Game Preview: The Hapless Cubs vs. The Surging Giants

The things you miss not caring about this team...

The Little Cajun That Could yesterday for speedy center fielder . The are ...beyond his speed.

In terms of pitch selection, Crawford is not afraid to work deep counts. However, I’d attribute this more to laying off all offspeed offerings to hide a weakness and not good pitch selection. Crawford looks for the first decent fastball middle-in and tries to yank it down the line. When he’s forced to fight off pitches with two strikes, I’ve seen curveballs make him look silly in the box.

Considering it was a waiver wire deal, you can't expect much to receive much for Mike Fontenot anyway. Darwin Barney has been called up to take Fontenot's spot on the roster.

Geovany Soto went to the disabled list and Derrek Lee is tending to his grandfather, paving the way for Micah Hoffpauir and Welington Castillo to get called up.

All of this was news to me this morning.

The Cubs are currently the proud owners of the 7th spot in the draft and just 2.5 games from the 4th spot, with a little work I think they could even manage to catch the Mariners for the third spot.

As for today's game, the power hitting, but OBP challenged Colvin is leading off, it's like those two two plus years of Soriano in the leadoff spot never happened:  lf colvin, ss castro, rf fuke, cf byrd, 1b nady, 2b dewitt, 3b baker, c hill, p wells

One last piece of fun, this year via Baseball Prospectus. It really should be the go-to stat when folks talk about driving in runners. If I ever accomplish anything with this blog, it will be making this stat more widely accepted and known. The best in the league will be in the low 20's and anything in the 15-17% range is acceptable to good and just like BABIP or many of the rate stats out there, it does fluxuate widely from year to year, but the power hitters who can put the ball in play will tend to be more consistent from year-to-year. For comparison,

Castro
16.3%
Soto
16%
 Soriano 15.7%
 Ramirez 15.3%
 Lee 14.3%
Byrd
13.9%
Fukudome
13.4%
 Nady 12.9%
Colvin
12.0%
Theriot
10.4%
Baker 9.6%

The real treat here is that Soto has batted 7th or 8th most of the year, while being the best Cubs run producer. I know, nothing ground-breaking in terms of information, but still fascinatingly inept to witness.

Comments

Do the Cubs realize that Evan Crawford is neither Evan Longoria nor Carl Crawford?

i think the greatest benefit from the trade...unless the cubs are f'n sly...is saving a few 100K and having a chance at a 4th OFr if he progresses his game.

"The real treat here is that Soto has batted 7th or 8th most of the year, while being the best Cubs run producer." when it comes to RBIs it helps when the batters in front of him can hit...unlike what the 5/6 hitters got from the 3/4 slot most of the year.

it helps if they can get on-base.... but when it comes to RBI's, it's a matter of opportunities and then driving them in, the table in the post lays it our as clearly as can be. There's nothing ambiguous here. That being said, a 2 percentage point difference isn't huge or anything, but given Soto's OBP/SLG and OBI% numbers, just a gross waste of resources this year.

If Soto maintained his pace of driving in runs, and had the same number of opportunities that Lee had, he would have 9 more RBI's. A couple of other nuances that OBI% doesn't look at is intentional walks (and pitch arounds) and the number of outs that a batter has when he comes to the plate. I would think it's much better to be a 3rd and 4th hitter than a 5th hitter when driving in runners on third base.

That doesn't impact OBI%, which is Rob's point.

it's just an aside...he actually had people in front of him getting on base he could smack in and lingered in the 7/8 slot. it was/is fun fun stuff.

Wonder how many RBI's our lead off hitter might have from another spot in the batting order. He's 10th in the majors in home run frequency with 1 HR every 15.27 AB

yeah, he's not a 1/2 hitter f'sure. that said, i think (no proof) he's hitting up front with castro in order for them to get maximum ABs to be polished for 2011. it's not uncommon to do this, anyway.

Yeah, I don't care where he's hitting because a) I want them to lose games and b) I want the kids to get experience. Bear in mind, Lou is managing. I doubt he's paying enough attention to think about AB's for rookies. His own reason is "what're ya gonna do?"

i'm cutting him slack on this one because he's putting both guys up top. why colvin is batting in front of castro most of the time is the only odd part to me. neither are gonna take walks i guess. colvin with 9bb batting 1/2 over 150ab castro with 2bb batting 1/2 over 143ab (most all in #2 slot)

that said, i think (no proof) he's hitting up front with castro in order for them to get maximum ABs to be polished for 2011. it's not uncommon to do this, anyway. it is in the majors and if they wanted maximum Ab's for him, they wouldn't have sat him the last few days cause he was struggling. he's there out of laziness and some vague "necessity" they keep harping on...

it's in the majors but the cubs are out of it as hell and then some. i don't pretend to understand the dynamics of a lou lineup, though. he's not as predictable as some managers year to year...like his pen management it can be kinda skitzo.

