The Hall of Fame Case for Ron Santo (Part 1 of 3)
On Monday December 8th, the Baseball
Hall of Fame will announce
the voting results of the Veterans Committee. In a three part series, guest columnist and reader, “Dying Cub Fan”
takes a look at the candidacy of former Cubs third basemen, Ron
Santo. We ran this piece two years ago, but it's lost in Internet limbo and well, Santo deserves it, so we're running it again. Plus, the voting process has changed this year, as there are only 10 players for the committee to consider, so here's hoping this is the year.
“Red
Sox Nation: In your opinion, who’s the best player not in the
HOF?
Bill James: Ron Santo”
10/27/04
Interview with Bill James on RedSoxNation.Net,
1
http://www.redsoxnation.net/forums/index.php?showtopic=11048
Ron
Santo has a meritorious case for election to the
Baseball Hall of Fame. There are currently thirteen third basemen2
in the Hall of Fame: Frank
“Home Run” Baker, Wade
Boggs, George
Brett, Jimmy
Collins, Ray
Dandridge, Judy
Johnson, George
Kell, Freddy
Lindstrom, Eddie
Mathews, Brooks
Robinson, Mike
Schmidt, Pie
Traynor and Jud
Wilson (who was inducted in 2006). When compared to
the ten major league third basemen currently in the Hall of Fame
(leaving aside, for purposes of this discussion, the three Negro
League players, Johnson, Dandridge and Wilson), Santo’s offensive
numbers fit squarely in the middle of that group. The offensive
numbers demonstrate that Santo was better than five of the major
league third basemen currently in the Hall of Fame. The numbers
indicate that Schmidt, Mathews, Brett, Baker and Boggs (in roughly
that order) were better than Santo. Santo has a clear edge on
everyone else.
During his
career Ron Santo was a nine-time All-Star. He finished in the top
ten in MVP voting four times. He had the fifth highest RBI total of
all major league players during the 1960s (topped only by Willie
Mays, Hank
Aaron, Harmon
Killebrew and Frank
Robinson). During that period no player in the
National League drew more walks. 3 He won five
consecutive Gold Gloves at third base, and led NL third basemen in
putouts, assists, chances and double plays in many seasons. He was
among the league leaders in on base percentage and slugging
percentage throughout the 1960s; he finished in the top 10 in both
categories in his league in every season from 1964 through 1967. He
hit more home runs in his career than any third baseman currently in
the Hall of Fame other than Mike Schmidt and Eddie Mathews. He
combined power and defense to a degree that was unprecedented for
third basemen. He coupled that with an ability to draw walks that
added value in a manner that has often gone unappreciated.
In his 2001
Historical Baseball Abstract Bill James ranked Santo as the 6th best
third baseman of all time; he ranked Robinson 7th. He ranked Traynor
as the 15th best third baseman (behind Stan
Hack, Darrell
Evans, Sal
Bando, Ken
Boyer, Graig
Nettles and Al
Rosen), Collins 17th (after Ron
Cey), Kell 30th and Lindstrom 43rd.
Santo fits
squarely within the middle of the group of third basemen in the Hall
of Fame. Santo was arguably the best player at his position in the
major leagues for an extended period of time, a dominant hitter and a
great defender. He should be in the Hall of Fame.
Understanding
Context
One of the
difficult things in evaluating players is determining what statistics
mean in different eras. Yet understanding the context in which Santo
played is important to understanding how good he was, and
understanding what the game was like during the time Collins played,
or when Lindstrom or Traynor played, is important to understanding
what their numbers mean. Santo never hit .379 like Lindstrom did in
1930, or .366 like Traynor did that same year. In what was an
off-year for him, he hit .246 in 1968, the “Year of the Pitcher,”
with 26 homers (6th in the league) and 98 rbi (2nd) when the league
batting average was .243, the average team scored 3.43 runs a game
and the league ERA was 2.98. In 1930, the league batting average in
the NL was .303, the average team scored 5.68 runs per game and the
league ERA was 4.97. In 1930, Bill
Terry hit .401, Babe
Herman hit .393, Chuck
Klein hit .386 and Lefty
O’Doul hit .383;4 Lindstrom’s high
batting average that year was fifth in the league, Traynor’s ninth.
