How many Wins If This Was The Cubs '11 Team?

I have no clue who the Cubs are going to get this offseason. I do think they'll try and move Fukudome and maybe Silva (good luck on both counts). Since the Cubs aren't going into the Cliff Lee sweepstakes, the only pitcher I find remotely interesting would be Javier Vazquez, but by no means is he a certainty to land with the team.  But here's a possible 2011 Cubs team, how many wins do you think they'd be worth? (remembering they won 75 last year and their expected win-loss was 73 wins).

C - Soto, Backup C (Varitek, Hill, Castillo, Blanco, Chirinos, etc)

1B - Carlos Pena (Berkman, LaRoche, N. Johnson also possibilities)

2B - Dewitt/Baker

SS - Castro

3B - Ramirez

LF - Soriano

CF - Byrd

RF - Colvin

Bench: Backup C, Dewitt or Baker, Barney, Vet Pinch-Hitter (Stairs, Hinske, etc), Utility Outfielder likely right-handed to spell Colvin (Guyer, R. Johnson, Fuld, etc).

SP - Zambrano, Dempster, J. Vazquez, Wells, Gorzelanny, Silva (someone goes to the pen or minors or is traded of course)

RP - Marmol, Marshall, Grab-Ass, D. Wheeler and fill out the pen with 3 of: Cashner, Samardzija, Caridad, Dolis, J. Jackson, Maine, Gaub, Coleman, Russell, Berg, etc

No one quite knows who exactly the Cubs will sign and acquire via trade, but a left-handed power hitting 1b-men, a veteran starter and a veteran right-handed reliever are on the agenda and Pena, Vazquez and Wheeler would fit those roles. I'm sure a lot of Cubs folks would like to see Kerry Wood join the team, but I'm guessing he'll find a closer role somewhere or at least a a chance to compete for the role that he wouldn't get in Chicago.

I'd put that team at 80 wins unless Z and Vazquez find the fountain of youth and stability.



I think Vazquez will probably cost a lot more than the fans of 23 baseall teams are expecting him to. Please to hear the Cubs are in on the Lee sweepstakes, though. I guess that team is a 75-85 win team, with a normal amount of injuries.

unanimously awesome...

it's of virtually no consequence either way, but can baker please not be on the team anymore?

sure, but Quade seem to take to his hitting vs. lefties. Don't see him going anywhere.

Doesn't Marquez Smith have a chance at Baker's job?

i would say the everyday eight stack up favorably w/ the reigning world series champs...after we break from the gate @ 24-13, we can focus on getting the pitching lined up for the playoffs...

maybe Cain and Lincecum will become available?

berkman is such a dead zone vs. lefties with "meh" D at 1st. i dunno if he'll get a shot with a NL team...i hope the cubs stay away from pena.

i don't like guys that wear shades when they hit; especially if they don't hit...

Angles apparently interested in Adrien Beltre quite a bit, and some article speculates that means Wood, Kendrick and/or Callapso could be available. Wouldn't mind a run at Kendrick, should turn a few doubles into HR's at Wrigley.

65-70 wins, play al east next year also. Real bad

With Hendry's pal Towers in charge of Arizona, will Cubs make a run at S. Drew or J. Upton? probably not and I wish are the correct answers. :) would be refreshing if he just said he was being a homer and insuring future access to players.

to Marlins for around 3/16M...
"As I look back and see everybody involved in the interview process, I think the most games anybody saw me manage was 4-5 games, by everybody that I talked to.

i call bullshit on that one unless he wanted hendry and rickets there in person or something. he knows better, too.

They might have gone in person, but they had to tear up their PCL playoff tickets. get the unions on your side, get your money. claims Cubs have withdrawn state bond request maybe Ricketts found a Cubbie head in his bed last night? -edit- some IL politician came out and said the plan has been scrapped, but Ricketts just had his press conference this morning, so not sure what that's about.

some IL politician Heh. That "some IL politician" is the speaker of the House, Michael Madigan, who most consider the most powerful person in Illinois government. Nothing happens in IL government without Madigan's approval.

not my circle, but Quinn plenty pissed that he was ignored, which was cute.

Ricketts should just move the team to Arizona and play in the new stadium he screwed those taxpayers into paying for. If you haven't guessed it, I'm completely against public funding for any sports team, period. I don't want to hear the argument about how much money a team brings into an area or jobs created. These are billionaire owners getting a free ride, that's all it is. I say Skull Fuck 'em all.

10000000000000000% agreed

it's an easy sell to create so much work for them, but... "hundreds more permanent jobs" =p i'd like to see that list and how broadly it's defined.

I assume most of the permanent jobs would be tied into the triangle building and whatever it intends to house. I think there was a hotel at one point, but not sure if that's part of this proposal.

yeah, i dunno what outside buildings are involved or what their scope of "around the neighborhood" is.

I thought the hotel was part of a private development across Addison.

Financially, a few hundred jobs isn't worth $300 million up front.

it's easy to sell to the unions, i mean. for the most part as long as there's work available they're for the project.

