Cubs vs. Reds: Series Thread (Games 49-51)
The Cubs came up a bit short on their comeback attempt yesterday and had to accept a 2-2 split with the Phillies. They move on to greet the Reds to Wrigley for a 3-game set.
The Cubs matched up with the Reds in mid-May for a tough 1-2 series loss. Every game in that series was decided by 2 runs or fewer. The Cubs will run out an exact repeat of their starters in that series, but Tanner Roark will be the only familiar face on the other side. The Reds are well rested, having played only 5 games and having 3 days off since then. See below for the game-by-game matchups.
CHC: RHP Kyle Hendricks (4-4, 3.21 ERA)
CIN: RHP Anthony DeSclafani (2-2, 4.60 ERA)
First pitch 1:20pmCDT
Hendricks got his fourth win despite allowing four runs in his last start against the Nationals. Three of those runs scored on an Anthony Rendon homerun. The start before that, he beat the Reds in eight innings and allowed only one run while striking out seven. A Joey Votto solo homer accounted for the only damage. Hendricks went 3-4 and drove in two in that game as well. Current Reds have faced Hendricks 191 times, with most of those PAs concentrated among Cincinnati vets. The cumulative OPS against him is only .664. Joey Votto has not been impressed by Hendricks's wily ways, having outdone him to the tune of 11 walks, and 9 hits (3 homeruns) in 21 at bats. As ever, Hendricks can probably aim to handle the rest of the lineup and trust his own batters to collectively outproduce Votto. Dietrich and Suarez always have the potential to sneak up on you and go yard, of course.
Anthony DeSclafani's 2019 has been pretty strongly defined by two of the three true values. He's striking out batters at a much higher rate than he usually does (10 per 9 innings), but he's also allowing 2 homeruns per nine innings. His groundball rate is way down in the early going. The pitch tracking system seems to think he's using his sinker less this year, but that doesn't appear to be working out for him. The Dodgers tagged him for 3 homeruns in 4 innings of work on May 17 and he's had a full week to either forget about it or stew over it. Bryant is 5-15 off of him and Javy is 2-5 with a homerun. Rizzo is 4-24.
CHC: RHP Yu Darvish (2-3, 5.06 ERA)
CIN: RHP Tyler Mahle (1-5, 3.51 ERA)
First pitch 1:20pmCDT
Darvish has shown signs of improvement in his last few starts. After issuing no walks and striking out 11 Reds in a May 15 no-decision, he went 6 innings against the Phillies in his last start. Things were going swimmingly until a shaky 6th that saw him walk two, give up a stolen base, and allow a run-scoring single and triple. Mixed in their was a potential double-play that twas not. Current Reds have seen little of him, but Derek Dietrich (possibly the Reds' best position player so far?) is 3-6 with a homerun.
Tyler Mahle earned his first win in his last start against the Dodgers, going 6 shutout innings. Despite the record, he seems to have figured something out this year, cutting his walk rate by more than half compared to the last two years while missing more bats. Kyle Schwarber is 3-7 and Javy is 4-8, each with a homerun, against the 24-year-old righty. Other current Cubs have only five hits against him in 43 at bats and have 0 walks.
CHC: LHP Jose Quintana (4-3, 3.30 ERA)
CIN: RHP Tanner Roark (3-3, 3.51 ERA)
First pitch 1:20pmCDT
Hooray, hooray, no Sunday night game!
Quintana pitched 6 scoreless innings allowing two hits and three walks for a no-decision in the Phillies series. He had a stretch of five middling starts before that but he has generally been the Cubs' most dependable starter. Leaving out his early relief appearance and his first clunker of a start, he's gone at least 5 in every start since and has gone 6 or more innings in 6 out of 8 of those starts. Votto is unsurprisingly the Red to watch out for, 8-17 against Quintana.
Tanner Roark has succeeded this year in large part due to his very low HR-per-fly-ball rate. That shouldn't be sustainable, as he's not getting ground balls or weak contact, nor is he suppressing walks. Maybe the Cubs can turn his stats around a bit. He allowed 3 earned runs in 5 innings facing the Cubs when the teams last matched up. Tyler Chatwood is 1-1 off of him and Kyle Hendricks is 2-2 with a pair of runs-batted-in. Kris Bryant's 7-14 pales in comparison.
Have fun, Cubs fans! May we be spared ESPN for months to come!
Expect wet and weird conditions Saturday and Sunday with high potential for delays, weird defensive plays, and windblown homers. Flash floods and thunderstorms are in the forecast starting Friday night. Radar suggests the worst of it should be in the evenings. If that forecast holds true, the wind will be blowing out toward the lake and could be gusting at times.
crunch 1 hour 45 min ago (view)
"Chicago Cubs @Cubs
Our Aug. 7-9 series at St. Louis has been rescheduled as three 7-inning doubleheaders at Wrigley Field.
#Cubs will be home team for Game 1. Cardinals home team for Game 2."
Eric S 1 hour 56 min ago (view)
It's been fantastic how little use the pen has had (relatively) thanks to the starters going for six-seven innings. Hopefully Chatwood keeps the line moving tonight.
Dolorous Jon Lester 4 hours 40 min ago (view)
I agree with all of this except maybe Tepera. I'd put him firmly in ??? territory. I feel like he's looked better than his results but it's hard to say given small sample size.
Dolorous Jon Lester 15 hours 36 min ago (view)
Managerial change making a difference I think. Hopefully the changes to the amateur scouting department also bears fruit
Cubster 17 hours 24 min ago (view)
David Ross might be worthy of a little credit, especially sorting out the bullpen issues.
crunch 17 hours 29 min ago (view)
this team is amazing. i want more than 60 games of this. darvish since mid-season last year has been great stuff.
also, wick got to close. kimbrel hasn't worked in quite a while.
Eric S 18 hours 10 min ago (view)
39 pitch inning by Burnes.
crunch 18 hours 46 min ago (view)
...well, it is true that's the plan...but...umm..."allegedly"
QuietMan 18 hours 56 min ago (view)
Cubs to play double headers Monday and Wednesday against the Cardinals.
Eric S 19 hours 47 min ago (view)
Ha! Hope Nico goes on a heater!
Cubster 19 hours 53 min ago (view)
"Not thrilled"...as if on cue, Nico leads off with a double and a later Schwarbsbomb.
Eric S 21 hours 47 min ago (view)
Updated Bullpen tiers:
Tier 1 (Closer/Firemen)
Wick and Jeffress (interchangeable)
Tier 2 (Preferred Setup roles)
Tepera, Sadler, Rea (!)
Tier 3 (Face lefties exclusively if possible)
Ryan (has to get that fastball out of mid-80s or head to South Bend)
Tier 4 (Long man innings eater)
Tier 10 (reserved for use when either up or down by 10+ runs)
I think that covers it?
Jackstraw 23 hours 15 min ago (view)
Wait. The bullpen can get worse? That's unpossible.
Eric S 23 hours 34 min ago (view)
Here we go again: Nico, Rizzo, Javy, Willson, Schwarber (LF), Happ, Bote, Souza, Caratini
Not thrilled with Nico leading off when the greatest leadoff hitter in baseball history was available but whatever
crunch 23 hours 51 min ago (view)
bryant was supposedly gonna be in the lineup but he has left ring finger and wrist hurties.
Charlie 1 day 7 min ago (view)
I really think they could play .500 from here and would take the division.
But leave room for at least a week long slump due to bullpen implosion.