubs would be restricted to trading him to just one club (the club that claims him).
Scott Baker (April 2012 TJS rehab) just began a second minor league rehab assignment at Daytona this week, and maybe this time he'll get through it without being shut-down. Baker signed a one-year $5.5M deal with the Cubs last off-season, but he has yet to throw an inning at the big league level this year. There has been talk that Baker would like to come back to the Cubs in 2014, but hopefully this time the Cubs will be smart enough not to give him so much guaranteed money. Maybe it would be better to sign him to a minor league contract with an NRI to Spring Training instead of giving him a major league contract and a spot on the 40-man roster, too.
Matt Guerrier underwent season-ending elbow surgery last week, and will likely miss the next nine months. Guerrier has said that he would like to return to the Cubs in 2014, and that is probably a distinct possibility, since he could sign a 2014 minor league contract and spend the first-half of next season rehabbing at the Cubs new Spring Training & minor league facility at Riverview Park in Mesa. The Cubs have done this in the past with their own minor league free-agents who were rehabbing from surgeries, re-signing guys like Justin Berg and Marcos Mateo to minor league contracts for their rehab season.
So five slots on the 40-man roster should become available post-2013, once Baker, Gregg, Guerrier, Navarro, and Sweeney are declared free-agents on the day after the conclusion of the World Series (if they haven't already been traded).
In addition to the five post-2013 Article XX-B MLB free-agents, there are also ten Cubs players eligible for salary arbitration post-2013:
CUBS ELIGIBLE FOR SALARY-ARBITRATION POSt-2013:
Darwin Barney, INF - $2.5M?
Darnell McDonald, OF - $1M?
Donnie Murphy, INF - $1M?
Cody Ransom, INF - $1M?
James Russell, LHP - $2M?
Jeff Samardzija, RHP - $7M?
Nate Schierholtz, OF- $4M?
Pedro Strop, RHP ("Super Two") - $1.5M?
Luis Valbuena, INF - $1.5M?
Travis Wood, LHP - $3.5M?
Arbitration-eligibles are usually the guys who get non-tendered in December, either because the club wants the player back in the mix for the next season but ONLY if the player agrees to sign a minor league contract (usually with an NRI to Spring Training), or because the club does not want to risk losing in an arbitration hearing.
Of the ten post-2013 arbitration-eligibles, Samardzija, Schierholtz, Wood, Barney, Russell, Strop, and Valbuena are likely to be tendered contracts, while McDonald, Murphy, and Ransom are not, although any or all of the latter three could be non-tendered on 12/2 and then offered 2014 minor league contracts (with an NRI to Spring Training)
Among the remaining 32 players players presently on the Cubs 40-man roster or 60-day DL, six are already signed for 2014:
CUBS PLAYERS SIGNED FOR 2014:
Edwin Jackson, RHP - $11M
Starlin Castro, SS - $5M
Carlos Villanueva, RHP - $5M
Kyuji Fujikawa, RHP - $4M (plus $2M in potential performance bonuses related to GF)
Jorge Soler, OF - $2M
Anthony Rizzo, 1B - $1.75M (plus $1.25M deferred signing bonus)
Unless Fujikawa (who underwent TJS in May) is outrighted to the minors post-2013 (as an NPB veteran he probably has a "no minor league assignment" clause in his contract) or somebody gets traded, all six of the signed players should remain on the Cubs 40-man roster into the 2014 season.
That leaves 26 players presently on the Cubs 40-man roster or 60-day DL who are not signed for 2014, not eligible to be an Article XX-B MLB free-agent, and not eligible for salary arbitration. These players are the guys who are under club control, where the club essentially can dictate the player's salary (albeit restricted by minimum salary limits):
CUBS PLAYERS PRE-ARBITRATION/AUTO-RENEWAL POSt-2013:
Jake Arrieta, RHP
Brian Bogusevic, OF
J. C. Boscan, C
Michael Bowden, RHP
Alberto Cabrera, RHP
Welington Castillo, C
Rafael Dolis, RHP
Cole Gillespie, OF
Justin Grimm, RHP
Brett Jackson, OF
Junior Lake, OF
Trey McNutt, RHP
Thomas Neal, OF
Mike Olt, 3B
Blake Parkjer, RHP
Zach Putnam, RHP
Brooks Raley, LHP
Hector Rondon, RHP
Chris Rusin, LHP
Eduardo Sanchez, RHP
Dave Sappelt, OF
Matt Szczur, OF
Christian Villanueva, 3B
Josh Vitters, IF-OF
Arodys Vizcaino, RHP
Logan Watkins, INF
These are also the players who have a minor league "split salary" in their contract, where the player is paid one salary if he is on the 25-man roster or on an MLB Disabled List (minimum goes up to $500K per year beginning in 2014, pro-rated to the number of days the player spends on an MLB 25-man roster or MLB 15-day, 60-day, or 7-day Disabled List), and a significantly lesser salary if he is on Optional Assignment to the minors (about $40,000 per year pro-rated for players on the 40-man roster for the first time, and about $80,000 per year pro-rated for the others).
