Projected Post-2020 MLB "Super Two" Players

An unsigned player under club control who has accrued at least three but less than six years of MLB Service Time is automatically eligible for salary arbitration.

Also, any unsigned player with at least two years but less than three years of MLB Service Time who accrued at least 86 days of MLB Service Time during the previous season can qualify for salary arbitration as a so-called "Super Two" if the player is among the top 22% in MLB Service Time of players in that group (rounded to the nearest whole number). And if  two or more players are tied with the same MLB Service Time just above the "Super Two" threshold, all of the players with that accrued MLB ST would get "Super Two" status even if that means the number of players with "Super Two" status exceeds 22%.   

Because it is based on a percentage, the "Super Two" threshold fluctuates from year-to-year (it was two years plus 115 days or 2+115 MLB ST post-2019, 2+134 MLB ST post-2018, 2+123 post-2017, 2+131 post-2016, 2+130 post-2015, 2+133 post-2014, 2+122 post-2013, 2+140 post-2012, 2+145 post-2011, 2+122 in 2010, and 2+139 in 2009), but the threshold has generally gone down whenever a new CBA is signed, because the percentage of players who automatically qualify for "Super Two" status has increased with each new CBA.

Besides gaining the right to request salary arbitration and have that right four times instead of just three times, being a "Super Two" player also means the player can elect free-agency if outrighted even though he has not yet accrued three years of MLB Service Time and even if he has not been outrighted previously in his career (however, unlike a player who has accrued at least three years of MLB Service Time and/or has been outrighted previously in his career and who therefore has the option to elect free-agency immediately or else defer the choice until after the conclusion of the MLB regular season, a "Super Two ' player who has not been outrighted previously in his career must make his choice immediately upon being outrighted). 

At present there are 147 players on MLB rosters who are projected to fit the criteria of a player who has accrued at least two years but less than three years of MLB Service Time with at least 86 days of MLB Service Time accrued in the 2020 (86 dayus is actually 31 days pro-rated due to the CoViD-19 rules). So that means that 22% of the 147 (32.34 rounded to the nearest whole number, which is 32) will have "Super Two" status post-2020. However, sometimes a player petitions (successfully) to have his listed MLB Service Time adjusted (like due to an injury that occurred before the player was optioned to the minors, or because a player was optioned prior to game time or after the start of a game, both of which would impact the player's service time and thus could impact the number of players who are in the macro group and how many of the players in the group acquire "Super Two" status).


TOP 22% OF PLAYERS WITH BETWEEN TWO & THREE YEARS OF MLB SERVICE TIME POST-2020
Isiah Kiner-Falefa, INF-C (TEX) - 2 +169 
Walker Buehler, RHP (LAD) - 2+168 
Luke Voit, 1B (NYY) - 2+165 
Clint Frazier, OF (NYY) - 2+163 
J. P. Crawford, SS (SEA) - 2+163 
Renato Nunez, 1B (BAL) - 2+163 
Lou Trivino, RHP (OAK) - 2+163  
A. J. Minter, LHP (ATL) - 2+162
Anthony Santander, OF (BAL) - 2+162 
Gleyber Torres, SS (NYY) - 2+162 
Justin Anderson, RHP (LAA) - 2+161 
Carson Kelly, C (AZ) - 2+161 
Brandon Woodruff, RHP (MIL) - 2+161 
Ronald Acuna, OF (ATL) - 2+159 (signed multi-year contract in 2019)
Aaron Bummer, LHP (CHW) - 2+150 
Chi Chi Gonzalez, RHP (COL) - 2+149 
Jacob Stallings, C (PIT) - 2+149 
Max Fried, LHP (ATL) - 2+148 
Josh A. Smith, RHP (MIA) - 2+148 
Seranthony Dominguez, RHP (PHI) - 2+147
Austin Slater, OF (SF) - 2+147 
Ryan Yarbrough, LHP (TB) - 2+147 
Mike Siroka, RHP (ATL) - 2+146 
Dominic Smith, LF-1B (NYM) - 2+146 
Dustin Garneau, C (HOU) - 2+140 
Ryan Weber, RHP (BOS) - 2+138 
Yonny Chirinos, RHP (TB)_ - 2+137 
J. D. Davis, 3B-LF (NYM) - 2+137 
Juan Soto, OF (WAS) - 2+134 
Caleb Thielbar, LHP (MIN) - 2+132 
Kyle Farmer, INF (CIN) - 2+129 
Austin Pruitt, RHP (HOU) - 2+125 
+++++++++++++++++++++
PROJECTED SUPER TWO CUT-OFF - 2+125
++++++++++++++++++++++
Christian Walker, 1B (AZ) - 2+124
Yandy Diaz, 3B-1B (TB) - 2+122 
Adam Kolarek, LHP (LAD) - 2+122 
Jose Castillo, LHP (SD) - 2+121 

So if it remains unchanged, 2+125 MLB ST will be the 2020 "Super Two" threshold cut-off. 

