Nothing Beats September Baseball

GAME 151 IN-GAME DISCUSSION THREAD [PARACHAT] CHICAGO CUBS (74-76) @ MILWAUKEE BREWERS (73-76) MILLER PARK, 6:35 pm CDT, TV: WCIU, FSN
Doug Davis, LHP
10-10, 3.95 ERA
183/88 K/BB, 24 HR in 202.2 IP
Jerome Williams, RHP
5-8, 4.30 ERA
60/39 K/BB, 12 HR in 102.2 IP
SS #Neifi Perez CF Brady Clark
2B *Todd Walker SS J.J. Hardy
1B Derrek Lee 1B *Lyle Overbay
3B Nomar Garciaparra LF Carlos Lee
RF *Jeromy Burnitz RF *Geoff Jenkins
LF Matt Murton 3B Bill Hall
CF *Corey Patterson 2B Rickie Weeks
C Michael Barrett C Damien Miller
P Jerome Williams P *Doug Davis
2 weeks left and every series is crucial from here on out. We're guaranteed to see some well-played baseball this week as the two teams battle it out for the crucial third spot in the NL central. Sure, history tells us that no one remembers who finishes second, but it's got nothing to say about third place. Throw in that Dusty is chasing the white whale named Mediocrity (better known as a .500 record) with Ned Yost's ship not even a boat length behind and we got the makings of some gripping baseball up the 294. The season series is on the line as well, the Brew Crew currently up 7-6. Jerome Williams goes to the mound tonight, he's been living the life of luck his last 5 starts: 2-2, 2.35 ERA, 30.2 IP, 14K/11BB, 1 HR Okay luck and keeping the ball in the ballpark, still think he has a lot to prove before I'm ready to pencil him in as a starter next year. September baseball, it's fantastic.

Comments

Might as well pencil him in the fifth slot. It's not like anyone is going to get a chance to take it from him this season.

Neifi Perez, SS Todd Walker, 2B Derrek Lee, 1B Nomar Garciaparra, 3B Jeromy Burnitz, RF Matt Murton, LF Corey Patterson, CF Michael Barrett, C

Neifi's one of the best table-setters in the game, dude.

Billy Corgan is a bright baseball fan. Just read his Q&A covering for Paul Sullivan, and he knows what's going on.

jerome williams would sure look nice in a tampa bay devil rays uniform...maybe bringing us the elusive leadoff man-carl crawford or the number 5 hitter we need like aubrey huff. how about dannys baez? basically, i think we should trade williams to a team that needs a cheap starter.

since it seems dead..dunno who's watching this game.. d.lee gets served (so far) with 4Ks in a row from davis...going up high and missing a ton m.murton hits a m.wise changeup left in the middle of the plate off the fat of the bat and well over the wall s.williamson's slider is definately back tonite...looking wuertz-style nasty...oh yeah, wuertz gave up a homer, himself, but didnt look bad.

"jerome williams would sure look nice in a tampa bay devil rays uniform...maybe bringing us the elusive leadoff man-carl crawford or the number 5 hitter we need like aubrey huff. how about dannys baez? basically, i think we should trade williams to a team that needs a cheap starter." Crawford's career OBP is 320 and his career high 331. I am willing to live with that from a masher, but not a leadoff hitter. Huff is a poor mans ManRam and he is that way because he cant him like him but he can sure play D like him. Baez I like but he is not that much of an upgrade over Dempster. If your going to trade Williams I want Dunn, Manram, or Soriano back.

Funny, Chifan3887, but you sound about as ridiculous as Tampa ownership in your trade demands. 5th starter with, what, 3rd starter upside for Adam Dunn? Riiiiiiight. Good luck with all that.

I never said we could go get those guys for Williams straight up. Of course we would have to thrown in some minor leaugers. However I would say Williams will be at least a solid 3 with his upside being a good 2. He is good and dont judge him or guys like Kolb off of 1 season. He had the whole start of his season interupted this guy put up good # with SF.

"If your going to trade Williams I want Dunn, Manram, or Soriano back." YOUR not going to get that

I never said we could go get those guys for Williams straight up. Of course we would have to thrown in some minor leaugers. Oh, okay... since you add change to Jerome and thereby create a package for a useful impact player (or Alfonso Soriano), then the other team will jump. I'm sure there'll be a bigger crowd tomorrow: we are fighting to see who gets to raise the third-place banner on Opening Day next year.

