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Cubs 2020 Rule 5 Draft & Minor League Free-Agent Watch List
LAST UPDATED 10-30-2020
As things stand right now...
57 Cubs minor leaguers are eligible for selection in the December 2020 MLB Rule 5 Draft, and 24 Cubs minor leaguers (18 post-2020 6YFA and six second-contract players) are eligible to be declared MLB Rule 55 minor league 6YFA at 5 PM Eastern on the 5th day following the final game of the 2020 World Series (or at 5 PM Eastern on October 15th if the 2020 World Series is cancelled).
LHP Matt Dermody, OF Ian Miller, LHRP Josh Osich, and INF-OF Hernan Perez, and 1B-3B Patrick Wisdom were outrighted to the minors during the 2020 season and had the right to either elect free-agency immediately or else defer free-agency until after the conclusion of the MLB regular season, and all five accepted their respective outright assignments and deferred their respective option to elect free-agency until after the conclusion of the MLB regular season, and then Dermody, Miller, Osich, H. Perez, and Wisdom elected free-agency prior to the 10/15 deadline.
The Cubs will have until five days after the final game of the 2020 World Series (or until October 15th if the World Series is cancelled) to either sign a post-2020 MLB Rule 55 minor league free-agent (including any Article XIX-A or Article XX-D player who did not file for free-agency by October 15th) to a 2021 minor league successor contract or add the player to their MLB 40-man roster, otherwise the player will automatically be declared a free-agent.
Also, any 2020 Rule 5 Draft-eligible player who is not eligible to be a minor league free-agent after the World Series but who was sent outright to the minors after signing a 2020 MLB contract (Trevor Megill and Michael Rucker) must be added to the MLB 40-man roster no later than 5 PM (Eastern) on the 5th day after the final game of the 2020 World Series or else the player cannot be added back to the MLB 40-man roster of the club that outrighted the player until after the conclusion of the Rule 5 Draft.
Then the Cubs must decide by November 20th which 2020 Rule 5 Draft-eligible players (including any player eligible to be a minor league free-agent post-2020 who has signed a 2021 minor league successor contract) to add their MLB 40-man roster (to keep the player from being eligible for selection in the Rule 5 Draft).
The Cubs also must decide by November 20th whether to place a 2020 Rule 5 Draft-eligible minor league player who is not added to the MLB 40-man roster on 11/20 on their AAA Iowa reserve list or on the reserve list of an affiliate of a lower classification. At most 38 of the 2020 Rule 5 Draft-eligible Cubs minor leaguers can be placed on the AAA Iowa Reserve List on 11/20. However, although the AAA Reserve List limit is 38, probably more like 35 of the Rule 5 Draft-eligible players will actually be placed on the AAA Iowa reserve list on 11/20 (the Cubs placed 35 players on their AAA Iowa reserve list in both 2018 and 2019), because slots need to be left open for players the Cubs might want to select in the AAA Phase of the Rule 5 Draft, as well as for free-agents signed to minor league contracts or players outrighted to the minors after 11/20 but prior to the Rule 5 Draft. (Any Rule 5 Draft-eligible player who signs a 2021 minor league contract prior to the Rule 5 Draft will be eligible for selection). Any 2020 Rule 5 Draft-eligible Cubs minor leaguer who is not placed on the AAA Iowa Reserve List on 11/20 will be eligible for selection in the AAA Phase of the Rule 5 Draft).
Here are some of the more-noteworthy Cubs minor leaguers who are either eligible to be a minor league free-agent post-2020 or eligible for selection in the 2020 Rule 5 Draft (full lists further down the post)...
