Game 83 Thread / Cubs @ Giants (1 of 4)

Submitted by Rob G. on Mon, 06/30/2008 - 8:57pm

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SP *Ted Lilly SP *Barry Zito
  5-8, 5.40, 95 K, 36 BB, 98.2 IP
3-11, 5.91, 44 K, 48 BB, 80.2 IP
       
RF *Kosuke Fukudome LF *Fred Lewis
SS Ryan Theriot 3B Jose Castillo
1B Derrek Lee RF #Randy Winn
C Geovany Soto C Bengie Molina
3B Mark DeRosa CF Aaron Rowand
CF *Jim Edmonds 1B Rich Aurilia
LF Matt Murton 2B Travis Denker
2B Ronny Cedeno SS #Emmanuel Burriss
P *Ted Lilly P *Barry Zito

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Well that whole American League thing was no good...the Cubs went a paltry 6-9 against what was considered to be a soft interleague schedule at the beginning of the year.

Now it's back to the NL and back to the NL West, whom the Cubs have collectively beaten at an 18-5 clip. They'll get the offensively-challenged Giants tonight and it'll be up to Ted Lilly to try to keep them challenged. Lilly's overall numbers have been disappointing this year, but he's managed a 3.21 ERA in June up to this point. Most of his struggles this year can be attributed to a tendency to give up the gopher ball, but there's some hope that'll correct itself.

If you take a look at some of the numbers on his , his K/9 rate has actually gone up this year, but so has his walk rate, leaving him with a K:BB rate at 2.64 this year, down from 3.16 last year. That's still respectable though along with a 1.32 WHIP for this season. His BABIP is at .293 which is a bit higher than the .273 he gave up last year, but in the general vicinity of where you expect it for most pitchers. His HR/9 rate though is 1.64 this year, well up on his career mark of 1.38 and his 2007 season of 1.22. That can be attributed to a bit of bad luck though as 13.0% of the flyballs he's given up have ended up in the seats. The only time he ever gave up something in that range was 2005 when he also had a 1.64 HR/9 rate and became the proud owner of a 5.59 ERA that season. So it's possible that it will repeat itself, but most pitchers give up home runs around 10-11% of the flyballs hit off them, so it's also quite possible that we'll continue to enjoy the better Lilly the rest of the way.

Cubnut: Aramis Ramirez will miss the first three games of this series, having returned home to the D.R. to

With A-Ram out of the picture, Geovany Soto gets his second crack this year at hitting cleanup, and with DeRo covering third base and the lefthander Zito pitching, Matt Murton gets the nod in leftfield. Murton has hit better than .300 against lefties in each of his big league seasons, but so far, in this aimless season for the redhead, he is just 1-for-14 against southpaws.

Above, Rob refers to the Cubs' lackluster performance in their just concluded interleague play. The thing is, the Cubs were right in step with the NL as a whole. Pending the makeup of at least one rained out game that I know of, between the Yankees and Pirates, the National League went 102-149 (.406) this year against the American League.

The All-Star game should be fun.

 

Tags: 
Ted Lilly
Matt Murton
Gameday Open Thread
Aramis Ramirez

Comments

Submitted by big_lowitzki  on Mon, 06/30/2008 - 10:28pm  
MURTON!!!! But don't worry Matt... it will only buy you more time on the bench.

Submitted by Cubnut  on Mon, 06/30/2008 - 10:49pm  

Murton's 2 RBI, Soto's 2 hits in cleanup spot, DeRo bomb = Ramirez totally expendable.

How did we not see this sooner???

Submitted by Ryno  on Mon, 06/30/2008 - 11:14pm  
lol... I agree. Clearly the team is better off without Reed, Ramirez, Soriano, and Zambrano.

Submitted by Ryno  on Mon, 06/30/2008 - 11:12pm  
Murton having a good game. Meh. That just means the Murtonites will be out in full swing for several weeks now. *sigh* I almost prefer him to have a bad game.

