Cubs @ Mets: Series Thread (Games 66-69)

The Cubs swept the Cardinals at Wrigley to remain tied for first with the Brewers, and to push the Cards all the way to 4th in the division. They return to the jet-set life with a four-game series against the Mets. This will be their second time taking on the Mets. The Cubs took three out of three at Wrigley April 20-22. This time, they are not fortunate enough to dodge Jacob deGrom. The Mets enter the series first in the NL East thanks largely to their pitching staff; they lead the NL in fWAR on the pitching side while their offense rates at near the middle of the pack. See below for the pitching matchups.


Game 66, Monday, June 14, 6:10 pm central

CHC: RHP Jake Arrieta (5-6, 4.97 ERA)

NYM: LHP David Peterson (1-5, 6.32 ERA)

After two bad starts, Arrieta had a nice rebound in San Diego. He allowed one earned run and struck out six in five innings of work. He earned a win against the Mets back on April 20, allowing one earned run on three hits and three walks in five innings pitched.

David Peterson lasted only 3.1 in a loss to the Cubs on April 21, when he allowed six runs, only three earned, due largely to some rough defensive play behind him. His last two starts have been pretty ugly. He's pitched 0.1 and 2.2 innings and allowed nine earned runs on eleven hits.


Game 67, Tuesday, June 15, 6:10 pm central

CHC: RHP Alec Mills (2-0, 6.08 ERA)

NYM: RHP Taijuan Walker (5-2, 2.07 ERA)

Mills is projected to get his first start since April 13, when he went four innings and allowed two earned runs to the Brewers. Since then, he's pitched out of the bullpen including a handful of multi-inning appearances. He pitched three shutout innings against the Mets on April 21.

Walker has been a significant boon to the Mets, as one would expect a healthy version of him to be. Last time out, he pitched seven innings and collected nine strikeouts while allowing only one earned to the Orioles. He suffered a loss to the Cubs when he allowed three runs, two earned, in 3.2 innings pitched on April 20.


Game 68, Wednesday, June 16, 6:10 pm central

CHC: TBD

NYM: RHP Jacob deGrom (6-2, 0.56 ERA)

There's been few reports on Trevor Williams since he was placed on the IL following an emergency appendectamy. He resumed throwing back on June 6, but I'm guessing this will be Kohl Stewart's turn until we hear otherwise. Stewart has made three fill-in starts for the Cubs, looking good in his debut and less good each time since. Unlike the Padres, whom he held to one hit in his first start, the Giants and the Cardinals were able to square him up for 13 hits in 7.2 innings.

According to Fangraphs projection systems, the Cubs have only a 25.3% chance at winning this one. That's their lowest such projection on the season. The reason for that is that they face the baseball equivalent of a wizard. Jacob deGrom has improved not only his strikeout percentage but his fastball velocity each of the last five years, despite being on the wrong side of the aging curve. His walk and homerun rates are on the absurdly stingey side. Best to set expectations going into this at around, "I look forward to watching one of the best pitchers of a generation do his thing."


Game 69, Thursday, June 17, 6:10 pm central

CHC: RHP Kyle Hendricks (8-4, 4.46 ERA)

NYM: RHP Marcus Stroman (6-4, 2.33 ERA)

Kyle Hendricks's fWAR number is all kinds of messed up, but really he's had like two terrible starts and otherwise been recognizably himself. Perhaps that's how he has managed to earn a decision in all but one of his starts, and he's won six in a row. You have to go back to April 28 to find a start in which he didn't at least finish the fifth inning. One encouraging sign has been that his groundball percentage is inching closer to his career average, standing at 46.5% since May. This will be his first 2021 start against the Metropolitans.

Marcus Stroman has pitched well enough in 2021 to be considered the ace on most staffs. His last loss came on May 16, and since then he's made five starts in which he's gone at least six deep and allowed no more than three earned runs in an outing. He's featured reverse splits this season, bringing a getting more value from his cutter and changeup than in previous seasons.

Comments

bit over the 2.0 version of the arrieta era.

speaking of, pedro strop doesn't seem to have attempted to sign with another team after he requested his release from the cubs.  he turned 36 years old yesterday.

maples working for the first time in a week and is nowhere near the plate through 3 pitches.

...then throws 3 strikes in a row, 2 looking, for a K.

that's maples.

alzolay threw a pen today (tuesday)

bryant pulled and getting xrays after HBP on his hand.  sigh.

he did take his base and run for himself, but he was pulled later.

reliever robert stock starting vs degrom...looks like we're in for a "bullpen game"

wtf willie harris...bro...

Beginning today (June 16th), post-2020 Article XX-B MLB free-agents who signed a 2021 MLB contract will no longer have an automatic "no trade" right, so Arrieta, Chafin, Marisnick, Pederson, and Romine can now be traded without restriction. 

Time to sign Wilson Ramos.

dude can barely move behind the plate these days.  i wouldn't trust him to stop a passed ball or a wild pitch even with his advanced skill.

that said, all the cubs in-house options kinda suck.

hey d.ross, grab a glove and get to work.

Tyler Glasnow sprained his UCL and is pretty openly objecting to the MLB pushback on use of "sticky stuff," saying he thinks not using his "substance of choice," rosin and sunscreen, lead to his injury and will lead others to injury. I will be interested to hear a more open discourse on what pitchers use to get a grip on the ball, what will be permitted, and what adjustments pitchers will make. The reasoning that adjustments in grip could lead to tendon and ligament injuries strikes me as plausible and further reason that significant changes in policy should probably be made in the offseason so that teams and pitchers can figure out how to proceed.

