2008 NLDS Preview: Cubs Scoring vs. Dodgers Run Prevention
I'm a little under the weather, so bear with me and this rather bare bones preview...all the substance, none of the fluff.
I never understood the positional breakdowns that many folks do for a series or playoff preview. I understand a team is only as good as the sum of its parts, but Derrek Lee will never have to battle against James Loney at any point in the series. It's more about how one team's pitching and defense will fare against the other team's lineup.
Cubs Offense vs. Dodgers Pitching and Defense
Cubs Hitting: .278/.354/.443 .797 OPS(1st in all those except BA, which they were 2nd), 87 SB's at a 72% success rate (8th in NL)
Dodgers Pitching: .251/.315/.376 .691 OPS, 3.68 ERA (1st in all those except BA, which they were 2nd)
Cubs Hitting vs. Right Handers: .274/.350/.443 .793 OPS
Dodgers Pitching vs. Right Handers: .239/.300/.361 .661 OPS
Dodgers Pitching vs. Left Handers: .268/.334/.396 .730 OPS
Cubs are 64-48 when a right-handed pitchers starts the game.
Dodgers Defense: .693 DER (9th in NL), .825 RZR (12th in the NL)
All Cubs vs. Derek Lowe (link) : 202 AB's vs current Cubs with an aggregate line of: .243/.282/.366 .648 OPS, 1-0 with 27 IP and a 2.67 ERA at Wrigley Field.
Best Cub Hiiter: Derrek Lee has a .969 OPS against him in 28 AB's
Worst Cub Hitter: Jim Edmonds has a .474 OPS in 30 AB's.
Trend: 6-1 in his last 10 starts with a 1.27 ERA
All Cubs vs. Chad Billingsley (link)
: 63 AB's vs current Cubs with an aggregate line of: .222/.300/.381
Best Cub Hiiter: Mark DeRosa has a 1.167OPS against him in 6 AB's
Worst Cub Hitter: Jim Edmonds has a .311 OPS in 11 AB's.
Trend: 5-1 in his last 10 starts with a 3.45 ERA
All Cubs vs. Hiroki Kuroda (link)
: 51 AB's vs current Cubs with an aggregate line of: .216/.259/.235
.495 OPS, Threw complete game shutout against Cubs in Dodger Stadium earlier this year
Best Cub Hiiter: Alfonso Soriano has a .929 OPS against him in 7 AB's
Worst Cub Hitter: A few Cubs went 0 fer in his 2 starts from this year...
Trend: 3-2 in his last 10 starts with a 2.57 ERA
All Cubs vs. Greg Maddux (link)
: 233 AB's vs current Cubs with an aggregate line of: .236/.258/.339
Best Cub Hiiter: Aramis Ramirez has a .804 OPS against him in 21 AB's
Worst Cub Hitter: Derrek Lee has a .622 OPS in 59 AB's.
Trend: 2-4 in 7 starts as a Dodger with a 5.09 ERA
Dodgers Bullpen: 3.33 ERA as relievers lead the NL. 4.68 WPA was 3rd in the NL behind Phillies and Astros.
September Stats for Cubs Hitters (link):
Aramis Ramirez: .956 OPS, 3 HR's, 8 2B's
Jim Edmonds .929 OPS, 4 HR
Micah Hoffpauir .918 OPS
Mike Fontenot .910 OPS
Alfonso Soriano .847 OPS, 6 HR, 13 BB's
Derrek Lee .785 OPS, 25 K's, 8 2B's
Geovany Soto .778 OPS
Mark DeRosa .747 OPS
Daryle Ward .689 OPS
Ryan Theriot .676 OPS, 10 BB's
Henry Blanco .667 OPS
Ronny Cedeno .630 OPS
Reed Johnson .592 OPS
Kosuke Fukudome .577 OPS
- Can the Dodgers defense make the plays?
- Can the Cubs offense stay out of the double play?
- Can the Cubs offense provide a lead before getting into a tough Dodgers bullpen?