LAST UPDATED: 10-30-2020
GROUP 1 (Eligible to be Minor League FA post-2020 - MLB ready or near-MLB ready):
USEFUL AAA DEPTH - NOT LIKELY TO BE RETAINED POST-2020
1. Rex Brothers, LHRP - 4+161 MLB ST - has Article XX-D rights and no minor league options left if added back to te 40
2. Pedro Strop, RHRP - 9+092 MLB-ST - has Article XIX-A rights & no minor league options left if added to the 40
34. Joe Wieland, RHRP - 3+035 MLB-ST - has Article XX-D rights & no minor league options left if added to thd 40)
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LEGIT PROSPECT (50/50 CHANCE TO BE ADDED TO 40 POST-WORLD SERIES IF NOT DURING SEASON)
4. Danny Hultzen, LHRP - 0+023 MLB-ST - has Article XX-D rights & no minor league options left if added to the 40
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NOT LIKELY TO BE ADDED TO 40 POST-WORLD SERIES
5. Tyler Olson, LHRP - 2+114 MLB-ST - has Article XX-D rights & no minor league options left if added to the 40
6. Mark Zagunis, OF - 0+103 MLB-ST - has Article XX-D rights & no minor league options left if added to the 40
7. Jerry Vasto, LHRP - 0+037 MLB-ST - has Article XX-D rights & two minor league options left if added to the 40
NOTE-1: Article XIX-A means player can't be optioned or sent outright to minors without his consent once he is added to MLB 40-man roster
NOTE-2: Article XX-D means player can elect free-agency if sent outright to minors after being added to 40
GROUP 2 (Eligible to be Minor League FA post-2020 - not ready for MLB):
LEGIT PROSPECT (50/50 CHANCE TO BE ADDED TO 40 POSt_WORLD SERIES)
1. Jerrick Suiter, RHP (ex-1B)
SECOND TIER-PROSPECTS
2. Luis Lugo, LHP - SWING
3. Jordan Minch, LHRP
4. Ryan Lawlor, LHRP (second-contract player)
5. Erling Moreno, RHP - SWING
6. Corey Black, RHRP
7. Erick Castillo, C
8. Eugenio Palma, LHRP
9. Ivan Medina, RHRP
10. Luke Hagerty, LHRP (has Article XX-D rights & three minor league options left if added to the 40)
11. Vance Vizcaino, OF (second contract player)
12. Eric Gonzalez, C
13. Garrett Kelly, RHRP (second-contract player)
COMMENT: Only Jerrick Suiter has an outside chance to be added to the 40 post-World Series, but all of the pitchers and players in this group will likely be offered a 2021 minor league successor contract, although if offered one, the player does not have to sign it.
GROUP 3 (Eligible for selection in 2020 Rule 5 Draft - likely on AAA Reserve List if not added to MLB 40-man roster)
LEGIT PROSPECT (AT VARIOUS LEVELS):
1. Cory Abbott, RHSP (AAA - likely to be added to 40 on 11/20)
2. Christopher Morel, INF (Hi-A - likely to be added to 40 on 11/20)
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3. P. J. Higgins, C-INF (AAA - 50/50 chance to be added to 40 on 11/20 if not during season)
4. Michael Rucker, RHP - SWING (AAA - 50/50 chance to be added to 40 after World Series - has Article XX-D rights & three minor league options left if added to the 40)
5. Duncan Robinson, RHSP (AAA - 50-50 chance to be added to the 40 on 11/20)
6. Trevor Megill, RHRP (AAA - 50/50 chance to be added back to the 40 after World Series - has Article XX-D rights & three minor leaguie options left if added back to nthe 40)
7. Dakota Mekkes, RHRP (AAA - 50/50 chance to be added to 40 on 11/20)
8. Keegan Thompson, RHSP (AAA - 50/50 chance to be added to 40 on 11/20)
9. Brendon Little, LHSP (AA - 50/50 chance to be added to 40 on 11/20)
10. Aramis Ademan, SS (AA- 50/50 chance to be added to 40 on 11/20)
11. Juan Gamez, RHRP (Hi-A - 50/50- chance to be added to 40 on 11/20)
NOTE: The ten players listed above are good candidates to get selected in the Major League Phase of the 2020 MLB Rule 5 Draft if not added to the AAA Iowa reserve list by 11/20 (depending on how many AAA slots the Cubs leave open going into the Rule 5 Draft, there could be as many as 38 Rule 5 Draft-eligible players placed on the AAA Iowa reserve list).