Submitted by big_lowitzki  on Tue, 07/01/2008 - 8:03am  
Yea Ryno... because this team is so much better with Cedeno at 2b and DeRosa in LF than DeRosa at 2n and Murton in LF. Anytime Murton has received a decent amount of playing time, he has hit, and hit well. It is pretty simple. Don't get me wrong - I know that Murton does not have much of a role on this team when Fukudome and Soriano are playing LF and RF, but there really has been no excuse for Murton not playing LF in Soriano's absence.

Submitted by Mister Whipple  on Tue, 07/01/2008 - 10:07am  
Murton's clearly on the block come trade time, so the better he performs now, the greater his value when we make a run at another SP.

Submitted by Ryno  on Mon, 06/30/2008 - 11:36pm  
Mark [email protected]#$ Derosa.

Submitted by JoePepitone  on Mon, 06/30/2008 - 11:36pm  
DeRo Grand Slam!!! 9-0 Cubs!

Submitted by rokfish  on Tue, 07/01/2008 - 12:07am  
how bout that new 3rd baseman first cubs slam since chico walker in san fran first 3rd bagger to do it in san fran since ron santo. definately a good bounce back game by cubs ted lilly not great but got the job done.

Submitted by Rob G.  on Tue, 07/01/2008 - 12:22am  
Cubs petition MLB to be moved to NL West and to face Barry Zito every 5th game!

Submitted by Ryno  on Tue, 07/01/2008 - 6:08am  
How is he so bad? Very strange.

Submitted by Mister Whipple  on Tue, 07/01/2008 - 10:16am  
There could obviously be many reasons, but being a Bay Area sports stud in the early part of this decade whose talents decline significantly after the new testing policy is put in place certainly makes one wonder.

Submitted by Indiana JJ  on Tue, 07/01/2008 - 8:42am  
From the Sun Times: The lengthy absence didn't come without some grumbling from some team officials -- especially after Ramirez originally asked for four days, then seemed distracted during an 0-for-13 series against the White Sox over the weekend. I'm sorry, but begruding a guy a few days to go home for the birth of a child is absolute petty bullshit. I took at least a week off for the births of my kids and I didn't even have to leave the city let alone the country. I wonder who the "team officials" are. What douchebags. http://www.suntimes.com/sports/baseball/cubs/...

Submitted by big_lowitzki  on Tue, 07/01/2008 - 9:21am  
Completely agree. If the Cubs are truly "grumbling" about ARam going back to the DR for the birth of a child, that is bullshit.

Submitted by MikeC  on Tue, 07/01/2008 - 9:02am  
Interesting quote from Jim Leyland... Tigers manager Jim Leyland, on the Twins: "One thing I like about the Minnesota organization is that they go for ballplayers. They don't necessarily go for athletes; they go for ballplayers." That is like the exact opposite of the Cubs organization that goes after athletes instead of ball players. How many times have we heard from a Cubs prospect that "he is the most athletic in the organization?" In reality it means he looks good in a uniform but can't hit in the majors. Theriot = ballplayer Pie = He is very athletic Maybe he should go run track.....

Submitted by big_lowitzki  on Tue, 07/01/2008 - 9:55am  
Well... that might sound good, but in reality, most great baseball players are great athletes rather than just "ballplayers." Pujols. ARod. Hanley Ramirez. DLee. Soriano. Bonds. All "athletes."

Submitted by Wes  on Tue, 07/01/2008 - 10:05am  
I don't know what he means by ballplayers, but I assume it's got something to do with such illustrious concepts as "playing the game the right way" and scrap. The Cubs have had so much success with those types of players in the past. The wonders of the <700 OPS such as Todd Hollansworth, Mark Bellhorn, and Augie Ojeda come to mind off the top of my head. Hell, even 2007 Theriot sucked. Better now, yes, but his 300 AB's this season doesn't necessarily mean the organization should completely change it's philosophy on acquiring talent.

Submitted by Wild Thing  on Tue, 07/01/2008 - 12:51pm  
I say the Cubs outta go for scrappy athletes, like Sandberg.

