Projected Post-2019 MLB "Super Two" Players

An unsigned player under club control who has accrued at least three but less than six years of MLB Service Time is automatically eligible for salary arbitration.

Also, any unsigned player with at least two years but less than three years of MLB Service Time who accrued at least 86 days of MLB Service Time during the previous season can qualify for salary arbitration as a so-called "Super Two" if the player is among the top 22% in MLB Service Time of players in that group (rounded to the nearest whole number). And if  two or more players are tied with the same MLB Service Time just above the "Super Two" threshold, all of the players with that accrued MLB ST would get "Super Two" status even if that means the number of players with "Super Two" status exceeds 22%.   

Because it is based on a percentage, the "Super Two" threshold fluctuates from year-to-year (it was two years plus 134 days or 2+134 MLB ST post-2018, 2+123 post-2017, 2+131 post-2016, 2+130 post-2015, 2+133 post-2014, 2+122 post-2013, 2+140 post-2012, 2+145 post-2011, 2+122 in 2010, and 2+139 in 2009), but the threshold has generally gone down whenever a new CBA is signed, because the percentage of players who automatically qualify for "Super Two" status has increased with each new CBA.

Besides gaining the right to request salary arbitration and have that right four times instead of just three times, being a "Super Two" player also means the player can elect free-agency if outrighted even though he has not yet accrued three years of MLB Service Time and even if he has not been outrighted previously in his career (however, unlike a player who has accrued at least three years of MLB Service Time and/or has been outrighted previously in his career and who therefore has the option to elect free-agency immediately or else defer the choice until after the conclusion of the MLB regular season, a "Super Two ' player who has not been outrighted previously in his career must make his choice immediately upon being outrighted). 

At present there are 136 players on MLB rosters who are projected to fit the criteria of a player who has accrued at least two years but less than three years of MLB Service Time with at least 86 days of MLB Service Time accrued in the 2019. So that means that 22% of the 136 (29.92 rounded to the nearest whole number, which is 30) will have "Super Two" status post-2019. However, sometimes a player petitions (successfully) to have his listed MLB Service Time adjusted (like due to an injury that occurred before the player was optioned to the minors, or because a player was optioned prior to game time or after the start of a game, both of which would impact the player's service time and thus could impact the number of players who are in the macro group and how many of the players in the group acquire "Super Two" status).

Here is the list of MLB players who are presently projected to be eligible for salary arbitration as a "Super Two" post-2019. This list is preliminary because the MLB regular season is still in progress, but since players are essentially no longer being optioned to the minors (a player cannot be optioned to the minors once a minor league club's season has concluded), the list should be fairly accurate. NOTE: Per the 2016-21 CBA, an MLB regular season ("championship season") must be at least 182 days but no more than 187 days in length, but 172 days constitutes a "full" MLB regular season when calculating MLB Service Time, and so a player cannot get credit for more than 172 days of MLB Service Time in any one season.