CHIFAN3887, I am afraid you will have to slip Carl Lindner some funny brownies to make that trade. If Adam Dunn is traded, a big if from reading Gammons and other national correspondents, it will be for a stud pithcer, say someone like Prior. Speaking of Prior, should we trade him, or should the Cubs sign him to a big $10,000,000 per Wood like contract that will extend beyond his walk season of 2007? His health is almost a questionable as Wood's, but of course once we trade him he will turn into this generation's Roger Clemens and Greg Maddux. Just throwing this out for discussion. Certainly I prefer trading him then just letting him walk like the Cubs let Maddux walk in 1992 under the Larry Himes, deer in the headlights, school of management. A follow up to Ron Galt's post on another chat, I grew up in Park Ridge, a northside suburb, and rooted for the Cubs and then the White Sox through high school. But then I went to college and then law school, and I ran into a lot of Cub hating Sox fans. After some time of living and working with these folks, and taking their jibes about the Cubs for years and watching their glee at some humiliating Cub loss (see 1984 and San Diego), nothing would give me more pleasure then seeing their hang dog look after a Sox loss. I am a bit down that Indians let me down tonight. I am all for getting Soriano. After all he is the sort of selfish, me-first, flashy athletic player with poor defense, poor base-running, and poor OBP that the Cubs seem obsess over, so he will fit right in with the current team. Probably should trade Murton for him, a cheap, boring, high OBP player who is averaging a home run every 20 at bats. Makes sense to me as the Cubs are aiming for 4th place next season unless the Reds find some pitching.

CFIG, I did not say we could get Dunn for Williams. What why was trying to say is that Williams is a solid young pitcher and we shouldn't trade him for run of the mill guys like Crawford and Huff who look like SS because of whats around them. On Soriano he is the best avalible option we have for a 5 hitter. Dunn will cost the farm, and Giles and Matsui will not leave where there at. His job would not be to get on base, it would be to protect Ram. At RF he would be an average D player and also he would lead the team in SB. Also for a guy who can only hit in TEX he did pretty good hitting at Yankee Stadium. He is a good player and not somekind of Jose Macias clone that alot of people on this board think he is. Remember how many people that it was doomsday when we got Burnitz? That did not turn out so bad.

While I would be happy to have Dunn at the right price I think to call him average defensively at any position is a stretch. Maybe on a softball team but not in MLB. He's actually a born DH. He looks to be in physical danger in the field.

"I also owe it to baseball and owe it to the Phillies and the Florida Marlins and the Washington Nationals to play my best lineup because those teams are competing with Houston in the wild-card race." - Baker While I agree with Baker's sentiment, I will be interested to see what he considers his best line up.

"However I would say Williams will be at least a solid 3 with his upside being a good 2. " That's a stretch at this point. Crawford? Dunn? for Jerome Williams? Throw in a minor leaguer or two? Sure... Puff...Puff...Pass...

"However I would say Williams will be at least a solid 3 with his upside being a good 2. " I guess that depends on what team you are talking about... If you are talking about a team with any playoff aspirations - then there is no way he is anywhere near those levels right now. If you are talking about a team that will struggle to play .500 baseball, then those are realistic. In either case, the odds of getting an all-star calibre player for Jerome Williams is slim unless that player is coming to you at a ridiculous cost factor.

He is a good player and not somekind of Jose Macias clone that alot of people on this board think he is. Nobody thinks he's a Jose Macias clone. The players are similar in that they're not worth anything near what they're paid; they're different because one of them makes ten million dollars. Remember how many people that it was doomsday when we got Burnitz? That did not turn out so bad. Here's another 2005 storyline that shouldn't be allowed to take root. Burnitz is 21st in VORP among RFs, despite being in the top 6 in PA. In fact, his line is strikingly similar to someone else's: Cubs starting RF, 2005: 265/333/451 Cubs starting RF, 2004: 253/332/517 He wasn't a disaster--he was a tepid non-factor who didn't completely fall apart, which was the extent of his upside.