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SECOND-TIER PROSPECT (AAA):
12. Trent Giambrone, INF-OF
13. C. D. Pelham, LHP - SWING (0+027 MLB-ST - has Article XX-D rights & two minor league options left if added back to the 40)
14. Wyatt Short, LHRP
15. Matt Swarmer, RHP - SWING
16. Craig Brooks, RHRP
17. Donnie Dewees, OF
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SECOND-TIER PROSPECT (AA):
18. Erich Uelmen, RHP - SWING
19. Ben Hecht, RHRP
20. Bailey Clark, RHP - SWING
21. Eddy Julio Marttinez, OF
22. Javier Assad, RHSP
23. Jeffrey Passantino, RHP - SWING
24. Bryan Hudson, LHSP
25. Jared Young, 1B-OF
26. Delvin Zinn, INF
27. Zach Davis, OF
28. Tommy Nance, RHRP
29. Scott Effross, RHRP
39. Tyler Payne, C
SECOND-TIER PROSPECT (SINGLE-A)
31. Jose Albertos RHSP
32. Cam Balego, C-INF
33. Yunior Perez, RHSP
34. Danis Correa, RHRP
35, Aneuris Rosario, RHRP
36. Peyton Remy, RHP - SWING
37. Yonathan Perlaza, OF (ex-INF)
38. Fernando Kelli, OF
NOTE: All of the players listed above are good candidates to get selected in the AAA Phase of the 2020 MLB Rule 5 Draft if not added to the AAA Iowa reserve list by 11/20 (depending on how many AAA slots the Cubs leave open going into the Rule 5 Draft, there could be as many as 38 Rule 5 Draft-eligible players placed on the AAA Iowa reserve list).
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Fact is, it is not unusual for veteran players who are added to the MLB 40-man roster during the course of the season to be removed from the 40 when they are no longer of use to the club. For example, RHP Jason Adam, LHP Rex Brothers, LHP Matt Dermody, 2B Jason Kipnis, OF Ian Miller, INF Hernan Perez, C Josh Phegley, and 1B-3B Patrick Wisdom (all eligible to be minor league free-agents post-2020) were added to the Cubs MLB 40-man roster just prior to or during the course of the 2020 MLB regular season, although Dermody, Miller, Perez, and Phegley were subsequenjtly outrighted back to the minors and Wisdom was Designated for Assignment prior to the conclusion of the season, and in 2019 RHP Allen Webster, Of-1B Jim Adduci, OF Carlos Gonzalez, LHP Tim Collins, INF Robel Garcia, and LHP Danny Hultzen (all eligible to be minor league free-agents post-2019) were added to the Cubs MLB 40-man roster during the course of the 2019 season, although Adduci was outrighted back to AAA in June and elected free-agency aftef the conclusion of the MLB regular season, Webster was outrighted back to Iowa after the season and was declared a Rule 55 minor league 6YFA after the World Series, CarGo and Collins elected to be free-agents after being outrighted in July, and Hultzen was non-tendered in on 12/2. Robel Garcia (a second-contact player signed by the Cubs to a 2019 minor league contract post-2018 and who was added to the Cubs MLB 40-man roster in July) was claimed off waivers by the Cincinnati Reds in July 2020.
Besides adding players who are eligible to be minor league free-agents to the 40 during the MLB regular season, a player eligible to be a Rule 55 minor league free-agent (second-contract or 6YFA) is sometimes added to the club's MLB 40-man roster post-World Series just to keep the player from becoming a minor league free-agent, especially if the player declines to sign a minor league successor contract. That's what happened in 2018, when the Cubs added RHRP Matt Carasiti (eligible to be a Rule 55 second-contract minor league FA post-2017) to the 40 after the 2017 World Series to keep him from walking away as a free-agent, although he was released about a month later so that he could pursue an opportunity to pitch for the NPB Tokyo Yakult Swallows in Japan. (The Cubs received a substantial cash payment from the Swallows as the release fee).
But even if a minor leaguer who is eligible to be a free-agent signs a successor contract, the club might choose to add the player to the MLB 40-man roster because the club doesn't want to risk losing the player in the Rule 5 Draft. In fact this happened in 2016, when LHRP Jack Leathersich (who was eligible to be a Rule 55 second-contract minor league FA post-2016) signed a 2017 minor league successor contract prior to the conclusion of the World Series, only to be added to the Cubs MLB 40-man roster on 11/18 so that he would not be eligible for selection in the December 2016 Rule 5 Draft.