In 1930, the New York Giants’ team batting average was .319; the
Cubs had a team on base percentage of .378 and a team slugging
percentage of .481. The 106 rbi that Lindstrom had in 1930 did not
rank in the top ten in the league that year; Traynor’s 119 rbi that
year were 8th in the league. In Lindstrom’s other big year, 1928,
the average team scored 4.70 runs per game, the league batting
average was .281 and the league ERA was 3.99. In 1967, the NL
batting average was .249, the average team scored 3.84 runs per game
and the league ERA was 3.38. Santo hit .300 with 31 homers (3rd in
the league) and 98 rbi (7th) that year. Santo and Lindstrom finished
in the top ten in batting average the same number of times, three.
Traynor, Lindstrom and Collins all played before the color line was
broken. Traynor, Lindstrom and Collins did not have to face Koufax,
Drysdale, Marichal, Gibson, et al. in the mid-to-late sixties, or
contend with night baseball. Santo did.
In January 1963,
the strike zone was expanded by rule. After 1968, a year in which
the American League batting champion hit .301, rule changes were
instituted lowering the height of the mound from fifteen inches to
ten and reverting the strike zone to its 1962 dimensions. In the
2001 Historical Baseball Abstract, Bill James described the
1963 strike zone change in this way:
The effect of this redefinition was dramatic. The action was taken .
. . because there was a feeling that runs (and in particular home
runs) had become too cheap. Roger Maris’ breaking Babe Ruth’s
single-season home run record contributed to that feeling. The
thinking was that, by giving the pitchers a few inches at the top and
bottom of the strike zone, they could whittle the offense down just a
little bit.
The action cut deeper than anticipated. Home run output in 1963
dropped by ten percent, and total runs dropped by 12%, from 4.5 per
game to 3.9. Batting averages dropped by twelve points. Baseball’s
second dead ball era had begun. (2001 Historical Baseball
Abstract, p. 249)
James has also
noted that some teams (the most notable example being the Dodgers)
took advantage of the fact that mound height was not closely
regulated during the ’60s to build mounds even higher than the
fifteen inches the rules then permitted, giving power pitchers even
more of an advantage. Santo’s best years coincided exactly with
this period.5
One of the best
ways of trying to assess the historical context of a player’s
numbers is to examine that player’s performance relative to his
contemporaries. Of readily available statistics, the OPS+ stat does
this pretty well. The correlation of OPS (compiled by adding a
player’s on base percentage to his slugging percentage) to a
player’s ability to produce runs has been well demonstrated. OPS+
measures a player relative to the OPS league average on a scale based
on 100. A 100 OPS+ in any year is the league average. When
evaluated in terms of OPS+, as will be shown below, Santo stands out.
Another way of evaluating historical context is by using Win Shares.
Here as well Santo stands out.
As will be shown
below, Santo had a much higher level of peak offensive performance
than every major league Hall of Fame third baseman other than
Schmidt, Mathews, Brett, Baker and Boggs. In this analysis, he is
very close to Baker and Boggs, however, closer to them than the third
basemen below him are to him. His career numbers stack up solidly in
the middle of all major league Hall of Fame third basemen as well.
Career
Statistics
Here are the
career offensive statistics for the ten major league Hall of Fame
third basemen (with Santo included) ranked by career OPS+:
|
R |
H |
2B |
3B |
HR |
RBI |
BA |
OBP |
SLG |
OPS+ |
Schmidt[1972-1989] |
1506 |
2234 |
408 |
59 |
548 |
1595 |
.267 |
.380 |
.527 |
147 |
Mathews[1952-1968] |
1509 |
2315 |
354 |
72 |
512 |
1453 |
.271 |
.376 |
.509 |
143 |
Brett[1973-1993] |
1583 |
3154 |
665 |
137 |
317 |
1595 |
.305 |
.369 |
.487 |
135 |
|
887 |
1838 |
315 |
103 |
96 |
987 |
.307 |
.363 |
.442 |
135 |
Boggs[1982-1999] |
1513 |
3010 |
578 |
61 |
118 |
1014 |
.328 |
.415 |
.443 |
130 |
Santo[1960-1974] |
1138 |
2254 |
365 |
67 |
342 |
1331 |
.277 |
.362 |
.464 |
125 |
Collins[1895-1908] |
1055 |
1999 |
352 |
116 |
65 |
983 |
.294 |
.343 |
.409 |
113 |
Kell[1943-1957] |
881 |
2054 |
385 |
50 |
78 |
870 |
.306 |
.367 |
.414 |
111 |
Lindstrom[1924-1936] |
895 |
1747 |
301 |
81 |
103 |
779 |
.311 |
.351 |
.449 |
110 |
Traynor[1920-1937] |
1183 |
2416 |
371 |
164 |
58 |
1273 |
.320 |
.362 |
.435 |
107 |
Robinson[1955-1977] |
1232 |
2848 |
482 |
68 |
268 |
1357 |
.267 |
.322 |
.401 |
104 |
Santo is behind
only Schmidt and Mathews in career home runs. He ranks behind
Schmidt, Mathews, Brett and Robinson in career RBI, but Brett and
Robinson each had nearly 2,000 more career at bats than Santo.