Walker Buehler, Max Fried, Juan Soto, Gleyber Torres, and Brandon Woodruff won't have to worry, but for a number of the other players on the above list, "Super Two" ain't so super. In many cases, clubs will either release or non-tender the player rather than risk going to arbitration with him.

Becoming arbitration-eligible a year early also can make a player more likely to be shopped in a trade, especially by a club with payroll issues.   

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  • Hagsag 53 min 58 sec ago (view)

    Phil, we all are so glad you are getting to somehow "view" these games. Stay safe my friend.

     

  • Arizona Phil 1 day 6 hours ago (view)

    Someone to keep an eye on in 2021 is RHRP (ex-1B) Jerrick Suiter. 

    He was selected by the Cubs from the Pirates in the AAA Phase of the 2019 Rule 5 Draft and the Cubs  immediately converted him from a mediocre AA first-baseman to a full-time pitcher, having seen him throw garbage innings in blow-outs for the Pirates AA Altoona affiliate in 2019.

     

  • Dolorous Jon Lester 1 day 12 hours ago (view)

    Good to see Roederer and Velasquez  providing some production. From what I've followed they haven't been up to much. Granted this season isn't great for development

     

  • Arizona Phil 1 day 16 hours ago (view)

    The Cubs have added OF Brennen Davis to their AZIL Active List roster. 

     

  • crunch 1 day 17 hours ago (view)

    "He's a strong kid and shows a lot of HR power in BP and it's just a matter of making it game-usable."

    reggie golden flashblacks...if BP was a game he'd be an all-star.

     

  • Arizona Phil 1 day 18 hours ago (view)

    Unfortunately for the Cubs, all of their Top 10 position-player prospects (M. Amaya, Davis, Hearn, Howard, Made, C. Morel, R. Morel, Quintero, Roederer, and Strumpf -- listed alphabetically) are two or more years away from the big leagues, in most cases more like three or four or even five years away. 

     

  • Arizona Phil 1 day 18 hours ago (view)

    TIM: One of the things people wonder about when they see a young shortstop for the first time is does he have the arm and range necessary to play SS or would his tools maybe be better suited for 2B, 3B or OF. So far at Instructs Kevin Made has shown all of the attributes of a SS, and he is an advanced hitter (for his age) as well. 

     

  • Arizona Phil 1 day 19 hours ago (view)

    AZBOBBOP: Ethan Hearn showed off his plus-arm by back-picking a runner off 1st base last week. You don't see catchers with the confidence to attempt pick-offs much out here. 

    He's a strong kid and shows a lot of HR power in BP and it's just a matter of making it game-usable. His hitting (contact and barreling) has improved at instructs, and that's one of the things he needed to improve.

    His receiving should improve with experience as well. 

     

  • azbobbop 2 days 8 hours ago (view)

    Phil, saw Ethan Hearn with a couple of hits today. How has he been trending?

     

  • tim815 3 days 34 min ago (view)

    That Kevin Made is already representing offensively seems, on the 1 to 10 scale with 10 being fantastic news, in the 17 or 18 range.

    Nwogu in the 9 to 11 span.

     

  • Arizona Phil 3 days 17 hours ago (view)

    For those of you wondering about catcher Ronnier Quintero (the Cubs #1 IFA signing in the 2019-20 ISP), he participates fully in pre-game and Camp Day work-outs and he catches bullpens, and while he has been the bullpen catcher at every AZIL game he has not yet played in a game.

    As a catcher he has a lot to learn, and the Cubs would prefer that Quintero mainly concentrates on receiving and learning how to work with pitchers right now. He can learn about hitting and baserunning later. 

     

  • Arizona Phil 3 days 18 hours ago (view)

    In adition to the 22 pitchers originally on the Cubs AZIL Active List roster plus RHP Manuel Rodriguez (right biceps strain last March) and LHP Brad Wieck (wearing a brace on his left knee) who are on the Cubs MLB 60-day IL and are rehabbing at AZIL, the Cubs have added four additional pitchers to their AZIL Active List roster:  

    RHP Josh Burgmann 
    RHP Chris Clarke 
    LHP D. J. Herz
    RHP Michael McAvene 

     

  • Charlie 4 days 15 hours ago (view)

    This is weird. He seemed well liked and shifting him to another role would've made just as much sense.

     

  • bradsbeard 4 days 20 hours ago (view)

    I'd say the only guys who struggled all season were Baez and Bryant. Willson struggled for a lot of August but was one of the few who hit in September. Most of the team hit well in 2019 (including Baez and Bryant before injuries derailed them). I don't know if there's any reason to blame Ipoce in particular for the September slump. 

     

  • crunch 5 days 9 hours ago (view)

    iapoce expected to stay.  i'm surprised.  i know it's a weird/short season, but it was a season-long slump for a lot of guys and answers weren't showing up.

     

  • crunch 5 days 10 hours ago (view)

    i eagerly await the espn 10 part mini-series "Rafael Palmeiro, More Like Rafael Baseballmerio" covering those 28 legendary games.