Projected Cubs Post-2019 World Series Roster

As things stand right now.... 


POST-2019 DEADLINES

Any player on an MLB Reserve List (40-man roster) who is released during the period of time beginning on September 1st up until the first day of Spring Training cannot be re-signed by the same club to a major league contract and cannot be placed back on that club's MLB 40-man roster until May 15th.  

Any 2019 outrighted Article XX-D minor league player who elected to defer free-agency until after the conclusion of the MLB regular season and who was not subsequently added back to an MLB Reserve List (40-man roster) prior to the conclusion of the MLB regular season or who did not sign a 2020 minor league successor contract can file for free-agency beginning at 9 AM on the day after the final game of the MLB regular season up through October 15th. 1B-OF Jim Adduci was the only Cubs 2019 Article XX-D outrighted player, and he filed for free-agency at his first opportunity (9/30). Once he becomes a free-agent, the player can sign a major league or minor league contract with any club (including the player's former organzation), and the player's former club receives no compensation if the player signs elsewhere.  

An unsigned Article XX-D player who is sent outright to the minors after the conclusion of the MLB regular season and prior to being tendered a major league contract or prior to signing a tendered major league contract can elect free-agency immediately. 

Any unsigned Article XX-B player on an MLB 40-man roster is automatically declared a free-agent at 9 AM on the day after the final game of World Series. The player does not have to file. It's automatic.  

Over the five days after the final game of the World Series, 2020 club and/or player contract options for MLB players with Article XX-B rights must be exercised and/or declined by the deadline as stated in the contract, but all contract options must be decided by 5 PM Eastern on the 5th day after the final game of the World Series.   

MLB clubs must decide by 5 PM Eastern on the 5th day after the final game of the World Series whether to extend a Qualifying Offer to an MLB Article XX-B free-agent who is eligible to receive a QO. Any player who received a QO previously in his career and/or any player who did not spend the entire previous season with that MLB organization (including the MLB club and/or a minor league affiliate or affiliates) cannot be extended a QO. Players who are extended a QO have ten days to decide whether to accept or decline the QO. 

Any Article XX-B MLB free-agent who signs a major league contract after 11:59 PM on the 5th day after the final game of the World Series receives an automatic "no trade" right through June 15th. 

Any minor leaguer eligible to be an MLB Rule 55 second-contract free-agent or 6YFA who is not added to an MLB 40-man roster or who has not signed a 2020 minor league successor contract will be automatically declared a free-agent at 5 PM Eastern on 5th day after final game of World Series. Once declared a free-agent, the player can sign a major league or minor league contract with any club (including the player's former organization). 

Minor league players eligible for selection in the 2019 Rule 5 Draft must be added to an MLB Reserve List (40-man roster) no later than November 20th to be draft-excluded. Any Rule 5 Draft-eligible free-agent who signs a minor league contract prior to the Rule 5 Draft is eligible for selection. 

2020 contracts must be tendered to unsigned MLB players under club control no later than December 2nd (the deadline was November 30th last year only because 12/2 fell on a Sunday). If an unsigned MLB player under club control is not tendered a contract, the player becomes a free-agent and is free to sign a major league or minor league contract with any club (including the club that non-tendered the player). Non-tendering a player allows a club to cut a player's salary more than the maximum allowable 20% and eliminates a player's right to request salary arbitration, although once non-tendered the player can sign with any club without restriction and the player's former club receives no compensation if the player signs elsewhere. A non-tender also allows a club to remove a Draft-Excluded or unsigned Rule 55 player from its MLB 40-man roster who otherwise cannot be removed by Outright Assignment during the off-season, and to avoid the possibility that a player on the 40 that the club wishes to retain in the minor leagues could be claimed off waivers.     


+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ 


PROJECTED CUBS POST-2019 WORLD SERIES MLB RESERVE LIST:  

32 players (plus probably at least four minor league 6YFA and/or Rule 5 Draft eligible players -- see below) 

* bats or throws left 
# bats both

PITCHERS: 17

Adbert Alzolay (auto-renewal...  Alzolay will have one minor league option left in 2020)
NOTE: Alzolay is a Rule 55 player so he cannot be sent outright to minors after 5 PM Eastern on 5th day after final game of World Series or until he signs 2020 contract 

Tyler Chatwood
($13M in 2020 then free-agent post-2020) 
NOTE: Chatwood cannot be sent to minors without his consent

Yu Darvish ($84M 2020-23 but can opt-out with no termination pay after 2019 World Series ... Cubs will almost certainly extend an Article XX-B Qualifying Offer if Darvish opts-out)
NOTE: Darvish full "no trade" expires after 2019 World Series and then he has partial "no trade" (must designate 12 clubs to which he cannot be traded) until he becomes a 10/5 player and gets a full "no trade" rights post-2022... also, salary escalates $2M in all subsequent seasons if he wins a Cy Young Award or $1M in all subsequent seasons anytime he finishes #2-5 in Cy Young

