Cubs Clear Roster Slots in Preparation for Off-Season

PREDICTION: Ricky Renteria will be given a contract extension and pay raise and will be promoted to the position of "Special Assistant to the GM." 

List of 121 players (including Cubs RHP Carlos Villanueva) who were declared MLB Article XX-B free agents this morning:  

link 

These players were automatically removed from their club's 40-man roster at 9 AM (Eastern) today. The club retains exclusive negotiating rights with the player through 11:59 PM (Eastern) Monday night, after which the player is free to sign with any club.

There are 32 additional players (including Cubs LHSP Tsuyoshi Wada and RHRP Kyuji Fujikawa) who could be declared MLB Article XX-B free-agents depending on whether a contract option is exercised or declined prior to the Monday deadline. 

The club has until Monday to decide whether to extend a Qualifying Offer to the Article XX-B FA (so that the club will receive a compensatory draft pick if the player signs a major league contract with another club prior to the next Rule 4 Draft). If a QO is offered, the player then has seven days to decide whether to accept or decline the QO.

To be eligible to receive a Qualifying Offer from his former club, the Article XX-B FA must have spent the entire previous regular season on the MLB Active List (25-man roster) and/or MLB DL or other MLB Inactive List of that club. Players acquired in a trade during the MLB regular season are not eligible to receive a QO. 

A Qualifying Offer must be a one-year guaranteed major league contract with a salary at least equal to the average salary of the 125 highest-paid MLB players in 2014 (which is/was $15.3M). If an Article XX-B accepts a QO, the player must be added back to his club's MLB 40-man roster immediately. 

Also, an Article XX-B FA who signs a 2015 major league contract after the Monday deadline receives an automatic "no trade" right through next June 15th. However, if the Article XX-B FA either re-signs with his former club prior to the Monday deadline or signs a minor league contract at any time with any club, the player does not receive the automatic "no trade" right.    

 

E-MAN: C. J. Edwards will continue to start in AAA and he could still eventually end up being a starter long-term, but I think it's likely that he projects initially as a late-inning reliever, along the lines of somebody like Neil Ramirez or Hector Rondon of the Cubs, or maybe Wade Davis of the Royals. That type of reliever. And then maybe as he matures Edwards could get slotted back into the starting rotation and be another Jake Arrieta, or he could stay in the bullpen and be very valuable there.

Exact same thing with Pierce Johnson. Edwards and Johnson have very similar upsides and both will probably break-in as relievers. They both have similar red flags, too, that being command/control. But when they throw strikes, Edwards and Johnson can be dominators.

Remember, we're not talking about just one or two more Brian Schlitters or Blake Parkers here. Edwards and Johnson have high-quality/high-leverage stuff, and both would probably throw even harder if they know they are pitching only one inning. It certainly helped Neil Ramirez and Justin Grimm. But with better command either Edwards and/or Johnson could be another Jake Arrieta. Or one or both could get traded.  

As far as the pitchers who project as starters, I like Jen-Ho Tseng very much. I haven't seen him throw since Minor League Camp (he skipped Instructs because of an innings limit), but he was the best pitcher at Minor League Camp last March and so it was not a surprise to me that he had the year that he had at Kane County. But Tseng is more like Kyle Hendricks than he is like Edwards or Johnson. Tseng has outstanding command and is more durable (so far) than either Edwards or Johnson and projercts as a classic rotation starter. Whether he'll be a #1 or a #3 or a #5 or 4-A is TBD. 

I saw Carson Sands pitch several times in the AZL and also  at Instructs, and he has the repertoire you look for in a lefty starter. A plus-curve, a change-up he can throw for strikes, ansd a 91-92 MPH fastball with movement that occasionally touches 93. I guess a ceiing projection would be a Madison Bumgarner type, but that is true for a lot of guys after they first sign. But Sands is an outstanding young pitcher (so far).