Guys who haven't been cheating don't need to change a thing.

*laughs nervously looking over at craig kimbrel*

That was definitely my position prior to this year. But I am starting to buy into the claim that almost all pitchers are using something, even if it is rosin and sunscreen in many cases.

CHARLIE: You are absolutely right.

Granted there are existing rules prohibiting pitchers from using foreign substances, but you don't change enforcement protocols suddenly in the middle of the season. Pitchers should be given an opportunity to make adjustments during the course of Spring Training before any new enforcement policy is implememted.

This can and should be addressed in the upcoming CBA negotiations. Not now. 

brews did the cubs a solid by losing before the cubs have to take on degrom.

ow...villar got nailed in the ear and the back of the head by a throw from lobaton on a stolen base.

and d.smith gets HBP.

this is high end next level strategy.  you beat degrom by injuring everyone until they have to forfeit the game.  moneyballs.

meanwhile...degrom with 8 Ks through 3 perfect innings.  he's also got a RBI single.

wow...and he's done for the night.  that's not good...well, for mets fans.

"right shoulder soreness"

This Mets series is going poorly, so... off-topic question. Which of these outcomes do you currently think is more likely in 2021: (a) Javy hits at least 40 homeruns in the regular season, (b) Patrick Wisdom hits at least 20 homeruns in the regular season.

(c) hendricks gives up at least 60 homers in the regular season

seriously, though...wisdom has "slowed down" the past 10 days or so, but he still managed a couple homers.  he's got a damn good shot at 20+ even if bote+duffy come back to steal a little time from him.

The Cubs have optioned RHP Robert Stock back to AAA Iowa, and recalled LHP Brad Wieck. 

tonight's game (thursday) is mlb.tv free game, btw.

t.williams threw a 25 pitch pen thursday

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  • crunch 2 hours 33 min ago (view)

    * except for playing 1st base

     

  • crunch 1 day 22 hours ago (view)

    a lot of people were all-in on it being a 2022 thing, but given how MLB has held the DH over the player's heads like it's some kind of extremely valuable chip worth more than the players seem to think it's worth...who knows...

     

  • Cubster 2 days 23 min ago (view)

    any estimates on the chances of the DH in the NL anytime soon?

     

  • crunch 2 days 48 min ago (view)

    k.schwarber is hella good at post-season baseball.

     

  • Cubster 2 days 1 hour ago (view)

    Carter Hawkins introduced to the press...

    https://youtu.be/X9RV6bAIIfw

     

  • crunch 2 days 2 hours ago (view)

    e.castillo and t.payne off the 40man in 100% totally expected moves.

    both are/were catcher organizational depth.

     

  • crunch 2 days 3 hours ago (view)

    for those keeping track of the heating-up Mets head of baseball operations search, theo has already ruled himself out.

    mets want(ed) some heavy hitters (including b.beane and d.stearns), but none of them are on board...well, MIL took stearns off the board before he could chime in because he has a year left on his contract.

     

  • Arizona Phil 2 days 7 hours ago (view)

    Something to keep in mind about clearing MLB 40-man roster slots for players eligible for selection in this year's Rule 5 Draft is that you can't non-tender players to create 40-man roster space for Rule 5 Draft eligibles. That's because players can only be non-tendered on 12/2, and the pre-Rule 5 Draft roster filing deadline is 11/19 (almost two weeks - PRIOR TO -the contract tender date). NOTE: Normally the roster filing deadline is 11/20, but it's moved up to 11/19 this year because 11/20 falls on a Saturday in 2021

     

  • Arizona Phil 2 days 8 hours ago (view)

    BRADSBEARD: Just one game, some BP, infield practice, and baserunning drills. So not much to glean from that so far. 

     

  • crunch 2 days 23 hours ago (view)

    minor league baseball has to provide housing for minor leaguers starting 2022 (paid for by MLB parent clubs).  this is HUGE news and will make it possible for guys to stick around longer without having to quit the game just to earn a basic living.  for minor league players working in expensive housing markets this is a life saver.

    activist players from the OAK and LAA minor league teams as well as minor league player labor advocacy organizations were a huge part of making this happen.  good work.

     

  • bradsbeard 3 days 3 hours ago (view)

    Did you have any occasion to observe Pedro Ramirez? Not sure if he got into any games or not (now that I think of it, you wrote up at least one game he played in). 

     

  • Arizona Phil 3 days 8 hours ago (view)

    azbobbop: Certainly LHSPs Drew Gray and Luke Little have emerged as legit significant high-end SP prospects. RHSP Luis Devers has probably displaced Koen Moreno as the top "pitchability" SP prospect in the lower levels of the Cubs system. Tyler Schlaffer (another "pitchability" guy) also had an impressive Instructs, although Devers is a better SP prospect because he has a solid three-pitch mix and knows how to use it, while Schlaffer has just the 92-94 FB & CV (although both are solid offerngs) and isn't as polished as Devers is.

     

  • Hagsag 3 days 15 hours ago (view)

    This is the first time I have heard about the four month program in November. 

     

  • azbobbop 3 days 21 hours ago (view)

    Phil, now that instructional scare finished, which players impressed you the most and who are disappointments.

     

  • tim815 4 days 1 hour ago (view)

    Cool. Should help his trade value if the bat plays.

     

  • Arizona Phil 4 days 3 hours ago (view)

    TIM: Peter Matt looks very comfortable at 3B. He is a classic "four-corner" guy (1B-3B-LF-RF).