Kendall Graveman
($3M 2020 club option with no buy-out required if option is declined... Graveman will have one minor league option left in 2020)
NOTE: Graveman has a clause in his contract that requires Cubs to either release or non-tender him if 2020 club option is declined... can elect free-agency if he is outrighted to minors

Kyle Hendricks ($54M 2020-23 plus $16M vesting option in 2024 if Top 3 Cy Young in 2020 or else $16M 2024 club option with $1.5M buy-out)
NOTE: Hendricks also has $3M per season salary escalator if he finished Top 10 Cy Young in any season prior to 2024  

* Danny Hultzen (Draft-Excluded Player... auto-renewal... Hultzen is out of minor league options)
NOTE: If Outright Assignment Waivers are not requested by the 5th day after the final game of the World Series a Draft-Excluded player cannot be outrighted until 20 days prior to MLB Opening Day, plus Hultzen also has right to elect free-agency if outrighted because he has been outrighted previously in his career

Craig Kimbrel ($16M 2020-21 and $16M vesting option or else club option in 2022)
NOTE: Kimbrel 2022 vesting option activates if at least 110 GF 2020-21 and at least 55 GF in 2021, otherwise $16M 2022 club option with $1M buy-out or $2M buy-out if at least 53 GF in 2021 or $3M buy-out if at least 53 GF in both 2020-21, plus full "no trade" expires on 10-30-2019 and then Kimbrel must designate eight clubs to which he will not accept a trade

* Jon Lester ($15M salary in 2020 plus $2.5M signing bonus payment due on 12-31-2019 and $10M final signing bonus payment due next 9/15, and a $25M 2021 vesting option if 200 IP in 2020 (possible, although he hasn't thrown 200 IP since 2016) or 400 IP 2019-20 (which won't happen) or else a $25M 2021 mutual option with a $10M buy-out if 2021 club option is declined
NOTE: Lester has 10/5 full "no trade" rights

Dillon Maples
(auto-renewal... Maples will have one minor league option left in 2020)
NOTE: Maples is a Rule 55 player so he cannot be outrighted to minors after 5 PM Eastern on 5th day after final game of World Series or until he signs a 2020 contract

Alec Mills
(auto-renewal - Mills will have no minor league options left in 2020)
NOTE: Mills is a Rule 55 player so he cannot be outrighted to minors after 5 PM Eastern on 5th day after final game of World Series or until he signs a 2020 contract

James Norwood
(auto-renewal... Norwood will have one minor league option left in 2020)

* Kyle Ryan (will be eligible for salary arbitration as a "Super Two"... K. Ryan will have one minor league option left in 2020)
NOTE: K. Ryan has Article XX-D rights because he has been outrighted previously in his career and so he can elect free-agency if outrighted

* Justin Steele (auto-renewal... Steele will have two minor league options left in 2020)
NOTE: Because Steele did not accrue any MLB Service Time in 2019, he can be outrighted to minors even if he is injured up until 15 days prior to MLB Opening Day

Duane Underwood Jr (auto-renewal....Underwood will have no minor league options left in 2020
NOTE: Underwood is a Rule 55 player so he cannot be outrighted to minors after 5 PM Eastern on 5th day after final game of World Series or until he signs a 2020 contract

Allen Webster
(auto-renewal... Webster has no minor league options left)
NOTE: Webster is a Rule 55 player so he cannot be outrighted to minors after 5 PM Eastern on 5th day after final game of World Series or until he signs a 2020 contract - Webster is a likely 12/2 non-tender candidate and if he is non-tendered Cubs will probably try and re-sign him to a 2020 minor league contract after Rule 5 Draft 

Rowan Wick
(auto-renewal.... R. Wick will have one minor league option left in 2020)
NOTE: R. Wick has Article XX-D rights because he has been outrighted previously in his career and so he can elect free-agency if outrighted 

* Brad Wieck (auto-renewal... B. Wieck will have one minor league option left in 2020)


CATCHERS: 2  

# Victor Caratini (auto-renewal... Caratini will have two minor league options left in 2020... under club control through 2023) 
NOTE: Caratini is a Rule 55 player so he cannot be outrighted to minors after 5 PM Eastern on 5th day after final game of World Series or until he signs a 2020 contract 

Willson Contreras (1st time eligible for salary arbitration... under club control through 2022)

INFIELDERS: 9 

Javier Baez (2nd time eligible for salary arbitration - under club control through 2021 

David Bote ($13.5M through 2024 and $7M club option or $1M buy-out in 2025 and $7.6M club option or $1M buy-out in 2026... Bote will have two minor league options left in 2020)

Kris Bryant
(2nd time eligible for salary arbitration - under club control through 2021) 

