Cubs vs. Cardinals Series Thread (Games 29-31)

It's rivalry time, folks! The redbirds come into town with a 20-11 record and the first spot in the division. This is the first time the two teams will face off in 2019. Despite the gap in their records, the two teams should be matched pretty evenly. The Cards come into the series second in the NL in runs scored, but the Cubs are only 4 runs behind them and trail only the Dodgers in WRC+ and actually lead the NL in WOBA. Both teams also bring tremendous production from the SS position, where Paul DeJong and Javier Baez have each contributed to the offensive resurgence of shortstops across the maors. The Cards have had a slightly better bullpen, but the Cubs have had the edge from starting pitchers. See the pitching matchups below.


Game 29
CHC: RHP Kyle Hendricks (1-4, 5.33 ERA)
STL: RHP Jack Fleherty (3-1, 4.06 ERA)
First pitch 1:20pmCDT

Hendricks got knocked around for 7 earned runs in his start against the D-Backs. 2019 has not yet seen the sharp command that had allowed him to succeed in previous years. Marcell Ozuna had Hendricks's number in the past (1.157 OPS against) and has been showing off his power in the early going this year.

Jack Flaherty has lowered his walk rates and kept his strikeout rate over 10 per nine innings, but he's allowed 7 homeruns already. He faced the Cubs 3 times in 2018 and went 1-1 with 5 earned runs in 12.2 innings.


Game 30
CHC: RHP Yu Darvish (2-3, 5.02 ERA)
STL: RHP Michael Wacha (2-0, 4.78 ERA)
First pitch 3:05pmCDT

Darvish had his best start of the season last time out. He went 6 innings and allowed only 1 earned run for a win against the D-Backs. He also still gave up 4 walks and another homerun (7 on the season). Most Cardinals will be facing him for the first time.

Wacha missed much of 2018 with one of those pesky oblique injuries. In 2019, it's the base on balls that's nagging at him. Last time out he pitched 5 innings and was good enough to get a win against the Nats (3 earned runs). There are a bunch of Cubs' hitters with gaudy numbers against him. As a group, they have a .997 OPS against him in 163 at bats.


Game 31
CHC: LHP José Quintana (3-1, 3.48 ERA)
STL: RHP Adam Wainwright (3-2, 3.73 ERA)
First pitch 6:05pmCDT

Quintana has been extremely sharp in most of his starts so far. Last time, he was good enough to get through 5.2 allowing only 5 baserunners, but two of those baserunners got to trot their way around. As a group, the current Cardinals have mashed against him (.979 OPS against).

Adam Wainwright is now in his 15th season as a Cardinal and is recovering from an injury-shortened 2018. His velocity is down a bit, as you might expect of a pitcher in his late 30s. He's been effective against current Cubs, and Javy has a particularly bad 3-17 against him with 5 strikeouts.



Go Cubs!

Comments

Happ hasn't fanned all week...

do you know what's up with ryan williams's usage?  he seems to only be pitching once a week, and in short relief.

CRUNCH: Like Dalton Geekie at South Bend, Garrett Kelly and Brendan King at Myrtle Beach, and Brad Markey at Tennessee, Ryan Williams is activated when he is needed, and he is placed on the 7-day IL or is assigned (on paper) to the Eugene reserve list when he is not needed. He understands the drill (the alternative would be getting released). 

I don't think the Cubs' over-the-top emphasis on pitching in the 2016/17 draft and free agent signing is working. Adding a second rookie league team covered this up for a while but there are still just four full-season minor league teams.  If you want to see if Williams is back from his injury, you have to let him pitch.  Why sign Geekie and Kelly from independent ball, then put them on the shelf?  Other guys in this "reserve" category have done well at lower levels, gotten promoted, but aren't getting to play.  Meanwhile, the offense at Myrtle Beach has been pathetic.  That's a result of all the position players we didn't draft on the first and second day in 2016/17.  It's great when you get a Jared Young on the third day but he's already at AA due to lack of competition within the system.  Most of the other guys drafted in those rounds  have already been cut.  I'm ready to call this strategy a failure and an important contributor to the Cubs continuing to have one of the lowest-ranked minor league systems.

Genuine question that I think you and/or Phil may have a response to: In a system thin on solid prospects, why can't a team prioritize appropriate placement of good prospects and simply fill gaps higher in the system with minor league free agents and other journeymen? Aside from minor league payroll, what are the costs to that?