The bottom line is, if a player eligible to be an MLB Rule 55 minor league free-agent (either 6YFA or second-contract FA) is not added to an MLB 40-man roster or does not sign a minor league successor contract by 5 PM Eastern on the 5th day after the final game of the World Series, the player will be automatically declared a free-agent and the player's former club receives no compensation if the player signs elsewhere. So minor leaguers like Jerrick Suiter, Luis Lugo, and Jordan Minch (as well as the other players eligible to be a minor league FA post-2020) have leverage other Cubs minor leaguers do not have.
As far as players who are eligible for selection in the 2020 Rule 5 Draft are concerned, only one (LHP Brailyn Marquez) was added to the Cubs MLB 40-man roster during the 2020 MLB regular season (and that was on the last day of the season!).
The Cubs did not add players who were Rule 5 Draft eligible to their MLB 40-man roster during the course of the 2019 MLB regular season, but they did add three (RHP Tyson Miller, C Miguel Amaya, and INF Zack Short) to the 40 on 11/20.
NOTE: INF Nico Hoerner was added to the Cubs MLB 40-man roster during the 2019 season, but he would not have been eligible for selection in the Rule 5 Draft until post-2021.
In 2018, the Cubs added RHRP James Norwood to the 40 during the course of the MLB regular season and LHSP Justin Steele to the 40 on 11/20. By comparison, during the course of the 2017 MLB regular season the Cubs added four players to the 40 (RHP Dylan Floro, RHRP Dillon Maples, RHSP Jen-Ho Tseng, and OF Mark Zagunis) who would have been eligible for selection in the December 2017 Rule 5 Draft, although Floro was subsequently claimed off waivers by the Los Angeles Dodgers.
NOTE: INF-OF Ian Happ was also added to the Cubs MLB 40-man roster during the 2017 season, but he would not have been eligible for selection in the Rule 5 Draft until post-2018.
The Cubs then added three more post-2017 Rule 5 Draft-eligibles (RHSP Adbert Alzolay, INF David Bote, and RHSP Oscar de la Cruz) to the 40 on 11/20 of 2017, Bote after hitting a robust 333/395/536 for the Mesa Solar Sox in the post-season Arizona Fall League. (It's not unusual for the Cubs to assign a Rule 5 Draft-eligible player to the Arizona Fall League, as the AFL is often used as a "proving ground" for pitchers and position-players who are under consideration for promotion to an MLB 40-man roster).
NOTE: Prior to 2019, players who were eligible to be MLB Rule 55 minor league free-agents after the World Series could not be assigned to the AFL unless the player had either been added to an MLB 40-man roster or had agreed to a minor league successor contract, but with the AFL season now starting and ending three weeks earlier than in prior years, the AFL season will end prior to MLB Rule 55 minor league players becoming free-agents, and so players eligible to be MLB Rule 55 minor leaguers five days after the final game of the World Series can play in the AFL even if the player has not signed a minor league successor contract).
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MLB RULE 5 DRAFT:
The MLB Rule 5 Draft is held on the 2nd Thursday in December and is presently the last order of business at the MLB WINTER MEETINGS. It is a mechanism that allows MLB clubs to select (draft) players off minor league reserve lists.
There is a "Major League Phase" where an MLB club can select Rule 5 Draft-eligible players off the reserve lists of minor league clubs (any minor league classification) for $100,000 ("Major League Phase" Rule 5 Draft price increased from $50,000 to $100,000 beginning with the December 2016 draft), and a "AAA Phase" where a club's AAA minor league affiliate can select Rule 5 Draft-eligible players off the reserve lists of minor league clubs of a lower classification (below AAA) for $24,000 (Rule 5 "AAA Phase" draft price increased from $12,000 to $24,000 beginning with the December 2016 draft).
NOTE: Effective December 2016, the "AA Phase" (where a club's AA minor league affiliate could select Rule 5 Draft-eligible players off the reserve lists of minor league clubs of a classification below AA for $4,000) has been eliminated.
There is no limit on the number of rounds in each phase (there could be one, there could be three, there could be five or more). As long as at least one club is still selecting players, the phase will continue, but as soon as all 30 teams have a full reserve list (so that clubs can no longer make selections) or have passed, the phase is over.
There is no limit on the number of Rule 5 Draft-eligible players any one organization can lose in a Rule 5 Draft.
