Cubs vs. Padres: Series Thread (Games 97-99)

The Cubs (52-44) take on the Padres (46-50) in a three-game set of matinees at Wrigley. The Padres are a thoroughly mediocre team, but they've played streaky ball since early June and have jumped up and surprised both the Dodgers and the Brewers during that time with three wins against each. The streaks have run both ways, as they've also gone through four losing streaks of at least three games during that period. This will be the first time the Cubs face them in 2019. Since last year, they've added Manny Machado. He's been good for them so far, albeit with a slightly lower than usual batting average for him. But rookie Fernando Tatis Jr. has been the offensive star, offering power, speed, and (thanks to a .430 BABIP) a high average. Hunter Renfroe also seems to be enjoying 2019--he just recently passed his previous single season high in homeruns and now sits at 27. Kirby Yates is enjoying a banner year out of the bullpen, leading the pitching staff in fWAR, striking out 14.36 per 9 innings and generally going untouched by the 2019 homerun boom. See below for game-by-game matchups.


Game 97, Friday, July 19, 1:20pmCDT
CHC: LHP Jon Lester (9-6, 3.74 ERA)
SD: LHP Eric Lauer (5-7, 4.04 ERA)

Lester earned his ninth win against Pittsburgh with a 6.2 innings and three earned runs allowed. Eric Hosmer is 6-19 with a homer off of him. Wil Myers is 2-16 with eight strikeouts.

Eric Lauer went 6-7 with a 4.34 ERA in his 2018 rookie season. This year he's improved most of his peripherals a touch, lowering walks and homeruns and boosting his groundball rate, but sacrificing some strikeouts along the way. Most recently, he pitched six innings and allowed two runs, one earned, in a no-decision against the Dodgers. The Cubs went 5-10 off of him in an abbreviated start on July 15 of last year.


Game 98, Saturday, July 20, 1:20pmCDT
CHC: LHP José Quintana (7-7, 4.21 ERA)
SD: LHP Joey Lucchesi (7-4, 3.92 ERA)

Quintana has won three games in a row, allowing six earned runs in 19 innings. He's allowed zero homeruns during that stretch. Ian Kinsler is 15-48 with two homeruns off of him. Hosmer is 13-71 with 14 strikeouts. Machado is 3-15.

Joey Lucchesi is the second sophomore starter working against the Cubs in this series. He went 8-9 last year with a 4.08 ERA, striking out more than a batter per inning along the way. This year the strikeouts are down to 8.55 per nine innings, but he's also giving up slightly fewer homeruns. He got a no-decision in last start against Atlanta, pitching five innings and allowing two earned runs. He pitched 5.2 innings at Wrigley last August and current Cubs went 7-21 in that start. Javy went 2-3 with a homerun.


Game 99, Sunday, July 21, 1:20pmCDT
CHC: RHP Kyle Hendricks (7-7, 3.46 ERA)
SD: RHP Cal Quantrill (2-2, 4.21 ERA)

Hendricks last went six innings and allowed two earned runs against the Reds, looking recovered from the shoulder issues that sent him to the IL briefly. Current Padres ar 15-57 off of him with 13 strikeouts.

Cal Quantrill has made 8 starts and appeared out of the bullpen four times in this, his rookie season. He features a mid-90s fastball and a plus changeup. He got a no-decision in his last start, going six innings and allowing no runs to Atlanta. He had been pitching out of the bullpen for the last few weeks of June but returned to the rotation in July. No current Cubs have faced him.

Comments

Edwards back from the IL. Can’t wait to see him blow a lead this weekend!

Rizzo busting out of his home run slump with gusto: grand slam!

contreras participated in "baseball activities" today...no idea what that was, but that's a good start to a IL comeback.

meanwhile, brandon morrow is on some beach sipping drinks or something.  i wonder if he's even going to pitch again for the cubs.  back in april/may he was supposed to only miss the first half of the season and supposedly he was ready to face live batters a few weeks ago after throwing some side sessions.  now...i dunno...

Morrow update today from Theo here:

https://www.bleachernation.com/2019/07/19/cubs-injury-updates-hamels-in-early-august-contreras-off-his-feet-for-another-day-morrows-timetable/

Sounds more and more likely that both Zobrist and Morrow have played their last and final games as Cubs

ugg.

i can live without zobrist, especially since the team got their $$ back from it...but morrow would be a damn nice fresh pen addition down the stretch.

He’s sipping drinks on a beach?

Could he be Mai Tai Guy???

ha.

he's a low level jerk, but i find it hard to hate the guy when he doesn't try ducking an interview to explain wtf his problem is.