Peak
Value
Santo put up
more big years, relative to his contemporaries, than did Robinson,
Collins, Kell, Lindstrom or Traynor. What follows is an evaluation
of how Santo and the ten current major league third basemen in the
Hall of Fame performed offensively when compared to their
contemporaries, using the OPS+ statistic on a season-by-season basis.
Here are the ten
major league Hall of Fame third basemen (with Santo included) listing
number of seasons with an OPS+ over 110, 130 and 150 (or 10%, 30% and
50% better than league average):
|
Seasons Over 110 |
Seasons Over 130 |
Seasons Over 150 |
Schmidt |
15 |
13 |
10 |
Mathews |
15 |
10 |
7 |
Brett |
16 |
12 |
4 |
Boggs |
11 |
8 |
4 |
Santo |
11 |
6 |
3 |
Baker |
9 |
6 |
3 |
Collins |
9 |
2 |
0 |
Lindstrom |
5 |
2 |
0 |
Robinson |
8 |
1 |
0 |
Kell |
8 |
1 |
0 |
Traynor |
6 |
0 |
0 |
As this table
shows, Santo had more big years, relative to his contemporaries, than
did Lindstrom, Collins, Traynor, Robinson or Kell. From 1964 though
1967, Santo’s numbers stacked up favorably with the very best
offensive players in the National League; at the same time he was
winning Gold Gloves at a key defensive position. During the ’60s,
Santo was third in the entire National League in RBI, with 937; the
only players with more were Aaron and Mays (Frank Robinson had more
as well, but he was traded to the AL after the 1965 season). Santo
was a dominant offensive player for a sustained period, something
that cannot be said of Lindstrom, Collins, Traynor, Robinson or Kell.
Robinson had one year when he performed at such a level (1964).
Kell, Traynor
and Lindstrom were similar players offensively: despite high batting
averages, none of them had much power and none of them walked very
much. Santo’s power and plate discipline give him a clear edge
over these three players.
The Bill James
Win Shares analysis supports the conclusion that Santo was a dominant
force in the ’60s, having at least 30 win shares in 4 consecutive
years (1964-1967). According to James, a 30 win share season is “in
general, an MVP-candidate season.” (2001 Historical Baseball
Abstract, p. 335). Santo never won an MVP, but a reasonable
argument can be made that he was the best player in his league in
several years, particularly in 1964 and 1966. Neither Traynor nor
Kell ever had a 30 win share season. Robinson, Collins and Lindstrom
each had one.
References
1
Bill James has written several times on Santo’s merits for Hall of
Fame induction. See James, The Politics of Glory: How
Baseball’s Hall of Fame Really Works, Macmillan (1994) at
343-44; James, 2001 Historical Baseball Abstract, Free Press
(2001) at 541-42. For another piece supporting Santo, see
http://espn.go.com/mlb/columns/neyer_rob/1514118.html.
2
See list at
http://www.baseballhalloffame.org/hofers_and_honorees/lists/pos&3B.htm.
There are fewer third basemen in the Hall of Fame than there are
players from any other position, even after giving effect to the
induction of four third basemen in the past ten years (three from the
major leagues and one, Jud Wilson, from the Negro Leagues).
3
Decade stats courtesy of
http://www.baseballimmortals.net/decades/decades.shtml.
4
Klein and O’Doul were teammates on the Phillies in 1930. Their
high batting averages helped the Phillies to a last place finish with
a 52-102 record. The Phillies scored 944 runs (over six runs per
game), but gave up an astronomical 1199 runs (nearly eight runs per
game).
5
For an interesting take on the large strike zone era, see
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/re-imagining-the-big-zone-sixties-part-1-1963-1965/;
and
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/re-imagining-the-big-zone-sixties-part-2-1966-1968/.
Recent comments
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crunch 7 hours 36 min ago (view)
spring training TV is usually fluid...adding and subtracting broadcast games...
first cubs TV (as of now) is March 3 (wednesday) on ESPN at 3pm EST.
radio broadcasts available for almost every game that's not televised. the cubs get going on monday and some other teams will start the day before.
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crunch 1 day 4 hours ago (view)
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Arizona Phil 1 day 20 hours ago (view)
AAA leagues really need to play through the month of September, because with September rosters being limited to 28 instead of 40, players will need to be moved back & forth between MLB and AAA throughout the month of September instead of just through the month of August.
