Cubs vs. Padres: Series Thread (Games 143-146)

This weekend saw the Cubs lose three out of four to the trailing Brewers, fall to 4.5 behind the Cardinals in the division, and shrink their Wild Card lead to 1.5 games with the D-Backs, Phillies, and Brewers all pounding on the door behind them. Meanwhile, fans got news that Javy's jammed thumb is actually a fracture, and Russell was hit in the face with a fastball. If this didn't feel like a turn in the wrong direction, the team's inability to capitalize on the rally after Russell was hit felt like a failure to turn in the right direction. Nico Hoerner is called up to reinforce the middle infield, and maybe the rookie will be able to invigorate the team and the fans after the disappointing series in Milwaukee. He and the rest of the Cubs will take on the Padres for four games on the west coast. Continue below for match-ups.


Game 143, Monday, September 9, 9:10pmCDT
CHC: RHP Kyle Hendricks (9-9, 3.39 ERA)
SDP: RHP Cal Quantrill (6-6, 4.57 ERA)

Hendricks went six solid innings last time out, allowing one earned run on a walk and three hits to Seattle. He lost his other start against the Padres this year but allowed only two runs in seven innings in that start. Hunter Renfroe, Travis Jankowski, and Eric Hosmer have all had some success against him in limited at bats.

Quantrill defeated the Cubs on July 21, shutting them out for 5.2 and allowing only two hits. He pitched in relief of opener Adrian Morejon hat day. Rizzo and Kyle Hendricks have the only his off of him.


Game 144, Tuesday, September 10, 9:10pmCDT
CHC: LHP José Quintana (13-8, 4.00 ERA)
SDP: RHP Ronald Bolaños (0-1, 3.00 ERA)

Quintana earned the lone win in the Brewers series, pitching five innings and allowing four earned runs but benefiting from a booming Cubs offense. He similarly won out against the Padres on July 20, despite allowing five earned runs, including three homers, in five innings. Hosmer has only a .529 OPS against him in 74 at bats.

Bolaños took a loss in his MLB debute, allowing two earned runs in six innings of work against the D-Backs. He leaned heavily on his mid-to-upper-90s fastball in that start, mixing in a smaller portion of sliders, slow curves, and the occasional changeup as well. Having made the jump from AA to the majors, this is his first exposure to the juiced MLB baseball. May he begin to feel its effects.


Game 145, Wednesday, September 11, 9:10pmCDT
CHC: LHP Cole Hamels (7-6, 3.95 ERA)
SDP: RHP Chris Paddack (8-7, 3.54 ERA)

Hamels departed his last start after only 3.1, allowing five earned runs to Milwaukee in his second consecutive start against that offense. He allowed nine hits, two homers, in that 3.1 innings. He was on the I.L. for the last round against the Padres. Machado is 1-14 and Hosmer 0-13 off he veteran lefty.

Paddack was handed a no-decision after 5.1 scoreless innings in his last start. He's relied on strikeouts to a great extent in his debut season, K-ing more than a batter per inning while limiting walks but allowing a fair amount of contact in the air and 1.53 homeruns per nine innings. He missed the Cubs in July.


Game 146, Thursday, September 12, 2:40pmCDT
CHC: RHP Yu Darvish (5-6, 4.12 ERA)
SDP: RHP Dinelson Lamet (2-4, 3.95 ERA)

Darvish allowed one walk and three hits while striking out seven and shutting out the Brewers for five innings in his last start. Perhaps Petco can help him keep the ball in the park, his one consistent shortcoming this season. He hasn't faced the Padres this year. He's held Hosmer to 2-14 in his career.

After missing 2018, Lamet has returned to make eleven starts with the Padres this season. In that time he's thrown his slider 43.9% of the time and his changeup on 1.4% of the time; splits favor left-handed batters. Lamet missed the Cubs in July, but the Cubs faced him way back in May of 2017 in his second MLB start. He won that match, in which Schwarber (1-2) took him deep and Heyward went 2-2.


Much luck to the Rockies, who welcome the Cardinals for three games starting on the 10th.

Comments

Another series where the cubs mlb.com beat writer won’t be at the games. I feel like that dude is seriously never covering the team.

she was a bit boring/safe, but carrie muskat covered the team very well (imo) for many years.

I thought so too. I never had a problem with her writing. I don’t think the modern day beat writer is ever really going to write anything that isn’t safe. She was always there though which to me is the most important thing about a beat writer.

zobrist / schwarb / cast / rizzo / caratini / HOERNER / heyward / bote(3rd) / hendricks

Rosario DFA’d with Hoerner call up. Makes sense

alzolay down, norwood up

The Cubs optioned RHP Adbert Alzolay to South Bend and recalled RHRP James Norwood from Iowa.

