2015 Draft Pick Update

 

Team.PCTGB
1. D'Backs.395--
3. Rangers.4000.5
4. Rockies.4053.0
5. Twins.4264.5
6. Red Sox.4366.0
7. Astros.4427.0
8. Cubs.4427.0
9. Phillies.4589.0
10. White Sox.4589.5
11. Reds.46210.0
12. Marlins.47712.5
13. Padres.47712.5

Updated through 9/21/14 - 6 games left for Cubs.

It's been quite a run by the D'Backs and Rangers over the last week and now the D'Backs hold the top spot in next year's draft with a week of games left. As for the Cubs, they're currently tied for the 6th worst record, but Astros own the tiebreaker there, so pushes the Cubs back to 7th and pushed back another spot with the Astros owning the 2nd pick in the draft for failing to sign Brady Aiken. 

It seems the most reasonable options for Cubs in terms of a draft pick next year, is either falling to the 5th worst record (6th pick) and overcoming the World Champs, whom they trail by one game and own the tiebreaker over. Or staying where they are and picking at #8, although they have less teams between them if they go on a win streak and the Phillies, White Sox or Reds go on a losing streak.

They're pretty close to clinching a protected pick with a 5.5 game lead there over Miami and San Diego. Miami has the tiebreaker over the Cubs, while the Cubs have the tiebreaker over the Padres. The Cubs have 6 games left, Miami and San Diego have 7 each. A Cubs loss or Padres win would clinch no worse than a tie between those two clubs and the aforementioned tiebreaker going the Cubs way, the Cubs couldn't do better than them this season. The Cubs need to lose tonight and the Marlins win or some magic number combination of the two before the season runs out and a protected pick will be the Cubs.

Comments

May this be the last year for this kind of post.

no doubt. i don't want to read yet another off-season "cubs signed" article that also stresses that it may bring the team someone in trade next june/july.

FREE SUN CHIPS!

Cubs loss or Marlins win will lock in a protected pick for Cubs.

Red Sox, Astros, Cubs jockeying for the 6-8 picks, separated by a half game.

Cubs: 2 vs. St. Louis, 3 @ Brewers

Red Sox: 3 vs. Rays, 3 vs Yankees

Astros: 2 @ Rangers, 3 @ Mets

Rangers have been playing well lately which is unfortunate for them and Cubs draft pick.

fwiw, last year difference between 6th pick and 8th pick in slotted bonus value was a little less than $400K. Not sure the overall difference and some of that is determined by free agent signings and the goofy draft lottery, but guesstimating, it could be close to $750K difference overall.

at the moment, we have no team in baseball with a winning percentage below .400.

Hasn't happened since 2007

http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB...

Parakeet!

"Arrieta has a 2.31 FIP that would rank second in the National League to Clayton Kershaw’s 1.87 if he had enough innings to qualify for the leaders." does arrieta have 1 more year of club control or 2?

3 more years...free agent after 2017 season.

arb-eligible for first time this off-season though, so good timing on his part.

Draft Pick Updates don't quite bring the same traffic as Mike Olt posts.

I'm gonna bring back the Milton Bradley tag if I have to.

Any idea what the most posts ever was for an entry? And what the topic was?

no easy way to tell...# of comments is skewed by how long we get a new post up though.

Trade Deadline, Opening Day and any big acquisitions are usually the biggest traffic days.

Has to be the Nomar trade. Huge acquisition, unexpected, cubs winning, etc. the only drawback is I think it was announced late on a Friday.

Saturday afternoon 4:00 pm Was driving back from Wisconsin Dells

void in the archive before 2005

331 comments the day Barrett got traded, seemed to be up for only a day too

http://www.thecubreporter.com/2007/06/20/espn...

Blast from the past posters! Wes, Carlos, Johan, JP, Dave, Brick, Manny, Jordan, Robr, CA Phil (along with the surviving AZ and VA varieties), Jace, Vorare, Manny, Horatio, Andrew, Ron Galt, Real Neal, Chad, Garsky, Vegas Brian, Joe C, Dave in Pittsburgh, Jessica, 433 ... it felt like going to Old Timers' Day.

I didn't really see any good comments there.

That will only work if he has a good game and then is benched. >ducks<

welcome to your future Edwin

@BruceMiles2112

Jokisch, Wada, Hendricks to pitch at Milwaukee this weekend. EJax to pen. #Cubs

I respectfully and completely disagree with you, Rob. This is Edwin's future: http://www.myrtlebeachgolf.com/

heh

m.olt not playing again tonight because dusty hates kids...or hendry made him not play him...or something like that. i wonder who he'll be playing for next season.

A Miami win clinches a protected pick for Cubs, so that's good, otherwise Cubs a game and a half from 6th pick and a game and half from dropping to 9th pick (although they have tiebreak over Phillies).

AZ Phil, have you seen a complete roster of the Instructional League players? Thanks.

Hot Take! Jeter plays anywhere but NY, he's Craig Biggio.

eh, Jeter has the titles and playoff highlights, Biggio generally shit his pants in the playoffs. Overall, WAR numbers are close 73 to 65, but Jeter gets a lot more on offense which is gonna be more appreciated. And yeah, New York, duh. Andre Dawson isn't a Hall of Famer if he stayed in Montreal, ask Tim Raines.