Of the 26 listed here, I would say six (Bogusevic, Boscan, Gillespie, Neal, Putnam, and Sappelt) are virtual locks to get outrighted to the minors after the season. (Sappelt cannot be a minor league FA post-2013 if he is outrighted, but the others can be either per MLB Rule 55 or Article XX-D of the CBA). Combined with the five MLB Article XX-B free-agents (Baker, Gregg, Guerrier, Navarro, and Sweeney) and the three arbitration-eligibles likely to be non-tendered (McDonald, Murphy, and Ransom), the Cubs should have 33 slots on their 40-man roster commited post-2013.
That leaves seven slots available for any post-2013 minor league free-agent the Cubs might not want to lose, as well for minor league players eligible for selection in the December 2013 Rule 5 Draft who the Cubs might want to protect:
ARTICLE XX-D CUBS MINOR LEAGUE FREE-AGENTS POST-2013:
Henry Rodriguez, RHP
NOTE: An Article XX-D player can elect free-agency beginning on the day after the conclusion of the MLB regular season up through October 15th, unless the player is added to an MLB 40-man roster prior to electing free-agency
MLB RULE 55 CUBS MINOR LEAGUE FREE-AGENTS POST-2013:
NOTE: MLB Rule 55 minor league players are automatically declared free-agents at 5 PM (Eastern) on the 5th day following the conclusion of the World Series, unless the player is added to an MLB 40-man roster prior to that time.
SIX-YEAR MINOR LEAGUE FREE-AGENT:
Jeffry Antigua, LHP
Kyler Burke, LHP
Alex Burnett, RHP
Yeiper Castillo, RHP
Jaye Chapman, RHP
Johermyn Chavez, RHP (ex-OF)
Dayan Diaz, RHP
Eduardo Figueroa, RHP
Edgar Gonzalez, INF
Marcus Hatley, RHP
Marcos Mateo, RHP
Edwin Maysonet, INF
Jonathon Mota, INF
Brad Nelson, 1B
Nate Samson, IF-OF
Tim Torres, IF-OF
Casey Weathers, RHP
Ty Wright, OF
SECOND-CONTRACT MINOR LEAGUE FREE-AGENT
Michael de la Cruz, RHP (was previously released by TEX)
Carlos Figueroa, INF (player-coach - was previously released by CHC)
Humberto Garcia, INF (was previously released by CHW)
Nate Maldonado, C (player-coach - was previously released by CHC)
Yomar Pacheco, RHP (was previously released by PIT)
Brohiglyn Rivero, RHP (was previously released by TB)
Orbandy Rodriguez, RHP (AKA "Manuel Gil" - was previously released by AZ)
Roberto Vahlis, C (was previously released by TOR)
Of these 27 players (one Article XX-D, 18 6YFA, and eight second-contracts), LHP Kyler Burke is the one most-likely to get added to the Cubs MLB 40-man roster post-2013. Burke might get assigned to the AFL (Mesa Solar Sox) as an audition for inclusion, but I doubt very much that any of the others listed above will be added to the 40. That doesn't mean that some of them won't return to the Cubs organization in 2014 (usually about half of a club's minor league free-agents sign minor league successor contracts), but it becomes a "mutual option" if the player is not added to the club's MLB 40-man roster by the deadline. Also, any minor league free-agent who signs a minor league successor contract prior to the Rule 5 Draft is eligible for selection. BTW, that's how the Cubs ended up with Hector Rondon... he was a 6YFA post-2012, the Indians re-signed him to a successor contract for 2013, and then the Cubs selected him in the Rule 5 Draft. So that's the chance a club takes when it signs (or re-signs) a minor league FA prior to the Rule 5 Draft.
So if Burke is added to the 40 post-2013, that would leave six slots open.
Next we look at Cubs minor leaguers who are eligible for selection in the December 2013 Rule 5 Draft.
CUBS ELIGIBLE FOR MLB RULE 5 DRAFT POST-2013:
Arismendy Alcantara, INF
Gioskar Amaya, INF
Frank Batista, RHP
Dallas Beeler, RHP
Julio Borbon, OF
Justin Bour, 1B
Marcelo Carreno, RHP
Lendy Castillo, RHP
Javier Castro, RHP
Zach Cates, RHP
Hunter Cervenka, LHP
Pin-Chieh Chen, OF
Casey Coleman, RHP
Gerardo Concepcion, LHP
Willson Contreras, C
Wes Darvill, INF
Antonio Encarnacion, RHP
Luis Flores, C
Anthony Giansanti, OF
Enyel Gonzalez, RHP
Carlos Gutierrez, RHP
Jae-Hoon Ha, OF
Marco Hernandez, INF
Eric Jokisch, LHP
Austin Kirk, LHP
Matt Loosen, RHP
Jeff Lorick, LHP
Eric Martinez, RHP
A. J. Morris, RHP
Chad Noble, C
Loiger Padron, RHP
Juan Carlos Paniagua, RHP (see NOTE)
Amaury Paulino, RHP
Felix Pena, RHP
Starling Peralta, RHP
Dae-Eun Rhee, RHP
Greg Rohan, INF
Jose Rosario, RHP
Zac Rosscup, LHP
Victor Salazar, RHP
Brian Schlitter, RHP
Ryan Searle, RHP
Elliot Soto, INF,
Nick Struck, RHP
Luis Villalba, LHP
Yao-Lin Wang, RHP
Oliver Zapata, OF
NOTE: Juan Carlos Paniagua signed his first contract with the Arizona Diamondbacks as "Juan Callado" on 5-8-2009 and pitched for the DSL Diamondbacks in the Dominican Summer League in 2009-10, but the contract was "pending" for almost two years and was never officially approved by MLB. The contract was eventually rejected by MLB due to "fraudulent paperwork" and Paniagua (Callado) was suspended for one year and then was declared a free-agent. He signed with the New York Yankees in March 2011 but then was suspended again and that contract was rejected, too, because his birth certificate could not be verified. Paniagua was cleared by MLB in 2012 and he signed with the Cubs on 7-9-2012. Therefore, Paniagua could be eligible for selection in the Rule 5 Draft for the first time in December 2013, since 2009 was his "first season" on the field, and he was 18 on the June 5th immediately preceding the signing of his first contract, or he might not be eligible for selection in the Rule 5 Draft for the first time until December 2015 if 2012 is considered Paniagua's "first season" for Rule 5 eligibility purposes.
