Cubs @ Rays: Montgomery vs Archer (Game 150)

TarzanJoeWallis 04/18/2024 - 04:47 am (view)

Teheran minor league deal is done, per MLB.

TarzanJoeWallis 04/18/2024 - 04:41 am (view)

Based on Phil’s sound analysis it sounds like a no brainer for Almonte to be placed on waivers as today’s roster move. We shall see.

Arizona Phil 04/18/2024 - 04:21 am (view)

I suspect Counsell/Hottovy will use the piggy-back extensively, with Taillon and Hendricks pitching as the "pig" (and with a very short leash) and some combo of Wicks, Brown, and Wesneski (whichever two do not start) as the "backers."  

Keep in mind that Keegan Thompson has a minor league option available, and if Yency Almonte is not outrighted by 4/26 he cannot be sent to the minors without his consent after that date. Almonte is out of minor league options, so I am talking about him getting outrighted to the minors if he is not claimed off waivers, and if he is claimed off waivers, the Cubs save the pro-rated portion of his $1.9M salary, which helps lower the Cubs 2024 AAV.

Dolorous Jon Lester 04/18/2024 - 04:02 am (view)

Totally agree. The 26 man roster very rarely consists of the 13 best position players and 13 best pitchers.

Dolorous Jon Lester 04/18/2024 - 04:00 am (view)

Based on what Jed has done in the past, I’d say the plan is to

-give Hendricks another few starts
-give Taillon some runway ot get his season underway

-Mix and match in the bullpen and see what sticks

Jed usually doesn’t do a whole lot of waiver wire plays in-season, at least early in the season. He only reallly did that after he blew up the rosters in 21 and 22 because they needed bodies (guys like Schwindel, Fargas, etc).

I think he’s a little handcuffed by a full 40 man in that he can’t really maneuver much with giving anyone showing ability at AAA (R Thompson/ Sanders/ Edwards etc). Brewer has the most tenuous grip there, and we will see what kind of chance he gets. Other than his spot, there isn’t a ton of 40 man wiggle room.

I’m very curious to see what happens with Brown now that Taillon returns. Bullpen? Wicks to Iowa? 

Childersb3 04/18/2024 - 04:59 am (view)

Pro teams have to play their "big money" guys if they are healthy and not "locker room" issues.
The Cubs wanted to deal JHey off well before they bought him out. They just didn't want to pay him to play for someone else for that long. Jed did give him 20+mil to play for LAD last yr.
Jed might also let Kyle walk at some point this year. Similar scenario to JHey, except Jed thought Kyle was going to be good/solid in '24!!
You'd think Smyly is in the same book as well. Same with Neris (he's a 1yr vet RP, so he's not really in this convo too much).
That's ~35mil between those three and those three are going to get opportunities until at least late June) over younger guys even if their performance is "iffy".
But, Jed is going to play Taillon a lot. They have to try and justify that contract and hope a veteran works out.
So, Taillon, Imanaga, and Hendricks are locks for the rest of April and probably May.
Assad, Brown and Wicks handle the last spots until Steele is ready.
Now, you're question has real merit when Steele comes back. That will interesting if Brown is still good and Hendricks is still bad. But Taillon is entirely safe as long as he's healthy.

And the bullpen moves were "money" based as well. Smyly has actually been okay. But he hasn't been clearly better than Little. Little had one bad outing. But Smyly makes 9mil. If they needed another RHRP and one of Little and Smyly had to go, it was going to Little. But that doesn't mean Smyly is one of the best 13 arms for the team. 

Arizona Phil 04/18/2024 - 04:02 am (view)

Childersb3: I think there was an issue with Luke Little coming into a game with men on base. He seems to need a "clean" inning to be dominant. So he is a future closer and needs to be used in that role at AAA. Same goes for Michael Arias. He needs to come into a "clean" inning, and is a future closer and needs to be used in that role at AA. Porter Hodge is a more versatile pitcher, a better version of Keegan Thompson (multi-inning RP). But Little, Arias, and Hodge (probably in that order) are the Cubs top three RP prospects (all three are Cubs Top 15 prospects).

TarzanJoeWallis 04/18/2024 - 04:11 am (view)

So, let’s do a little war gaming. Taillon is back for tonight’s game. He pitched two rehab games, just a few innings each, and not especially sharp. Let’s face it, he hasn’t been lights out since the Cubs gave him the big contract. In other words, as flat out bad as Hendricks has been, the chances of Taillon being the savior don’t look exactly promising.

If Taillon is equally ineffective or perhaps even worse, what’s the next move? Winning teams can often find a way to work around a dud fifth starter - kinda. Two dud starters make things much more difficult.

I believe the biggest reason for the recent bullpen moves was dissatisfaction with the recent blowing of big leads and the recognition that the bullpen wasn’t all it was thought to be. In other words, they are exploring alternate options and configurations. If similar juggling becomes necessary (even more so than it already is), what kind of reasonable maneuvering do we think could be explored?

Childersb3 04/18/2024 - 04:08 am (view)

Cubdom needs to prepare themselves for Wicks to be sent to Iowa for Taillon to come up.
Ben Brown has 4 appearances. Wicks has 4 appearances.
Ben has 16.1 IP.  Wicks has 17 IP
Ben was a 1.1 WHIP.  Wicks has a 1.7 WHIP. Wicks does have significantly more SOs. 
Ben has been better, though.
I love Wicks. I think he's a fighter and his stuff has improved.
But, Jed isn't ditching Hendricks just yet. He should. But he won't.
Hendricks should go to the IL and Taillon-Imanaga-Assad-Wicks-Brown should be the rotation.
Wont' happen though.

Childersb3 04/18/2024 - 04:57 am (view)

AZ Phil,
Did you agree with the demotion of Luke Little? He'd been pretty good up until the AZ/wild pitch appearance. I know that can't jettison Smyly (just yet) so they didn't need another LHRP. Especially with Leiter effectively being a LHRP. I still thought he deserved to stay. It's not permanent. He'll be back. Lots of moves to come with Taillon, Steele and other guys coming and going.

Also, do you see Hodge being able to "control/command" his stuff to get a chance this year?
Is Arias better than Hodge?   Thanks