Cubs vs. Reds: Series Thread (Games 150-152)
The Cubs swept the Pirates at home and will aim to provide just that sort of treatment now to the Reds as they come into town. They'll have to continue to do their work without Javy and now Rizzo too will be unavailable. No word yet, as far as I can tell, about when Russell might become available again--but fans are generally pleased with Hoerner's first MLB stint anyway. The Cubs now trail the Cardinals by only 2.0 games in the division and the Nats by 1.5 in the Wild Card. The Brewers remain hot on their heels, despite the recent loss of Yelich, while the Mets, Phillies, and D-Backs have dropped back to likely also-ran positions. Don't expect the Reds to be a walk in the park, but the Cubs will at least dodge Luis Castillo. Continue below for the match-ups.
Game 150, Monday, Sep. 16, 7:05pmCDT
CHC: LHP Cole Hamels (7-7, 3.89 ERA)
CIN: RHP Kevin Gausman (3-8, 5.83 ERA)
Hamels worked an effective but inefficient 4.1 innings and took a loss to the Padres in his last start. He walked four and struck out six will allowing a solo homerun as the only scoring. He's 0-1 vs. Cincinnati this year, having been limited to four innings in two starts, both away from Wrigley. Perhaps the Friendly Confines will treat him a bit better.
Gausman came over from Atlanta after the trade deadline. The Reds have used him exclusively out of the bullpen, but they haven't used him on consecutive days and they over turn to him for more than one inning of work. He took a loss to the Cubs in his first appearance with the Reds, allowing two earned runs in two innings on August 8th. Castellanos is 4-15 with two homeruns off of him, and Zobrist is 8-13 with four doubles and a homerun.
Game 151, Tuesday, Sep. 17, 7:05pmCDT
CHC: RHP Yu Darvish (6-6, 3.97 ERA)
CIN: RHP Sonny Gray (10-7, 2.80 ERA)
Darvish built on his impressive second half by going collecting fourteen strikeouts (compared to two walks) in six innings for a win in San Diego. He lost in Cincinnati on August 9th, allowing four earned runs in six innings, getting hurt especially by three homeruns.
Gray took a loss in Seattle, providing 6.1 innings and allowing three earned runs. He struck out nine along the way and probably deserved better. He's provided 6+ innings in each of his last five starts. He's 2-1 against the Cubs in four starts this year, allowing seven earned runs in 23.1 innings pitched and striking out 28. Zobrist is 4-7 off of him and Castellanos 3-9, the closest to any thriving Cubs one can find in the match-up stats sheet.
Game 152, Wednesday, Sep. 18, 7:05pmCDT
CHC: LHP Jon Lester (13-10, 4.59 ERA)
CIN: RHP Tyler Mahle (2-11, 5.11 ERA)
Lester labored through unfavorable pitching conditions to earn a win against the Pirates despite allowing seven runs, four earned, in five innings. He's had a ton of traffic of late, allowing 24 walks and 56 hits in 46.2 innings since the beginning of August, for a WHIP slightly over 1.7. He's somehow managed to go 4-4 in those nine starts. The Reds have feasted on him for a .825 OPS in 200 at-bats. Eugenio Suarez has done much of that damage, going 14-39 with five homeruns and generally disrespecting his elder.
Mahle got a no-decision in his last start, in which he allowed four earned runs in 3.1 innings pitched against Seattle. He's been plagued by the long-ball in 2019, allowing 1.7 homeruns per nine innings. His other peripherals should give Reds fans some room for hope, particularly his 9.28 strikeouts to 2.24 walks per nine. Schwarber is 4-10 with a homer off of him, but it's been feast or famine as he's also struck out five times.
Meanwhile, the Cards and Nats face off in St. Louis, so it's on the Cubs to win in order to gain ground on one or the other any given day. The Brewers will be taking on the Padres in Milwaukee.
Charlie 2 hours 51 min ago (view)
Yeah, it seems like I lean more toward overvaluing Bryant than most commenters here. Also, I completely stopped following prospect lists once the Cubs were good again, so I'm out of the loop on Pache especially. I had imagined that the Cubs would be looking more for immediate major league value rather than a projectable prospect, but I guess if you really like Pache you don't mind waiting a couple years.
K Dub 9 hours 35 min ago (view)
PHIL: Excellent breakdown, Phil. Thanks.
I'm sure you heard. QO value was set at $17.8 million the day after you made your post.