It was a paper move only because Alzolay is not going to actually physically join the South Bend Cubs, but even so Alzolay could - ONLY - be optioned to South Bend because a player cannot be optioned to a club's minor league affiliate whose season has ended, and South Bend is the only Cubs minor league affiliate still playing.  

p.alonzo (NYM) with 2HR tonight through 5 innings...47 on the year.  it's his 8th multi-HR game.

it's crazy there's 5 guys who could legit hit 50+ this season (alonzo, trout, yelich, bellinger, e.suarez)...all currently have 44+ HR.

soft arcing bloop single to RF on an 0-2 pitch for nico.

Reminded me of one Starlin Castro.

hit it off the thin part of the bat guessing location wrong.  his swing plane was on target, but the barrell wasn't.  he missed the pitch before quite badly, pulled swinging on a ball off the outer corner.  being able to make contact counts for something as long as you're not pounding it into the infield grass, though.

he's getting a lot of chances with the glove so far tonight through 3ip.  looks comfortable, but not as smooth as baez/russell.

he let a few go toward rizzo a few feet off target, though rizzo's snagged them.

Hoerner already showing some defensive chops that makes me glad Bote isn’t playing SS.

if bote is playing SS something is seriously wrong anyway.  technically he can play SS, but he's best used at 2nd/3rd (though he's had a weird stint playing bad 3rd this season).

i'm just happy to not see as much tony kemp...who's dangerously close to having a mindblowing sub-.400 OPS (57 PA .405 OPS)

hoerner scores his 1st run on a wild pitch.  welcome to the bigs.

nico gets his 1st RBI on a TRIPLE down the LF line (little clumbsy D helped)

first hit, extra base hit, first run scored, first RBI...and only 3 PA.  he could have done it with 1PA if he hit a homer.  totally uneconomical batting, not a legit prospect.

Nice of the rookie to read the script. Way to show up prepared.

zobrist / schwarb / cast / rizzo / bryant / contreras / heyward / hoe / Q

Why isn't Maples up yet?

i really want him to click, but time is running out on his massive control issues.

high velocity fastball and a truly filthy slider...but hard to tell where he's going to put either and it can go on/off without warning.

heyword HR #20

heyward, rizzo, contreras, baez, bryant, and schwarber with 20+ HR.

c.yelich fractured right kneecap...done for the season...fouled a ball off his knee.

wow.

There goes the 50 HR year for him.

Oof. Zobrist's defense. This is not the veteran presence he needs to bring to the team right now.

Defining quality of the 2019 team is inability to get their s*** together: yes or no?

who would have thought lester would be the worst SP on the team?

...then you got a guy like steve cishek who's throwing quite good baseball overall in 2019, but has had a unique talent of blowing games at the same time.  pedro strop (arguably the best relief pitcher in cubs history) has been joining cishek in blowing games, but his numbers are looking like someone who's blowing games.

there's been annoying injuries, but the team has had adequate backups who can hit and the injuries haven't left the team hobbled.  there's ob% and power on this team in the lineup and on the bench.

so yeah, that seems like an inibility to control their bowels.

The biggest issues I see on the team are the inability to hold leads including starters and dreadful situational hitting.

Like, yeah these guys don’t strike out all the time, but with so many of them there’s been so many times where all we needed wasn’t to avoid a K that ends up as the result.

CHARLIE: Of the five contending years since the Cubs got good in 2015, the 2019 version is the most disappointing. The games are actually hard to watch.

The 2019 Cubs remind me of an NFL team that gets out to a double-digit lead over a clearly inferior opponent through three quarters and then plays a "prevent victory" defense and can't protect the lead and then after blowing the lead the kicker misses a chip-shot FG that would have won the game, or an NBA team that doesn't exert the energy to make defensive stops in the 4th quarter and then after allowing the opponent back in the game misses free throws at the end that would have won the game anyway, or an NHL team that can't convert power plays throughout the game and then blows a two-goal lead in the last five minutes and then falls flat in overtime, or a golfer who squanders a four-shot lead going into the back nine and then can't make easy putts over the last two holes that would have sealed the victory.   

Although the contending window for the current Cubs team is through 2021, I suspect there will be some major changes made after this season. There is something wrong with the mix. Problem is, the Cubs aren't exactly loaded with trade chips that would have value to other clubs. One possibility would be to re-sign Nicholas Castellanos and then trade Kris Bryant for a younger less-established MLB player with upside or a couple of quality MLB-ready or near-MLB ready prospects (somebody like Luis Robert would be perfect), since Bryant is a Boras client and so therefore absolutely will not sign a contract extension before hitting free-agency post-2021.

