On Wednesday night, with the bases loaded and the game tied, one out in the bottom of the ninth, Mike Wuertz struck out Pat Burrell swinging. Michael Barrett though allowed the ball to get away, and though he recovered in time to catch Jimmy Rollins in no man's land, marooned between third and home, Barrett then literally threw the game away. What ought to have been a simple inning-ending rundown turned into a catastrophic game-ending score. And that led me to think, just how bad is Barrett's defence? And to what extent does it undermine his rather more quantifiable offensive value?
The common consensus, which is based based largely on just watching the two behind the plate and with which I agree, is that Barrett is at best a mediocre defensive catcher, but that Henry Blanco is a fine defender, one of the best in the game. Perhaps it would be interesting to monitor just how the two have fared so far this year.
There are plenty of complex defensive metrics around that aim to measure defence, but I generally find them just too obscenely obscure, abstract, incalculable, contradictory etcetera. But Catcher ERA, a very simple yet alarmingly crude and therefore flawed statistic, gave me an idea - calculate each pitcher's line throwing to Barrett, and then their line throwing to Blanco, and see what that throws up. And so I did...
Recent comments
crunch 09/26/2023 - 09:15 pm (view)
ATL 1-5 hitters have 30+ homers...1 of those with 40 homers, and another with 53 homers. they have a guy with 21 homers hitting 8th.
good luck cubs. mega-extra good luck wednesday taillon...and wesn + smyly out of the pen.
Childersb3 09/26/2023 - 09:27 am (view)
Padres want to restructure while still competing, yet decrease payroll.
Snell and Hader are FAs.
Soto has one year left on deal.
Our bullpen is in dire need of someone like Hader.
Snell would cost a ton and maybe Steele's presence makes Snell unnecessary, yet you cannot have enough pitching (I'd like Yamamoto)
But, we can put a deal together for Soto. We'd have to pony up the cash to keep him to make the trade worth it long term, but we can make a value deal for the Padres.
Morel, Canario, Mervis, Vazquez, one MiLB SP (Sanders-Arias-Gray-maybe Ferris), and Stroman (or Hendricks)
So, it's a six for one deal.
The issue here is that five of these guys have to be on the Padres 40man roster. That might be too much for them. So maybe BJ Murray instead of Vazquez.
Morel is blocked from a defensive position. So he's our DH. He'd be replaced by Soto.
We'd still keep Alcantara and ONKC to replace Happ and Suzuki eventually.
We'd still need to figure out 3B. Maybe bring back Candelario.
I'd resign Belli for 1B or CF if PCA isn't "ready" in Spring Training.
Wisdom can stay to help Soto with DH spots vs LH arms.
You'd have LH bats at DH, 1B, 3B (switch), LF (switch), CF (PCA or Tauch) with 20 HR pop at DH, 1B, LF and 15 HR pop at 3B and CF. That's pretty solid.
It'll cost too much for the Ricketts to keep Bellinger and Soto but that would be fun to watch.
crunch 09/26/2023 - 09:48 am (view)
missing the playoffs because of an on-paper tiebreaker loss would be peak cubbery.
Hagsag1946 09/26/2023 - 09:10 am (view)
Thanks Phil. I look forward to these reports.
Mike Wellman 09/25/2023 - 09:24 pm (view)
Playoffs essentially start tomorrow for Cubs. Better pack for a week in Milwaukee.
Arizona Phil 09/25/2023 - 09:34 pm (view)
azbobbop: If Stroman does not opt out, the Cubs can trade him without any restrictions.
Stroman will make $21M in 2024 if he does not opt out, and Hendricks will make $16M if the Cubs exercise the club option.
Also, it would cost the Cubs a $1.5M buy-out if they decline the Hendricks club option, so they would only be saving $14.5M by declining the option, not the full $16M.
azbobbop 09/25/2023 - 09:08 pm (view)
Phil, if Stroman opts in, does have any trade protection?
Arizona Phil 09/25/2023 - 09:52 pm (view)
CRUNCH: Unfortunately all of the tie-breakers work against the Cubs in the case of a tie with AZ, MIA, and/or CIN.
Arizona Phil 09/25/2023 - 09:48 pm (view)
CUBSTER: The Cubs are expected to be "in" on Yoshinobu Yamamoto, but so will about a dozen other clubs.
Arizona Phil 09/25/2023 - 09:54 pm (view)
Childersb3: I suspect the Cubs will pick-up the Hendricks $16M 2024 option rather than pay the $1.5M buy-out, and then depending on what else might happen during off-season (Stroman opt-out now not likely, Smyly to the pen permanently, might or might not sign Yamamoto), Hendricks will either be in the Cubs starting rotation on Opening Day, or else he will be traded.
So while I don't think the Cubs will decline the club option, I do think he could be traded if it becomes clear during the course of the off-season and Spring Training that there is no place for him in the 2024 rotation.
With the need for SP being what it is throughout MLB, Hendricks still has value (especially on a one-year contract for reasonable money), whether it be with the Cubs or with another club (presuming he stays healthy, of course).