- When will a possible Game 4 be played (Dodger Stadium becomes a lot more hitter friendly during the day)?
Thoughts: The Dodgers do have good pitching, that is undeniable with their league
leading team ERA. But the numbers are a bit misleading due to their
playing in the NL West and in a very friendly pitcher's park. The Dodgers pitching played 44% of their games versus the NL West which contained the almighty offenses of the Rockies (8th in Runs Scored even with the Coors Field Effect), Diamondbacks (10th), Giants (15th), and Padres (16th). That's the way to make good look like it's great, which this Dodgers pitching staff is not.
A matter of fact, it could be considered a pretty FLAKEY staff as well, if you believe Baseball Prospectus. While us Cubs fans wonder which Zambrano will show up in Game 2, Dodger fans should worry more about which Kuroda (1st), Lowe(13th) or Billingsley(27th) show up for their games.
The Dodgers do catch a few breaks here. They've been tougher on righties most of the season and the Cubs will likely trot out lineups with only two lefties (Edmonds and either Fontenot or Fukudome). If DeRosa is still hurt, it might be three lefties. Not only that, but one of those lefties (Edmonds) hasn't had much luck versus many of the Dodgers starters.
They Dodgers staff is also pretty good at inducing the ground ball with G/F rates of 2.60, 1.70, 1.85 from Lowe, Billingsley and Kuroda, respectively. Now the Cubs double play propensity has been blown out of proportion, they've only hit into 134 which is 6th in the NL and considering they have the highest OBP in the league, that (likely) means they've had the most opportunties to hit into a double play as well. Compare that to the Dodgers offense which lead the league in hitting into double plays but was only 6th in Team OBP.
The Dodgers bullpen is good, although questions linger with Saito back from the disabled list. It'll remain to be seen how effective and in what role he'll be used. Right now it looks like Broxton will keep the closers job with Saito in the set-up role. They do possess a good 7th inning combination in righty Cory Wade and lefty Joe Beimel that'll try to keep those Cubs late-inning rallies in check.
Preventings runs though is more than just pitching and the Dodgers defense might end up being their Achilles Heel. Rafael Furcal returns from the disabled listand should provide a boost for their offense, but his bad back might hinder him on the defensive end, plus he replaced a solid defensive option in Angel Berroa. Jeff Kent might be back as well and if you have nothing good to say, don't say anything at all. Russ Martin threw out 24.7% of runners this year, below Geovany Soto's 26.7% and the Cubs should look to take an extra base when the opportunity arises in what will likely be some low-scoring games. And while Andruw Jones couldn't hit a lick, the new outfield of Manny Ramirez, Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier should provide a few gaps in the outfield.
The Cubs offense will definitely have their work cut for them and this series will certainly test the good pitching beats good hitting adage. I think the Cubs would be wise to play a little more small ball than they're use to and stay out double play situations as much as they can and put as much pressure on a weak Dodgers defense that they can. It's not the strategy I normally prefer for the marathon that is the 162-game season, but in this series I think the Cubs would be wise to take advantage of the Dodgers faults in these areas.
Arizona Phil 13 hours 20 min ago (view)
In addition to 40 players signed to 2020 MLB contracts, after releasing 22 minor leaguers this week the Cubs now have 279 players signed to 2020 minor league contracts (plus one minor leaguer on the Restricted List), for a total of 320 players in the organization (181 pitchers, 30 catchers, 60 infielders, and 49 outfielders).
JustSayin' 22 hours 34 min ago (view)
Years of over-drafting pitching shown here.
Dolorous Jon Lester 1 day 24 min ago (view)
Some of the players cut I am not too surprised by. Some of them I think are definitely victims of the minor league pay thing and being squeezed out.
That said, I am very surprised they gave up already on Riley McCauley and Niels Stone.
Hagsag 1 day 2 hours ago (view)
Baseball America is showing a big group of players that have been released.