And then there is the Cincinnati Reds, who seem to be taking a "no rebuild as long as Joey Votto is here" approach and therefore might have interest in acquiring Cincinnati native Kyle Schwarber and/or former U. of Cincinnati All-American Ian Happ. (Nick Senzel would be a good long-term fit at 3B if Bryant is traded, and young MLB relievers like Amir Garrett and/or Robert Stephenson would be attractive bullpen pieces).   

Off-hand I would say a top-of-the-order power/speed/OBP spark like the 2015-16 version of Dexter "You Go We Go" Fowler is one really obvious missing piece (which is why I mentioned Luis Robert), as is the lack of reliable shut-down bullpen arms, and not just the closer, but everybody in the pen (which is why I mentioned Garrett and Stephenson). At least the Cubs (finally) started to look in-house for bullpen candidates, so hopefully they won't be tempted to allocate $20M+ in 2020 payroll to journeymen "thirty something" free-agent relievers.

The bottom line is, the Cubs need to get younger in 2020 without starting another rebuild. 

Schwarber slipping on first base and falling on his face on what should have been a double with 17 games to go in the year - yeesh. Would have been fitting if the throw from right field back-picked him for an out. 

That said, at least KB hit a ball deep enough to drive in Rizzo this go around. 

Schwarber is the clumsiest pro athlete I’ve ever seen

Kendall Graveman (July 2018 TJS) has relocated his Article XIX-C minor league rehab assignment to South Bend, where he will start for the SB-Cubs in tonight's MWL playoff game. 

kemp (2nd) / schwarb / cast / rizzo / bryant / contreras / heyward / hoe / ham

kemp .164/.200/.218 in 60 PA, fwiw

64 PA .153/.188/.203

kemp drops below .400 OPS.  this might be a bit controversial, but i don't think he's leadoff material.

russell will remain out pending a medical evaluation on friday

Just how mediocre have the Cubs been for the majority of the season?

https://twitter.com/mdgonzales/status/1171875352236314624?s=21

rizzo going for a triple is as graceful as randy johnson trying to hit.

my god...

leadoff triple, though...woo

...and the cubs fail to score.

rizzo / cast / schwarb / bryant / caratini / heyward / happ (2nd) / hoe / darvish

2nd greatest leadoff hitter of all time back in the 1 slot.

Tony Kemp being #1 I presume 

obviously kemp.

i like maddon, but his "let's give the guy having a rough time more ABs in the 1 slot to sort him out" thing can be painful.

Has Hoerner hit any flyballs since his callup?  The highlights I‘ve seen have all been ground balls - hopefully when his wrist is 100% they’ll be less groundball tendencies. 

He had a little flare off the end of the bat for a hit in his first PA, also a couple deep fly balls the last two nights. 

Thanks.  Looking for encouragement that Hoerner will not be the SS/2B version of Albert Almora, particularly since he may be starting one of those positions coming out of spring training next year. 

I would think the Cubs let him bake a while longer if they believe he'll have any power.

first guy from the draft to make the majors...not surprisingly.

royals claim r.rosario

speaking of royals, j.soler hit HR #44 today

Padres smart, even with all the strikeouts, in taking a lot of pitches from Yu - wait it out and hit the soft underbelly that is the Cubs bullpen.

Darvish thru 5 IP: 0 R, 1 H, 2 BB, 11 K

87 pitches though. Cubs bullpen/defense has consistently butchered Yu’s games / offense needs to step up. 

Cubs 2019: The car wreck you can easily divert your eyes from if you want to keep your sanity

What a hell of an outing by Darvish. Mega kudos

Last eight outs by Darvish recorded via strikeout

Time to stick a fork in Kyle Ryan - four pitch walk with a four run lead.

And follows up with two scoreless innings thanks to two huge DPs

With a four run lead and with expanded rosters, not sure why Schwarber (whose had a good game, face plant and all) is still patrolling left field in the ninth

Deleted double post

wtf wick...

cubs win, brews win, cards win...

Had they managed to blow that - holy smoke. Too close and my nerves are shot. But damn that was an awesome curve by Wick to finish the game off - similar to Yu’s last pitch, also a called K

Enjoy the ride guys.

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  • K Dub 10 min 33 sec ago (view)

    PHIL: Excellent breakdown, Phil. Thanks. 

    I'm sure you heard. QO value was set at $17.8 million the day after you made your post.

     

  • K Dub 18 min 4 sec ago (view)

    Pache, Wright, Muller and Riley feels light to you, Charlie? I respect your opinion, but I would jump at it. I highly doubt the Braves would do it, though. Were talking 2 years of Bryant at what could be 18 million and 28-30 million in his last year of arbitration. 

    The Cubs would be hurting their chances next year and building for 2021 in a deal like that, but that's rebuilding/retooling in one fell swoop. 