From Bruce Miles: "He’s (Colvin) in the leadoff spot out of necessity, and it’s a challenge for the kid. In talking with some Cubs people last weekend, they can see him in the fifth spot next year." http://blogs.dailyherald.com/node/4503

Sandoval "The Fat" just got a triple. That always makes me think of the cake animated gif. I love Pablo.

Was there an earthquake in SF?

555. Reminds me of Z barreling around the bases in spring training.

Wow, the Fat is having a day.

Mike Fontenot 17.3% Castro 16.3% Soto 16% Soriano 15.7% Ramirez15.3% Lee 14.3% Byrd 13.9% Fukudome 13.4% Nady 12.9% Colvin 12.0% Theriot 10.4% Baker 9.6%

I meant to do 200 PA's, but then I decided on 150 and forgot to put Fontenot back in. thanks.

holy crap castro...dont set up on the side or back of the bag...again...when trying to make a SB play.

As a Cubs fan, it's kind of fun to watch Burrell and Huff chase fly balls. If I were a Giants fan I would be suffering daily heart attacks.

well now...3-7...awesome. go cubs.

Aw, look. They're trying to win a game. Ain't that cute?

i could go for a nice 15-20 inning time waster. 6-7 now.

...and we have tie.

theriot lite getting his debut at 2nd in the bottom 9th.

well that sucked.

Castro is good, the Cubs are awful.

I think they can stop putting Cashner in the Cubs "3 top rookies to build around" talk for now. His control is poor and he's very hittable right now (when he does get the ball over the plate).

burn him. burn him like the witch he is... high walk rate, mediocre K rate at the moment, probably could use some more minor league seasoning imo.

I think he could use regular work, his control has just gotten worse and worse since he got called up.

Treat him like the Cubs treat Szmarj. Rush him along because you have a lot of money tied up in him. He's a starter. No, he's a reliever. Promote him before he's earned the promotion. No, he's a starter. Send hime back down. Maybe he's a reliever. Promomte him when he gets couple guys out. That didn't work. Make a starter out of him again. Send him down. Jerk him around until he doesn't know what in hell is happening.

I thought you were talking about the Bears for a moment. Hahaha. That's how they treat half their roster.

Unfortunately the Cubs do the same thing with any good prospect hitters. As soon as they reach AA, start the shuttle back and forth to Wrigley. At least until the kid is out of options. Then trade em for PTBNL's or weak prospects.

I really don't see much difference between minor league Cashner and Cubs Cashner. Overall he's been a 7K/9--5BB/9 pitcher on the farm. So far he's doing 6/6 with the Cubs. He's got one pitch, working on a second. This is Samardzija junior. Not ready for prime time.

overall he's been a 7.8 K/9 (most educated folks round that up to 8) and a 4.1 BB/9 minor league pitchers (most folks round that to 4). fastball seems straight more than anything as well as not located well and at least fangraphs pitch value seems to support that...if I'm reading that right. the folks I trust around here seem to think it's more a lack of not using his changeup much so they don't sit on his fastball rather than a lack of a slider.

You trust people around here?

Rob left me TCR in his will.

Because he hates you.

Ha! Sounds right.

anybody think Marquis Smith has mlb potential or upside, he has gotten his average over .300 at Iowa

I was hoping he'd do well this year, but when AramRam went down he was hitting like .215. His potential seems to be a second division starter, but we never thought Casey McGhee was going to go even that far.

I saw him in one game against Round Rock and he actually looks like a real good hitter to me. Unfortunately, he also looked like a pretty hapless third baseman. Maybe it was just a bad game, though -- you can't put too much in one game, but he really looked bad in a couple of routine plays. EDIT: The same should be said of course about the hitting. Showed some good power though and I think he knocked one out that day.

Funny, because his rep is that he's a really good defensive third basemen who may never have the bat. I envisioned him as maybe a Terry Pendleton type if he put it all together.

.935 fielding percentage at third this year, .939 career. I agree with you about his rep, or at least I remember reading that he was a sponge at third. Wet sponge or dry, I guess is the question.

After watching him that September with the Cubs I thought he played well enough to be considered a decent utility guy, since he could play several positions. I didn't expect him to become a solid everyday player at any position. But it was still a bonehead move to put him on waivers.

tonite fuku-rf castro-ss lee-1b byrd-cf dewitt-3rd sori barney-2nd hill-c

Is it bad that I am wishing for more of Lee's relatives to pass away? Barney gets a start, that's cool.