POST-2019 MLB SUPER TWO ARBITRATION ELIGIBLE
Andrew Knapp, C (PHI): 2+171 (see NOTE-1 below)
Wandy Peralta, LHP (SF): 2+167
Jesse Biddle, LHP (TEX): 2+166
Hunter Renfroe, OF (SD): 2+165
David Hale, RHP (NYY): 2+163
David Dahl, OF (COL): 2+162
Brent Suter, LHP (MIL): 2+161
Cody Bellinger, OF-1B (LAD): 2+160
Tyler Glasnow, RHP (TB): 2+158
Jordan Montgomery, LHP (NYY): 2+153
Tyler Austin, 1B (MIL): 2+150  
Keynan Middleton, RHP (LAA): 2+150
Jharel Cotton, RHP (OAK): 2+149
Kyle Freeland, LHP (COL): 2+143
J. T. Riddle, INF (MIA): 2+141
Noe Ramirez, RHP (LAA): 2+139
Kyle Ryan, LHP (CUBS): 2+139
Johan Camargo, INF (ATL): 2++137
Chris Martin, RHP (ATL): 2+133
Daniel Robertson, INF (TB): 2+133
Luis Cessa, RHP (NYY): 2+131
Dinelson Lamet, RHP (SD): 2+130
Paul DeJong, INF (STL): 2+127
Gio Urshela, INF (NYY): 2+127
Derek Law, RHP (TOR): 2+126  
JaCoby Jones, OF (DET): 2+125
A. J. Cole, RHP (CLE): 2+124  
Jonathan Holder, RHP (NYY): 2+124
Julio Urias, RHP (LAD): 2+123
Josh Hader, LHP (MIL): 2+115
++++++++++++++++++++++
PROJECTED SUPER TWO CUT-OFF - 2+115
++++++++++++++++++++++
Sean Newcomb, LHP (ATL): 2+114 (see NOTE-2 below)
Tyler Olson, LHP (CLE): 2+114
Jake Barrett, RHP (NYY): 2+113
Luke Weaver, RHP (AZ): 2+112
Matt Chapman, 3B (OAK): 2+109

If it remains unchanged, 2+115 MLB Service Time would be the lowest "Super Two" threshold ever. 

Cody Bellinger, David Dahl, Johan Camargo, Paul DeJong, and Josh Hader won't have to worry, but for a number of the other players on the above list, "Super Two" ain't so super. In many cases, clubs will likely either release or non-tender the player rather than risk going to arbitration with them. 

There also is the matter of MLB Service Time reported for each player and how any change in MLB ST could ultimately affect the list. 

NOTE-1: Phillies back-up catcher Andrew Knapp is listed at most sites as having accrured 1+171 MLB ST (one day short of two full seasons) coming into the 2019 season, but Baseball Reference lists Knapp's post-2018 MLB ST as 2+000 (exactly two years), meaning if BR is correct Knapp will have accrued 3+000 MLB ST by the close of the 2019 MLB regular season and thus would be eligible for salary arbitration in the conventional way and so he would not be a "Super Two" player post-2019.

NOTE-2: Braves LHP Sean Newcomb was optioned to the minors on April 14th and then was recalled on May 4th, for what appeared to be either 19 or 20 days (depending whether Newcomb was optioned before or after the Braves game vs NYM on 4/14). If it was 19 days he gets credit for a "full season" and will have 2+114 MLB Service Time at the close of the MLB regular season, but if it was 20 days he will not get credit a for a "full season" and will end up with 2+108 MLB Service Time (well  below the "Super Two" threshold should it change a bit prior to the conclusion of the season). Were the Braves that prescient back in April-May to keep Newcomb in the minors just one more day (for at least twenty days) to reduce his MLB Service Time by a few days and reduce their post-2019 "Super Two" liability with respect to Newcomb? TBD (or then again, maybe not...).  

So both Sean Newcomb and Tyler Olson (both at 2+114 MLB ST) could become "Super Two" eligible if one of the 30 players presently on the list is removed, and it's also possible that Josh Hader could go under the threshold and not be "Super Two" eligible if the number of players who qualify as a "Super Two" is reduced from 30 to 29 because several players in the original group of 135 are dropped (which would affect the number of "Super Two" players).

Comments

One 2 women umps in MiLB worked the SB series. Pal of our son’s from LL days was SB clubhouse mgr. this year. He spoke highly of Emma’s work but said visiting teams often did not. Also spoke highly of B-Zo on his brief rehab stay when he bought the team McD’s, a la Prez Dollar Menu. So, 2 Cub branches made playoffs so far. Can the big Cubs make it 3?

Wtf were Bucs appealing?

I guess that Kemp missed a base? I really don’t know. 

zobrist or heyward missing a base...probably heyward, but it wasn't clear from the cubs broadcast.  kemp scored on the screwed up appeal throw.

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  • bradsbeard 9 hours 26 min ago (view)

    Angels also make sense as a destination for Kris Bryant. 