Submitted by Mitterwald  on Tue, 07/01/2008 - 6:00pm  
Wasn't Sandberg an accomplished three-way athlete growing up in Spokane? Didn't he also play point guard and quarterback? D-Lee was probably a D1-level basketball player. Wasn't Jacque Jones an excellent high school basketball player? (I have no idea if Edmonds ever played football, but I would imagine he would have been an excellent wide receiver.)

Submitted by Vegas Brian  on Tue, 07/01/2008 - 10:33am  
Sure we go for some athletes, but never foreget we really prefer the scrappy :-)

Submitted by Sonicwind75  on Tue, 07/01/2008 - 12:44pm  
I'm waiting for somebody at the Hard Ball Times site to create indepth measurement of scrap with lots of charts and spreadsheets. There could be graph with a horizontal axis measuring "Natural Ability" and verticle axis measuring "Scrap" and then plot different players into the different quandrants. But I guess measuring scrap is very unscrappy.

Submitted by crunch  on Tue, 07/01/2008 - 6:47pm  
give it time. they've already got some stats that are so flimbsy its laughable. ya know, its easy to "prove" a point by setting up your data, but A + B doesn't always mean C is a singular correct. too few give credence to chance, also. if it falls in line, it must be true independent of other factors. *shrug* its bound to happen when you push out as much stuff as they do, though. most of it is great, but you're bound to pick up some "what?" in the mix. actually...didn't someone recently try to measure "scrap" or "heart" in a game. i remember reading something about it month(s) ago and laughing my ass off.

Submitted by Rob G.  on Tue, 07/01/2008 - 6:59pm  

about half-way down is a link to a Nate Silver article on BP

http://thecubreporter.com/2008/03/14/tcr-frid... 

Submitted by crunch  on Tue, 07/01/2008 - 7:16pm  
thnx...its so cute...they should have waited for april 1st to release it, not march 10th. ...or at least feb 14th =p

Submitted by WISCGRAD  on Wed, 07/02/2008 - 8:56am  
Statisticians never try to "prove" anything. Estimating a model gives you the likelihood that something is random given the parameters of that model. It is not about points falling on a line independent of other factors. It is about measuring the likelihood that the points would be arranged as they are while controlling for other factors. Usually our cut-off point is .05 - meaning that there has to be less than a 5% chance that the results were random - before we claim something is statistically significant. So every single model gives "creedance to chance" - in fact that is how we define which variables get noted as being significant and which are not. The heart example discussed below is really just summary statistics of won-loss records vs. PECOTA projections. They chose to call it "heart" because they are trying to be entertaining. It is interesting to see who has overacheived and who has underachieved. They aren't trying to prove anything, nor are they even estimating any model.

Submitted by crunch  on Wed, 07/02/2008 - 8:04pm  
okay..."prove" is a strong word...i guess "strongly influenced to the point of defending the view" would be better...or something along that line. i've seen more than a few really long and thought out A + B = C discussions (or most likely equals C, if you will). just because it's a well thought out bulk work doesn't mean its good logic, though. we have think tanks out there and scientific testing organizations that make a living off making A+B=C before a second of research is done. it usually makes sense and can be argued for true as presented...but tends to ignore or discount things which may (and in some cases do) influence what 'C' actually is. the bigger problem is when someone uses sketchy research to back up their own sketchy research...which is also a huge problem with the "think tank/etc" type research, too. and PECOTA...okay...look...1- i give them credit for actually having the balls to re-edit the formula so many times after they go "oh yeah, i guess we are being ignorant ignoring that" 2- doesn't the fact it's had to be changed/tweaked say enough about how much work there is left to do in this field? people gotta do this work...there's more than a few, though, that are stuck on marketing their stats/opinion company (and themselves now that stats geeks are being hired by almost all teams the past decade+). and yes, i know the article in question was supposed to be entertaining...its why i laughed =p

Submitted by Dmac  on Tue, 07/01/2008 - 5:22pm  
You could call it the "Scrappy McHustlstein" profile, replete with stats including how many games played with pants adjar and/or smudged up.