The only position I hear Soriano will consider playing is 2b, and as a 2d baseman, he makes Fletcher look like a whiz on defense. I am with Ron as to his (over)value. Those who are in Chicago may say I am all wet on this, but just reading the beat writers on the web, seeing the Dusty and Hendry quotes, I get the feeling that as soon as Murton has a 1 for 20, he will be history, buried on the bench or shuffled off to Iowa. Unlike Patterson, who they ache and pine to succeed, it seems they have no emotional investment in Murton. The kid better avoid slumps next year as I don't think the management believes in his talent.

Speaking of Prior, should we trade him, or should the Cubs sign him There is no way you trade Mark Prior. Yes, he is an injury risk (but nowhere near the risk of Wood), but his upside is incredible. We have seen what Prior can do, and it is great. If Prior can stay healthy, he will be one of the best pitchers of our generation. You don't trade a player like that unless it is for someone like Pujols or Miguel Cabrera, and we know that is not going to happen.

In response to Prior's health being almost as questionable as Wood's -- that is a myth whose roots come from the media's insistance on constantly grouping the two together, and nothing more. Wood could very well continue to blow his arm each and every year because of his mechanics, but Prior will remain healthy unless he is the victim of any more freak incidents. In short: If you trade him, don't do it under the false belief that he's fragile and therefore prone to injury. You aren't going find a pitcher in baseball who is going to hold up any better in such a nasty collision with Marcus Giles, or when a line drive off the bat of some guy whose unfortunate last name sounds like a ridiculous battle cry goes SCUD missile on your elbow. Prior has been, and will be, a much better, much more consistant pitcher than Wood, and that will continue bear out over the next couple of years -- provided Wile E. Coyote doesn't drop and anvil on his head, or something of the like.

Does anyone know where David Kelton was this year and how he did?

Kelton spent a full year at Iowa. His line: 460 AB, 11 HR, 67 RBI - .283/.329/.460. Out of options. Out of chances with the Cubs organization, I'm afraid.

Why are you afraid that Kelton's going to be gone?

"There is no way you trade Mark Prior." Not if you intend on competing next year - I agree. But if the decision is made that the window is closed, and that you want to blow this thing up, then it is a reasonable discussion that management would have behind closed doors, and never let the fans hear one word of. You could literally have the farm for him if you wanted. Look what Oakland got from STL for Mulder. (Barton, Calero, Haren) If we are going to go out in FA and fill our holes, and try and build a legit contender in 2006, you keep Prior. But if we are coming back with a bullpen full of junk, CP in CF, a Burnitz type RF and Ronny Cedeno at SS, then there is no reason not to consider looking into getting anything for someone to take Wood (10mm) off our hands and to find someone willing to pay top value (3 high end MLB ready prospects) for Prior. It wouldn't be one bit popular amongst the busloads of morons coming to see the Cubs. It wouldn't be popular with the media. But if the decision is that next year is not winnable, it's a real discussion. "provided Wile E. Coyote doesn't drop and anvil on his head, or something of the like. " Or he have a groin, a calf, a hammy, a back, or any of a number of ailments. You don't know. All I know is that Prior has them more than most #1 pitchers do. "Out of options. Out of chances with the Cubs organization, I'm afraid." I missed the part when he did ever have a chance. He couldn't play defense in the IF, so they moved him to the OF. As a bad hitter, that, right there, was the end of David Kelton. If he could be a mediocre hitter and play 3B, he could have had a few years here as a backup IF. In fact, given Aramis' injuries, he might have gotten more playing time than any of us would have wanted to see. But when his arm was proven too soft to play 3B, that was the end of any shot he warranted. I have to imagine Kelton will be a Minor League FA after this year.

the FA starting pitching market is pure ass...to believe the cubs are gonna go out and actually try to sign anyone worth a damn is as sketchy as trading prior. burnett...millwood...morris...??? hell, i wouldnt want a piece of morris, but that's all i can come up with off the top of my head. a lotta teams are looking SP...i wouldnt count on anything other than zambrano/prior/maddux/wood/williams at this point outta sheer neccesity...especially considering rich hill doesnt seem to be an answer for 06 and mitre cant get it together, himself. i guess rusch is in the mix if he's willing to devalue himself to play for 2m, but looking at the SP FA market i doubt he'll stick around cuz he could easily get 3+m somewhere else.

barrett, patterson and cedeno for juan pierre and paul loduca, anyone? huff could handle left field and still has monster-number potential jacque jones for right field rafael furcal and omar infante turning double plays? more than one move needed to solve this mess

Why not go after Morris? We could move Jerome Williams to the pen...if someone gets hurt, we start Mr. WIlliams...you can never have enough SP's...just a thought...

