Projected Post-2019 MLB "Super Two" Players
An unsigned player under club control who has accrued at least three but less than six years of MLB Service Time is automatically eligible for salary arbitration.
Also, any unsigned player with at least two years but less than three years of MLB Service Time who accrued at least 86 days of MLB Service Time during the previous season can qualify for salary arbitration as a so-called "Super Two" if the player is among the top 22% in MLB Service Time of players in that group (rounded to the nearest whole number). And if two or more players are tied with the same MLB Service Time just above the "Super Two" threshold, all of the players with that accrued MLB ST would get "Super Two" status even if that means the number of players with "Super Two" status exceeds 22%.
Because it is based on a percentage, the "Super Two" threshold fluctuates from year-to-year (it was two years plus 134 days or 2+134 MLB ST post-2018, 2+123 post-2017, 2+131 post-2016, 2+130 post-2015, 2+133 post-2014, 2+122 post-2013, 2+140 post-2012, 2+145 post-2011, 2+122 in 2010, and 2+139 in 2009), but the threshold has generally gone down whenever a new CBA is signed, because the percentage of players who automatically qualify for "Super Two" status has increased with each new CBA.
Besides gaining the right to request salary arbitration and have that right four times instead of just three times, being a "Super Two" player also means the player can elect free-agency if outrighted even though he has not yet accrued three years of MLB Service Time and even if he has not been outrighted previously in his career (however, unlike a player who has accrued at least three years of MLB Service Time and/or has been outrighted previously in his career and who therefore has the option to elect free-agency immediately or else defer the choice until after the conclusion of the MLB regular season, a "Super Two ' player who has not been outrighted previously in his career must make his choice immediately upon being outrighted).
At present there are 136 players on MLB rosters who are projected to fit the criteria of a player who has accrued at least two years but less than three years of MLB Service Time with at least 86 days of MLB Service Time accrued in the 2019. So that means that 22% of the 136 (29.92 rounded to the nearest whole number, which is 30) will have "Super Two" status post-2019. However, sometimes a player petitions (successfully) to have his listed MLB Service Time adjusted (like due to an injury that occurred before the player was optioned to the minors, or because a player was optioned prior to game time or after the start of a game, both of which would impact the player's service time and thus could impact the number of players who are in the macro group and how many of the players in the group acquire "Super Two" status).
Here is the list of MLB players who are presently projected to be eligible for salary arbitration as a "Super Two" post-2019. This list is preliminary because the MLB regular season is still in progress, but since players are essentially no longer being optioned to the minors (a player cannot be optioned to the minors once a minor league club's season has concluded), the list should be fairly accurate. NOTE: Per the 2016-21 CBA, an MLB regular season ("championship season") must be at least 182 days but no more than 187 days in length, but 172 days constitutes a "full" MLB regular season when calculating MLB Service Time, and so a player cannot get credit for more than 172 days of MLB Service Time in any one season.
POST-2019 MLB SUPER TWO ARBITRATION ELIGIBLE
Andrew Knapp, C (PHI): 2+171 (see NOTE-1 below)
Wandy Peralta, LHP (SF): 2+167
Jesse Biddle, LHP (TEX): 2+166
Hunter Renfroe, OF (SD): 2+165
David Hale, RHP (NYY): 2+163
David Dahl, OF (COL): 2+162
Brent Suter, LHP (MIL): 2+161
Cody Bellinger, OF-1B (LAD): 2+160
Tyler Glasnow, RHP (TB): 2+158
Jordan Montgomery, LHP (NYY): 2+153
Tyler Austin, 1B (MIL): 2+150
Keynan Middleton, RHP (LAA): 2+150
Jharel Cotton, RHP (OAK): 2+149
Kyle Freeland, LHP (COL): 2+143
J. T. Riddle, INF (MIA): 2+141
Noe Ramirez, RHP (LAA): 2+139
Kyle Ryan, LHP (CUBS): 2+139
Johan Camargo, INF (ATL): 2++137
Chris Martin, RHP (ATL): 2+133
Daniel Robertson, INF (TB): 2+133
Luis Cessa, RHP (NYY): 2+131
Dinelson Lamet, RHP (SD): 2+130
Paul DeJong, INF (STL): 2+127
Gio Urshela, INF (NYY): 2+127
Derek Law, RHP (TOR): 2+126
JaCoby Jones, OF (DET): 2+125
A. J. Cole, RHP (CLE): 2+124
Jonathan Holder, RHP (NYY): 2+124
Julio Urias, RHP (LAD): 2+123
Josh Hader, LHP (MIL): 2+115
PROJECTED SUPER TWO CUT-OFF - 2+115
Sean Newcomb, LHP (ATL): 2+114 (see NOTE-2 below)
Tyler Olson, LHP (CLE): 2+114
Jake Barrett, RHP (NYY): 2+113
Luke Weaver, RHP (AZ): 2+112
Matt Chapman, 3B (OAK): 2+109
If it remains unchanged, 2+115 MLB Service Time would be the lowest "Super Two" threshold ever.