J. Bartlett could be available according to Crasnick, if Cubs want to move Castro over sooner rather than later. random mention of Nats and Cubs being interested in Pena looks like they want to see if they can put clubhouse below outfield in left field.

wow...below field construction...they really do want to keep wrigley alive for quite a while.

And I'm sure the citizens of Illinois will be on the hook to pay for that B.S., too. Fuck Ricketts. Next year's team looks like 77 wins. And why on earth anyone would go after a POS 1b who hit under .200 last year is beyond me. I don't care if he hits the occasional HR, he can't hit the ball regularly, period. Sign Laroche and be done with it.

I'll add that there's not a single thing Tom Rickett's has said so far that's been true. He's a liar and just another tight-assed owner. What's that, country in a recession? I just spent almost a billion dollars to buy a team, hey, let's have the public pay to renovate it. The kicker is how he claims the money won't be taken away from somewhere else. What a fucking lying piece of shit. Yes, a tiny amount of that money comes from taxing Cubs tickets, but what do you think the state/city does with it, pile it in a corner and roll around on it while fisting guinea pigs? No, it goes to pay for other things, which will suddenly have a $200-300 million shortage if Ricketts gets his way (and the rest of that money gets filled in with what?). What a douche. He should sell the team to Saudi Arabia and get out of Chicago. I'm already sick of his lies.

The Cubs are whining that they need a larger clubhouse to field a winning team. Gee, first they needed lights to field a winning team, then it was more night games, then it was getting rid of Michael Barrett, then it was having a level playing field, getting rid of MB, and the list goes on and on. It's amazing how much complaining they do about millionaires not being as comfortable as possible during the 2 hours or so a day they spend in a clubhouse. It sure is fun to hear all this shit when everyone I know is either out of work or has taken a major pay/benefit cut and are struggling not to become homeless, but hey, let's make sure the millionaires are as comfortable as possible.

Cubs math: "it will generate 1000's of jobs" (while taking away 1000's from another sector).

You forgot the Left Handed batting practice pitcher excuse.

this sounds amazingly credible... =p "According to Ken Rosenthal of, the Marlins are discussing a trade that would sent Dan Uggla to the Braves for infielder Omar Infante and left-hander Mike Dunn."

Mike Dunn better be really fucking good.

Thank you!! That's what I said!! Talking to a random Braves fan this morning, he says, Oh, Infante and I said BS, your team just did a hell of a job capitalizing on a fluke year is what they did, well done... (that said, isn't Uggla due to make $12m or so in arb? Maybe ATL gets him signed longer...?)

Crasnick says deal is done. Likely 3b or LF depending on the Chipper situation.


signs with Cardinals, 2 years with 2013 mutual option.

Why Baker. He is the perfect platoon partner. Can't hit righties. Absolutely kills lefties. Can sub at multiple positions. He is the last bench player they should let go.

they will go 6-0 vs white sox, lose everything else. thus making season a resounding success.

that checks

then it was getting rid of Michael Barrett, --- don't underestimate the importance wrt the need to blame someone for a century of fucking up.

These are billionaire owners getting a free ride, that's all it is. --- Even billionaires like free stuff (don't we all).

ADAM FUCKING DUNN MOTHERFUCKER!!! some tweet or twit or twat or blurb that WSox talked with his agent and the "starting point" is 3/40 for him, which is acceptable on my scale of what is acceptable for a guy that teams will want to trade in 2 years. We'll see where it ends up...

Jim Hendry will negotiate Dunn's 3/40 request into 5/100 in no time. I predict Adam Dunn signs with the Cubs for.........3/44!!!!!!!!!

news out of Baltimore...a former cub leaves the O's for the Cubs? Can Brian Roberts be far behind? Scott Moore returns. meh. and Chad Tracy is now a Hiroshima Carp

I like Scott Moore as a bench player on the 2011 Cubs. Can play all 4 infield positions. Decent hitter, and brings Left-Handedness.

might I inquest on what qualifies Scott Moore as a "decent hitter"? and I don't think there's anyone on this planet besides maybe him and his Mom that thinks he can play all 4 infield positions.

He's played 3 at the MLB level. He was drafted as a SS. He can play all 4 spots in a Mike Fontenot can play all 4 spots way. Not starting material by any stretch. But a decent gloved high 700's OPSing infielder. I'd feel better about him in that role than a Marquez Smith in 2011. At least as an option.

Manny Ramirez was drafted as a shortstop, let's sign him and push Castro to 2nd for 2011.

Woah woah woah. Then where's Fukudome going to play.

Futility infielder.

This is all hilarious. We just had our first kid (hooray!), so I'm behind on both college and TCR. On a side note, for utility, am I the only one who misses (just a little) Ramon Martinez??

Miss him? Hell, I hardly remember him.

Scott Moore is back. Wow, the Ricketts really ARE serious about winning the pennant.