So at present there are 47 players eligible for selection (48 if MLB declares Paniagua eligible), and of that group, three or four will likely be added to the Cubs 40-man roster by the November 20th deadline:
Arismendy Alcantara (virtual lock)
Jae-Hoon Ha (likely)
Zac Rosscup, (likely)
Juan Carlos Paniagua (but only if he is declared eligible for selection by MLB - TBD)
It's possible that the Cubs could decide to add another starting pitcher to the 40 (like maybe Loosen, Jokisch, or Beeler), but that would probably happen only if the pitcher throws "lights out" in the AFL, or in Winter Ball prior to the 11/20 deadline.
So if the Cubs add three or four post-2013 Rule 5 eligibles to their 40-man roster, that would leave two or three slots open for a Rule 5 draft pick and/or an MLB free-agent or two.
Keep in mind that Rule 5 eligible players (which technically also includes minor league free-agents like Burke) who are added to an MLB 40-man roster after August 15th have "Draft-Excluded Status" and cannot be outrighted back to the minors during most of the off-season, so if additional roster slots are needed for a Rule 5 pick or free-agents signing major league contracts December-January-February, the Cubs would have to either release a Draft-Excluded Player or release or outright a pre-arbitration/auto-renewal guy (like Rafael Dolis, Eduardo Sanchez, Michael Bowden, and/ or Hector Rondon).
Recent comments
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Dolorous Jon Lester 4 hours 13 min ago (view)
Lame. He was intriguing
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crunch 6 hours 22 min ago (view)
cubs release matt dermody...he's heading to japan.
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Cubster 12 hours 47 min ago (view)
The Jared Porter story gets worse and does involve the Cubs...
"The Jared Porter situation is equally a Cubs and a Mets problem. The Mets need a new GM. The Cubs need to reevaluate themselves as an organization.
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Cubster 15 hours 36 min ago (view)
and they are including amusement tax, healthcare costs (Doc Adams doesn't come cheap!), social security and political donations to the City and the Governor of Nebraska.
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bradsbeard 16 hours 1 min ago (view)
It all depends what you count as "payroll." If you include the $11M in Lester and Descalso's buyouts plus the $3M sent in the Darvish trade you get to somewhere like $145M. If you include the $15M in estimated share of player benefits, you get to $160M. I think that last year, including player benefits, they were slated to be up around $205M for MLB payroll before the pandemic.
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crunch 1 day 1 hour ago (view)
not sure, but i think it's around 130-135m right now even with bryant/baez/contreras still on board...including the 3m to set darvish free and other random $$ expenses on the roster.
tack on another 3-4m for happ when that gets settled....plus other odds/ends that have a chance to make the roster (s.miller, a.morgan, j.holder, etc) and other pre-arbitration guys...
cubs still need someone to back up contreras (if he sticks around, which i wouldn't be surprised to see him stick around)...not sure if taylor gushue is gonna be that guy and m.amaya is too young.
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George Altman 1 day 2 hours ago (view)
Seriously, what's the 2021 payroll number? Currently at approximately $165M and after they trade Bryant, Baez, & Contreras - $130M. Is that it, $135-140M.
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crunch 1 day 2 hours ago (view)
Q to the angels...supposedly 1/8m
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crunch 1 day 11 hours ago (view)
pete ricketts (the governor of Nebraska ricketts) is a key part of an anti-gambling Nebraska group called "Gambling With The Good Life" that actively lobbied their open legislature...including a speech by pete...to keep gambling illegal in Nebraska.
he last spoke for the group to the state government in-session 3 months ago.
...it's also worth mentioning all of this is separate from the Draft Kings/Wrigley Field deal that flew under the radar toward the end of the season that will put a sportsbook directly in wrigley field, itself.
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Charlie 1 day 12 hours ago (view)
Of all the things, why does this most make me want to punch
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Cubster 1 day 17 hours ago (view)
I thought the Cubs had lost a rising star in Porter, seems the just got lucky with him leaving the organization.
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crunch 2 days 1 hour ago (view)
jared porter...damn dude...mets gm, ex cubs director of scouting...