In the last week, the offense has gotten to Carpenter, Cain, Zito and Lincecum - not too shabby.

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  • Dolorous Jon Lester 1 hour 43 min ago (view)

    I believe this is the correct take. It's surprising that Len is leaving. He's good, but he had gotten a little too rationalizey over the past few years for me.

    However, it seemed he was heavily invested in the Cubs. His departure feels like there is some Ricketts-ish bullshit going on behind the scenes at Marquee that Len wants no part of. Anyway, I wish him well with the other Chicago team

     

  • crunch 2 hours 20 min ago (view)

    wtf...

    is everything the ricketts touch just falling to shit in 2021?  ....well, except their heavy investments in taking over the state of Nebraska politically with one of the sons and heavy investment in supportive state legislators...

     

  • Dolorous Jon Lester 3 hours 50 min ago (view)

    This makes a whole lot of sense. Thanks Phil!

    (And that HR off Hader was unforgettable)

     

  • Hagsag 6 hours 14 min ago (view)

    Shocker!

     

  • Wrigley Rat 11 hours 42 min ago (view)

    Len Kasper is leaving the Cubs for the White Sox radio booth.

    https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&so...

     

  • Charlie 15 hours 58 min ago (view)

    I would be happy to see the Cubs no longer spend DH time on Victor Caratini. Provided there's a Kyle Schwarber or better alternative, of course.

     

  • Arizona Phil 1 day 1 min ago (view)

    DJL: I don't think Ildemaro Vargas being out of minor league options is much of a concern to the Cubs because as things stand right now he projects as the team's primary utility infielder in 2021. He can play all four INF positions (1B, 2B, 3B, and SS, plus corner OF, too), and he is switch hitter with some pop, especially from the right side (remember the 9th inning HR he hit off Josh Hader in September?). 

     

  • Dolorous Jon Lester 1 day 44 min ago (view)

    I'm a little surprised Ildemaro Vargas was tendered, given that he's out of options. He has value and isn't expensive as he is pre-arb this year, but still a bit surprised. Have to think he's got an inside track to an Opening Day spot at this point

     

  • waveland 1 day 9 hours ago (view)

    really appreciate the years and years of your updates

     

  • Arizona Phil 1 day 11 hours ago (view)

    BRADSBEARD: Strumpf was wearing a cast on his hand in Minor League Camp before everything got shut-down in March so his not being at South Bend might have had something to do with that. I don't know why Rivas wasn't at the ATS. 

     

  • bradsbeard 1 day 12 hours ago (view)

    Do you have any idea why Rivas and Strumpf weren't at the alternate site in South Bend? I thought Rivas especially showed enough in ST games to be viewed as a legitimate depth option, especially with the DH. 

     

  • Arizona Phil 1 day 12 hours ago (view)

    Alfonso Rivas reminds me a bit of Rafael Palmeiro when Palmeiro first came up to the big leagues and was a "doubles machine" (before he started hitting home runs).   

    Rivas played D-1 baseball at the University of Arizona, so (just like Nico Hoerner, who also played in the PAC-12) I don't think he needs a lot of additional time at AAA before he's ready for MLB. He's a very advanced hitter, as long as you are OK with lots of doubles & lots of walks but not many HR.   

     

  • Dolorous Jon Lester 1 day 13 hours ago (view)

    I hadn't thought of that but I really like that option

     

  • bradsbeard 1 day 13 hours ago (view)

    I really hope Rivas has a chance at the LF job. Would ease some of the sting of Schwarber being cut loose. 

     

  • Arizona Phil 1 day 13 hours ago (view)

    CRUNCH: I got the impression that Ross had seen enough of Schwarber in LF, so implementing the universal DH may be necessary before Schwarber returns to the Cubs in 2021. I think the Cubs would be fine with Schwarber as their main DH going forward. 

    BTW, I strongly suspect that the universal DH will be included in the next CBA, but whether there will be a DH in the National League in 2021 is still TBA (which is really stupid, since clubs need to know right now for sure one way or the other whether or not there will be a DH in the N. L. in 2021). 

     

  • Arizona Phil 1 day 14 hours ago (view)

    Besides the guys on the 40, Cubs 2021 NRI relievers with a legit chance to win a bullpen slot in Spring Training include LHRPs Josh Osich and Rex Brothers, and RHRPs Jake Jewell, Trevor Megill, Dakota Mekkes, Michael Rucker, and Joe Wieland (presuming they are not taken in the Rule 5 Draft). 

    Brothers and Wieland are out of minor league options, however, so if added to the 40 they could not ride the "Chicago - Des Moines Shuttle" like the others could.