Theo saw the age of the rotation in the Championship season and prioritized pitching.  Makes sense.  He's been quoted saying hitting prospects are easier to identify than pitching ones.  Perhaps, but maybe a guy like Chris Bryant clouded that judgement?  The stupidity as I see it is that if you are going to evaluate more pitching prospects than other teams, there have to be real opportunities to see them pitch.  Adding a second rookie league team lets you keep more guys under contract, at cheap salaries.  It doesn't give you more capacity to see if they are good!  In addition to the guys that Phil mentioned, you see pitchers who other observers think have potential stuck in the logjam.  Kellogg starts his third consecutive season at MB.  Barry is a key contibutor to the Emeralds' championship win, so he gets to go back there!?  Lawlor gets signed from the Frontier League, does pretty well at South Bend, then returns to South Bend.  These guys probably should be promoted, but when and to where?  The organization has too many pitching prospects in their mid-20's and they haven't seen enough of them to know what they have.  Meanwhile, Myrtle Beach, which should be home for the core of position players drafted in 2016/17, has a .213 team batting average.  You can tweak your minor league emphasis but Cubs leadership went overboard.

I wasn't a fan of the pitching-heavy 2016 and 2017 drafts as they were happening. Still, not a fan. That said, Matt Swarmer is getting outs in Triple-A before being Rule 5-eligible. The system is about at the best quality/balance level that I remember. Lean very slightly bat-heavy in June, get a reasonably good college closer (Cronin from Arkansas?), and I'll be good with it.

Charlie, JustSayin', Tim: the problem is bigger than which component, hitting or pitching, they prioritize. It goes to the core of management. The annual end-of-season firing squad that scapegoats team officials somehow never touches the chief incompetent, Jason McLeod.

McLeod drafted Kris Bryant, which you or I could have done as well after a season where we lost 100 games. McLeod's other top-10 picks were Schwarber (#4), Almora (#6) and Happ (#9), none of whom plays every day in the majors.

And then there's pitching. Thirty major-league teams employ and utilize a dozen-or-so major-league pitchers each, so the league needs 360-odd pitchers at a given time to put on baseball performances daily.  Who are the dozen major-league pitchers that McLeod has drafted into this pitcher-hungry system? You can start with the 2012 draft or go back to the Boston and San Diego years. (He didn't draft Lester, by the way.) The Cubs deserve a hefty fine for starving the league of ML-quality pitching.

Where I live, Myrtle Beach is the only Cub farm team I ever get to see. They've been in steady decline ever since they affiliated with the Cubs.

Yeah, you're right. Drafting and developing baseball players is easy. I don't know why McLeod hasn't produced more everyday stars on the current Cubs teams. I mean, you and I could've/would've drafted Kris Bryant. Everybody would have (except the Astros). A good VP of Player Development and Scouting would be able to draft a Kris Bryant every year, amirite?

And I get what you mean with Myrtle Beach. Sheesh! After winning the Carolina League championship in 2015 & 2016 (the 1st two years they were the affiliated with the Cubs), they haven't won since!! 

I kid, but I think your expectations are unrealistic.

Here's an excellent 10-year breakdown of the chances of finding a stud player, good player, a guy who makes it to the majors and a bust in the 1st round. Spoiler alert, from the years studied (2000-2010), you were more likely to get a bust in the first round than any other category.

https://community.fangraphs.com/success-rate-of-ml...

It basically shows that drafting and developing players is really hard, and that McLeod and his staff have beaten the odds statistically. They've failed in the pitching realm early on, for sure. And they've had their misses throughout. We agree on that. But every team has a lot of misses in the draft, especially with pitching. They've admitted their failures scouting pitchers publicly over and over again. They looked hard at what they did wrong and made changes. Of late, the results have been better. Great? No. But the Cubs have several arms in the minors right now that McLeod drafted/scouted that are doing very well. 

They developed Alzolay. Clifton (12th round, 2013) is improved and performing well in AAA right now. Tyson Miller (4th round, 2016) and Cory Abbott (2nd round, 2017) are among the league leaders in the Southern League. Riley Thompson (11th round, 2018) is killing it in South Bend. Swarmer (19th round, 2016) in AAA has already been mentioned. Keegan Thompson (3rd round, 2017) and Justin Steele (5th round, 2014) have been dealing with injuries early on this season but show promise in AA.  

And then there's the younger group of Brailyn Marquez (IFA), Jeremiah Estrada (6th round, 2017), Yovanny Cruz (IFA) and Danis Correa (IFA) who are 3+ years away but worth being excited about, not to mention Richard Gallardo. 

Add in AAA relievers James Norwood (7th round, 2014) and Dakota Meekes (10th round, 2016) and that's 15 arms, 9 of which are in AA or AAA. Help is on the way. It appears they missed terribly with Lange and Little. McLeod has to wear that, but he's also had some decent success from 2016 on. 

The Cubs were expected to take Jon Gray, by many.