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crunch 2 days 5 hours ago (view)
cubs freeing up that chatwood + lester loot sure did help...wait...sigh.
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Cubster 2 days 5 hours ago (view)
Plus Chatwood signing w Bluejays is done.
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crunch 2 days 6 hours ago (view)
...and done. 1 year deal with a mutual option.
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Cubster 2 days 7 hours ago (view)
Dolorous in discussions with the Washington Schwarbs.
Comments
Phil's knowledge is amazing!
PHIL: I like all of the ???
270 miles from DC...
How about on iPad?
i have the cable MLB EI
I love being able to watch
Oh yeah, it's great so long
New cleanup hitter gets a 3
new #2 hitter is old/failed
Phil - we traded DeJesus for
http://www.thecubreporter.com
http://www.thecubreporter.com/restrictions-tr...
6. If a "Player to Be Named Later" (PTBNL) is part of a trade, the PTBNL cannot be on an MLB 25-man roster (MLB Active List) at any time starting when the trade is executed up until the PTBNL is announced. Clubs have six months to agree on a PTBNL. A cash payment (typically $50,000 for trades involving players on the 40-man roster) can be substituted for a PTBNL if no agreement can be reached within six months.
up in the navigation bar under AZ Phil's Corner->MLB Roster Rules: you can find most of that sort of stuff...it's quite thorough.
j.lake...quit bunting. k,
sureholds 2HR night...18 on
murph with 2HR, too...cuz why
Four batters in your lineup
olt 1-3 (single), 1bb 1k
Az Phil
Pretty sure TheJedi have a
Pretty sure TheJedi have a policy of no deals over 4/5 years and I'm sure Boras will be looking for much more.
Also, 2011 Ellsbury isn't walking through that door, 30-year old Ellsbury isn't going to be anywhere near worth a 6/100 deal or whatever he foolishly ends up getting from the Arte Moreno :)
Actually not sure who the big spenders are going to be for an outfielder, Red Sox want him back I'm sure but at a far more reasonable number. Be surprised if Dodgers, Angels or Tigers would have much interest. Maybe Giants...maybe Yanks if they part ways with Granderson.
My feeling is the Cubs aren't interested in blocking any youngsters at this point with vets on long contracts, but you never know.
Here's a list of potential FA's btw
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/02/2014-ml...
this is shaping up to be one
It's also *possible* Scott
I like Choo a lot, especially
you learned nothing from
you learned nothing from Howry, Eyre, Hawkins? It so rarely works to spend money on set-up men...
You're talking about buying
"this is shaping up to be one
How much does a hitman cost
A hit person (let's be
Shit. I'm in the wrong line
What's sad is that I actually
ROKFISH: I don't think the
ROKFISH: I don't think the Cubs will go after Ellsbury or any high-profile FA position-player post-2013.
Javier Baez, Jorge Soler, Mike Olt, Arismemdy Alcantara, Christian Villanueva, and possibly Kris Bryant will likely be arriving in Chicago sometime next season, and I just don't think the Cubs are going to make any multi-year commitments to high-profile position-player free-agents until they can sort out the prospects and how the pieces fit together, andf it might take a year or two to do that.
I would say post-2015 is when the Cubs might start to look at signing a FA position-player.
That said, I would expect the Cubs to continue to pursue under-30 FA starting pitchers after this season and after next season, as they did with Anibal Sanchez and Edwin Jackson last off-season.
I've mentioned this before, but the one position player I think the Cubs could comfortably re-sign for two or three years is Dioner Navarro. Other than MAYBE Rafael Lopez, there just isn't any catching prospect in the system who projects to play in the big leagues over the next three seasons, and so I think a Castillo-Navarro combo behind the plate would be a good thing to keep together for two or three more years. BTW, Navarro is only 29 years old.
One other thing...
If the Cubs do not sign any free-agents during the off-season, as things stand right now the Cubs 2014 MLB payroll (including players with "split contracts" on optional assigmment to the minors, the second installment of Rizzo's signing bonus, and the $13M Soriano "legacy" payment) will be AT MOST $75M.
"Javier Baez, Jorge Soler,
Another season of Darwin
I'm a big Alcantara fan, and
How much will Barney make
BOB R: Darwin Barney is
BOB R: Darwin Barney is arbitration eligible for the first time post-2013 so his 2014 salary is TBD, but I would predict it to be $2.5M.
The thing about Barney is that if he remains with the Cubs, he will probably very soon morph into a utility infielder. And he would be making too much money for that job, and it would be very difficult to cut him without non-tendering him post-2014, and once he's non-tendered, he could just sign with another club where he might have a chance to get more playing time and/or more money.
So I would expect Barney to be moved at the trade deadline next July, or else non-tendered post-2014.
d.barney is barely worth $1
I would agree. I'm sure there
the fact he Ks 1/4 his ABs in
I dunno... Murphy K's in 1/4
yeah, but he's on pace for 85
I think AZ Phil is mostly
unless olt has a crap spring
"d.barney providing the
WISCGRAD: I disagree.
WISCGRAD: I disagree.