K Dub 9 hours 43 min ago (view)
Pache, Wright, Muller and Riley feels light to you, Charlie? I respect your opinion, but I would jump at it. I highly doubt the Braves would do it, though. Were talking 2 years of Bryant at what could be 18 million and 28-30 million in his last year of arbitration.
The Cubs would be hurting their chances next year and building for 2021 in a deal like that, but that's rebuilding/retooling in one fell swoop.
Arizona Phil 2 days 13 hours ago (view)
CHARLIE: Austin Riley is actually a third-baseman but he had to play LF for the Braves in 2019 because he was blocked by Josh Donaldson, and Cristian Pache is considered to be the best defensive centerfielder in the minors and his bat has improved enough over the past year or two to where he is now rated in or just outside the top ten overall prospects in MLB.
So a package that includes Riley and Pache and one of the Braves young MLB or MLB-ready SP would probably be more than enough to get the Cubs to bite.
Dolorous Jon Lester 2 days 16 hours ago (view)
Max Fried or Bryse Wilson
crunch 2 days 17 hours ago (view)
t.skaggs story keeps getting deeper.
allegations the team knew about skagg's drug abuse (also his family). teams are required to report this to MLB.
Charlie 2 days 19 hours ago (view)
Except for the headline, the linked post reads more like a trade hypothetical than a trade rumor. I like the idea of looking at this package as a discussion point for expected return for Bryant. I would say it feels a little light to me. It's deep, with two decent outfield prospects with upside and two OK pitching prospects. But Riley doesn't help the team solve the CF problem right now, so he's either redundant to Bote or sort of a Schwarber replacement. Muller's inflated BB% at AA this year worries me a bit too.
crunch 4 days 16 hours ago (view)
they get 3 guys and the cubs get 1 guy. sounds like a slam dunk for the angels. pencil trout in the cubs lineup. he's got upside.
Jackstraw 4 days 18 hours ago (view)
I'd hate to part with both Kemp and Chatwood, but if it will bring that Trout guy back, we could even throw in Almora.
crunch 4 days 21 hours ago (view)
the ricketts got a brazillian dollar tax break...they need to trickle that down and flex on the entire league.
we gonna get grandal, rendon, castellanos, g.cole, strasburg, ryu, a.chapman...maybe sign bumgarner and odorizzi to work the pen.
Arizona Phil 4 days 21 hours ago (view)
CHARLIE: If the Cubs trade Quintana and his new club pays 100% of his 2020 salary his new club assumes 100% of his salary AAV liability, but if the Cubs agree to pay a portion of Quintana's 2020 salary as part of the trade, whatever portion of Quintana's 2020 salary that is paid by the Cubs would count against the Cubs 2020 AAV.
Charlie 4 days 22 hours ago (view)
PHIL: Thanks for that Boston context--I hadn't realized the trend there. If the Cubs did decide to pick up Quintana's option and then trade him (assuming the Cubs would not agree to pay part of the contract as part of the trade), do they have to do that by a certain date in order for Quintana's contract not to count against them for the CBT? I haven't been able to find any dates attached to the CBT in a quick internet search.
Arizona Phil 4 days 23 hours ago (view)
My presumption in the Cubs declining Jose Quintana's 2020 club option as well as declining the club options on the veteran relievers who have one and non-tendering Addison Russell (and this also applies to Joe Maddon not returning as manager in 2020) is that after the monumental late-September collapse of 2019 on the heels of the 2018 Game #163 and Wild Card game defeats Ricketts will no longer accept the Cubs payroll going over the CBT threshold ($208M AAV in 2020) or extending a manager making $5M a year.
crunch 5 days 4 hours ago (view)
i actually like ATL the team...the fans and the 3+ hours of tommy hawk chawpin' non-stop is beyond annoying before even getting into how messed up it is they're still doing that in 2019. it's all they do, just that 1 single thing...for hours...
fans were so upset about not getting foam hatchets pre-game yesterday (that was the club's way to "dial it back") they were busy letting the "PC police" know they're here to chant and chop as loud as they could before the first pitch was even thrown.
it took about 10 runs to shut them up.
Dolorous Jon Lester 5 days 18 hours ago (view)
Damn. Atlanta was the only team in the NL I was hoping would advance. I don’t know what I was hoping in LA vs WAS series. Cataclysmic event? (Side note, I live in the DC area, what a dreadful group of fans. They deserve nothing good ever.)