All I Want For Christmas Is A Right Fielder

Today we have a guest column from long-time TCR reader and occasional guest poster RJ Johnson. It's a look at the Cubs' off-season moves so far, something that I think a few people around here have been interested in talking about. Like Trans said, let's try to keep the discussion focused on the article at hand and use the TICH comments for everything else. Enjoy! ========== It's December after the Winter Meetings when all good fans' thoughts turn to, "What did our GM do this time?" Let's see what Santa Hendry has left for us under the tree along with some speculation as to what else might be opened up before the spring thaw. After months of caterwauling about the lack of a competent leadoff hitter, Trader Jim has unwrapped Juan Pierre as the Cubs new center-fielder. Yes, he gave up three pitching prospects and the thought that any one of them might turn out to be the second coming of Dontrelle Willis gives one pause. But I like the trade for what it gives the Cubs now in much the same way that I like the Derrek Lee trade. Maybe one of the pitchers will pan out, but we get several years of Pierre now. Yes, Pierre is coming off of his worst season since his rookie year, but his numbers are an improvement over Patterson's and, unlike Corey, he seems coachable. More importantly, the Cubs offense now features Lee, Aramis Ramirez, Michael Barrett, and Pierre as above-par everyday contributors all of whom are still in their career primes. For a quick refresher, let's look at the Cubs at the end of 2002, the year Hendry took over in mid-season:

Pos Player     Age	OPS  
 C  Girardi     37	566
1B  McGriff     38	858
3B  Mueller     31	757
CF  Patterson   22	676

versus their replacements as of the close of 2005:

Pos Player     Age      OPS
 C  Barrett	28      824
1B  D. Lee      29     1080
3B  Ramirez     27      926
CF  Pierre      27      680

Granted Pierre isn't much of an upgrade over Patterson, but if he returns to his 03-04 form he gives the Cubs an OPS in center of 757. Much has been made of Pierre's soft toss arm as allowing more runners to advance and I'll grant that, but his range factor in center is the same as Patterson's (league-adjusted per 9 innings) and Andruw Jones's for 2005. I have to see him as a net gain over 2004. At the other end of the spectrum, the Cubs replaced Jose Macias with John Mabry. While Mabry's 702 OPS is not going to make him a starting 1B, 3B or corner outfielder at age 34, he is certainly an improvement over the chronically anemic Macias, who in 190 plate apperances at age 33 last year staggered to a nearly sub-Mendozan 590 OPS. Mabry gives the Cubs both a solid left-handed bat for pinch hitting and a competent back-up for Ramirez, Lee, and Murton so that all of them can get rest this season. Tending to his own, Hendry re-signed Todd Walker (very good) and Neifi Perez (good, if Neifi only plays backup and defensive replacement), while letting go of Jeromy Burnitz's contract (good business decision). My thinking had been that the Cubs would try to re-sign Burnitz to a 2-year deal at a better price, but Hendry was determined to get a better right fielder. One other thing about tending to your own: kudos for recognizing that Matt Murton should be the starting left fielder and that Ronnie Cedeno gets to be at shortstop. Both kids played smart and hard during their 2005 call ups and earned the opportunity to start. On the pitching front, Hendry continues to add veteran middle relievers. Neither Bobby Howry nor Scott Eyre were overused in 2005 --Howry threw 73.0 innings in 79 appearances; Eyre 68 1/3 over 86 games-- and both had remarkable control in '05: Eyre averaged barely more than one baserunner per inning while Howry allowed .89 walks plus hits per inning. This is an improvement over the strikeouts uber alles philosophy that led them to signing high-K/poor-control guys the past couple of years. Again, Hendry was smart in keeping his own guys under contract. I was surprised at how easy the re-signing of Ryan Dempster was, but I'm guessing he gave the Cubs a discount for them being willing to sign him when he was in the midst of his arm problems. Picking up the option on Scott Williamson seems odd to me, given that Roberto Novoa seems to fit the same role, but maybe Novoa is slated for more time at AAA this year to refine his control. The real surprise among the pitcher re-signs, though, was Glendon Rusch's 2-year deal. Rusch had made it clear that he was interested in an opportunity to be a regular starter in 2006. Given that as of 10/31 when he signed the Cubs had a starting rotation of Mark Prior, Carlos Zambrano, Greg Maddux and Kerry Wood (depending on his shoulder surgery), along with minor leaguers Jon Koronka, Rich Hill, Angel Guzman, and Sergio Mitre (again, at the time), I was not understanding where Rusch was going to find his innings. Did he and Hendry think Wood wouldn't be ready for 2006 or that Kerry was slated for bullpen duty? Then new Phillies GM Pat Gillick announced that right fielder Bobby Abreu could be had and many things come to make sense. While Abreu is 31 years old, he has a solid track record of providing power and on base production --his career OPS is 923 with a slight dip in 2005 to 879-- and is a very healthy player, appearing in over 151 games in each of his past 8 seasons. A Cub lineup with him in the middle would be formidable indeed. The question is: can the two teams find a trade that both makes sense and doesn't get either GM lynched? Clearly, the Phillies want a top of the rotation starter. Just as clearly, the Cubs don't want to part with either Prior or Zambrano. Or do they? I'm of the opinion that all things being equal, an everyday position player for a starting pitcher is an uneven trade in favor of the team getting the position player. Clearly, the Cubs lose on age --both Prior and Zambrano are under 25-- but the question remains: who would I rather let go of in such a swap, Prior or Zambrano? Zambrano has been the healthier of the two, but that means his arm has been piling up innings. Prior's health has not been pitching-related, but he's yet to put together a full, uninjured season since 2003 and even then he sat out a few starts. Bothersome, but it does mean his arm hasn't been put under as much strain. Either way, if the Phillies want to do Abreu for either Prior or Zambrano straight up, I'd pull the trigger. I'd just do it a little quicker if I was giving up Zambrano rather than Prior. Ideally, the Cubs could do a several-for-one trade. I would be happy to package Kerry Wood, Corey Patterson, and either Angel Guzman or Rich Hill for Abreu. Now, would Gillick take that trade? Dunno, but likely not (although I have a hunch that something like that has been proposed). Current rumors are swirling around the Cubs signing Jacque Jones of the Twins to which I say, "Look! It's the younger version of Jeromy Burnitz." I'd be unwilling to do more than a 2-year deal as I don't want him in the way of Felix Pie. All in all, a very nice holiday hot stove season for the Cubs. I'm looking forward to 2006 already.