Submitted by Craig A.  on Tue, 07/01/2008 - 7:02pm  
Athletes hit triples and home runs. Scrappy is demonstrated by running out ground balls, busting up double plays, getting hit by a pitch, putting the ball in play, and never taking a walk. Some of those stats aren't listed conventionally. Maybe HBP/BB would be a good measure, but for most players it would be a very small decimal, which scrappy guys don't go for.

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  • crunch 5 hours 52 min ago (view)

    kevin rizzo is in camp with the cubs and is in workouts with the team.

    very tiny guy, no power, but he can run down a ball in the field and he's almost impossible to pitch to.  time to give him a contract and put him in the OF.

    https://twitter.com/Cubs/status/1366081602242023425

     
  • crunch 6 hours 32 min ago (view)

    Marquee has added a tuesday game, so now the first televised cubs game is March 2nd (3pm EST)

     
  • Arizona Phil 16 hours 22 min ago (view)

    The DFA of Robert Stock to make room for Kyle Ryan coming off the CoViD-related IL wil need to be followed by removing another player on the 40 to make room for Ryan Tepera. 

    It's possible somebody (like a pitcher) is injured to the extent that he might be placed on the 60-day IL, or else maybe somebody else will go on the CoViD-related IL (which is 40-man roster exempt) in the coming days to make room for Tepera.

     
  • Arizona Phil 16 hours 57 min ago (view)

    The Cubs have signed LHSP Ben Holmes (ex-LAD) and RHRP Jose Moreno (ex-NYM) to 2021 minor league contracts. Both were post-2020 minor league 6YFA and neither has been on an MLB 40-man roster.

    Holmes pitched collegiately at Oregon State and has some AAA experience, but Moreno hasn't pitched above Lo-A over the course of seven seasons in the Mets organization.  

     
  • crunch 1 day 2 hours ago (view)

    side note...k.wong is on 1st putting on one of those "baserunning mitts" (hand protection for sliding) that's extending past the length of his hand/fingers by at least 2-3 inches.

    they're going to have to start regulating this piece of equipment if this keeps up...

     
  • crunch 1 day 4 hours ago (view)

    Q with LAA in his debut for them...HBP, a wild pitch, and BB through 7 pitches...then 3 pop-outs to follow.

    blah blah spring training...

    baseball on TV...neat.

     
  • First.Pitch.120 1 day 7 hours ago (view)

    We just traded for Maddux!!!   ......... nope, the other one.

     
  • crunch 1 day 19 hours ago (view)

    yeah, i'm just saying i did consider piling onto it with a troll-level post about the trade...it's practically asking to be written that way.

    jeff passan did it quite well... https://twitter.com/jeffpassan/status/136577746706...

    that said, i had no idea zach bryant existed before today, but his early numbers looked oddly good (which means nothing without context that early in his career).

     
  • Charlie 1 day 20 hours ago (view)

    Oh, I mean the trade. You were quite diligent in posting!

     
  • crunch 1 day 23 hours ago (view)

    i contemplated writing the post totally trolled out as hell with "zach" coming after a wall of text.

    i decided the cubs being cheap was enough pre-season punishment without piling on.

     
  • Charlie 2 days 48 min ago (view)

    This is a straight up troll 

     
  • crunch 2 days 2 hours ago (view)

    rsox aquiring ZACH bryant from the cubs.

    https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player...

    ptbn from the josh osich deal.

    totally useless trade...hopefully not a terrible loss.

     
  • Hagsag 3 days 3 hours ago (view)

    Chase Strumpf and Andy Weber invited to the ML camp.

     
  • Dolorous Jon Lester 3 days 8 hours ago (view)

    Ryan Tepera returns. Major League deal

     
  • crunch 4 days 6 hours ago (view)

    spring training TV is usually fluid...adding and subtracting broadcast games...

    first cubs TV (as of now) is March 3 (wednesday) on ESPN at 3pm EST.

    radio broadcasts available for almost every game that's not televised.  the cubs get going on monday and some other teams will start the day before.

     
  • crunch 5 days 3 hours ago (view)

    dj snelton's left elbow is screwed up...6 weeks rest then re-evaluate.

    looks like he's going to try to avoid having surgery.

     
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