     

  • Arizona Phil 2 days 4 hours ago (view)

    CHARLIE: Austin Riley is actually a third-baseman but he had to play LF for the Braves in 2019 because he was blocked by Josh Donaldson, and Cristian Pache is considered to be the best defensive centerfielder in the minors and his bat has improved enough over the past year or two to where he is now rated in or just outside the top ten overall prospects in MLB.

    So a package that includes Riley and Pache and one of the Braves young MLB or MLB-ready SP would probably be more than enough to get the Cubs to bite.

     

  • Dolorous Jon Lester 2 days 7 hours ago (view)

    Max Fried or Bryse Wilson

     

  • crunch 2 days 7 hours ago (view)

    https://www.espn.com/espn/otl/story/_/id/27828247/...

    t.skaggs story keeps getting deeper.

    allegations the team knew about skagg's drug abuse (also his family).  teams are required to report this to MLB.

     

  • Charlie 2 days 10 hours ago (view)

    Except for the headline, the linked post reads more like a trade hypothetical than a trade rumor. I like the idea of looking at this package as a discussion point for expected return for Bryant. I would say it feels a little light to me. It's deep, with two decent outfield prospects with upside and two OK pitching prospects. But Riley doesn't help the team solve the CF problem right now, so he's either redundant to Bote or sort of a Schwarber replacement. Muller's inflated BB% at AA this year worries me a bit too.

     

  • Cubster 2 days 17 hours ago (view)

    I might have missed something and it's been talked about regarding a KB trade rumor from about 10-9-19. 

    https://apple.news/AJUMyEWodQ2GX1cj1gE4ENQ 

    Braves receive: 3B Kris Bryant 

     

  • crunch 4 days 6 hours ago (view)

    they get 3 guys and the cubs get 1 guy.  sounds like a slam dunk for the angels.  pencil trout in the cubs lineup.  he's got upside.

     

  • Jackstraw 4 days 8 hours ago (view)

    I'd hate to part with both Kemp and Chatwood, but if it will bring that Trout guy back, we could even throw in Almora.

     

  • crunch 4 days 11 hours ago (view)

    the ricketts got a brazillian dollar tax break...they need to trickle that down and flex on the entire league.

    we gonna get grandal, rendon, castellanos, g.cole, strasburg, ryu, a.chapman...maybe sign bumgarner and odorizzi to work the pen.

     

  • Arizona Phil 4 days 12 hours ago (view)

    CHARLIE: If the Cubs trade Quintana and his new club pays 100% of his 2020 salary his new club assumes 100% of his salary AAV liability, but if the Cubs agree to pay a portion of Quintana's 2020 salary as part of the trade, whatever portion of Quintana's 2020 salary that is paid by the Cubs would count against the Cubs 2020 AAV. 

     

  • Charlie 4 days 13 hours ago (view)

    PHIL: Thanks for that Boston context--I hadn't realized the trend there. If the Cubs did decide to pick up Quintana's option and then trade him (assuming the Cubs would not agree to pay part of the contract as part of the trade), do they have to do that by a certain date in order for Quintana's contract not to count against them for the CBT? I haven't been able to find any dates attached to the CBT in a quick internet search.

     

  • Arizona Phil 4 days 13 hours ago (view)

    My presumption in the Cubs declining Jose Quintana's 2020 club option as well as declining the club options on the veteran relievers who have one and non-tendering Addison Russell (and this also applies to Joe Maddon not returning as manager in 2020) is that after the monumental late-September collapse of 2019 on the heels of the 2018 Game #163 and Wild Card game defeats Ricketts will no longer accept the Cubs payroll going over the CBT threshold ($208M AAV in 2020) or extending a manager making $5M a year.   

     

  • crunch 4 days 19 hours ago (view)

    i actually like ATL the team...the fans and the 3+ hours of tommy hawk chawpin' non-stop is beyond annoying before even getting into how messed up it is they're still doing that in 2019.  it's all they do, just that 1 single thing...for hours...

    fans were so upset about not getting foam hatchets pre-game yesterday (that was the club's way to "dial it back") they were busy letting the "PC police" know they're here to chant and chop as loud as they could before the first pitch was even thrown.

    it took about 10 runs to shut them up.

     

  • Dolorous Jon Lester 5 days 9 hours ago (view)

    Damn. Atlanta was the only team in the NL I was hoping would advance. I don’t know what I was hoping in LA vs WAS series. Cataclysmic event? (Side note, I live in the DC area, what a dreadful group of fans. They deserve nothing good ever.)

     

  • crunch 5 days 11 hours ago (view)

    i live in the south.  my personal hell has been ATL fans by a huge amount more than STL (or even CWS) fans.

    i've made my decision to sell out my people for personal comfort.