Team Theo took KB, instead.

i'm salty they passed on aaron nola...i couldn't believe how far one of the best college pitchers fell (7th overall).

c.rodon and b.aiken were sure to go before the cubs got a change to pick (4th)...cubs went with the best college bat (again) with schwarber knowing full well he would have to play LF/1st (seriously, he was barely a catcher in college).

i find it hard to argue against snagging the best college hitter, though...unless there's some flags on his game (like weak handling of inside pitching using aluminum to overcome that shortcoming).

still...i was ready for a real pitching prospect in the system.

I admire your sunny outlook, K Dub, but my sense is they all hit their head in Double A.

The major-league Cubs play other teams, and I usually see interesting pitching prospects over there, like that kid Alcantara last night. And then they all bring in fireballing relievers. Like I said, we don't seem to be doing our part in stocking the major leagues with arms. But we're supposed to be happy because we can afford Cole Hamels at $20 mil.

I think Edwards is a promising young pitcher, but the Cubs didn't draft him. Dillon Maples is very interesting, and, hey, the Cubs did draft him--but not this front office. Samardzija and Cashner were better than what we're getting now.

"They've admitted their failures scouting pitchers publicly over and over again. They looked hard at what they did wrong and made changes." I'm not sure what those changes were. Their annual firing sprees didn't touch McLeod or his scouts, did they?

 

So, Andrew Schultz from Tennessee? Cronin from Arkansas?

VIRGINIA PHIL: I wouldn't say it's a sunny outlook. I made no statements pertaining to eventual major league success. Just stated the facts of more recent success of McLeod's drafting of pitchers. I agree, some may "hit their head in AA". Of course, that completely ignores the 7 pitchers I named that are already doing well, some dominating, in AA and AAA. I'm more of a wait-and-see guy. Not too big on predictions usually.

The statistics show that your expectations of draft success are unreasonably high. But, and I mean this, I don't seek to change your mind on anything. Every fan is allowed their point of view. I'm just sharing mine. 

If you don't want to include Edwards because he wasn't drafted by the Cubs, that's cool. I didn't either. Though he was identified by their scouts under McLeod's leadership and developed by their developmental staff from A-ball on up. Side note: Alcantara wasn't drafted by the Marlins either. They traded for him, too. 

As far as fireballing relievers, there's more than one way to get the job done. Notwithstanding last night's outcome, you can't argue with the results of the Cubs pen thus far, fireballers or no. And if you like the upper 90s heat out of the pen, the Cubs have a couple of those guys developing in Iowa right now. I mentioned one of them in my previous post, James Norwood. If you haven't already, I'd encourage you to check him out.

Not a bad way to open the series! Shorter than a Marvel movie!

That was quite pleasant. 

f’n dominating

Jon Lieber (79 pitch complete game shutout for Cubs in ’01) and Zman (last Cub with an under 100 pitch complete game shutout, in ‘09) both at the game today to see Hendrick’s Maddux outing - and both visited the clubhouse afterward as well, which is pretty swell too. 

2019...dexter fowler still helping the cubs win games.  props.

hurrah for the ever-loyal t.davis, but he is trash behind the plate holding runners or stopping some of the more wild stuff...which is a pretty big deal with darvish pitching.  i have no idea why they're pairing these 2 together rather than something like hendricks/davis.

t.davis GRAND SLAM...1st MLB homer, 1st hit of the season.

That was fun

d.descalso left the game after tweaking his ankle running the bases...it doesn't look that bad, though.

baez!!!!

18-12!

half a game out of 1st.  ESPN night game tomorrow.

zobrist(LF)/bryant/rizzo/baez/contreras/heyward/bote/almora/Q

also, isn't it about time to send m.zagunis down?  he's barely playing and he is obviously not a good "cold" bench option given he has 1 hit and 1 walk with 9Ks in his limited 12PA off the bench to show his stuff.

he came into the season off a hot spring with 50+PA, getting 3 starts in the first week of play where he put up 5 hits (3 doubles) in 10PA...then he went into bench warming mode and got ice cold.

for the 2nd game in a row, fowler forgets how to play CF in wrigley.

He doesn't look fully recovered from his flu to me.

matty v's harry carray impersonation just burried dempster and w.ferrell

...and his 2nd attempt was hot garbage.

good job, guy.

One of the worst 7th innig stretch.

it's like he quickly knew it was going off the rails, but hit the gas instead of the brakes...it just didn't quit being bad.

YOUR 1st PLACE CHICAGO CUBS.

also, wtf chatwood...dude...c'mon...

MIA visits CHC tomorrow night.

Bad news, A-Rod is back next Sunday night.