Arizona Phil 1 day 15 hours ago (view)
The Cubs have released minor league catcher Rafelin Lorenzo. He was selected from the Pittsburgh Pirates in the AAA Phase of the 2018 Rule 5 Draft and spent the 2019 season at South Bend. He was eligible to be a minor league 6YFA post-2020.
JustSayin' 3 days 55 min ago (view)
The organizations will cut rosters down, as if the full-season teams were breaking camp to start the season, THEN pay the remaining minor leaguers $400/week or whatever. That's similar to what costs would have normally been but the "one last chance" players who got spring training invitations this year and didn't have an obvious roster spot won't be getting their last chance.
crunch 3 days 2 hours ago (view)
"According to Jeff Passan of ESPN, all minor league players will be receiving $400 per week from MLB through at least May 31."
so that's where that promise landed. the scary thing is that's still more than some in the low minors make on a weekly basis.
crunch 5 days 18 hours ago (view)
"Jeff Passan of ESPN writes that the players and league agreed that the 2020 season won't start until "there are no bans on mass gatherings that limit the ability to play in front of fans, there are no travel restrictions and medical experts determine games will not pose a risk to health of teams and fans." Passan does add that the two sides "will consider the feasibility of playing in empty stadiums" and also at neutral sites.
crunch 6 days 38 min ago (view)
i miss baseball. it could happen in june...it may happen in late may...it might not happen either way.
there's so many things getting messed up right now i would get lost making a list. there's some college guys making a serious "okay, we need to look at that guy" push that's dead. former cubs draft pick russell smith (2017, LHP highschool) took last season off for injury (TCU college) and returned with a low 90s fastball, impressive control, and a MLB-quality changeup. his "comeback" was 4 games and done thanks to this current situation...
JustSayin' 6 days 3 hours ago (view)
COVID 19 + a short draft + Manfred's obsessive drive to shrink the minor leagues will change baseball forever. It WAS still America's grass roots sport. Where I live, from June through August, you could see a quality live game any day of the week, within an hour's drive. I believe that era is over. What's going on will have ripple effects, contracting serious college ball, college summer leagues and independent pro ball just as much as the MiLB systems. With those changes, some of the game's charm will also go. I've seen a kid from Cape Cod play in the Ca
crunch 1 week 49 min ago (view)
fyi for anyone who bought MLB.tv
for "some reason" getting a cancel+refund via phone is like pulling teeth, but if you contact them via a webpage contact request many people are getting a cancel+refund confirmation within an hour or 2...
bradsbeard 1 week 8 hours ago (view)
I imagine because the new labor agreement freezes rosters as of whenever the agreement is approved by the owners and it might affect what those guys are paid under the agreement.
Hagsag 1 week 10 hours ago (view)
AZ Phil. what was the reason that a whole bunch of teams optioned or assigned players to the minor leagues yesterday on March 26 ? Thanks.
Arizona Phil 1 week 14 hours ago (view)
jdrnym: Ordinarily, players on an MLB Reserve List (40-man roster) who are on Optional Assignment to the minors do not accrue MLB Service Time, are paid at the minor league rate rather than at the MLB rate if the player has a "split" contract, and if the player gets hurt or becomes sick after being optioned, he can be placed on a minor league IL instead of on an MLB IL (so that he cannot accrue MLB Service Time or be paid at the MLB rate while he is on the IL). Also, a player who is optioned to the minors for at least 20 days will burn an option year.
jdrnym 1 week 1 day ago (view)
AZPhil, what are the technical ramifications of optioning/not optioning guys during this period of no baseball? Seems like some teams are more eager than others to trim their roster down.
crunch 1 week 2 days ago (view)
"Major League Baseball has agreed with the MLBPA to grant a full year of service time to players in 2020 regardless of how many games the schedule includes.
Rosenthal adds, however, that the two sides have agreed to "table discussions" on how much service time the players would receive if the worst-case scenario plays out and the 2020 season has to be canceled entirely due to the coronavirus pandemic."