I fully expect the Cubs will give Mike Olt a Big Chance to win the starting 3B job in Spring Training, and at the very least he will likely platoon with Luis Valbuena. Olt needs to show something right away, though (he'll probably have about a year to do it), hecause Villanueva and Bryant are coming up fast from behind, and so if Olt struggles (as he has this year), he will just get pushed aside. In fact even if he doesn't struggle, his time as a Cub might be limited.
Christian Villanueva (who BTW is hitting 294/351/521 with four HR and 15 doubles in his last 32 games at AA) and Jorge Soler are already on the 40-man roster and Arismendy Alcantara will be by 11/20. Villanueva and Alcantara will both very likely be at AAA next season (Villanueva at 3B and Alcantara at 2B), and Soler will be getting a full season at AA, so (barring injury) I would expect all three to get a call-up in September 2014. It's possible (but not likely) that any of the three will get a call-up before September. Alcantara could if the Cubs trade Barney at the trade deadline, or Villanuieva could if Olt flames out, or Soler could just because there should be openings in the outfield throughout next seasoin. And of course an injury could give any of them a shot. Just like Junior Lake this year.
Soler will get a 4th minor league option in 2015, but then he will be out of options in 2016, so the Cubs can't take too much time with him. He's also making $2M in 2014 & 2015.
Javier Baez is a different case because he does not need to be protected/rostered until post-2015, but I think it's likely that he will begin the 2014 season at AAA, and so he could just simply play himself into the big leagues by September (if not earlier) if he hits at AAA as he has at AA.
Kris Bryant is less likely to see Chicago in 2014 because while I think he will start the season at AA, he is not on the 40-man roster and there are other options at 3B (Olt and Villanueva) that the Cubs might want to check out before Bryant arrives. Also, the Cubs might end up moving Bryant to LF, and if that were to happen they might want him to get some reps there in the minors and/or in the AFL or winter ball first.
It would be interesting if
Yeah, you and I normally
what olt is doing right now
I am guilty of over valuing
"The strike out pattern has
He was basically fine, both
It's a truism in golf that
These are excellent questions
They are still young and we
I think the sad truth is that
Or the shiny prospects too!
WISCGRAD: Fortunately
WISCGRAD: Fortunately Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, Keith Law, Professor Parks, mlb.com, et al, are accurate in their prospect prognostications and rankings.
But seriously, all I was saying in the particular post to which you responded is that certain Cubs top prospects (Alcantara, Villanueva, Soler, Baez, and maybe Bryant) will likely get called ip next season, some probably not until September. and that (for better or worse) the third-base job would probably be Mike Olt's to lose in Spring Trtaining, although he could end up in a platoon with Luis Valbuena. I don't think I said that any of the Cubs top prospects would get called up and then go directly into the Hall of Fame, and as a matter of fact I have no idea whether any of them will be successful at the MLB level. I have never claimed that ability, probably because nobody can know that.
No one is very accurate in
I don't read AZ Phil's
WISCGRAD: You say "don't
WISCGRAD: You say "don't pretend that you never make statements about the potential major league success of prospects. You do that all of the time." And then you say "And with that, I'll let this go."
You can't get away with making a comment like that and then say "with that I'll let this go."
When have I ever "pretended" that I don't make statements about the potential major league success of prospects? Show me an example.
If what you were trying to say is that sometimes I give my opinion about a particular prospect and you find these observations, evaluations, opinions, predictions, and/or prognostications to be frequently inaccurate and so therefore you're skeptical when I offer my opinon about a player, and that other times I merely list possible scenarios of what could happen regarding a particular prospect without mentioning what I think the player will do in the future (as I did in the comment above), and that (for some inexplicable reason) it's difficult for you to comprehend the difference, you would be correct, but that's not what you said.
But I don't "pretend" that I never make statements about the potential major league success of prospects.
As for my being too optimistic about Cub prospects, Oneri Fleita once asked me if I was really a Cubs fan, because my observations and evaluations of Cubs prospects was (in his opinion) consistently too negative.
I am very stupid and cannot
My delicate fan psyche has
Just as an aside, there are a
Just as an aside, there are a number of reasons why a highly-regarded prospect might not reach his potential, which is why making prognostications and predictions is very difficult:
1. A career limiting injury or injuries;
2. Bad coaching:
3. Unable to make necessary adjustments as the player moves to a higher level;
4. Distractions (bad marriage, breaking up with girlfriend, illness or death in family)
5. Personal demons (alcohol, drugs, anger management issues)
Now observations and evaluations are another matter, and I think I do that fairly well. I am certainly not a scout (and I don't pretend to be one), but I have been playing baseball for 50+ years, I watch a LOT of Cubs minor league baseball, I talk to coaches and scouts from other organizations, and I stayed in a Holiday Inn Express last night.
AZ Phil, you've been playing
Never ask an ex-cabbie his
"3. Unable to make necessary
they asked him to revamp his
they asked him to revamp his whole swing btw, it had a Hee Seop Choi size hole in it
For now on can we just call
The timeline is important
whatever he was doing in Aug
Jackson has a strikeout rate
Jackson has a strikeout rate of 25% or higher in every minor league season, the hole(s) in his swing have always been there. Starting off well in a new league and then having the league adjust and start performing significantly worse is the opposite of what you want to happen (the opposite of Baez for example).