Trevor Clifton has filthy stuff but he is more like Edwards and Johnson, with command being an issue. I believe Clifton and Sands will be in the starting rotation at Ft. Wayne next season. Jake Stinnett and Jeremy Null will likely be in the FW rotation, too. Stinnett is the classic RH starter with a plus-fastball, curve, and change-up. Null is 6'7 and he throws from a high-angle downward plane. Null's two-seam sinker is very good, but he also has a plus-slider. He's just a two-pitch pitcher right now, however, but if he can develpo a decent change-up he would be a definite MLB starter prospect. James Norwood throws 95-96 with a hard breaking ball, but he looks very raw for a college pitcher. He could  be a "piggy-back" candidate at FW in 2015. LHP Justin Steele is another high-round LHSP from the 2014 draft class, and while he throws a bit harder than Sands, he is not as polished. I think Steele os more likely to be left behind at Extended Spring Training and then be the ace at Eugene.

Josh Conway has finally returned to full-time action after missing most of the last two seasons, first with TJS (before he was drafted, while he was at Coastal Carolina) and then the elbow fracture he sustained after slipping on a muddy mound at Maryvale (Brewers) while pitching at EXST in 2013. Conway has not got his fastball velocity back yet, and he is a slider first and fastball second type, with the change-up being very much a work-in-progress. So if he is just a "two-pitch pitcher" he'll end up in the bullpen (presuming he can get his fastball back to 93-94). Meanwhile he shoukld join Sands, Clifton, Stinnett, and Null in the starting rotation at FW in 2015 to get him more innings.

I am not as impressed with Erick Leal. I have seen him pitch literally dozens of times over the past two seasons (most recently at Instructs), and I have never seen him throw harder than 90 (and that's an outlier). His fastball sits consistemtly at 88-89, and it doesn't have movement. He is a curve-ball first pitcher.who uses the fastball to set-up the curve, but I'm not sure that will get him to MLB. He does not project as a reliever. It's strictly "starter or bust" for Leal, and he could be odd man out (relegated to "piggy-backing") if Sands, Clifton, Stinnett, Null, and Conway are indeed the starters at FW in 2015. 

Tseng, Paul Blackburn, Duane Underwood, Daury Torrez, and Jonathan Martinez (acquired from LAD for Darwin Barney) will probably be the starters at Myrtle Beach, although LHP Tyler Ihrig was best pitcher at EXST this past season and did a nice job at Boise and KC. Ihrig could be the one lefty starter at MB, especially if Tseng jumps to AA.

LHP Rob Zastryzny developed nicely as a starter at Daytona and pitched better & better as the season wore on. He mixes & matches a lot, changing speeds on his fastball by manipulating his grip and arm angle. Tyler Skulina didn't develop like Zastryzny, fighting control problems and then getting hit hard too often when he did throw strikes. Skulina still could be a decent starter at AA or AAA, but he is at least one tick below Edwards and Johnson right now, although he should be in the Tennessee rotation in 2015. 

Juan Carlos Paniagua is unhittable when he throws strikes, but he relies on a hard-to-command power-slider to get swings & misses. His 97 MPH fastball is very straight and he has difficulty throwing it for strikes, and although the Cubs used him as a starter at Daytona in 2014 to get him more innings, he projects as a late-inning reliever at AA Tennessee in 2015. He remiods me a lot of Pedro Strop.

As for the other starters who should get promoted to Tennessee in 2015, Tayler Scott is very hittable. His four-seamer tops out at 91, and his two seamer functions almost like a change-up at 84-85. Felix Pena is OK but nothing special, and so he will probably end up in the bullpen (middle-relief) when and if he gets to AAA (presuming he even gets that far while a Cub, since he can be a minor league FA post-2015). 

The 2014 Tennessee starters beyond Edwards and Johnson aren't in the same class as the guys at the lower levels. Corey Black has major command issues and he projects as a "boom or bust" power reliever, not as a starter. Ivan Pineyro has continued to suffer from forearm tightness in the AFL (often a pre-cursor to TJS), but if healthy he would project as a AAA starter in 2015 and (if he can stay healthy) probably a starter at the MLB level.

So tio sumarize, the Cubs have several nice starting pitcher prospects, but most are at the lower levels.

