2009 Playoff Predictions

It's the first time in 2 years that the Cubs won't be influencing my bracket. The last and I had the A's winning it all and the Tigers and Cardinals losing in the first round. It's always important to remember when reading my entries that I'm an idiot. If you want, that you can enter, or throw your guesses in the comments. I haven't seen a neat and tidy place with official playoff rosters, so the ex-Cub factor below is a guess at this point and it's possible I missed a Cub connection.

Cardinals vs. Dodgers

The Dodgers started off hot for 2 months and then coasted the last 4 months and their best pitcher had a 5.21 ERA in September (Billingsley). That leaves Randy Wolf as their ace, walk-happy Clayton Kershaw, and now Vicente Padilla(chuckle) getting Game 3.  The Cardinals finished below .500 in Sept/Oct after a ridiculous August, but have the most feared hitter in the game, some decent protection around him for once and a solid bullpen. This series reminds me too much of the Cubs vs. Dodgers last year, except the Cards are the Dodgers this time. 

unoffical ex-Cub Factor: Cards - 1(Mark DeRosa, Wellemeyer may still make roster, don't think Lohse counts), Dodgers - 1 (Juan Pierre, don't think Garland counts)

Dodgers

My Prediction: Cards in 3.

Rockies vs. Phillies

The Rockies were 72-41 since June and have a much better pitching staff than their Coors Field numbers suggest. Ubaldo Jimenez is as good as they get in my opinion, with Aaron Cook and Jason Hammel to follow. Poor Jason Marquis may not even get the Game 4 start, but that's probably best for the Rockies. Rockies were 2nd in the league in home runs and runs scored to the Phillies, so you'd expect some guys crossing the plate early and often, but you never know in 3-5 games what will happen. The Phillies would be wise to shelf Brad Lidge and hand over late innings to Ryan Madson and maybe Brett Myers. Cliff Lee has been beaten up since his first coupe of starts with the Phillies and Cole Hamels seems to be paying for all the innings he threw in their title run last year. I think the Phils will be tough to knock off as defending champs, but the Rockies will prevail. And when in doubt, bet against the ex-Cub factor.

unoffical ex-Cub Factor: Rockies - 1(Marquis), Phillies - 4 (Paul Bako, Matt Stairs, Miguel Cairo, Scott Eyre)

Colorado

My Prediction: Rockies in 5

Red Sox vs. Angels

When the Angels beat the Red Sox in a playoff series, I'll pick them. Until that happens, I'm going with the Red Sox, plus I like their starters and bullpen more.

unoffical ex-Cub Factor: Red Sox - 1(if Gathright makes postseason roster), Angels - 1 (Gary Matthews Jr.)

Boston

My Prediction: Red Sox in 4

Twins vs. Yankees

I could see the Twins taking Game 1 riding the wave of September and last night, but ultimately I can't get behind a team missing Justin Morneau and Kevin Slowey.  The Yanks have easily been the best team in baseball all year, still have Mariano Rivera closing and I think Burnett, Sabathia and Petitte along with a far superior offense than any other team should carry them through the playoffs.

unoffical ex-Cub Factor: Twins- 2(Brendan Harris, Ron Mahay), Yankees - 3 (Chad Gaudin, Jose Molina, Jerry Hairston Jr....Eric Hinske doesn't count I believe)

Yankees

My Prediction: Yankees in 3

LCS

Cardinals over Rockies in 6, Yankees over Red Sox in 5

Rockies and Yankees

World Series

Yankees over Cardinals in 6

Yankees

Comments

Cards in 4 Phils in 5 RSox in 4 Yanks in 3 Cards in 7 RSox in 6 RSox in 6 Edit: It's also worth noting that the Yankees and Red Sox are facing off not just for this year but for the title of team of the decade. Whoever has the better October can probably rightfully claim that title. If both were to bow out in the first round, I'd give the slight edge to Boston for the titles.

NYY vs. BOS payroll * 2009: $201,449,189 * 2009: $121,745,999 * 2008: $209,081,577 * 2008: $133,390,035 * 2007: $189,639,045 * 2007: $143,026,214 * 2006: $194,663,079 * 2006: $120,099,824 * 2005: $208,306,817 * 2005: $123,505,125 * 2004: $184,193,950 * 2004: $127,298,500 * 2003: $152,749,814 * 2003: $ 99,946,500 * 2002: $125,928,583 * 2002: $108,366,060 * 2001: $112,287,143 * 2001: $110,035,883 * 2000: $107,588,459 * 2000: $ 81,200,000 ...and the Cubs...for the hell of it... * 2009: $134,809,000 * 2008: $118,345,833 * 2007: $ 99,670,332 * 2006: $ 94,424,499 * 2005: $ 87,032,933 * 2004: $ 90,560,000 * 2003: $ 79,868,333 * 2002: $ 75,690,833 * 2001: $ 64,715,833 * 2000: $ 62,100,000

Relevance?