Cody Bellinger, David Dahl, Johan Camargo, Paul DeJong, and Josh Hader won't have to worry, but for a number of the other players on the above list, "Super Two" ain't so super. In many cases, clubs will likely either release or non-tender the player rather than risk going to arbitration with them.
There also is the matter of MLB Service Time reported for each player and how any change in MLB ST could ultimately affect the list.
NOTE-1: Phillies back-up catcher Andrew Knapp is listed at most sites as having accrured 1+171 MLB ST (one day short of two full seasons) coming into the 2019 season, but Baseball Reference lists Knapp's post-2018 MLB ST as 2+000 (exactly two years), meaning if BR is correct Knapp will have accrued 3+000 MLB ST by the close of the 2019 MLB regular season and thus would be eligible for salary arbitration in the conventional way and so he would not be a "Super Two" player post-2019.
NOTE-2: Braves LHP Sean Newcomb was optioned to the minors on April 14th and then was recalled on May 4th, for what appeared to be either 19 or 20 days (depending whether Newcomb was optioned before or after the Braves game vs NYM on 4/14). If it was 19 days he gets credit for a "full season" and will have 2+114 MLB Service Time at the close of the MLB regular season, but if it was 20 days he will not get credit a for a "full season" and will end up with 2+108 MLB Service Time (well below the "Super Two" threshold should it change a bit prior to the conclusion of the season). Were the Braves that prescient back in April-May to keep Newcomb in the minors just one more day (for at least twenty days) to reduce his MLB Service Time by a few days and reduce their post-2019 "Super Two" liability with respect to Newcomb? TBD (or then again, maybe not...).
So both Sean Newcomb and Tyler Olson (both at 2+114 MLB ST) could become "Super Two" eligible if one of the 30 players presently on the list is removed, and it's also possible that Josh Hader could go under the threshold and not be "Super Two" eligible if the number of players who qualify as a "Super Two" is reduced from 30 to 29 because several players in the original group of 135 are dropped (which would affect the number of "Super Two" players).
bradsbeard 1 day 3 hours ago (view)
International Scouting Director Louie Eljaua was just on The Score and he mentioned that COVID is causing issues with completing physicals and officially signing guys, but he said they have 24 guys unufficially signed right now.
KingKongvsGodzilla 1 day 4 hours ago (view)
These guys are a year apart in age and Miller's easily had the stronger career to date. While I'm not big on Miller, much prefer his more standard injury (TJ) than whatever it is that sapped Foltynewicz's velocity. Folty without velocity just isn't interesting and is likely a much bigger injury risk
Cubster 1 day 4 hours ago (view)
from an mlb.com article by Jordan Bastian...excerpt on Cubs free agent starting pitching options:
"Still, the Cubs need some more experienced Major League innings.
Given the way the offseason has played out for the North Siders, free-agent possibilities could include Chris Archer. Archer missed all of 2020 due to thoracic outlet syndrome, but he hopes to be ready to go by Spring Training. Free agents Mike Foltynewicz, Carlos Rodón, Rick Porcello and Trevor Williams are coming off forgettable '20 seasons but might benefit from the Cubs' analytics team.
Charlie 1 day 22 hours ago (view)
At this rate, they will need 11 starters in 2021 but like 6 of them will be more or less Alec Mills. The defense will get plenty of practice, at least.
crunch 2 days 1 hour ago (view)
i wouldn't be surprised to see jake arrieta come on board since no one else seems to want him and he'll probably have to take a 1yr deal...
crunch 2 days 1 hour ago (view)
cubs get their backup catcher...hopefully not their main catcher...
austin romine 1yr/1.5m
Dolorous Jon Lester 2 days 2 hours ago (view)
Look no further than Shelby Miller!
crunch 2 days 3 hours ago (view)
hank aaron has died. passed away in his sleep.
we've lost a lot of HOF'rs and other notables in the past many months.
Hagsag 2 days 8 hours ago (view)
The Cubs are now the "Little Sisters of the Poor".
crunch 2 days 15 hours ago (view)
given what little we're supposed to expect out of this offseason that would have been a nice gamble.
at this point i wonder if they're going to snag someone to put in between the 2 current staff aces that throw 88mph on a good day, or if they're just gonna toss one of the kids in there to break up the slow-tossers.
i mean, there's gotta be something more than hendricks/davies/mills/alzolay/???...i hope.
springs 2 days 16 hours ago (view)
That sucks...I wanted to sign Q to a one year deal and see if he could right the ship. At a minimum I hoped we'd get a draft pick when he left as a free agent and thought we could roll the dice to try and get that. That trade....man.
crunch 2 days 19 hours ago (view)
bjays gave chatwood 3m.
do they not have scouts...or televisions you can watch games where he pitches?
Dolorous Jon Lester 3 days 16 hours ago (view)
Lame. He was intriguing
crunch 3 days 18 hours ago (view)
cubs release matt dermody...he's heading to japan.
Cubster 4 days 3 hours ago (view)
and they are including amusement tax, healthcare costs (Doc Adams doesn't come cheap!), social security and political donations to the City and the Governor of Nebraska.