If the Cubs didn't have a gigantic payroll, then I'd say trading Prior might make some sense. But we do, and the Cubs should see if Prior maintains a reasonable degree of health between now and 2007-08 or whenever he comes up for free agency, they should break the bank on him. It's one thing if you have no chance of retaining your players: it's another if you don't know what they'll be. I don't think Prior's at the point where the Cubs can take that kind of risk, but it's all moot because, as you say, they'd never do it for marketing reasons. This also applies to Zambrano, and if they can't break the bank on both of them when the time comes, then they need to do it anyway and make huge cutbacks somewhere else. That means not pouring any huge money into the rotation now: it's going to consume plenty between these two for awhile. The mid-decade window is over. With the exception of Furcal, the Cubs' needs aren't a good match for the market this offseason (unless one takes the cynical route of "big-name over-30 veteran whose best years are behind him"), and they're probably not going to be able to improve themselves enough to win anything significant in 2006. As for the discussions management should be having behind closed doors, I guarantee that TCR posters will do a lot more thinking about 2007-2008 than they will. The Cubs' brass is going to be in "impress people now so we can keep our jobs" mode. A gaggle of CEOs and shareholders can tell you how well that works out.

why go after morris? there's 3 FA pitchers worth a damn...being that morris is one of them, that's scarey as hell. its so weak and there's gonna be a lot of buyers...this offseason should signal the return of the 3-5m starter who isnt worth 1/2 of that cuz of the sheer unavailability of guys who can fill roles. yeah, the weak market accellerates the value of the cubs star pitchers, but its so weak the worth of the midrange/cheap kids are also falsely propped. they could probally get what they need to get without even thinking of trading the big guys.

"1) barrett, patterson and cedeno for juan pierre and paul loduca, anyone? 2) huff could handle left field and still has monster-number potential 3) jacque jones for right field 4) rafael furcal and omar infante turning double plays? more than one move needed to solve this mess" I'd do #1 in a heartbeat #2 - Huff? Is it still not apparent that this guy was a juicer? His bad D is well known and he's worse offensively than Burnitz. I wish Cubs fans would get over this guy. #3 Jacque Jones is another overrated strikeout machine who has to play in a platoon because he CAN NOT hit lefties. #4 Furcal would be great. I'm not so sure about infante. Aside from #1 and Furcal, what makes you think those changes would be any better than what the Cubs had this year? Still sounds like a shitty mess to me.

In regard to Prior having more injuries than most #1 pitchers: Roughly half the teams in the ML have what I'd term a legit #1 type. Of those, here are their stories: Atlanta: Smoltz hurt now, has a history of injuries dating back to the nineties Boston: Schilling has a history of injuries dating back to the nineties, hurt all this year, hurt two years ago Florida: Beckett and Burnett have had serious injury problems since the beginning of their careers Houston: Pettitte missed a ton of last year and a significant portion of 2002 with injuries. Mets: From 2001-2003 Pedro never topped 200 innings, he's got a rotator cuff tear he's pitching through, too, if I recall correctly San Diego: Jake Peavy has yet to top 200 innings in his career, though he has a shot at doing so this year San Fran: Jason Schmidt has had all kinds of injury problems throughout his career and is having them again this year St. Louis: Carpenter has been nothing but injured his whole career, and missed the WS last year with injuries Toronto: Halladay has missed major time in 3 of the last 5 years That leaves Johan Santana, Randy Johnson, Mark Buehrle, Clemens, Willis, and if you want to really stretch the bounds of what constitutes a legit #1, Colon and Livan Hernandez as durable aces. And Willis and Santana may well have their problems too. This is quick research, so I'm sure I missed a couple of guys. But you catch my drift. Prior doesn't really have more problems than most other aces at all.

Morris sucks. They'd be as well off to keep Rusch. Morris has had the highest run support in the NL this year and still only managed a weak 14-9 record. Morris is mediocre, a 4th starter at best.

a lotta overpaid starters gonna earn some serious loot this offseason...personally, im thrilled the cubs have a starting 1-5 already under control. all that's a question seems to be if wood will rehab/heal on time.