RULE 5 DRAFT ELIGIBILITY
1. A minor league player who was 18 or younger on the June 5th immediately prior to signing his first contract is eligible for selection starting with the 5th Rule 5 Draft following his first qualified season, and a minor league player who was 19 years or older on the June 5th immediately prior to signing his first contract becomes eligible for selection starting with the 4th Rule 5 Draft following his first qualified season.
2. If a player signs his first contract after the conclusion of the season of the MLB or minor league club to which he is first assigned (even if he signs prior to the Rule 5 Draft), the next season is considered to be the player's "first qualified season" for Rule 5 eligibility purposes. (Depending on the minor league, the conclusion of a minor league club's season could be as early as the first week of August, or as late as the second week of September).
3. A player eligible to be an MLB Rule 55 minor league free-agent who signs a minor league successor contract prior to being declared a free-agent and a free-agent with prior MLB and/or minor league service who signs a minor league contract prior to the Rule 5 Draft is eligible for selection if the player was 18 or younger on the June 5th immediately prior to signing his first contract and it is at least the 5th Rule 5 Draft since he signed his first contract, or the player was 19 years or older on the June 5th immediately prior to signing his first contract and it is at least the 4th Rule 5 Draft since he signed his first contract.
4. Any player on a minor league reserve list who has either been released or had his contract voided and then re-signs with the same MLB organization within one year is eligible for selection.
5. Any player on a minor league reserve list who has been outrighted to the minors previously in his career is eligible for selection.
6. A player on the Voluntary Retired List, Disqualified List, or Ineligible List is not eligible for selection.
7. An MLB club can designate any player on a minor league reserve list "eligible for selection" in a Rule 5 Draft even if the player would not normally be eligible, but once a player is designated "eligible for selection," he remains eligible for selection in all subsequent Rule 5 drafts.
NOTE: A club might do this if the club is planning to release the player during the off-season.
8. A minor league player-manager who would be eligible for selection in the Rule 5 Draft if he was only a player can be selected, but if he is selected, the player-manager can reject the selection and retire. He has 30 days to decide. If he rejects the selection and opts to retire as a player, the player-manager is ineligible to be reinstated as a player for a minimum of one year.
CUBS MINOR LEAGUERS ELIGIBLE FOR SELECTION IN 2020 RULE 5 DRAFT (last updated 10-15-2020)
Cory Abbott, RHP
Aramis Ademan, INF
Maikel Aguiar, RHP
Jose Albertos, RHP
Javier Assad, RHP
Cam Balego, C-INF
Craig Brooks, RHP
Jesus Camargo, RHP
Bailey Clark, RHP
Danis Correa, RHP
Yovanny Cuevas, OF
Zach Davis, OF
Donnie Dewees, OF
Christian Donahue, INF
Scott Effross, RHP
Juan Gamez, RHP (signed 2021minor league contract)
Trent Giambrone, IF-OF
Jose Gutierrez, OF
Ben Hecht, RHP
Ferrol Heredia, LHP
P. J. Higgins, C-INF
Bryan Hudson, LHP
Brandon Hughes, LHP (ex-OF)
Ryan Kellogg, LHP
Fernando Kelli, OF
Brendon Little, LHP
Eddy Julio Martinez, OF
Hector Matos, RHP (Restricted List)
Trever Megill, RHP (Article XX-D player)
Fidel Mejia, INF
Dakota Mekkes, RHP
Christopher Morel, INF
Connor Myers, OF
Tommy Nance, RHP
Carlos Ocampo, RHP
Jeffrey Passantino, RHP
Tyler Payne, C
C. D. Pelham, LHP (Article XX-D player)
Raymond Pena, C
Henderson Perez, C
Yunior Perez, RHP
Yonathan Perlaza, INF
Gustavo Polanco, C-1B
Eury Ramos, RHP
Peyton Remy, RHP
Duncan Robinson, RHP
Aneuris Rosario, RHP
Michael Rucker, RHP (Article XX-D player)
Wyatt Short, LHP
Jonathan Sierra, OF
Matt Swarmer, RHP
Keegan Thompson, RHP
Erich Uelmen, RHP
Didier Vargas, LHP
D. J. Wilson, OF
Jared Young, 1B-OF
Delvin Zinn, INF
Additionally, a free-agent who signs a 2021 minor league contract prior to the 2020 Rule 5 Draft or a minor league player who is eligible to be a minor league free-agent post-2020 but who signs a minor league successor contract prior to becoming a free-agent will be eligible for selection in the 2020 Rule 5 Draft if the player was 18 or younger on the June 5th immediately prior to signing his first contract and it is at least the 5th Rule 5 Draft following his first qualified season, and a minor league player who was 19 years or older on the June 5th immediately prior to signing his first contract becomes eligible for selection starting with the 4th Rule 5 Draft following his first qualified season.