"Edit: It's also worth noting that the Yankees and Red Sox are facing off not just for this year but for the title of team of the decade." just pointing out that 1 team in particular spends to win even though they both spend a lot...at most of the points through the decade we're talking 50/70-ish million bucks...enough to field an entire separate team at league average at some points. crazy stuff... the cubs payroll i threw in for the hell of it...a comparison point that's related to something we're more familiar with.

Well, they do have more pennants than anyone else this decade to show for it. (Red Sox and Cardinals have a chance to tie.) Something to be said for that. Cubs spent a lot of money this decade and couldn't even buy one.

National League Cards vs Dodgers -- Cards in 4 Rockies vs Phillies -- Phillies in 5 Cards vs Phillies -- Cards in 6 American League Red Sox vs Angels -- Red Sox in 4 Twins vs Yankees -- Yankees in 4 Red Sox vs Yankees -- Yankees in 6 World Series Cards vs Yankees -- Yankees in 6 Caveat -- Best-of-five series are a crap shoot.

National League STL v LAD... LAD in 5 COL v PHI... PHI in 4 PHI in 7 American League BOS v LAA... BOS in 4 MIN v NYY... NYY in 4 BOS in 6 World Series PHI v BOS... BOS in 7

good start for me, Phils win Game 1...5-1.

Twins who beat the Angels over Cards who beat the Phillies.

I could be wrong.

6-2 in the 5th...

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  • Cubster 39 min 27 sec ago (view)

    high fives followed by Rizzo passing out hand sanitizer

    elbow bumps

    how do you socially distance the dogpile?

     

  • crunch 15 hours 14 min ago (view)

    cubs in 11!

    7-2 record to start the year.

    the "socially distanced high-5s" in the middle of the infield is good stuff.

     

  • crunch 15 hours 51 min ago (view)

    schwarber/contreras...woo!

    been a while since i've seen a solid home plate collision...couldn't be avoided.

     

  • crunch 16 hours 6 min ago (view)

    game on...stupid rain delay...

     

  • Charlie 16 hours 56 min ago (view)

    Any other readers in southern Il.--are you blacked out of Cubs games? My dad is always blacked out as of this year even though MLB tv lists his zip as blacked out for Cards only.

     

  • Sonicwind75 17 hours 28 min ago (view)

    When then is ever over, gonna have to have some of them Magic City wings, they must be something!

     

  • Cubster 17 hours 44 min ago (view)

    For all the heat Lester took to this point, he's really "pitched" excellent in both starts. In fact, the entire starting staff has been really good. Bullpen not so much although I've liked Jeffress.

     

  • crunch 17 hours 55 min ago (view)

    cepedes is "opting out" of 2020, but didn't let the team properly know.  glad they found him.

     

  • Eric S 18 hours 8 min ago (view)

    60 game schedules are a perfect fit for Lester. Hell, if we know 2021 will also go 60, Cubs could do a lot worse than re-signing Big Jon

     

  • crunch 18 hours 8 min ago (view)

    we're 10-ish games in and the future is looking dim for finishing the season, much less forming a 16-team post-season.

    at this point it seems making it to playoffs with enough people to fill a roster is a wiser move than actually winning games.

     

  • Eric S 18 hours 11 min ago (view)

    Magic City wings could be in play here. 

     

  • Eric S 18 hours 14 min ago (view)

    👏👏👏

    Well done, Dr Cubster

     

  • Cubster 18 hours 16 min ago (view)

    more on Cardinals...

    Jeff Passan says: The latest round of coronavirus tests from the St. Louis Cardinals are, in the words of someone with the team, "not good." There are expected to be multiple new positives, sources tell ESPN. Cardinals took more tests this morning, and results of those should arrive by tonight.

    Robt Murray: The St. Louis Cardinals have multiple new positive tests, according to sources with direct knowledge.

     

  • crunch 18 hours 27 min ago (view)

    ...and no one seems to know where y.cespedes (NYM) is...didn't show up for the game today and isn't answering calls.  they're on the road @ATL.

     

  • Cubster 18 hours 32 min ago (view)

    Telecast with Len/JD saying that several more Cardinals tested positive this am. Can't find it on twitter or net yet.

    Another Pirate pitcher removed with injury. 

    KB in Covid protocol even though he had a negative rapid test today.

    This is stressful. 

     

  • crunch 18 hours 44 min ago (view)

    contreras breaks up the no-hitter with a double in the 5th.

    lester needs to throw a complete game today.