* Daniel Descalso ($2.5M in 2020 and then $3.5M club option or else $1M buy-out in 2021) 
NOTE: Descalso will just get released and Cubs will eat balance of his contract if his 40-man roster slot is needed

# Robel Garcia (auto-renewal... R. Garcia will have two minor league options left in 2020)
NOTE: R. Garcia is a Rule 55 player so he cannot be outrighted to minors after 5 PM Eastern on 5th day after final game of World Series or until he signs a 2020 contract

Nico Hoerner
, INF (auto-renewal... Hoerner has four minor league options left because he will get a 4th minor league option in 2023)

* Tony Kemp (auto-renewal... Kemp has no minor league options left)
NOTE: Kemp is a Rule 55 player so he cannot be outrighted to minors after 5 PM Eastern on 5th day after final game of World Series or until he signs a 2020 contract

* Anthony Rizzo ($14.5M club option in both 2020 and 2021 or else $2M buy-out) 
NOTE: Rizzo may void 2021 club option if traded

Addison Russell
(2nd time eligible for salary arbitration... under club control through 2021... Russell will have two minor league options left in 2020
NOTE: Russell can elect free-agency if he is outrighted to minors... he is likely to be non-tendered if he isn't traded before 12/2


OUTFIELDERS: 4

Albert Almora (1st time eligible for salary arbitration... under club control through 2022... Almora will have two minor league options left in 2020
NOTE: Almora can elect free-agency if outrighted to minors

# Ian Happ (auto-renewal... Happ will have two minor league option left in 2020)

* Jason Heyward (gets $86M 2020-23... Heyward can opt-out after 2019 World Series and if he does his $20M deferred signing bonus must be paid in full on 4-1-2020  
NOTE: Heyward has partial "no trade" (must designate 12 clubs to which he cannot be traded) through 2020 MLB trade deadline then will have "10/5" full no trade rights beginning post-2020 

* Kyle Schwarber (2nd time eligible for salary arbitration... under club control through 2021... Schwarber will have three minor league options left in 2020
NOTE: Schwarber can elect free-agency if outrighted to minors

+++++++++++++++++++++++++

ARTICLE XX-B MLB FREE-AGENT (at 9 AM Eastern on day after final game of World Series): 13 

Tony Barnette, P (presently on Restricted List but 2020 $3M club option will be declined - no buy-out required

Nicholas Castellanos
, OF (not eligible to receive an Article XX-B Qualifying Offer)

* Xavier Cedeno, P 

Steve Cishek, P 

* Cole Hamels, p (given the way his season ended Cubs will almost certainly - NOT - extend an Article XX-B Qualifying Offer to Hamels

* Derek Holland, P ($6.5M 2020 club option will definitely not be exercised - no buy-out required)

Brandon Kintzler, P 

Jonathan Lucroy
, C 

Brandon Morrow, P ($12M vesting option will not apply & $12M club option will certainly be declined so $3M buy-out

* Jose Quintana, P ($10.5M club option will - PROBABLY - be declined after World Series so it will - PROBABLY - be a $1M buy-out if he isn't traded) 

David Phelps
, P ($5M 2020 club option plus $3M+ in potential performance bonuses will probably not be exercised - no buy-out required)

Pedro Strop, P 

# Ben Zobrist, INF  

NOTE
: The only free-agent the Cubs will likely attempt to re-sign is Nicholas Castellanos (and signing Castellanos would make it a lot easier for the Cubs to trade Kris Bryant), although the Cubs might offer a "first-come/first-served - take-it-or-leave-it" one-year contract with a low base salary plus modest performance bonuses to one or maybe two of their veteran FA relievers (Strop, Kintzler, Phelps, and/or Cishek).  



MINOR LEAGUERS LIKELY TO BE ADDED TO CUBS MLB 40-MAN ROSTER: 3-4 (possibly more) 
NOTE: Any of the following players who are added to the Cubs MLB 40-man roster would (like Danny Hultzen) have Draft-Excluded status and thus could not be sent (outrighted or optioned) to the minors until 20 days prior to MLB Opening Day, so the Cubs will need to estimate approximately how many roster slots they believe will be needed during the off-season for free-agents and waiver claims before they start adding any of the "on the bubble" guys to the 40. (It's better to lose a player in the Major League Phase of the Rule 5 Draft for $100,000 with the chance you might get him back because the claiming club can't keep the player on its 26-man active list for an entire season than to lose a player off waivers for $50,000 with the claiming club able -- in most cases -- to option the claimed player to the minors)

LOCK

Miguel Amaya
, C (Rule 5 Draft eligible)

VERY LIKELY

P. J. Higgins
, C-INF (Rule 5 Draft eligible)

Colin Rea
, P (2019 PCL Pitcher of the Year... eligible to be minor league 6YFA at 5 PM Eastern on 5th day after final game of World Series if he isn't added to the 40... Rea will have two minor league options left if added to the 40 making him potentially a very useful Des Moines - Chicago shuttle-rider in 2020-21) 

LIKELY

Tyson Miller
, P (Rule 5 Draft eligible) 

"ON THE BUBBLE" TO GET ADDED TO 40 (depending on how many 40-man roster slots are expected to remain open): ???  

