Cubs vs. Phillies: Darvish vs. Arrieta (Game 45)

CHC (27-17): RHP Yu Darvish (2-3, 5.14 ERA)
PHL (27-19): RHP Jake Arrieta (4-4, 4.02 ERA)
First pitch 7:05pmCDT

The Cubs return to Wrigley and bring a bit of the NL East with them. Darvish's last start was middling in some respects. He went 5.1 and allowed 2 earned runs on five hits against Cincinnati. But he showed his best command of 2019 and it's hard to care about anything else at this point. It's the first time he's walked fewer than 3 batters since April 10, when also allowed four earned runs and struck out only 4. His zone percentage was 47.1% compared to 40.8% on the season, and when he threw the ball out of the zone he got swings 35.2% of the time compared to 27.5% on the season. Today he'll try to establish some consistency. The current Phillies are 10-29 against him with no homeruns. Bryce Harper has never faced him.This is the Cubs' first look at the Phillies in 2019. They come into Chicago with a 2.5 game lead on the 2nd place Braves and a record only 1 game worse than the Cubs'. Bryce Harper has been good but not great for them so far, striking out 30% of the time but playing much improved defense compared to his career worst defense in 2018. They've drawn value from a good portion of their roster rather than relying heavily on any one star performer. Andrew McCutchen has shown he's still good for 20 homeruns and a .360 OBP. Rhys Hoskins has settled into being a solid MLB slugger with plenty of patience. And Jake Arrieta fits right into a decent pitching rotation still awaiting a standout.

If you are looking for an easy narrative, then this matchup is a miniature referendum on the 2017-2018 offseason. The Cubs failed to work out an extension with Arrieta after he completed some heroic feats on the north side and launched his career into new territory. Whereas the Cubs signed Darvish to a 6-year deal worth $126 million and Tyler Chatwood for 3/$38M, Arrieta ended up with the Phillies on a 3-year $75M contract. But if you are into that narrative, you probably already think the Cubs should have chosen differently. Arrieta was good enough with the Phillies last year, earning a 3.96 ERA and making 31 starts. This year he has been similarly good enough. It's easier to think of him as a groundball pitcher at this point rather than the over-powering ace he was for a few years in Chicago. After a jump in his slider use last year, he's turning to that pitch at a decreased rate again in the early going. The only current Cubs to face him are Descalso and Heyward. Descalso is 0-10 with five strikeouts; even with Baez perhaps getting a day off to rest his ankle, I wonder if Bote might get a shot at 2nd. Heyward is 6-18 with one double.

May Jake receive a warm greeting from the fans and from the bats.