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Mike Wellman 3 days 3 hours ago (view)
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Ervin claimed by Braves. So we lose a potential future (and also current) asset in exchange for one year of a very mediocre Jake Marisnick.
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As a midwest kid now living in Texas, new scheduling is a bummer. Only get a chance to drive and see Cubs once every 3 years with interleague. Really looked forward to those games in Round Rock and the one season in San Antonio. I understand it makes more sense in the big picture, just selfishly disappointed.
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They also gave away Larry Craig bobblefoot dolls as a promotion.
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welcome to the "big time" st paul saints...they built a nice park, the fans showed up, and they go from indies to AAA (with a bit of $ help from the twins for part ownership).
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Mike Wellman 5 days 4 hours ago (view)
Hagsag, the River Bandits made the cut tho, right?
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Craig A. 5 days 5 hours ago (view)
Could have an option year remaining. Bleacher Nation walked it back, per the link above.
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SERIOUSLY!
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It was time.
Comments
Wood and Cubs different stories
Re: Wood and Cubs different stories
Re: Wood and Cubs different stories
Re: The Hall of Fame Case for Ron Santo (Part 1 of 3)
Re: The Hall of Fame Case for Ron Santo (Part 1 of 3)
Re: The Hall of Fame Case for Ron Santo (Part 1 of 3)
Re: The Hall of Fame Case for Ron Santo (Part 1 of 3)
Re: The Hall of Fame Case for Ron Santo (Part 1 of 3)
Re: The Hall of Fame Case for Ron Santo (Part 1 of 3)
Re: The Hall of Fame Case for Ron Santo (Part 1 of 3)
Re: The Hall of Fame Case for Ron Santo (Part 1 of 3)
Re: The Hall of Fame Case for Ron Santo (Part 1 of 3)
Re: The Hall of Fame Case for Ron Santo (Part 1 of 3)
Re: The Hall of Fame Case for Ron Santo (Part 1 of 3)
Re: The Hall of Fame Case for Ron Santo (Part 1 of 3)
Re: The Hall of Fame Case for Ron Santo (Part 1 of 3)
I'm not sure where 1965 got into the conversation or #5 hitters, but wtf?
Ron's job was to drive in 150 runs a year, not to take 100 walks and drive in 98 runs. Bitch and moan about it, but those are the facts. Was it a good idea that his job was defined that way? No. But the context of the coversation is not Hall of WARP3 or Hall of OPS+
when has anyone ever been expected to drive in 150 runs a year?
and Santo batted 4th for most of his career and most of 1965, he finished 8th in RBI's in the NL that year, which was 3rd best on the team.
during his peak of '64 to 70, he finished, 2nd, 8th, 10th, 7th, 2nd, 2nd, 7th in RBI's in the NL. I'm sure there's somewhere on the web that would tell you who had the most RBI's during that period or the 60's and he'd be up near the top of both lists (the entire decade of the 60's might be tough since he only played a half season in 1960).
The biggest problems for Santo making the Hall aren't his stats, it's that he was widely considered the 3rd best player on his team, the 2nd best third basemen of his time and his career was cut short because of diabetes.
Re: The Hall of Fame Case for Ron Santo (Part 1 of 3)
Re: The Hall of Fame Case for Ron Santo (Part 1 of 3)
Re: The Hall of Fame Case for Ron Santo (Part 1 of 3)
Re: The Hall of Fame Case for Ron Santo (Part 1 of 3)
You're making the case worse, not better.
I was just pointing out how you were making up shit.
No. That's 100% wrong.
I'm glad you've deemed my opinion 100% wrong and that you've got a survey from the writers and now Vet Committee that proves those are the reasons.
But I do agree, he wasn't particularly liked by the writers from my understanding. Didn't player, manages and coaches select the ASG during his time? He couldn't have been that disliked by his peers.
I think we all understand your points, many of us disagree, some don't. There's a lot of good reasons for Santo be in the Hall, a few for why he shouldn't. Obviously enough people agree with you at this point, so you got that going for you.
Re: The Hall of Fame Case for Ron Santo (Part 1 of 3)
Re: The Hall of Fame Case for Ron Santo (Part 1 of 3)
Re: The Hall of Fame Case for Ron Santo (Part 1 of 3)
Re: The Hall of Fame Case for Ron Santo (Part 1 of 3)
Re: The Hall of Fame Case for Ron Santo (Part 1 of 3)
Re: The Hall of Fame Case for Ron Santo (Part 1 of 3)