Jhonny Pereda
, C (eligible to be minor league 6YFA at 5 PM Eastern on 5th day after final game of World Series)
NOTE: Projected as an MLB back-up catcher, Pereda could get added to the 40 even if he signs 2020 minor league successor contract, but his chances to get added to the 40 actually improve if he does NOT sign a successor contract

Zack Short
, SS (Rule 5 Draft eligible)
NOTE: Legit SS who is MLB-ready defensively but he will have to show improved bat in AFL to be considered for the 40 this year

Trent Giambrone
, INF-OF (Rule 5 Draft eligible)
NOTE: Legit MLB 2B or utility prospect but might not be MLB-ready... Giambrone's chances to get added to the 40 improve considerably if Pereda and Z. Short are not added

Oscar de la Cruz
, P (eligible to be minor league 6YFA at 5 PM Eastern on 5th day after final game of World Series)
NOTE: Cubs want to keep de la Cruz in the organization but not on the 40... so while he's already a long-shot to get added back to 40, ODLC will - NOT - get added back to 40 if he signs 2020 minor league successor contract

Trevor Clifton
, P (eligible to be minor league 6YFA at 5 PM Eastern on 5th day after final game of World Series)
NOTE: Like de la Cruz Clifton is a long-shot to get added to the 40... while the Cubs really don't want to use up a 40-man roster slot on Clifton they also would prefer not to lose him to minor league free-agency just yet, so (like de la Cruz) Clifton will - NOT - get added to 40 if he signs a 2020 minor league successor contract

* Jordan Minch, P (Rule 5 Draft eligible)
NOTE: Minch will have to pitch "lights out" in AFL to be considered for the 40 (and so far he has looked good but not great), and even then he might not get added

Matt Swarmer
, P (Rule 5 Draft-eligible)
NOTE: Swarmer is a default candidate to get added, meaning only if there's room on the 40 and most of the others "on the bubble" are passed over, and maybe not even then

Dakota Mekkes
, P (Rule 5 Draft eligible)
NOTE: Same as Swarmer only moreso

Comments

Phil is a fountain of knowledge.

Presuming the Quintana and the veteran relievers club options are declined, the Rizzo and Graveman club options are exercised, no free-agents are signed (very unlikely), Heyward and Darvish don't opt-out (Heyward won't but Darvish might if he knew he wouldn't get a QO), and arbitration-eligibles Bryant, Baez, Contreras, Schwarber, Almora, and K. Ryan ("Super Two") are tendered contracts but Russell is non-tendered (which should be about $55M aggregate AAV for arbitration-eligibles in 2020), the Cubs will be about $5M-$10M AAV under the 2020 CBT threshhold ($208M AAV) going into Spring Training.

And if Bryant is traded and only young MLB players and prospects are the return, that should reduce the Cubs 2020 payroll AAV by about an additional $15M-$18M, which would leave about $20M AAV available to spend on MLB additions (via trade or free-agency) in 2020 before the Cubs reach the CBT threshold. And that's how Nicholas Castellanos would get a multi-year deal. The Cubs trade Bryant for young MLB players (including at least one MLB-ready SP) and/or prospects and Castellanos gets what would have been Bryant's 2020 AAV salary plus a bit more (and not just for the one season but over several years). 

I talked to a couple of people in the know about a possible post-2019 Bryant trade, and figuring that the Diamondbacks return from STL in the Paul Goldschmidt trade (MLB-ready RHSP Luke Weaver, MLB-ready C Carson Kelly, and minor league prospect 2B Andy Young) would be a template for any potential Bryant trade (Bryant is two years away from free-agency which he will almost-certainly value & pursue as long as he remains a Boras client, while Goldschmidt was only one year away from free-agency but the Cards thought they could sign him to an extension before he hit free-agency, which they did), something like RHSP Dinelson Lamet (arbitration-eligible as a "Super Two" post-2019 but under club control through 2023), 2B-SS Luis Urias (under club control through 2025), and minor league RHSP Luis Patino (ready for AA in 2020 with a likely 2021 MLB ETA) from the Padres would be a possible return (Bryant would play corner OF for SD). 

i dunno if the cubs are up to dumping Q for $1m vs giving him $10.5m more to stick around for a single season.  there's already a lot riding on graveman/alzolay/mills/chatwood to fill ham's slot + pen long man without searching out someone to slot in.  if darvish opts out, that will be interesting.

that rough september didn't help Q's cause for sticking around, though...that was just awful.

also, colin rea...meh.  this is the kind of decision you hope a playoff contending team doesn't have to make for their roster because hopefully there's better things around to make it unneccesary.  i'm hoping they pass on him and look for another AAAA-type they can put off 40-man decisions on until 2020 gets underway. 