Dale Sveum thinks Junior Lake is the only major leaguer that has come up through the Cubs farm system over the last 2 years. So maybe ingest everything he says with a healthy dose of salt.
fwiw, the stupid Cubs coaches worked on A. Rizzo's swing as well...he's not supplanting Joey Votto just yet, it seems to have gotten him in the majors to stay.
Jackson started his new swing in the offseason in 2012 with his Dad btw...not sure if that's available in a media report or not, but I assure you that is the case. He still strikes out a ton and now isn't hitting. Might as well go back to the old swing at this point, but he'll still be a disaster in the majors with that K rate.
anway, here's Keith Law's take on his swing fix...in which he felt it wasn't going to help much.
http://www.bleachernation.com/2013/03/05/keit...
VA PHIL: Brett Jackson
VA PHIL: Brett Jackson appeared to have mastered AAA when he was recalled at the trade deadline last year, so even if he struggled at the MLB level (which he did), he should have been able to go back to AAA in 2013 and play well. He certainly shouldn't be struggling to hit in AA.
If the Cubs were trying to get him to be more aggressive and that's not his game and that's not what got him to AAA, then that's bad coaching, because you are asking a player to be something he can't be and still be successful. And then you take the chance that the player can't get back at least to where he was before you tried to change him.
Sometimes it's better just to acceot a player the way he is and live with the warts, especially once the player makes it to AAA and has success there. (Evan moreso with somebody like Starlin Castro, who had already proven himself at the MLB level).
The thing is, if Brett Jackson had continued to develop along the line he had been traveling pre 2013 (high-K, high-BB, XBH+, SB+, plus-OF defense), he could have fit as the Cubs eventual lead-off hitter and left-fielder (or at least a platoon guy in that slot), something the Cubs will actually probably need.
yeah, must have been the Cubs
yeah, must have been the Cubs coaching that ruined Jackson and not Jackson's unacceptable and absurd minor league strikeout rate.
you can't be a a major leaguer if you strike out like Jackson unless you hit home runs like Adam Dunn.
ROB G: So they took a guy who
ROB G: So they took a guy who was successful at AAA and turned him into somebody who can't even hit at AA? How is that good coaching?
IN 215 AAA games (about exactly 1-1/2 AAA seasons) 2011-12, Jackson had 31 HR, 42 doubles, 17 triples, 96 walks, and 40 SB. He did sttrike outr 1/3 of the time, too, but he's a high-K guy.
Jackson was already
Jackson was already struggling in AAA in 2012 and somewhat in AA in 2011. Don't be so quick to blame the coaching and not the obvious deficiency in the players skills.
How is that good coaching?
because anyone paying attention knows that strikeout rates above 30% in the minors don't last long in the majors unless you have plus-plus power, which Jackson doesn't. If he didn't change he wasn't going to have much of a career. Plus Jackson has to be a wiling participant in said swing change. He's probably adjusting to his swing and that's affecting him mentally for sure. Problem is that is hasn't helped his strikeout rate at all.
There was a reason McLeod said they passed on Jackson in Boston (or maybe it was San Diego) in the draft because of the swing and miss in his game.
Also, Jackson wasn't really tearing up AAA in 2012 with the old swing, actually he hasn't torn up the minors all that much anway once he started reaching the higher levels, his career minor league OPS is .826...that's barely gonna be an .800 OPS in the majors if all things stay the same and with that strikeout rate, it wasn't going to stay the same. Major league pitchers aren't gonna miss on 3-2 counts nearly as much as minor leaguers. All the flaws were there, he masked them well by willingly taking a walk and putting a few over the fence, but that stuff gets exposed the higher you go. He's pretty much the Hee Seop Choi of this decade. Good numbers...obvious flaws.
"There was a reason McLeod
for all you know, somebody on
for all you know, somebody on the Cardinals said something about something Brett Wallace needed to improve, I'm guessing you don't follow them nearly as closely. Also, Wallace's K rates in the minors were nothing compared to Jackson's.
I'll never find the article now, but if I recall, someone asked McLeod about Jackson's strikeouts and he after saying the standard P.R. speak, there was some throwaway line about when he was coming out of the draft, they were concerned about that aspect of his game. Anyone can look at a stat sheet and see the same thing, so it's doubtful it did much in de-valuing Jackson.
He was the Cubs' #1 prospect going into 2012. If they didn't like him, well, he had real value to someone else (especially compared to today).
Why the leap from saying a player has to improve upon an aspect of his game to the Cubs didn't like him and wanted to trade him. Baez needs(needed) to work on his pitch recognition and working counts, does that mean they're ready to move him?
Nothing wrong with being candid about what a player needs to work on, I'm sure McLeod wants and hopes that Jackson figures it out. It only helps the club. Other organizations have plenty of scouts that can all see the same things we see and read about. You're not gonna fool to many with press quotes.
speaking of Jackson, recent
speaking of Jackson, recent interview with him
http://www.csnchicago.com/cubs/cubs-brett-jac...
seems to be handling the struggles well...