MLB RULE 55 FREE-AGENT POST-2020 WORLD SERIES
SIX-YEAR MINOR LEAGUE FREE-AGENTS:
Corey Black, RHP
Rex Brothers, LHP (Article XX-D player)
Erick Castillo, C
Eric Gonzalez, C
Luke Hagerty, LHP (Article XX-D player)
Danny Hultzen, LHP (Article XX-D player)
Luis Lugo, LHP
Ivan Medina, RHP
Jordan Minch, LHP
Erling Moreno, RHP
Tyler Olson, LHP (Article XX-D player)
Eugenio Palma, LHP
Pedro Strop, RHP (Article XIX-A player)
Jerrick Suiter, RHP/1B
Jerry Vasto, LHP (Article XX-D player)
Joe Wieland, RHP (Article XX-D player)
Mark Zagunis, OF (Article XX-D player)
SECOND CONTRACT MINOR LEAGUE PLAYERS (see NOTES below)
Aneudis Beard RHP (previously released by TEX)
Garrett Kelly, RHP (previously released by MIN)
Ryan Lawlor, LHP (previously released by ATL)
Jorge Ramirez, LHP (previously released by TEX)
Juan Vasquez, C (previously released by SD)
Vance Vizcaino, OF (previously released by KC)
SECOND CONTRACT MINOR LEAGUE PLAYERS NOTES:
NOTE-1: With mutual consent (player & club), a second-contract minor league player who has accrued fewer than seven minor league seasons can be signed to a multi-year minor league contract with club control extending up through the player's seventh minor league season.
NOTE-2: RHP Aneudis Beard (previously released by TEX) and LHP Jorge Ramirez (previously released by TEX) are second-contract minor league players, but neither of the them is eligible for selection in the 2020 Rule 5 Draft if signed beyond 2020.
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RULE 5 DRAFT RESTRICTIONS:
1. A minor league player eligible for selection in the Rule 5 Draft cannot be added to an MLB Reserve List (40-man roster), traded to another organization, or transferred from one minor league reserve list to another within the same organization, starting with the filing of minor league reserve lists on November 20th (or November 19th if November 20th falls on a Saturday or November 18th if November 20th falls on a Sunday) up through the conclusion of the Rule 5 Draft.
2. A Rule 5 Draft-eligible player cannot be sent outright to the minors beginning at 5 PM (Eastern) on the third day prior to the Rule 5 Draft through the conclusion of the draft.
3. A club must have as many slots open on its MLB Reserve List (40-man roster) prior to the Rule 5 Draft as the number of players it selects in the Major League Phase, and an MLB club's AAA affiliate must have as many slots open on its reserve list prior to the AAA Phase of the draft as the number of players the affiliate selects in the AAA Phase.
4. A club can select a player off the reserve list of one of its own minor league affiliates, but if the player is selected in the Major League Phase, the club is bound by the same Rule 5 roster restrictions as if it had selected the player off the reserve list of another club's minor league affiliate.
NOTE: This actually happened at least once a number of years ago, after a club (Atlanta Braves) inadvertently left one of its top prospects off its MLB Reserve List (40-man roster) when minor league reserve lists were submitted to the MLB Commissioner on November 20th.
5. A player eligible for selection in the Rule 5 Draft cannot be "covered up" from selection, either by agreement between two clubs or by effect (such as by concocting a phony injury and placing the player on the Injured List in an attempt to decrease a player's value when the player is not really injured). Also, a player selected in the Major League Phase of the Rule 5 Draft cannot be "hidden" to help the drafting club fulfill Rule 5 roster obligations (such as by leaving the player on the Injured List after he is healthy enough to play). If the MLB Commissioner believes a club "covered up" a player to avoid losing the player in the Rule Draft or "hid" a selected player on an Injured List, the offending club or clubs are subject to a penalty (TBD by the MLB Commissioner).
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