Being a great player in a major media market tends to lead to some deification.

Thank you for validating my hot take!

Certainly without NY he would be remembered very differently. Smaller market and he wouldn't have the post-season heroics and would certainly have done far worse in award voting, etc. But short stop is a premium position and his cumulative stats are way up there. Jeter: 310/377/440, 3461 H, 543 2B, 260 HR, 1922 R, 1307 RBI, 358 SB, 71.8 WAR Biggio: 281/363/433, 3060 H, 668 2B, 291 HR, 1844 R, 1175 RBI, 414 SB, 65.1 WAR Alomar: 300/371/443, 2724 H, 504 2B, 210 HR, 1508 R, 1134 RBI, 474 SB, 66.8 WAR Molitor: 306/369/448, 3319 H, 605 2B, 234 HR, 1782 R, 1307 RBI, 504 SB, 75.4 WAR Yount: 285/342/430, 3142 H, 583 2B, 251 HR, 1632 R, 1406 RBI, 271 SB, 77.0 WAR Brett: 305/369/487, 3154 H, 665 2B, 317 HR, 1583 R, 1596 RBI, 201 SB, 88.4 WAR Ripken: 276/340/447, 3184 H, 603 2B, 431 HR, 1647 R, 1695 RBI, 36 SB, 95.5 WAR His career is better than Biggio's or Alomar's and short stop gives him a clear edge. Ripken and Brett were obviously better, but it's not like playing in Baltimore or Kansas City held them back. And Yount and Molitor (who is a good offensive comp to Jeter but played DH) went into Cooperstown on the first ballot and played in Milwaukee. So my sense is that his legacy would lie somewhere below Ripken but above Biggio, along the lines of Brett or Molitor or Yount, depending on how particular events and awards and post-season stuff played out in his career in this other hypothetical non-NYC market.

Barry Larkin for good measure:

295/371/444, 2340 H, 441 2B, 198 HR, 1329 R, 960 RBI, 379 SB, 70.2 WAR

Larkin obviously got a big boost from his defense.

and then there's poor old Alan Trammell

285/352/415, 2365 H, 412 2B, 185 HR, 1231 R, 1003 RBI, 236 SB, 70.4 WAR

again, big boost from his defense

"When I saw this guy swing [in December] I knew he was going to be a big-leaguer for them soon," Sheffield told ESPNChicago.com on Tuesday. "Right now when I watch his swing, he has something in his swing that can be fixed real easy. He collapses his back leg. And anytime you do that a pitcher is going to have a field day on you.

"When you collapse your back leg, anything over the belt line you have to upper cut. You can't stay on top of it."

http://espn.go.com/blog/chicago/cubs/post/_/i...

rest of the article is about not striking out while walking in snow uphill, both ways, or something like that, Sheffield lost me at some point.

It is a little hard to imagine scouts loving the Wild Thing swing as it is now. So Mr Sheffield makes sense. The bigger question is, Why Didn't Manny See This? Why, Manny, Why????

Well there goes the perfect game. Thanks Jake. Thanks for nothing.

Tough crowd.

It would have been good to see Baez come up in April, if only to see the first player with 400 strikeouts.

And if Lake had played every day, Baez would have finished second on the team in K's.

Logan Watkins intentionally walked Jake Arrieta tripled to right center, Luis Valbuena and Logan Watkins scored ...lulz

Don't mess with Jake. When will they learn?

after 7ip arrieta's WHIP drops below 1.00 neat. the way he's thrown all season he would be in the CY discussion if he didn't miss april. note: discussion...even if kershaw has it locked up...which he does.

1.) Arrieta is just filthy nasty. 2.) Soler is a beast. 3.) Baez is REALLY bad at hitting right now. Maybe the worst stretch I've ever seen.

Also Olt (wherever Renteria has him locked up) is now batting the same as Baez at .161. Oh the dark damp doghouse of captain happy. The cruel twisted chamber ... deep in the crusted shards of death a monster does push-ups just waiting to go to the cardinals or Brewers.

I know there's a more appropriate thread for this but didn't Olt get something like 1 at bat this series? Very curious indeed.

as the season winds down i keep hoping that MLB Network finally decides to show winter league games and some AFL action... they've dabbled in showing games from both in years past, but it's been very few games. some more off-season game content would be nice. also, i hope this off-season is one that matters for cubs fans. also, i want a pony.

I suspect that Arietta's emergence will make TheoCorp more interested in Lester than they might have otherwise been. You may see some kind of deal with the Mets that the NYC media seems so interested, too, if the Cubs are willing to give up one of their shortstops. It would have been helpful if Baez had not looked like a winged dreidel up there most of his at bats. I'm surprised there's no interest in Yasmany Tomas from the Cubs. I guess they feel like they got a great bargain in that fellow in right so why bother. You can't collect too many power bats though, especially if your philosophy is collecting young power bats. Either way I think it will be a very interesting off season for Cubs fans that will matter quite a bit. Even if they stood pat, and they won't, they'll have two significant bats they didn't at the beginning of the year in Bryant and Soler, and an ace pitcher in Arietta. They've already got a solid bullpen. Now they need to get lucky on a starter or two and maybe (gulp - I hate free agency when it comes to this) a Lester type.