     

  • azbobbop 1 day 2 hours ago (view)

    I wonder if Maddon will take any of the coaches with him.

     

  • Arizona Phil 1 day 4 hours ago (view)

    I doubt that Maddon would have taken the job if the Angels aren't fully prepared to sign one or maybe even two FA TOR SP (like Gerrit Cole and/or Stephen Strasburg if he opts out). 

    When you have the best player in MLB and now the highest-paid manager, not making the playoffs again in 2020 just can't be acceptable. 

     

  • crunch 1 day 12 hours ago (view)

    HOU/NYY postponed.

     

  • crunch 1 day 16 hours ago (view)

    as expected, joe maddon to be the new manager of the angels.

    btw, it is unlikely tonight's HOU @ NYY (10/16) will happen because of rain that's going to start 3-4 hours before game time and carry well into the night.

     

  • crunch 2 days 3 hours ago (view)

    world series will be played in DC for the first time since 1933.  neat.

     

  • crunch 2 days 6 hours ago (view)

    and it's only getting worse...i mean, better.

    7 runs to pad out the 1st.

     

  • Craig A. 2 days 6 hours ago (view)

    Oof. Hudson leaves the game after giving up five runs on singles and doubles and only getting one out. 

     

  • Arizona Phil 2 days 10 hours ago (view)

    The thing about Kris Bryant is that he would probably be traded only to a club that feels that it under-achieved in 2019 and where the owner is exerting pressure from the top and who therefore will over-pay for two years of Kris Bryant. 

     

  • Charlie 2 days 15 hours ago (view)

    Yeah, it seems like I lean more toward overvaluing Bryant than most commenters here. Also, I completely stopped following prospect lists once the Cubs were good again, so I'm out of the loop on Pache especially. I had imagined that the Cubs would be looking more for immediate major league value rather than a projectable prospect, but I guess if you really like Pache you don't mind waiting a couple years.

     

  • K Dub 2 days 22 hours ago (view)

    PHIL: Excellent breakdown, Phil. Thanks. 

    I'm sure you heard. QO value was set at $17.8 million the day after you made your post.

     

  • K Dub 2 days 22 hours ago (view)

    Pache, Wright, Muller and Riley feels light to you, Charlie? I respect your opinion, but I would jump at it. I highly doubt the Braves would do it, though. Were talking 2 years of Bryant at what could be 18 million and 28-30 million in his last year of arbitration. 

    The Cubs would be hurting their chances next year and building for 2021 in a deal like that, but that's rebuilding/retooling in one fell swoop. 

     

  • Arizona Phil 5 days 2 hours ago (view)

    CHARLIE: Austin Riley is actually a third-baseman but he had to play LF for the Braves in 2019 because he was blocked by Josh Donaldson, and Cristian Pache is considered to be the best defensive centerfielder in the minors and his bat has improved enough over the past year or two to where he is now rated in or just outside the top ten overall prospects in MLB.

    So a package that includes Riley and Pache and one of the Braves young MLB or MLB-ready SP would probably be more than enough to get the Cubs to bite.

     

  • Dolorous Jon Lester 5 days 5 hours ago (view)

    Max Fried or Bryse Wilson

     

  • crunch 5 days 5 hours ago (view)

    https://www.espn.com/espn/otl/story/_/id/27828247/...

    t.skaggs story keeps getting deeper.

    allegations the team knew about skagg's drug abuse (also his family).  teams are required to report this to MLB.

     

  • Charlie 5 days 8 hours ago (view)

    Except for the headline, the linked post reads more like a trade hypothetical than a trade rumor. I like the idea of looking at this package as a discussion point for expected return for Bryant. I would say it feels a little light to me. It's deep, with two decent outfield prospects with upside and two OK pitching prospects. But Riley doesn't help the team solve the CF problem right now, so he's either redundant to Bote or sort of a Schwarber replacement. Muller's inflated BB% at AA this year worries me a bit too.