CRUNCH: The idea in the Cubs declining Quintana's 2020 $10.5M  club option ($1M buy-out) and thus saving $9.5M is the presumption that the Cubs will trade Kris Bryant this coming off-season for a package that includes a legit young MLB SP who would directly replace Quintana (I used the example of Dinelson Lamet if Bryant were to be traded to SD, but there are other possibilities on other clubs), and then apply the payroll saved from dumping Quintana ($9.5M payroll offset) and trading Bryant (who would be expected to get around $18M in 2020 via the arbitration process) to sign a FA RH-hitting lineup replacement for Bryant. 

The other way the Cubs could acquire a young SP would be to do what the Arizona Diamondbacks did at the trade deadline, which was to trade their #1 position-player prospect (SS Jazz Chisholm) to Miami for a young MLB SP (RHSP Zac Gallen).

So dumping Quintana would not occur in vacuum. It would also involve the Cubs acquiring a young MLB SP in a trade, either as part of the package the Cubs get back for Bryant, or in a trade where the Cubs exchange one of their top position player prospects (Miguel Amaya, Brennen Davis, or Nico Hoerner).for a young MLB SP like Zac Gallen (obviously not Gallen, but somebody like him).     

none of that would surprise me.  coming off a season where you don't make the playoffs is the perfect time to do it, too.  fans may hate the initial trade of bryant or some other popular core player, but almost all fans would agree that a shakeup (while retaining most of the core) is needed.

there seems to be a low-key "bryant or contreras" thing going with trade rumors early on.  either way, there's a lot pointing to the front office looking to do a high-end tallent exchange.

"Jon Morosi of MLB Network reports that Joe Maddon's interview with the Angels "went well" on Monday."

joe wants this (he spent decades in their organization coaching/managing/etc) and the angels want this.  unless SD decides to throw a bunch of money around for a manager this one is pretty much a done deal.

Will he bat Pujols first? 

ouch.

also, i wonder if tony kemp has a future with the team.

all that aside, i liked maddon's lineup management on whole...especially how he wasn't afraid to go with power in the 2/3/4 slot rather than avoiding putting top power in the 2 slot.  this is something some managers still avoid for some reason.

you can only go so far with his loved "let the slumping guy get some ABs up top" before you should bail on it, though...especially when you don't have wins/losses to spare.

via a p.mooney headline...

"As Cubs go ‘full speed ahead’ in search to replace Joe Maddon, Joe Espada is another name on the list"

HOU bench coach...so we may not hear about this for a few weeks if things go HOU's way...which they are not tonight...

Quintana at $10.5 MM is a valuable asset. He may not be a Cub next year but his option will,likely be exercised.

And you know this..........how?

I took azbobbop's comment as a statement on the $cost compared to Quintana's overall performance.

Edit: Follow-up, because it piqued my curiousity. Here are some pitchers sorted by annual pay in 2020 with some 2019 numbers:

  • $10M: Adam Wainwright: 171.2 IP, 4.19 ERA, 4.36 FIP
  • $10M: Tanner Roark: 165.1 IP, 4.35 ERA, 4.67 FIP
  • $10M: Anibal Sanchez: 166 IP, 3.85 ERA, 4.44 FIP
  • $10.5M: Jose Quintana: 171 IP, 4.68 ERA, 3.80 FIP
  • $11.16: Julio Teheran: 174.2 IP, 3.81 ERA, 4.66 FIP
  • $12M: Madison Bumgarner: 207.2 IP, 3.90 ERA, 3.90 FIP
  • $12.9M: Patrick Corbin: 202 IP, 3.25 ERA, 3.49 FIP
  • $13M: Trevor Bauer: 213 IP, 4.48 ERA, 4.34 FIP
  • $13.5M: Gerrit Cole: 212.1 IP, 2.50 ERA, 2.64 FIP
  • $14M: Alex Cobb: 12.1 IP 2019, ... so in 2018, 152.1 IP, 4.90 ERA, 4.80 FIP

Overall, I think I agree with azbobbop's assessment. 10.5 looks like roughly market value for Quintana's 2019 performance, and somebody will think he can return to the better performance of some years past. If they were looking to trade him, it seem like they should be able to pick up a non-negligible prospect without pitching in a ton of money.

My presumption in the Cubs declining Jose Quintana's 2020 club option as well as declining the club options on the veteran relievers who have one and non-tendering Addison Russell (and this also applies to Joe Maddon not returning as manager in 2020) is that after the monumental late-September collapse of 2019 on the heels of the 2018 Game #163 and Wild Card game defeats Ricketts will no longer accept the Cubs payroll going over the CBT threshold ($208M AAV in 2020) or extending a manager making $5M a year.   