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  • Wrigley Rat 14 hours 10 min ago (view)

    Tyler Suellentrop:
    - 92-95 mph https://twitter.com/P15Sports/status/1371873329565...
    - Dominant in the B9th with a 1-2-3 frame, striking out all three batters. FB 93-97 T98 https://twitter.com/rayteodora1/status/13015758552...

     

  • crunch 14 hours 16 min ago (view)

    it's really cool how playing vs DET in 2021 counts toward the MLB win/loss totals of a team.  it's like using a cheat code.

     

  • crunch 18 hours 23 min ago (view)

    there has been a ton of fringe signings the past 48 hours by many teams...guys that were not playing organized ball or playing indie ball for the past 1-2+ seasons.

     

  • tim815 19 hours 9 min ago (view)

    The Cubs have apparently signed Tyler Suellentrop, a pitcher drafted by Seattle in 2018 from Indian River Community College in Florida. He's been assigned to Myrtle Beach. I expect he'll pitch on Friday.

     

  • crunch 20 hours 6 min ago (view)

    wrigley going 60% capactity may 28th.  hopefully we'll be 100% by july/august.

    we're getting closer to "normal."  i hope we can get things stable for those that can't get a vax, and those that are still refusing or on the fence will cross over and join the rest of functioning society.

    as someone who was on strong chemo with a wide open immune system a decade ago, i'm thinking about them and others in similar health conditions.

     

  • Arizona Phil 1 day 14 hours ago (view)

    VIDEO: Zach Davis and Rochest Cruz are (were) probably the two fastest players (sprint-speed on the bases) in the Cubs system (though not Cruz anymore, obviously). 

     

  • Arizona Phil 1 day 15 hours ago (view)

    Cubs minor league RHRP Ben Hecht (Cubs 2017 12th round pick - Wichita State) had TJS a couple of days ago. 

     

  • videographer 1 day 18 hours ago (view)

    Rochest Cruz had some success in the DSL a couple of years ago.  Too bad he didn't pan out.  Carlos Pacheco showed power numbers in the DSL two or three years ago along with a high K rate.

     

  • tim815 2 days 10 hours ago (view)

    The rush to 70 players.

     

  • Arizona Phil 2 days 10 hours ago (view)

    The Cubs have released OF Luis Berrelleza, INF Rochest Cruz, LHP Misael Garcia, OF Orlando Guzman, C-1B Brayan Mancilla, RHP Yander Montero, OF Carlos Pacheco, and OF John Rodriguez. 

     

  • crunch 2 days 13 hours ago (view)

    it screws up stats.  i know you play for wins/losses, but real money is on the line for players and makes agent/player homework selling their client a bit harder.

    it also makes historical comparisons difficult.

    the amount of time i've seen a fresh inning starting out...bunt guy to 3rd for an out, IBB, IBB is too high.  what would amount to a leadoff single following that can easily turn into 2 runs (1 earned) with guys on the corner...which usually leads to another IBB.

     

  • Charlie 2 days 14 hours ago (view)

    Jay Jaffe has a timely argument against the runner on second rule over at fangraphs: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-runner-on-second-i...

    I still don't know why we don't just have ties. Obviously, the Cubs could have dodged most of these situations by simply hitting a little bit during the regulation innings.

     

  • Arizona Phil 2 days 17 hours ago (view)

    The Cubs have signed free-agent RHSP Adrian Sampson to a minor league contract and he has been assigned to AAA Iowa, and RHP Michael McAvene, LHP Jack Patterson, and OF Donnie Dewees have been placed on the 60-day IL to open up slots for Sampson, Trayce Thompson, and Kyle Ryan on the Cubs minor league 180-man Domestic Reserve List. 

     

  • crunch 2 days 17 hours ago (view)

    well that sucked.

    2-game sweep, 2 games under .500

     

  • crunch 2 days 17 hours ago (view)

    stumbled onto this today...clip from a 2019 ESPN broadcast game with boog, chipper jones, and david ross in the booth...

    https://www.mlb.com/cut4/chipper-jones-sciambi-lau...

    boog used to call games for ATL, btw...

     

  • tim815 2 days 20 hours ago (view)

    Someone on social media was floating Yoelqui Cespedes to the Cubs in a Bryant trade.

    I was clueless if it was permitted. It is.