Cubs vs. Reds: Series Thread (Games 150-152)
The Cubs swept the Pirates at home and will aim to provide just that sort of treatment now to the Reds as they come into town. They'll have to continue to do their work without Javy and now Rizzo too will be unavailable. No word yet, as far as I can tell, about when Russell might become available again--but fans are generally pleased with Hoerner's first MLB stint anyway. The Cubs now trail the Cardinals by only 2.0 games in the division and the Nats by 1.5 in the Wild Card. The Brewers remain hot on their heels, despite the recent loss of Yelich, while the Mets, Phillies, and D-Backs have dropped back to likely also-ran positions. Don't expect the Reds to be a walk in the park, but the Cubs will at least dodge Luis Castillo. Continue below for the match-ups.
Game 150, Monday, Sep. 16, 7:05pmCDT
CHC: LHP Cole Hamels (7-7, 3.89 ERA)
CIN: RHP Kevin Gausman (3-8, 5.83 ERA)
Hamels worked an effective but inefficient 4.1 innings and took a loss to the Padres in his last start. He walked four and struck out six will allowing a solo homerun as the only scoring. He's 0-1 vs. Cincinnati this year, having been limited to four innings in two starts, both away from Wrigley. Perhaps the Friendly Confines will treat him a bit better.
Gausman came over from Atlanta after the trade deadline. The Reds have used him exclusively out of the bullpen, but they haven't used him on consecutive days and they over turn to him for more than one inning of work. He took a loss to the Cubs in his first appearance with the Reds, allowing two earned runs in two innings on August 8th. Castellanos is 4-15 with two homeruns off of him, and Zobrist is 8-13 with four doubles and a homerun.
Game 151, Tuesday, Sep. 17, 7:05pmCDT
CHC: RHP Yu Darvish (6-6, 3.97 ERA)
CIN: RHP Sonny Gray (10-7, 2.80 ERA)
Darvish built on his impressive second half by going collecting fourteen strikeouts (compared to two walks) in six innings for a win in San Diego. He lost in Cincinnati on August 9th, allowing four earned runs in six innings, getting hurt especially by three homeruns.
Gray took a loss in Seattle, providing 6.1 innings and allowing three earned runs. He struck out nine along the way and probably deserved better. He's provided 6+ innings in each of his last five starts. He's 2-1 against the Cubs in four starts this year, allowing seven earned runs in 23.1 innings pitched and striking out 28. Zobrist is 4-7 off of him and Castellanos 3-9, the closest to any thriving Cubs one can find in the match-up stats sheet.
Game 152, Wednesday, Sep. 18, 7:05pmCDT
CHC: LHP Jon Lester (13-10, 4.59 ERA)
CIN: RHP Tyler Mahle (2-11, 5.11 ERA)
Lester labored through unfavorable pitching conditions to earn a win against the Pirates despite allowing seven runs, four earned, in five innings. He's had a ton of traffic of late, allowing 24 walks and 56 hits in 46.2 innings since the beginning of August, for a WHIP slightly over 1.7. He's somehow managed to go 4-4 in those nine starts. The Reds have feasted on him for a .825 OPS in 200 at-bats. Eugenio Suarez has done much of that damage, going 14-39 with five homeruns and generally disrespecting his elder.
Mahle got a no-decision in his last start, in which he allowed four earned runs in 3.1 innings pitched against Seattle. He's been plagued by the long-ball in 2019, allowing 1.7 homeruns per nine innings. His other peripherals should give Reds fans some room for hope, particularly his 9.28 strikeouts to 2.24 walks per nine. Schwarber is 4-10 with a homer off of him, but it's been feast or famine as he's also struck out five times.
Meanwhile, the Cards and Nats face off in St. Louis, so it's on the Cubs to win in order to gain ground on one or the other any given day. The Brewers will be taking on the Padres in Milwaukee.
Charlie 1 hour 23 min ago (view)
What's that, crunch? Kris Bryant for Robinson Canoe? Bold call!