Prices seem to be heading up again this winter. Joaquin Benoit gets 3/16.5 plus incentives

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  • crunch 1 min 8 sec ago (view)

    Yeah, I've made myself familiar with a lot of the changes, but AZP's posts have both added more information and cleared up stuff I didn't fully grasp.  I appreciate the hell out of it.  Thanks Phil, thanks TCR.


  • bradsbeard 1 hour 43 min ago (view)

    Looks like Savant has his breaking pitch classified as a curve while Fangraphs calls it a slider. Suppose by ST he could have made everything over in the pitching lab, so who knows!


  • Arizona Phil 2 hours 4 sec ago (view)

    Again, none of these rules (including the one that requires a pitcher to face a minimum of three batters or else record the final out of the inning) have been officially approved.  

    I think one possible caveat that might be added to the three-batter minimum rule would be that the pitcher can be replaced prior to facing three batters or recording the final out of the inning if the other team puts up a pinch-hitter. 


  • Arizona Phil 2 hours 4 min ago (view)

    Ptchers would also be treated differently under the new rules as far as the Injured list and Optional Assignment to the minors is concerned, with pitchers having to spend at least 15 days (up from 10 days) on the Injured List before being eligible to be reinstated and at least 15 days (up from 10 days) on Optional Assignment before being eligible to be recalled (inless the pitcher is being recalled to replace a pitcher on the 26-man roster who has been placed on an MLB inactive list).  


  • Arizona Phil 2 hours 4 min ago (view)

    SONICWIND: As the rule is proposed, prior to the start of each MLB regular season a club must designate all players on its Opening Day 26-man roster as either a "pitcher" or a "position player." A maximum of 13 can be designated as pitchers (14 pitchers max when rosters expand from 26 to 28 beginning on 9/1). 

    For players who come up during the season, the club must designate the player as either a pitcher or a position player when the player is placed on the MLB active list roster. 


  • Arizona Phil 2 hours 16 min ago (view)

    BRADSBEARD: Fangraphs shows the CT as his primary pitch in 2018 with the SL & FB (and an occasional CH) as his secondary pitches, with no CV at all. I guess I'll find out for sure in Spring Training. 


  • Sonicwind75 3 hours 33 min ago (view)

    AZ Phil, thank you as always for the detailed information.  How is the "cannot be a pitcher" part of the rule to be enforced?  With a few two way players and the increasing amount of mop up innings being handled by position players it seems like there could be a gray area there.  What is preventing a team from stashing an athletic relief pitcher as a "5th outfielder" that could be a pinch runner and play a passable OF when needed but could also provide them with extra relief pitcher.  Anytime I hear of a new rule I always think of how Bill Billichek would circumvent it t


  • bradsbeard 3 hours 33 min ago (view)

    AZ Phil, looking around Baseball Savant, it looks like Winkler now primarily throws a low 90s cutter, a 4-seamer that he throws a little harder (but is less effective), a curve and a sinker. The slider and change haven't been a major part of his repertoir the last two years. The cutter has been really effective the last two years but it looks like he lost command/effectiveness of his 4-seemer and curve last year For whatever reason  


  • bradsbeard 6 hours 53 min ago (view)

    They just signed this guy:


  • Hagsag 8 hours 10 min ago (view)

    There seems to be a lot of player movement so far. Too bad the Cubs aren't involved.


  • Arizona Phil 1 day 8 min ago (view)

    Beginning in 2019, a club must wait a minimum of seven days before it can place a player who was claimed off Outtright Assignment Waivers during the off-season back onto waivers, so because he was claimed off waivers on Wednesday 11/27, yesterday (Wednesday 12/4) was the first day the Cubs could place LHRP C. D. Pelham back onto Outright Assignment Waivers, and so tomorrow (Friday 12/6) is the first day the Cubs can send Pelham outright to the minors (if he was placed back onto waivers yesterday).


  • Arizona Phil 1 day 20 hours ago (view)

    A Competitive Balance draft slot can be traded only during a period of time starting on December 2nd and extending up until two hours prior to the MLB First-Year Player Draft (MLB Rule 4 Draft), so don't be surpised if these draft picks are traded during the off-season.

    Keep in mind that the slot cannot be traded for cash unless it is a financial adjustment made to offset the salary of one or more of the players involved in the trade.


  • Arizona Phil 1 day 20 hours ago (view)

    The active list roster limit changes scheduled to go in effect in 2020 have not yet been officially approved. Same goes for the three-batter minimum (or else record the third out in the inning) for relief pitchers. 


  • Arizona Phil 1 day 20 hours ago (view)

    And then the active list roster limit will expand from 26 to 28 on September 1st (max 14 pitchers in September). 


  • Arizona Phil 1 day 21 hours ago (view)

    The "26th man" who was added for doubleheaders will now be the "27th man" and he can be a pitcher. 


  • crunch 2 days 2 hours ago (view)

    ATL signs cole hamels 1/18m...a'ite then.

    also, z.wheeler 5/100+ to the phillies.