Outright or Outta Sight, Successor or Failure
Look for the Cubs to outright at least two players this week, possibly more.
Now that the Cubs season is over, C Taylor Teagarden and OF Quintin Berry will very likely get outrighted to Iowa (neither is likely to get claimed off waivers). Then once outrighted, both players will very likely elect to be a free-agent (both are Article XX-D players), Teagarden because he has accrued at least three years of MLB Service Time, and Berry because he has been outrighted previously in his career).
INF Jonathan Herrera is another candidate to get outrighted this week. Herrera would very likely elect to be a free-agent if he is outrighted, but unless his 40-man roster slot is needed right away (it's not), the Cubs will probably wait to drop Herrera from the 40 until 12/2 (the date 2016 MLB contracts are tendered). So I would expect the Cubs to non-tender Herrera on 12/2 and then try and re-sign him and his hands-on-helmet to a 2016 minor league contract with an NRI to Spring Training.
The Cubs also might try and outright RHP Dallas Beeler to AAA this week. Beeler could not be outrighted to the minors during September because injured players cannot be outrighted to the minors until the conclusion of the MLB regular season (Beeler was on the Iowa DL at the end of the PCL season), but the window to outright an injured player closes when off-season reserve lists are filed on 11/20, so if they want to outright Beeler, they probably should do so no later than 11/20. Note that unlike Berry, Teagarden, and Herrera, Beeler is NOT eligible to be a free-agent if he is outrighted. If outrighted, Beeler would remain under club control through the 2016 season, in case he gets rollin' at Iowa and the Cubs want to add him back to their MLB 40-man roster before he becomes a Rule 55 minor league 6YFA post-2016.
Jacob Turner is the fifth possibility to get outrighted, but if the Cubs want to do that, they need to outright him prior to 11/20 (because he's an injured player). Turner must be reinstated from the 60-day DL no later than 5 PM (Eastern) on the 5th day following the conclusion of the World Series, and although he might start the 2016 season back on the 60-day DL (he had season-ending non-TJS elbow surgery in June), it's more-likely that if the Cubs decide to drop Turner from the 40 that they will do so by non-tendering him on 12/2 rather than by outrighting after he is reinstated from the DL.
If he is non-tendered on 12/2, the Cubs will almost certainly try and re-sign Turner to a 2016 minor league contract with a low base salary (maybe $100K) while he is rehabbing, but with a pro-rated $1M MLB salary if and when he has completed his rehab, an arrangement the Cubs can't offer if they tender Turner a major league contract on 12/2 or send him outright to the minors prior to 11/20. That's because if he is tendered a major league contract on 12/2, he cannot be cut more than 20% off his 2015 $1M salary (and since he is arbitration-eligble, he would very likely get the $1M even if the Cubs would like to cut him the full 20%), and if he is outrighted and accepts the assignment, his 2016 minor league salary must be at least 80% of his 2016 MLB salary (meaning his 2016 minor league salary would be $800K).
Turner is a Scott Boras client, so I would not be surprised if Boras advises Turner to elect free-agency if he is outrighted or decline signing a minor league contract if he is non-tendered, which might motivate the Cubs to tender Turner a 2016 major league contract on 12/2 (which would be the purpose of Boras making that recommendation) and just hope that he will provide some value (at least $1M worth!) at the MLB level either in the starting rotation or in the bullpen during the course of the 2016 season.
There are eight Article XX-B players presently on the Cubs MLB 40-man roster (Trevor Cahill, Chris Denorfia, Dexter Fowler, Dan Haren, Tommy Hunter, Austin Jackson, Jason Motte, and Fernando Rodney), and the eight will be declared free-agents and dropped from the 40 on the day after the conclusion of the World Series (players used to have to file for free-agency, but now it is done automatically). Only three of the eight (Denorfia, Fowler, and Motte) are eligible to receive a Qualifying Offer, which involves the club offering the player a one-year guaranteed MLB contract with a salary equal to the average salary of the 125 highest MLB salaries in 2015 ($15.8M), but Fowler is almost certainly the only one who will receive a QO. As much as the Cubs like him and as much as he might like playing for the Cubs, Fowler will very likely decline the QO (this is Fowler's first opportunity to be a free-agent, and it's also probably his best chance to score a multi-year big bucks contract).
The Cubs can continue to negotiate with Fowler even if he declines the QO, but they would have to compete with the other 29 MLB clubs for Fowler's services, and it's unlikely that the Cubs would want to sign Fowler to a contract for longer than two years. If the Cubs extend Fowler a QO (VERY likely) and he subsequently signs a major league contract with another MLB club prior to the 2016 MLB First-Year Player Draft (Rule 4 Draft), the Cubs will be awarded a compensation draft pick between the 1st and 2nd round in next June's draft.