Nice kid. Can't be stupid if
Is there really no room in
you new to this? don't be so
you new to this? don't be so reasonable :)
I would have to say that
As I read it, Phil said that
Olt will probably be playing
Well, that is certainly valid
Olt will likely not hit for
Also, the other options are
Is "Scott Rolen Lite" fair
If he doesn't get the eye
Depends on your definition of
personally...i'm looking at a
Before this year probably
he might just be another
Hhaha! Yes . . . That looks
AzPhil- Any opinion on John
DUSTY B: I have mentioned
DUSTY B: I have mentioned this before, but I see Joihn Andreoli as a RH version of Jim Adduci, but without Adduci's plus-arm.
If Andreoli makes it to the big leagues, it would probably be as a "5th outfielder" (not a 4th oF), the type of player you use as a PR late in a game, or as a PH leading off an inning, or as a defensive replacement in LF if your left-fielder is defensevily challenged.
That said, I think Andreoli might have a chance to get more of a shot and maybe even regular playing time in another organization, one that doesn't have the minor league prospects the Cubs have.
Jae-Hoon Ha, Matt Szczur, and Zeke DeVoss are three others who probably project as a "5th OF" at the big league level with the Cubs (although they might project to get more regular playing time in another organization). Again, we're not talking about a "4th OF" (a guy who can play all three OF positions and functions almost like a 6th man in basketrball or a 3rd down player in football, probably what Junior Lake will be eventually). although Ha does have the defensive skills to play all three OF positions equally well (Andreoli is more of a LF only, and Szczur and DeVoss are limited to CF-LF).
BTW, Tony Campana and Julio Borbon would be two recent examples of a "5th OF."
Well that sucks. LMAO....
DUSTY B: One thing guys like
DUSTY B: One thing guys like Andrreoli, Szczur, and DeVoss have going for them is that none of the Cubs elite prospects project as lead-off hitters.
Albert Almora is an outstanding pure hitter (and he will win Gold Gloves in CF) but his OBP is mostly hit-driven, and Arismendy Alcantara could hit lead-off except he will probably be the #1 utility infielder if Bryant-Baez-Castro play 3B-SS-2B (which is what I suspect will happen).
So there could possibly be an eventual opening for an Andreoli, Szczur, or DeVoss in LF, if one of them can hit lead-off and put up an off-the-chart OBP.
Almora is awfully young,
Which one of these call ups
BOB R: Mike Olt will be given
BOB R: I think Mike Olt will be given every opportiunity to win the starting 3B job in Spring Training, and at the very least will probably platoon at 3B with Luis Valbuena.
I would expect Javier Baez (SS), Arismendy Alcantara (2B), and Christian Villanueva (3B) to be together at AAA, and any one of them could get called up at any time next season IF they can get regular playing time. They won't be called up to be back-up guys.
Jorge Soler and Kris Bryant should begin the 2014 season together at AA, and while Soler could come up at any time (he's already on the 40-man roster and he's making $2M next season), I think Bryant would only be called up if Olt falls flat (as he has this season) and Villanueva doesn't take the 3B job. Otherwise, I wouldn't expect to see Bryant until sometime in 2015.
Albert Almora should begin the 2014 season at Daytona, and he probably won't surface in the big leagues until sometime in 2016.
BTW, I think the Cubs are still hoping that Brett Jackson can get back to where he was in 2011 when he was the #1 prospect in the organization, because if he can, B-Jax would project as the Cubs LF and lead-off hitter. As is, if the Cubs top position-player prospects all develop into major leaguers, the lineup will be VERY right-handed:
1. TBD, LF (Jackson, DeVoss, Szczur, Alcantara, Lake, or ?)
2. Almora, CF
3, Baez, SS
4. Bryant, 3B
5. Rizzo, 1B
6. Soler, RF
7. Castro, 2B
8. Castillo,C
Castillo may end up being the
as I somewhat guessed, seems
as I somewhat guessed, seems Nats got stuck with DeJesus, possibly putting in a claim to block Braves and Cubs decided they just wanted to be rid of the contract. Looks like he's back on waivers again...
http://www.washingtontimes.com/blog/nationals...
Either way it seems like a
Of course, Wrongway tweeted
Someone explain this to me
WAS claims...cubs don't
I could be off, but usually
I could be off, but usually embarrassing when a GM makes a claim and just gets stuck with a player they didn't want...the PTBNL COULD have just been a bone thrown to make it seem like it was what the Nats wanted and maintain an image of value for DeJesus. TheJedi, much like Hendry, are certainly not opposed to keeping good will amongst their GM circles and they already made 2 previous deals with him. If the Nats can trade DeJesus again in the next 2 weeks and save the $50K they'll likely pay the Cubs and some of the $2.5M they'll being paying him, then the PTBNL will be a wash.
I agree that just putting him back on waivers isn't necessarily the smoking gun, but if you read the article, Davey Johnson pretty much had no idea what he was going to do with DeJesus. Also find it odd that they'd be willing to take on that much cash for a 4th/5th outfielder at this point of the season.
I freely admit that it could be all a conspiracy theory on my part as well.