The same thing is reportedly happening in Boston with respect to getting under the 2020 AAV payroll threshold. And I don't thnk it would be happening with the Cubs (or with the Red Sox) if they had at least made the playoffs in 2019, even as Wild Card #2.

It's fine to talk about "process" and the value of planning, practice, and preparation in the process, and how injuries probably adversely affected the Cubs in September, but the ultimate bottom line (especially when the 2019 payroll was pushing $245M AAV and the manager was making $5M) is performance and success on the field. From the owner's POV, there are really no valid excuses when so much money was spent basically for nothing.  

So if Epstein-Hoyer need to get under $208M AAV in 2020 payroll, part of that process would involve declining the club options on Quintana and the older veteran relievers who have club options (Morrow, Phelps, Holland, and Barnette), non-tendering Russell, and then trading Kris Bryant for a package that would include a young MLB SP to replace Quintana and using the money saved from trading Bryant to sign (or trade for) a proven MLB RH bat to replace Bryant in the lineup (preferably a 3B but it could be a corner OF or even a 2B). 

Again, if Ricketts has no problem with the Cubs sailing past the 2020 $208M AAV payroll threshold then they could keep Quintana (and Russell and Phelps) and even not trade Bryant and just keep him until he hits free-agency post-2021. But I don't thnk that's what will happen.  

While I certainly believe that the Cubs would much prefer to trade Quintana rather than decline his 2020 $10.5M option ($1M buy-out) or trade Russell rather than non-tender him (likely $4.5M salary via the arbitration process in 2020), it might not be possible to do that because the Cubs have to make their decision on declining Quintana's option right after the World Series and whether to tender (and risk losing in arbitration) or non-tender Russell by 12/2. 

PHIL: Thanks for that Boston context--I hadn't realized the trend there. If the Cubs did decide to pick up Quintana's option and then trade him (assuming the Cubs would not agree to pay part of the contract as part of the trade), do they have to do that by a certain date in order for Quintana's contract not to count against them for the CBT? I haven't been able to find any dates attached to the CBT in a quick internet search.

CHARLIE: If the Cubs trade Quintana and his new club pays 100% of his 2020 salary his new club assumes 100% of his salary AAV liability, but if the Cubs agree to pay a portion of Quintana's 2020 salary as part of the trade, whatever portion of Quintana's 2020 salary that is paid by the Cubs would count against the Cubs 2020 AAV. 

FWIW, the Cubs are just about exactly at the $208M CBT threshold right now (they would be at about $213M if they exercise Quintana's club option, or at about $203M if they decline Quintana's option), presuming they non-tender Russell and decline the club options on the veteran relievers.  

CUBS 2020 AAV

SIGNED
Jon Lester: $24.25M (full no trade)
Jason Heyward: $23M (or $20M if player opt-out because entire $20M deferred bonus must be paid in 2020)
Yu Darvish: $21M ($0 if opt-out although Cubs would likely extend a QO which if accepted would be around $20M) 
Anthony Rizzo: $14.5M (club option)
Craig Kimbrel: $14M 
Tyler Chatwood: $12.67M 
Kyle Hendricks: $10.5M 
Jose Quintana: $10.5M ($1M buy-out goes toward AAV if club option declined)
Brandon Morrow: $3M (club option buy-out) 
Kendall Graveman: $3M (club option) 
David Bote: $2.6M 
Daniel Descalso: $2.5M 
Brad Brach: $2M (legacy 2020 AAV after release) 
NOTE: My presumption is that Quintana ($10.5M with $1M buy-out), Morrow ($12M with $3M buy-out), Holland ($6.5M with no buy-out), Phelps ($5M with no buy-out), and Barnette ($3M with no buy-out) will have their 2020 club options declined, Rizzo's club option will be exercised, and Darvish and Heyward will not opt-out (or Darvish will opt out only if he believes he will not get hung with a QO if he opts-out).  
SUB-TOTAL: $134M (approximately)

ESTIMATED ARBITRATION SALARIES (if player is tendered)  
Kris Bryant: $18.5M 
Javier Baez: $12M 
Kyle Schwarber: $8M 
Willson Contreras: $6M 
Addison Russell: $4.5M (N/A because he will be either traded or else non-tendered on12/2)
Albert Almora: $2M 
Kyle Ryan: ("super two"): $1.5M 
SUB-TOTAL: $48M (estimated - not counting Russell) 

AUTO-RENEWAL (including minor league split salaries): $7M (estimated, although this amount is fairly constant every year)  

2020 MLB PLAYER BENEFIT COSTS (counts against AAV): $14M (minimum estimated, but could be a million or two more)

TOTAL: $203M if Quintana club option declined, or $213M if Qunitana club option is extercised

Since the 2020 CBT AAV threshold is $208M, exercising or declining Quintana's 2020 club option would essentially be the difference between the Cubs being over the 2020 CBT AAV threshold by $5M or being under the 2020 CBT AAV threshold by about $5M (and that's presuming the Cubs sign no free-agents during the off-season). 