The Cubs also must decide by 5 PM (Eastern) on the 5th day after the conclusion of the World Series whether to add any of their post-2015 MLB Rule 55 minor league free-agents who have not signed a 2016 minor league successor contract to their MLB 40-man roster to keep the player from becoming a 6YFA.
Willson Contreras is a lock to get added to the 40 (either by the post-WS deadline to add a 6YFA, or by the 11/20 deadline to submit MLB and minor league reserve lists to the MLB Office if he signs a minor league successor contract).
Besides Contreras, the Cubs probably will want to try and retain 25-year old RHSP Carlos Pimentel (PCL Pitcher of the Year) and 25-year old RHSP Felix Pena (the ace of the AA Tennessee rotation and Cubs minor league K-leader in 2015), preferably by signing the player to a 2016 minor league successor contract rather than by adding the pitcher to the 40. A club can usually entice a Rule 55 minor league 6YFA to sign a successor contract by offering the player "40-man roster split-contract money" (the salary he would get if he was on the 40-man roster and on Optional Assignment to the minors) plus an NRI to Spring Training with the big club. (The Cubs did this with Dae-Eun Rhee, Marcus Hatley, and Hunter Cervenka in previous years).
The problem is, a player will usually not sign a minor league successor contract two years in a row, and Pimentel signed one last year. (Pimentel signed a minor league contract with the Cubs post-2013 after becoming a Texas Rangers minor league 6YFA, and then he signed a minor league successor contract with the Cubs after last season).
There is nothing to prevent a Rule 55 minor league 6YFA from simply declining a successor contract offer, and if that happens, the only other way the Cubs can retain the player is by adding him to their MLB 40-man roster. However, signing a Rule 55 minor league 6YFA to a minor league successor contract (but then not adding him to the MLB 40-man roster) is no guarantee that the player won't get selected in the December Rule 5 Draft. In fact, that is exactly how the Cubs were able to select RHRP Hector Rondon in the December 2012 Rule 5 Draft.
The Cleveland Indians re-signed Rondon (who was a post-2012 minor league 6YFA) to a 2013 minor league succeesor contract prior to 5 PM (Eastern) on the 5th day following the conclusion of the 2012 World Series, but they ended up losing him in the December 2012 Rule 5 Draft anyway. So the Cubs need to consider that possibility even if Pena and/or Pimentel agree to sign a 2016 minor league successor contract.
Then 11/20 is the deadline for clubs to file off-season MLB and minor league reserve lists with the MLB office. These reserve lists are used to determine eligiblity for selection in the December Rule 5 Draft, and once the reserve lists are filed, Rule 5 Draft eligible players on minor league reserve lists are essentally "frozen," meaning the player cannot be added to the MLB 40-man roster, transferred to a different minor league reserve list, traded, or released until the concluision of the Rule 5 Draft.
At present, the players most likely to be added to the Cubs MLB Reserve List (40-man rioster) by the 11/20 deadline are (in this order):
1. Willson Contreras, C (if he signed a successor contract instead of being added to the 40 by the post-WS deadline)
2. Pierce Johnson, RHSP (currently playing in AFL)
3. Jeimer Candelario, 3B (currently playing in AFL)
4. Dan Vogelbach, 1B (played in AZ Advanced Instructional League post-2015)
5. Felix Pena, RHSP (if he signed a successor contract instead of being added to the 40 by the post-WS deadline)
6. Corey Black, RHRP (currently playing in AFL)
7. Carlos Pimentel, RHSP (if he signed a successor contract instead of being added to the 40 by the post-WS deadline)
Again, Conteras, Pena, and/or Pimentel could get added to the MLB 40-man roster by 5 PM (Eastern) on the 5th day after the conclusion of the World Series, but the deadline would get pushed-back to 11/20 if the player signs a 2016 minor league successor contract.
Because the Cubs will lose eight Article XX-B MLB free-agents (Cahill, Denorfia, Fowler, Haren, Hunter, Jackson, Motte, and Rodney) the day after the conclusion of the World Series, with at least another two players (Berry and Teagarden) likely to be outrighted, the Cubs would have no difficulty rostering all seven of the possible additions (Contreras, Johnson, Candelario, Vogelbach, Pena, Black, and Pimentel), with two 40-man roster slots still left open for off-season MLB free-agent signings, waiver claims, or even a Rule 5 Draft pick, plus even more 40-man roster slots potentially available if and when Beeler, Herrera, and/or Turner are outrighted or non-tendered.
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