Although he is not a starter, Cuban defector Armando Rivero has closer stuff, and I would say he has an excellent chance to win a job in the Cub bullpen in 2015. He is 27-years old and he was a closer in Serie Nacional (the Cuban major league) prior to defecting, so there is no reason to keep him at Iowa for another year if he pitches well in Spring Training.  

I suspect the Cubs will park Arodys Vizcaino at Iowa for another season and develop him as a closer. He pitched on a rather limited schedule out of the bullpen in 2014, but the Cubs need to cut him loose in 2015 and see if he can handle the required demands and load of a late-inning reliever. After struggling upon getting promoted to Iowa from Tennessee, Vizcaino pitched "lights out" the last couple of weeks at Iowa prior to getting a September "cup of coffee" in Chicago.

The Cubs really need a good lefty reliever who can pitch reliably in the 7th & 8th innings. Wesley Wright is more of a #2 bullpen lefty. Zac Rosscup has the stuff to be a #1 lefty in the pen, but he struggles to throw strikes. Too bad the Cubs lost Jeff Beliveau off waivers a couple of years ago, because he is more what they need out of a LHRP. Hunter Cervenka is the only other lefty relief prospect above A-ball who projects as an MLB pitcher, although Sam Wilson could be the best one of all. Wilson should be the #1 lefty at FW in 2015, and he could get fast-tracked.  

Baseball America reports that the Cubs have signed (re-signed) LHP Hunter Cervenka and LHP Jeffry Antigua to 2015 minor league successor contracts.

RHRP Marcus Hatley, RHSP Dae-Eun Rhee, and RHP Starling Peralta (probably the Cubs top three post-2014 minor league 6YFA) have apparently not yet signed 2015 minor league successor contracts.  

The Cubs have until 5 PM (Eastern) today to decide whether to add any of their unsigned Rule 55 6YFA to the 40-man roster, if they are unable to entice the player to sign a 2015 minor league successor contract in the meantime. NOTE: The Cubs also must reinstate Ryan Sweeney and Justin Ruggiano from the 60-day DL by 5 PM (Eastern) today.

MLB RULE 55 CUBS MINOR LEAGUE FREE-AGENTS AT 5 PM (EASTERN) 11-3-2014: (updated 11-3-2014)

SIX-YEAR FREE-AGENT:
Lars Anderson, 1B
Alberto Cabrera, RHP
Marcelo Carreno, RHP
Lendy Castillo, RHP 
Charlie Cutler, C
Eduardo Figueroa, RHP
Luis Flores, C
Edgar Gonzalez, INF
Marcus Hatley, RHP
Marcos Mateo, RHP
Jonathon Mota, INF
Starling Peralta, RHP
Carlos Pimentel, RHP
Dae-Eun Rhee, RHP
Jose Rosario, RHP
Chris Valaika, INF
Josh Vitters, OF

SECOND CONTRACT FA: 
Jesus Arias, RHP (previously released by CLE)
Humberto Garcia, INF (previously released by CHW)
Yeiker Lovera, RHP (previously released by CLE)
Nate Maldonado, C (previously released by CHC)
Manny Ramirez, OF (previously released by TEX)
Brohiglyn Rivero, RHP (previously released by TB)
Julio Sanchez, RHP (previously released by COL)
Roberto Vahlis, C (previously released by TOR)

Once a player is declared an MLB Rule 55 minor league FA, the player can sign a major league or minor league contract with any club, including the player's former club.

Because Cervenka and Antigua signed 2015 minor league succsessor contracts, neither of them will be declared MLB Rule 55 minor league 6YFA this afternoon, although both will be eligible for selection in the Rule 5 Draft next month.

BTW, the last player the Cubs selected in the Major League Phase of the Rule 5 Draft (RHP Hector Rondon from CLE in December 2012) and the last player the Cubs lost in the Major League Phase of the Rule 5 Draft (RHP Marcos Mateo to AZ in December 2013) were minor league 6YFA-eligibles who signed minor league successor contracts prior to becoming a 6YFA, so it would not be that much of a surprise if Cervenka gets plucked in the Rule 5 Draft next month. 

A free-agent signed to a minor league contract or re-signed to a minor league successor contract prior to the Rule 5 Draft is eligible for selection.