I'm curious to see some projections, but I think without making any additions this is already a 75-80 win team in 2015. If 88 wins is a wild card, this team should have the financial assets to try to make that type of push. And that's prior to even thinking about trading anyone from the existing roster. Whether they use money, trades, or a combination of both, I expect this team to be good enough on paper to compete next year.

Recent comments

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  • Cubster 2 days 15 hours ago (view)

    Lefty Matz to Cardinals. 4/44. 

     

  • Arizona Phil 3 days 1 hour ago (view)

    With the CBA expiring on December 1st, MLB owners and the MLBPA have jointly agreed to move the contract tender date up from Thursday December 2nd to Tuesday November 30th (that's a week from today). 

    Then (presumably) the lock-out will start the next day (Wednesday). 

     

  • Arizona Phil 3 days 3 hours ago (view)

    Not that TJS is ever necessarily a good thing, but taking a year off from catching could give Miguel Amaya a chance to work on his hitting.

    His glove & arm were probably a year ahead of his bat coming into 2021, so once he gets going again hopefully he will be able to spend a significant part of his rehab working in the cages. 

    Also, although he won't be able to throw for a while, he should be able to work on his receiving during the summer, once he is cleared to resume non-throwing baseball activities.  

     

  • Arizona Phil 3 days 3 hours ago (view)

    CUBSTER: Unless you consider Erick Castillo and Tyler Payne as legit contenders to be the Cubs back-up catcher in 2022, the Cubs have no catcher who is projected to eventually play in MLB anywhere near MLB ready.

     

  • Cubster 3 days 4 hours ago (view)

    With Amaya's 2022 year as a catcher essentially an non-factor and Robinson Chirinos and Austin Romaine again free agents, It looks like any rumors of moving Willson Contreras will go quiet. At least Chirinos could hit (for a backup catcher). 

     

  • Arizona Phil 3 days 4 hours ago (view)

    The Cubs have released LHP Chris Allen, 1B Shendrik Apostel, INF Matt Burch, INF Widimer Joaquin, RHP Garrett Kelly, RHP Marco Prieto,  RHP Jorge Remon, RHP Dawel Rodriguez, and OF Vance Vizcaino, so the off-season Cubs Minor League Domestic Reserve List is now at 169 (21 slots are open).  

    Six of the nine players who were released (Allen, Apostel, Joaquin, Kelly, Remon, and Vizcaino) were Rule 5 Draft-eligible, and all six had been left off the Iowa Reserve List when rosters were filed last Friday. 

     

  • Cubster 3 days 4 hours ago (view)

    sorry, posted in other thread.

     

  • Arizona Phil 3 days 5 hours ago (view)

    Also, Justin Steele gets a 4th minor league option in 2022 (must be used in 2022). 

     

  • Arizona Phil 3 days 5 hours ago (view)

    W-RAT: Of all the TJS rehab types, a catcher TJS rehab is probably most similar to a pitcher's because of the laser pinpoint rifle throws a catcher needs to make to 2nd base.

    So I would expect Amaya will be able to DH by mid-season (hitting shouldn't be a problem by then), and then (hopefully) be able to throw normally in games (as a catcher) at post-season Instructs and then maybe in the AFL, with 2023 Spring Training being when he should be 100%. 

     

  • Arizona Phil 3 days 6 hours ago (view)

    TIM: Yes, except a position player only gets a maximum of 20 days on a minor league injury rehab assignment, so the 30 extra days allowed for a position player rehabbing from TJS would mean a maximum of 50 days, whereas it would be a maximum of 60 days for a pitcher (the original 30 days that pitchers get plus the additional 30 days in the form of three 10-day increments). And this also only applies to players on an MLB IL. 

     

  • Arizona Phil 3 days 6 hours ago (view)

    DSJ: Exactly. Even though he was just acquired in a trade, the Cubs still might opt to non-tender Ramirez on 12/2, that is, as long as he goes along with the plan. I doubt that the Cubs would non-tender him if he declines (in advance) to sign a 2022 minor league contract.  

     

  • crunch 3 days 8 hours ago (view)

    well...that's one hell of a forearm strain.

     

  • tim815 3 days 9 hours ago (view)

    Arizona Phil. Would Amaya, as a catcher, be eligible for the TJS exemption?

     

  • crunch 3 days 10 hours ago (view)

    w.franco (rays) extend 11y/185m

    not bad for a guy with 1/10th of a season service time.

     

  • Wrigley Rat 3 days 10 hours ago (view)

    Miguel Amaya to have Tommy John surgery. Will likely miss most of next season. (I speculate that he could maybe DH a bit in the second half and throw towards August.)

     

  • Dolorous Jon Lester 3 days 15 hours ago (view)

    When you add in the arb-eligibility, that's gotta make Ramirez a real contender for Hermosillo's "non-tender poster boy" title