Not as embarrassing as it is
dumpster gets a 5 game
That's really going to hurt
Dempster suspended... A-Rod
a lot of people hate it
I'm the Dad of two college
Good stuff. I think pitchers
I have a LHP and a RHP and
dumpster put a rather "me/us
On the other hand, I think
That is pretty cool - TWO? Do
E-MAN: Unfortunately not
more puig issues...showed up
Good old fashioned prima
speaking of the fun in
speaking of the fun in guessing which prospects will be playing where...has anyone seen a 20-80 grade on arms for Bryant vs. Soler?
genuinely curious which one will actually has the leg up on right field vs. left field of the two.
Didn't someone say Soler
Rob, FWIW.....MLB.com in the
Casro moving to second base
Castro moving to second base isn't going to happen anytime soon unless Baez gives them a real good reason with his glove and despite some great range, he seems to have all the same issues with routine plays as Castro. The incumbent rarely moves unless the prospect is that much better (talking defense only here) and Baez's glovework doesn't appear all that much better at this point.
On the other hand his bat is proving tough to keep down in the minors...he won't start with the team in 2014, but wouldn't be suprised in the least if he ends up there in May (Cubs won't care much about Super Two, he'll get his extension before it comes to that).
Soler's a bit behind, although I'm sure he can catch up quickly, but i have doubts he'll be near the major league roster next year. Bryant and Baez could make a push though. If Olt can't get it together, then you obviously keep Bryant at third base and try Baez at 2b or the outfield, he's young enough, athletic enough that they should be able to move him.
If by magic, Olt, Baez, Castro, Bryant and Soler are all starters in 2015 or 2016 (2016 seems about the earliest we'd see Almora I'm guessing, more likely 2017), then Olt at 3b, Baez at 2b, Castro at SS, Bryant in LF and Soler in RF would be my guess.
As for moving guys around, if Olt doesn't pan out, the only one to really worry about is Baez or Castro or trade one of them.
"I think the biggest thing we
"I think the biggest thing we have to figure out is offensively," he said. "We do some things pretty well. Our slugging percentage has been pretty good this year. But we've got to get to the bottom of the runners-in-scoring-position issue.
"We haven't been the worst batting-average team in baseball in the National League for two years, but we've been the worst in scoring position. The fact that those two things don't line up is a frustration.
"We have to get on base more, period.
"There's a team offensive element that I don't think we're all that good at. I think we're last in the league in sacrifice bunts, last in sacrifice flies. We have to get better at all those elements.
"We're going to take a pretty hard look at our offense this off-season, for sure, and going forward. We have a lot of young offensive talent coming, but we can't just rely on the young guys. We have to figure out how we can be a more efficient offensive team."
http://www.dailyherald.com/article/20130819/s...
nice ellsbury/choo pre
I'm kinda glad the Cubs didn
Kinda?
Damn. Rizzo just does not
His swing is fine. His
daytona with a rare rain
^^Facetious font.
http://i.imgur.com/Jm9Ec0j
d.murphy HR...7 HR in 48ab.
pee into the cup
If only the Cubs had given
the failure of taking
the failure of taking shortcuts....
The Angels...beyond some of those ridiculous contracts, they traded P. Corbin and T. Skaggs to D'Backs for Haren, traded J. Segura for Z. Greinke, traded Napoli away for V. Wells, traded T. Chatwood for C. Iannetta, traded E. Santana for B. Sisk, traded J. Walden for T. Hanson.
That's a lot of facepalms. There are a few trades that weren't terrible (Morales for Vargas, spare parts for S. Kazmir), but damn.
Sad ROB G wife.
Indeed she is...Mike Trout in
Indeed she is...Mike Trout in the meantime.
You don't think the Angels
Is Albert Pujols dead in this
Is Albert Pujols dead in this scenario?
How drunk is Jerry DiPoto?
How many limbs has Mike Trout lost at this point?
Trout/Angels situation is interesting though. They screwed him over this year on auto-renewal, well they didn't screw him over but they gave him the bare minimum which they certainly could do. They can do it again this offseason again if they want.
But...
will Trout hold it against them, refuse to even discuss a long term deal and just take them to arbitration and cash in big time (albeit it with risk)? Can the Angels even afford a long term deal for Trout with all that other money on the books? I can't ever imagine them entertaining trading him, but imagine the windfall of prospects if they did.
ESPN Jon Greenberg/Hoyer on
If by loopy/slow swing you
This is a good season to
He's clearly been reading our
Teams expect Japan's premier
In the video you can see he's
Felix Pie called up Pirates,
Watched Pie bat twice tonight
interesting lineup...
Welcome to the
BP article, Minor League
bleachers packed to capacity
rizzo's 1st homer since Aug
2nd homer of the night in the
Ill be the dick to point out
same thing.
not arrieta's night...6-1,
Good jake, good jake, BAD
Oh, Jake...
2nd pitch in the 4th...just
daytona postponed (rain) for
Smokies on Radio
Smokies on Radio
villa just threw some 57mph
J.LAKE...QUIT BUNTING.
is there anyone around who
Soriano with a game winning
What are these flat low fast
TIE GAME! woos.
between JD's Cub Helmet
Javier Baez solo HR in the
Smokies on Radio
s.hariston 3r HR...top 7th..
J. Baez with a SF to left
news flash: h.rondon still
Baez: 33 HR, 100 RBI