3 ESPN sunday games in a row...meh.

Recent comments

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  • Arizona Phil 1 hour 35 min ago (view)

    CUBSTER: Manuel Rodriguez was one of about two dozen players signed by the Cubs out of Mexico 2015-17 and he was one of the most-advanced (he spent three seasons in the Mexican League before signing with the Cubs). 

     

  • Arizona Phil 2 hours 14 min ago (view)

    KKvG: The Cubs are doing their Strength & Conditioning Camp October-Thanksgiving and will have Winter Instructs in January. 

     

  • KingKongvsGodzilla 2 hours 34 min ago (view)

    Hellooooo AZPhil,

    Cool post, thanks. To go completely off topic - are Fall instructs happening this year? Did they already happen? 

     

  • Cubster 2 hours 44 min ago (view)

    Grandal leaves Brewers for WSox, 4/73 for a 31 yr old switch hitting catcher that hit .246 with decent on base and power.

     

  • crunch 3 hours 38 min ago (view)

    mekkes plays out like d.maples, but mekkes doesn't throw as hard, mostly just throws his fastball, and it has great deception.  both of them have no predictable command and control.

    given that mekkes is only expected to be a pen arm at best anyway, someone might very well snag him even if they end up sending him back before the season.

    if we still were in an era where you could have "specialist" relievers rather than this new era of innings-guys, he would probably be on the cubs roster given that righties are generally lost against him.

     

  • cubbies.4ever 1 day 1 hour ago (view)

    Why no Dakota Meekes?  Somebody is gonna take him.

     

  • Cubster 1 day 1 hour ago (view)

    Per S Sharma: "Cubs have added C Miguel Amaya, RHP Tyson Miller, RHP Manuel Rodriguez and INF Zack Short to the 40-man roster, which now stands at 36."

    ...Manny Rodriguez must be a bit of a surprise.

     

  • erich081 1 day 8 hours ago (view)

    Interesting, thanks AZ Phil.

     

  • Arizona Phil 1 day 9 hours ago (view)

    First.Pitch.120: Without citing the source, I can say that other than Miguel Amaya, no Cub eligible for selection in the 2019 Rule 5 Draft is more-likely to be selected (if left unprotected) than P. J. Higgins, and if Higgins is selected, the Cubs will almost certainly not get him back. 

     

  • First.Pitch.120 1 day 12 hours ago (view)

    AZ PHIL:  can you tell us a bit more about the "likely" ranking for PJ Higgins? I haven't had a chance to see him IRL. His stat sheet looks ok but not necessarily above some others. Is it a case of the "useful AAA catcher who can also do other things while not destroying you with the bat"?

     

  • JustSayin' 5 days 9 hours ago (view)

     I hear you but welcome to the world of Theo.  The team is always a step or two away from the World Series in his mind, whether that is true or not.  Therefore, the thing to do on the margin is to trade top prospects or younger guys on the roster for that missing puzzle piece, not build for the future.  I had a front-row seat for this as a Red Sox fan.  If Pedro Martinez doesn't insist the Red Sox sign David Ortiz for table scraps and Chris Bryant isn't the no-brainer second pick in the draft, we'd all be wondering what happened to that Theo guy who was in the Red S

     

  • Cubster 5 days 10 hours ago (view)

    Shogo Akiyama is a lefty bat, career BA at.301 w/ Seibu Lions.  Recent OBPs: .419, .385, .398, .403 and .392. HR 20-15 in last 3 seasons Stolen bases, 12 in 2019, 18 in best season (2016). Defense supposedly plus-plus, 7-10 assists (10 in 2016). Clearly a leadoff hitter.

     

  • crunch 6 days 3 hours ago (view)

    christian yelich committed internet homicide on yu darvish...

    https://twitter.com/ChristianYelich/status/1195462...

     

  • Charlie 6 days 7 hours ago (view)

    Little in the offseason could make me happier than the Cubs finding ways to retain the good MLB players who came up with them while remaining competitive. This Javy extension talk makes me much happier as a fan than the Bryant and Contreras trade talk.

     

  • crunch 6 days 7 hours ago (view)

    "Javy Baez. The two-time All-Star shortstop and 2018 MVP runner-up already has begun negotiations on a potential long-term extension with the Cubs, according to sources."

    also, some talk of being linked to shogo akiyama (CF, Japan, 32yo in April)

    https://chicago.suntimes.com/cubs/2019/11/15/20966...

     

  • crunch 1 week 4 hours ago (view)

    j.odorizzi accepted his qualifying offer (17.8m) from MIN...so did j.abreu (CWS)....everyone else is gonna play the FA market.

    w.smith (SF) immediately signed with the braves for 3/39 (13m team option/1m buyout on the backend).  braves lose a 2nd round pick...which they'll probably get back when someone signs j.donaldson.