Predicting the Divisions
Because it's fun to make myself look like a fool by the end of the year...
AL EAST
- New York Yankees
- Tampa Bay Rays
- Boston Red Sox
- Baltimore Orioles
- Toronto Blue Jays
The Yanks, Rays and Red Sox match-up pretty well in my opinion and I could see any of the 3 finishing at the top. All 3 teams have excellent rotations, with the Rays and Red Sox having the defensive advantage over the Yankees. BP is particularly optimistic about the Red Sox offense, but I'm having trouble going along with that projection. The Yanks might be getting older, but too much elite talent on the offensive side of the field for me to pick against them. But per usual, who can stay healthy will probably be the determining factor. Good news for the Cubs is Jason Frasor will still be available in about a month.
AL CENTRAL
- Minnesota Twins
- Cleveland Indians
- Chicago White Sox
- Detroit Tigers
- Kansas City Royals
In this case, I see the top 4 teams as all having legit shots at the division. The Twins managed to win last year with a lot of injuries, so I'm giving them the nod with the optimistic assumption that they'll stay a little healthier and I like the signings of Orlando Hudson and Jim Thome. The loss of Joe Nathan will just mean an opportunity for another reliever to bump their payscale for next season and should be easily absorbed. If Fausto Carmona pitches like he did in spring training and the 2007 season, along with a healthy Grady Sizemore and Travis Hafner, the Indians can stay in the hunt with a bunch of good youngsters. The White Sox have a good rotation, but the offense looks troubling. While I like the pick-up of Max Scherzer over Edwin Jackson, I see a big drop-off for Rick Porcello and Dontrelle Willis and Jeremy Bonderman look like they're done. But a few breaks here or there, health and which youngsters or vets have career years and any of those teams not named the Royals have a good shot.
AL WEST
- Texas Rangers
- Anaheim Angels
- Seattle Mariners
- Oakland Athletics
My least favorite division in baseball because it's such an advantage to have only 3 other teams to battle each year. I do hate picking against the Angels as they always seem to figure it out, even when it doesn't look like a strong team on paper. They did lose Guerrero, Lackey and Figgins and replaced them with Matsui, Pineiro, Wood. They'll need some youngsters to step up their games such as Aybar, Kendrick and Wood, but I'm not sure I can doom them to last place like BP projections have them at. I do like the Rangers a little more, particularly their depth and a good number of major league ready prospects to fill in for injuries and under-performance if that strikes them. The Mariners for all their hoopla, don't have a lot of depth in their rotation after Cliff Lee and King Felix and that offense looks downright pathetic. The A's pitching should be pretty good, but Billy Beane can't seem to find the magic on offense since steroid testing was implemented.
WILD CARD RACE:
- Tampa Bay Rays
- Boston Red Sox
- Cleveland Indians
- Chicago White Sox
- Anaheim Angels
- Seattle Mariners
- Detroit Tigers
I just assume whicever team finishes 2nd in the AL East will once again take the Wild card.
NL EAST
- Philadelphia Phillies
- Florida Marlins
- Atlanta Braves
- New York Mets
- Washington Nationals
The Phillies are the class of the NL, although their starting pitching depth is a bit worrisome as is their bullpen. But they should slug their way to another division title. I think the Marlins, Braves and Mets are kind of bunched together in the second tier with the Nationals trailing the pack, although I do think the Nats break 70 wins this year. I kind of like the Marlins rotation and the depth behind it and they have some youngsters on the offensive side of the ball that could make huge leaps this year. Once again, health and career years (whether up or down) should make the difference between them and the Mets and Braves.
NL CENTRAL
- St. Louis Cardinals
- Chicago Cubs
- Milwaukee Brewers
- Cincinnati Reds
- Houston Astros
- Pittsburgh Pirates
It pains me to pick the Cardinals, but they've been successful before with the formula of a few elite superstars surrounded by mediocrity. In the early part of the decade it was Rolen, Edmonds and Pujols, now it's Holliday, Pujols, Carpenter and Wainwright. Most of the projections have the Cubs around a .500 team and I think they'll be able to achieve the high end of the degree of error which is usually six games. The Brewers do have a good offense, and Randy Wolf and Doug Davis should help their pitching staff a little, but just not enough in my opinion and they don't have any real depth there if injury hits. It'll be a cold day in hell before I trust a Dusty team counting on youth to take them over the top. BP actually has the Astros second right now on their depth chart projections, but we're already seeing injuries to Berkman and Oswalt. I don't think they'll implode, and they always seem to do a little better than I expect, but it's gonna take a lot of good fortune for them to compete this year. The Pirates are still in rebuilding mode but getting ever closer.
NL WEST
- San Francisco Giants
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- Colorado Rockies
- Arizona Diamondbacks
- San Diego Padres
I liked the top 4 teams, although Brandon Webb still seems damaged so I think it's now a 3-horse race. If Manny shows up to try and earn a new contract, I'd probably vault the Dodgers to the #1 spot although their rotation is pretty iffy after Billingsley and Kershaw and little depth to cover any misfortune. I like Jonathan Sanchez to take a big step forward this year for the Giants and just enough offense and defense to carry the Giants to a division title. The Rockies are certainly in the mix as well, but I have a hard time trusting their pitchers can keep it together for two years straight.
WILD CARD
- Chicago Cubs
- Los Angeles Dodgers
- Florida Marlins
- Milwaukee Brewers
- Atlanta Braves
- Colorado Rockies
- New York Mets
- Cincinnati Reds
It's March, I'm optimistic as always.
I have to say, there are only 7 teams that I see that absolutely have no chance this year (A's, Royals, Orioles, Blue Jays, Nationals, Pirates and Padres). I certainly could envision scenarios for any of the other 23 teams to put things together and make playoff runs. There's a lot of hand-wringing about our Cubs and particularly their rotation, but if there's anything Hendry has proven over his tenure is that the Cubs know what they're doing with the rotation. The Cubs ERA by starters over the years.
- 2009 - 3.71 (5th)
- 2008 - 3.75 (1st)
- 2007 - 4.19 (2nd)
- 2006 - 5.19 (15th)
- 2005 - 4.17 (8th)
- 2004 - 3.72 (1st)
- 2003 - 3.69 (2nd)
So if you're expecting catastrophic injuries to Dempster and Zambrano, maybe you should be worried like 2005 and 2006, otherwise they have a really good top four in my opinion and plenty of depth to overcome short-term injuries. The defense and offense are a little more troubling, but at the very least they should be in the race, whether it be the NL Central or the wild card.
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