Of course, the Cubs knew he was delicate when they signed him, but Maddon pushed him anyway. How much value is there to an elite player who can’t be used very much?

jon lester not fielding for himself is still stupid.

...and why the hell is tyler chatwood the only guy up in the pen in a game with a man on 2nd (after a 40ft base hit + throwing error) and 0 outs while down by 1?

Given the game conditions of an extra hot afternoon and Lester’s high stress innings, I was surprised he went out to start the 6th inning. 

some close calls, but he struggled his way out of it.  the 1 run lead remains.

he didn't look good, but he got his 6 innings in.

107 heat index. Pat described Lester after striking out Machado for final out in the 6th as a bulldog- sounds about right. 

evidently bryant is a gold glove LF'r

also, we've been seeing a bit of bryant in LF recently.

Bryant’s always been pretty good in LF. It’s RF where he looks most awkward to me. Something about staying on the left side of the field maybe. I think you’ll see Bryant and Schwarber platooned in LF going forward, though that might depend on Bote’s ability to start hitting LHP again. 

Bote’s numbers trending down unfortunately - not far from Russell‘s

1 pitch, tie game.

great job strop.

Strop has become very adroit at blowing leads giving up the long ball (same thing last Friday coming off the all star break?)

Too many of our relief arms have excelled at blowing late leads. Strop and Edwards have been the primary ones.

Should the Cubs go on to win this game ... wow.  Some crazy-stupid self inflicted damage that they’ve somehow skirted. 

SD defense is the player of the game.

Cubs win and this Kimbrel pickup paying dividends

STL down by 7...so they score 10 in the 6th...and barely manage to win a 12-11 game.

m.leake (SEA) perfect through 7ip, 67 pitches

base hit to lead off top 9th...aww.

killer performance and there should be enough in the tank to easily get the CG (only 79 pitches).

Mike Leake? Check that guy's locker for a genie lamp.

Another lefty Padre starter and JHey gets a breather.  Robel in LF (batting 5th) Almora CF (leadoff) and Bryant in RF

Almora is an ideal leadoff hitter ... said no one ever. 

I checked.  You are correct.  No one.  Ever.

currently a big fan of hispanic italians...

currently a big fan of hispanic puerto ricans...

joe sure likes putting kimbrel to work.

delay over, game on.

edwards gonna edwards...blah

The bitter side of me thinks it should have been a two for one trade for Maldonado 

Anyways, has not been a clean series for the Cubs against the Padres - fortunate to have won the series and a 7-2 home stand is a pretty big dill. Or deal. Or something

there's always nick castellanos for a chance to rid of edwards...at which point a couple month rental will probably turn edwards into their ace closer or something just as awesome.

I feel pretty safe in saying that 1. They don’t want him and 2. If they did, things wouldn’t improve for CJ.

Allowing inherited runners and 1-2 of your own in a close game is what I like to call the “Carl Jr Special.” It was formerly a Justin Grimm special, thankfully Carl stepped up to fill that void.

Edwards is frustrating at times. Some of that frustration comes from thinking he could be much better than he currently is. But prior to this year (in which he has pitched very few innings), he's overall been an OK relief pitcher in the majors. I'm happy to wait and see on him for quite a while. Still has an option and is cheap, right?

I think this is his last option year. And he’s not as cheap as you’d think, he’s a super two qualified player this year.

Carl Edwards Jr will be out of minor league options next season (2020), and he will (once again) be arbitration-eligible post-2019 (he was "Super Two" arb eligible post-2018) and he will be a FA post-2022. 

Cheap may not be the right word, but has put up reasonable value per dollar compared to other relievers prior to this ear.

He accrued 2.9 bWAR 2017-2018. Strop put up 3.2 bWAR during the same period. Edwards is making $1.5M this year. Strop is making $6.25M. He'll get a bump again this offseason even if he doesn't rebound in the second half, of course. I just don't see a need to trade him unless the Cubs are being offered value in return.

That said, it does make my stomach knot up a bit when I see they are bringing him into a close game.

Not as much as it makes his stomach tighten!

i dont think we should trade him. We would get nothing of value back. But I don’t think he should be a bullpen piece on a playoff contender either. He should be in Iowa. Reassess where he’s at for September and next year. If they don’t like what they see, non-tender.

cubs lose, cards win, brews win.

boo.

I feel like I've already waited & seen enough of CEJ...

Yeah.....yeah. I think I'm good too. Put him and Strop in the Shawn Greene deal.