Obviously other players could be traded and that would further affect the Cubs projected 2020 CBT AAV, with Kris Bryant ($18.5M projected salary via arb process) and Kyle Schwarber ($8M projected salary via arb process) being the most-likely ones to get moved, but if Javier Baez and/or Willson Contreras sign(s) a long-term contract extension with a substantial AAV during the off-season, that would increase the Cubs 2020 AAV. 

Again, I am making a presumption that Epstein-Hoyer have been given a mandate by Ricketts to get under the 2020 CBT threshold ($208M). If that is not the case, then Epstein-Hoyer can go merrily along and keep Quintana and not trade Bryant or Schwarber and probably sign one or more free-agents as well (like maybe a veteran SP, a couple of veteran relievers, a 2B, and maybe a CF).  

Time will tell. 

the ricketts got a brazillian dollar tax break...they need to trickle that down and flex on the entire league.

we gonna get grandal, rendon, castellanos, g.cole, strasburg, ryu, a.chapman...maybe sign bumgarner and odorizzi to work the pen.

I'd hate to part with both Kemp and Chatwood, but if it will bring that Trout guy back, we could even throw in Almora.

they get 3 guys and the cubs get 1 guy.  sounds like a slam dunk for the angels.  pencil trout in the cubs lineup.  he's got upside.

PHIL: Excellent breakdown, Phil. Thanks. 

I'm sure you heard. QO value was set at $17.8 million the day after you made your post.

I might have missed something and it's been talked about regarding a KB trade rumor from about 10-9-19. 

https://apple.news/AJUMyEWodQ2GX1cj1gE4ENQ 

Braves receive: 3B Kris Bryant 

Cubs receive: OF Cristian Pache, RHP Kyle Wright, LHP Kyle Muller and OF/UTL Austin Riley. Seems to be 3 of 5 top Brave prospects (BA). Pache (11), CF was in futures game. Wright (42), sits 93-96. Muller (57), AA and now reaching 98. Austin Riley, LF/3B and played some for Braves when Donaldson was not available. Right power bat. There is much on all of these in Baseball America but I'd like to see some discussion (unless I missed it, and can be led to it). Thanks. 

Except for the headline, the linked post reads more like a trade hypothetical than a trade rumor. I like the idea of looking at this package as a discussion point for expected return for Bryant. I would say it feels a little light to me. It's deep, with two decent outfield prospects with upside and two OK pitching prospects. But Riley doesn't help the team solve the CF problem right now, so he's either redundant to Bote or sort of a Schwarber replacement. Muller's inflated BB% at AA this year worries me a bit too. Muller alternatives, like Chad Sobotka or Touki Toussaint, are probably a sidegrade, and Mike Soroka is out of reach. Not sure how to sweeten this pot.

Max Fried or Bryse Wilson

CHARLIE: Austin Riley is actually a third-baseman but he had to play LF for the Braves in 2019 because he was blocked by Josh Donaldson, and Cristian Pache is considered to be the best defensive centerfielder in the minors and his bat has improved enough over the past year or two to where he is now rated in or just outside the top ten overall prospects in MLB.

So a package that includes Riley and Pache and one of the Braves young MLB or MLB-ready SP would probably be more than enough to get the Cubs to bite.

The only question from the Braves POV would be if two years of Kris Bryant is worth giving up Riley and Pache - AND - a young SP (Anderson, Wright, Wilson, or whoever), because the Cubs must get at least one legit young MLB or near MLB-ready SP prospect back in the deal for it to happen.    

Pache, Wright, Muller and Riley feels light to you, Charlie? I respect your opinion, but I would jump at it. I highly doubt the Braves would do it, though. Were talking 2 years of Bryant at what could be 18 million and 28-30 million in his last year of arbitration. 

The Cubs would be hurting their chances next year and building for 2021 in a deal like that, but that's rebuilding/retooling in one fell swoop. 

I would prefer Ian Anderson and Drew Waters instead of Wright and Pache, but my sense is the Cubs couldn't do much better than the deal speculated in that article. 

https://www.espn.com/espn/otl/story/_/id/27828247/...

t.skaggs story keeps getting deeper.

allegations the team knew about skagg's drug abuse (also his family).  teams are required to report this to MLB.

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  • K Dub 21 min 7 sec ago (view)

    PHIL: Excellent breakdown, Phil. Thanks. 

    I'm sure you heard. QO value was set at $17.8 million the day after you made your post.

     

  • K Dub 28 min 38 sec ago (view)

    Pache, Wright, Muller and Riley feels light to you, Charlie? I respect your opinion, but I would jump at it. I highly doubt the Braves would do it, though. Were talking 2 years of Bryant at what could be 18 million and 28-30 million in his last year of arbitration. 