George Altman 3 hours 46 min ago (view)
Phil, you used to put out a Top 10 or 20 Prospect list around the end of the AFL. Sometimes you would update mid year if trades or draft warranted. This is not false praise...your lists were more impactful than BA, MLB, BP to me, let alone the Cubs fan board lists. Today, the only thing I give any credence to are your evaluations and Fan Graphs Top 40. If the evaluator has only watched video then, hell, I can watch video.
crunch 7 hours 24 min ago (view)
there is no way the 2-3 guys that created most of those cubs reports have seen much more than youtube video footage as far as "live" scouting.
they seem very dedicated and eager, but there are some questionable things in their scouting reports.
Wrigley Rat 8 hours 9 min ago (view)
I'd REALLY enjoy reading Phil's list with scouting reports!!! I'd definitely trust his ratings more than most!
Here is what the ProspectsLive.com website says about seeing the players: "Our evaluation team has spent countless hours filling these boards with highly in-depth scouting reports from live looks and film study."
Either way, in my opinion, it's good to read other people's evaluations, even when they vary from our own. It gets us thinking about how confident we are in our valuations and how much we're willing to modify them based on other people's reports!
Hagsag 9 hours 49 min ago (view)
Phil, I am sure you could put together a more realistic list.
Arizona Phil 10 hours 16 sec ago (view)
No offense intended, but did anybody at this site actually see these guys play?
Chase Strumpf has only "40" power?!! Andy Weber even has more power than Strumpf? Seriously? Strumpf actually has plus-power. In fact, HR power is his #1 attribute. His power tool is probably at least "60" (maybe "65").
Both Ronnier Quintero and Aramis Ademan are "45" run? Really? Ademan has average speed ("50"), and Quintero is Miguel Montero 2.0. His run tool is probably "30" (on a good day). Quintero's plus raw tools are arm and power.
Hagsag 14 hours 58 min ago (view)
Thanks for the info.
Wrigley Rat 1 day 1 hour ago (view)
I just discovered this site: https://www.prospectslive.com/lists/2020/11/16/chi... (Sorry if you all know about it already!). 52 Cubs prospects listed with scouting reports! Really enjoying this one! :)
crunch 1 day 2 hours ago (view)
we all knew trades were coming...getting rid of 1-2 of the core, but at this point i wonder how much (if any) of that free'd up loot is going back into the team.
Charlie 1 day 4 hours ago (view)
He clearly did not want to be remembered for selling off the core and then walking away from the team a year later. Can't blame him.
crunch 1 day 5 hours ago (view)
every other contender is full of rumor news for who they'll sign...and the hot cubs rumor is kris bryant won't be traded before the wednesday arb offer deadline. wee.
Arizona Phil 1 day 8 hours ago (view)
jdrnym: The MLB contracts that are tendered on 12/2 via Central Tender Letter are are non-guaranteed contacts.
And a player signed to a non-guaranteed contract who is released prior to MLB Opening Day receives 30 days salary (paid at the minor league rate for players with split contracts) if the player is released more than 15 days prior to Opening Day, or 45 days salary (paid at the MLB rate for players signed to split contracts) if the player is released 15 or fewer days prior to Opening Day as termination pay.
jdrnym 1 day 10 hours ago (view)
If a player signs one of those deals that allows a split salary or incentives to be included, does that get treated like an arbitration salary in that it's only partially guaranteed until Opening Day?
bradsbeard 4 days 20 hours ago (view)
Great info. Thanks!
Arizona Phil 4 days 20 hours ago (view)
BRADSBEARD: What happens on 12/2 is each club submits what's called a "Central Tender Letter" to the MLB LRD listing which unsigned players on the club's MLB Reserve List (40-man roster) are being tendered a contract and which unsigned players are not being tendered a contract.
The CTL is sufficient as far as providing proof of contract tender.
For players being tendered contracts, the CTL must list the club's MLB salary offer, a minor league split salary offer (if the club so chooses), and performance bonuses (if any) the club is offering to the player.
crunch 5 days 5 hours ago (view)
theo walked away from a big payday for an executive in his last season as a cub without having another job scoped out...and according to him he's not even looking one.
something tells me this isn't going to be a fun off-season for cubs fans.
the state of the cubs household aside, i wouldn't exactly be shocked to see theo with the mets, though he's supposedly not on their radar at the moment.