Edwards optioned to Iowa per Jesse Rogers,

Recent comments

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  • bradsbeard 16 min 25 sec ago (view)

    The draft over the ASB and the trade deadline pushed back until August 15th or so would make sense. Otherwise, I don't know how scouting departments are going to handle the draft lead up and the trade deadline running almost simultaneously.  

     

  • Arizona Phil 32 min 54 sec ago (view)

    One other thing about MLB player development that is very different from NFL, NBA, and NHL player development is that most MLB clubs have upwards of 300 minor league players under contract (not including players on their MLB 40-man roster, the Cubs presently have 301 minor leaguers under contract on nine minor league affiliates).

     

  • Arizona Phil 33 min 23 sec ago (view)

    JUST SAYIN: MLB is the only one of the four major North American professional sports that holds its draft and signs its draft picks during the season.

     

  • crunch 9 hours 4 min ago (view)

    umpire eric cooper has died...complications from knee surgery (blood clot)...52 years old

     

  • crunch 20 hours 36 min ago (view)

    "MLB Network's Jon Heyman reports former player David Ross and Astros bench coach Joe Espada "appear to be the frontrunners" for the Cubs' managerial opening."

    espada's had 2 interviews.  for a guy who's actively at his "other job," having a 2nd interview seems like both sides want to make this work.  SF and PIT are also supposedly interested in espada.

     

  • JustSayin' 22 hours 1 min ago (view)

     That's a fair description of the benefits of the plan but If I have to choose between "better way" and "owners' greed," I pick the latter.  MLB wants better MiLB facilities, on average, without paying a cent.  They want to deal with the social and legal pressure they are getting for not even paying minor league players minimum wage per real hour worked by having less players.  In addition, the draft is to be moved to late August, so every draftee would lose compensation for the stub year in which they are drafted.  For this reason, I'm not sure your point about col

     

  • Hagsag 22 hours 26 min ago (view)

    Thanks Mr. Phil.

     

  • Arizona Phil 23 hours 28 min ago (view)

    HAGSAG: Besides reducing the costs that are associated with operating a minor league club, reducing the number of minor league affiliates would allow MLB organizations to increase the salaries of their remainng minor league players (who would be the organization's most-legit prospects) without having to increase the organization's aggregate minor league payroll. 

     

  • crunch 23 hours 54 min ago (view)

    The discussions on this matter have been quite varried.  There seems to be a lot of pressure connected to this on minor league team owners who haven't upgraded their facilities/park in a while or who lag in quality compared to their competitors.

    It seems like this would not only cause some teams to fold, but some radical redistribution of existing teams/cities into new minor league levels rather than just pruning some teams over others.

     

  • Hagsag 1 day 12 hours ago (view)

    AZ Phil, what are your thoughts on the discussion to eliminate 42 low minor league teams in 2021? What would this do to the Dominican League? Thanks.

     

  • crunch 1 day 18 hours ago (view)

    yanks/astros game 6 was a f'n classic.  wow.

    altuve continues to build his astros legend.

     

  • bradsbeard 2 days 8 hours ago (view)

    Thanks for this. I agree they’ll probably take their chances in the Rule 5 if he will resign, though I really wouldn’t mind adding him back to the 40 man. I feel like he has a good chance to be effective out of the bullpen. 

     

  • bradsbeard 2 days 8 hours ago (view)

    I hope Sagara doesn’t end up leaving because of the shakeup. The Athletic did report that his position might be eliminated but that he should be offered another role in the organization somewhere. All I know is Sagara’s name came up frequently in connection with the pitch lab, and he was credited for improvements with Ryan, Wick, and Wieck. Maybe he’ll end up focusing more specifically in that role helping guys tweak things in the lab. 

     

  • JustSayin' 2 days 20 hours ago (view)

    Does anyone have insight into the new management hires and musical chairs the Cubs announced yesterday?  Craig Breslow might be the only guy out there with extensive MLB experience AND the grey matter to challenge any quant not making sense. His role intrigues me but are they going to give him real responsibility to clear out the deadwood (including the existing minor league coordinator who was never good enough to be the pitchers he's coaching?)  Or, is this a superficial change aimed at keeping ownership off Theo's back? 

     

  • Arizona Phil 2 days 21 hours ago (view)

    BRADSBEARD: I think the Cubs want to retain Oscar de la Cruz post-2019, just not on the MLB 40-man roster.

     

  • Charlie 2 days 22 hours ago (view)

    Who are you all rooting for in the World Series? I'm rooting for the Nats to face and defeat Houston, I think, but with very mild interest. Let them get that championship out of the way and then maybe go the way of the post-2016 Cubs.