    The Cubs would be hurting their chances next year and building for 2021 in a deal like that, but that's rebuilding/retooling in one fell swoop. 

     

  • Arizona Phil 2 days 4 hours ago (view)

    CHARLIE: Austin Riley is actually a third-baseman but he had to play LF for the Braves in 2019 because he was blocked by Josh Donaldson, and Cristian Pache is considered to be the best defensive centerfielder in the minors and his bat has improved enough over the past year or two to where he is now rated in or just outside the top ten overall prospects in MLB.

    So a package that includes Riley and Pache and one of the Braves young MLB or MLB-ready SP would probably be more than enough to get the Cubs to bite.

     

  • Dolorous Jon Lester 2 days 7 hours ago (view)

    Max Fried or Bryse Wilson

     

  • crunch 2 days 8 hours ago (view)

    https://www.espn.com/espn/otl/story/_/id/27828247/...

    t.skaggs story keeps getting deeper.

    allegations the team knew about skagg's drug abuse (also his family).  teams are required to report this to MLB.

     

  • Charlie 2 days 10 hours ago (view)

    Except for the headline, the linked post reads more like a trade hypothetical than a trade rumor. I like the idea of looking at this package as a discussion point for expected return for Bryant. I would say it feels a little light to me. It's deep, with two decent outfield prospects with upside and two OK pitching prospects. But Riley doesn't help the team solve the CF problem right now, so he's either redundant to Bote or sort of a Schwarber replacement. Muller's inflated BB% at AA this year worries me a bit too.

     

  • Cubster 2 days 17 hours ago (view)

    I might have missed something and it's been talked about regarding a KB trade rumor from about 10-9-19. 

    https://apple.news/AJUMyEWodQ2GX1cj1gE4ENQ 

    Braves receive: 3B Kris Bryant 

     

  • crunch 4 days 6 hours ago (view)

    they get 3 guys and the cubs get 1 guy.  sounds like a slam dunk for the angels.  pencil trout in the cubs lineup.  he's got upside.

     

  • Jackstraw 4 days 9 hours ago (view)

    I'd hate to part with both Kemp and Chatwood, but if it will bring that Trout guy back, we could even throw in Almora.

     

  • crunch 4 days 12 hours ago (view)

    the ricketts got a brazillian dollar tax break...they need to trickle that down and flex on the entire league.

    we gonna get grandal, rendon, castellanos, g.cole, strasburg, ryu, a.chapman...maybe sign bumgarner and odorizzi to work the pen.

     

  • Arizona Phil 4 days 12 hours ago (view)

    CHARLIE: If the Cubs trade Quintana and his new club pays 100% of his 2020 salary his new club assumes 100% of his salary AAV liability, but if the Cubs agree to pay a portion of Quintana's 2020 salary as part of the trade, whatever portion of Quintana's 2020 salary that is paid by the Cubs would count against the Cubs 2020 AAV. 

     

  • Charlie 4 days 13 hours ago (view)

    PHIL: Thanks for that Boston context--I hadn't realized the trend there. If the Cubs did decide to pick up Quintana's option and then trade him (assuming the Cubs would not agree to pay part of the contract as part of the trade), do they have to do that by a certain date in order for Quintana's contract not to count against them for the CBT? I haven't been able to find any dates attached to the CBT in a quick internet search.

     

  • Arizona Phil 4 days 14 hours ago (view)

    My presumption in the Cubs declining Jose Quintana's 2020 club option as well as declining the club options on the veteran relievers who have one and non-tendering Addison Russell (and this also applies to Joe Maddon not returning as manager in 2020) is that after the monumental late-September collapse of 2019 on the heels of the 2018 Game #163 and Wild Card game defeats Ricketts will no longer accept the Cubs payroll going over the CBT threshold ($208M AAV in 2020) or extending a manager making $5M a year.   

     

  • crunch 4 days 19 hours ago (view)

    i actually like ATL the team...the fans and the 3+ hours of tommy hawk chawpin' non-stop is beyond annoying before even getting into how messed up it is they're still doing that in 2019.  it's all they do, just that 1 single thing...for hours...

    fans were so upset about not getting foam hatchets pre-game yesterday (that was the club's way to "dial it back") they were busy letting the "PC police" know they're here to chant and chop as loud as they could before the first pitch was even thrown.

    it took about 10 runs to shut them up.

     

  • Dolorous Jon Lester 5 days 9 hours ago (view)

    Damn. Atlanta was the only team in the NL I was hoping would advance. I don’t know what I was hoping in LA vs WAS series. Cataclysmic event? (Side note, I live in the DC area, what a dreadful group of fans. They deserve nothing good ever.)

     

  • crunch 5 days 11 hours ago (view)

    i live in the south.  my personal hell has been ATL fans by a huge amount more than STL (or even CWS) fans.

    i've made my decision to sell out my people for personal comfort.