Projected Post-2021 "Super Two" Players
An unsigned player under club control who has accrued at least three but less than six years of MLB Service Time is automatically eligible for salary arbitration.
Also, any unsigned player with at least two years but less than three years of MLB Service Time who accrued at least 86 days of MLB Service Time during the previous season can qualify for salary arbitration as a so-called "Super Two" if the player is among the top 22% in MLB Service Time of players in that group (rounded to the nearest whole number). And if two or more players are tied with the same MLB Service Time just above the "Super Two" threshold, all of the players with that accrued MLB ST would get "Super Two" status even if that means the number of players with "Super Two" status exceeds 22%.
Because it is based on a percentage, the "Super Two" threshold fluctuates from year-to-year (it was two years plus 125 days or 2+125 MLB ST post-2020, 2+115 post-2019, 2+134 MLB ST post-2018, 2+123 post-2017, 2+131 post-2016, 2+130 post-2015, 2+133 post-2014, 2+122 post-2013, 2+140 post-2012, 2+145 post-2011, 2+122 in 2010, and 2+139 in 2009), but the threshold has generally gone down whenever a new CBA is signed, because the percentage of players who automatically qualify for "Super Two" status has increased with each new CBA.
Besides gaining the right to request salary arbitration and have that right four times instead of just three times, being a "Super Two" player also means the player can elect free-agency if outrighted even though he has not yet accrued three years of MLB Service Time and even if he has not been outrighted previously in his career (however, unlike a player who has accrued at least three years of MLB Service Time and/or has been outrighted previously in his career and who therefore has the option to elect free-agency immediately or else defer the choice until after the conclusion of the MLB regular season, a "Super Two ' player who has not been outrighted previously in his career must make his choice immediately upon being outrighted).
At present there are 158 players on MLB rosters who are projected to fit the criteria of a player who has accrued at least two years but less than three years of MLB Service Time with at least 86 days of MLB Service Time accrued in the 2021 MLB regular season. So that means that 22% of the 158 (34.76 rounded to the nearest whole number, which is 35) will be at or above the Super Two threshold.and will have "Super Two" status post-2021. However, more than one player has accrued MLB Service Time equaling the projected post-2021 "Super Two" threshhold, so 36 players will actually qualify as a "Super Two" player post-2021.
Sometimes a player petitions (successfully) to have his listed MLB Service Time adjusted (like due to an injury that occurred before the player was optioned to the minors, or because a player was optioned prior to game time or after the start of a game, both of which would impact the player's service time and thus could impact the number of players who are in the macro group and how many of the players in the group acquire "Super Two" status), so the MLB Service Time listed below is unofficial.
TOP 22% OF PLAYERS WITH BETWEEN TWO & THREE YEARS OF MLB SERVICE TIME POST-2021:
Jon Berti, RHP (MIA) - 2+168
Luis Guillorme, INF (NYM) - 2+167
Josh James, RHP (HOU) - 2+166
Bryan Reynolds, OF (PIT) - 2+163
Framber Valdez, LHP (HOU) - 2+163
Vladimir Guerrero Jr, 1B (TOR) - 2+157
Tim Mayza, LHP (TOR) - 2+156
Brett Martin, LHP (TEX) - 2+151
Nick Senzel, OF (CIN) - 2+150
Harold Castro, INF-OF (DET) - 2+141
Willians Astudillo, C-1B-3B (MIN) - 2+140
Nicky Lopez, INF (KC) - 2+139
Austin Riley, 3B (ATL) - 2+138
Magneuris Sierra, OF (MIA) - 2+138
Pierce Johnson, RHP (SD) - 2+137
Jimmy Cordero, RHP (CHW) - 2+136
Cal Quantrill, RHP (CLE) - 2+132
Cavan Biggio, INF (TOR) - 2+129
Mike Yastrzemski, OF (SF) - 2+128
Andrew Stevenson, OF (WAS) - 2+127
Austin Voth, RHP (WAS) - 2+127
Jeff Brigham, RHP (MIA) - 2+126
Tanner Rainey, RHP (WAS) - 2+126
Trent Thornton, RHP (TOR) - 2+126
Taylor Hearn LHP (TEX) - 2+122
Luis Arraez, INF (MIN) - 2+121
Josh Taylor, LHP (BOS) - 2+121
Miguel Diaz, RHP (SD) - 2+120
Luis Urias, INF (MIL) - 2+120
Josh Naylor, OF (CLE) - 2+118
Luis Torrens, C (SEA) - 2+117
Peter Lambert, RHP (COL) - 2+116
Kolby Allard, LHP (TEX) - 2+114
Tommy Edman, INF (STL) - 2+114
Colin Poche, LHP (TB) - 2+114
Rowan Wick, RHP (CUBS) - 2+114
PROJECTED SUPER TWO CUT-OFF - 2+114
Yordan Alvarez, OF (HOU) - 2+113
Myles Straw, OF (CLE) - 2+112
Austin Gomber, LHP (COL) - 2+111
So if it remains unchanged, 2+114 MLB ST will be the post-2021 "Super Two" threshold cut-off, and it would be the lowest Super Two cut-off in MLB history.
Bryan Reynolds, Framber Valdez, Vladimir Guerrero Jr, Austin Riley, Tommy Edman, and Cal Quantrill won't have to worry, but for a number of the other players on the above list, being a "Super Two" ain't necessarily so super. In many cases, a club will either release or non-tender the player rather than risk going to arbitration with him. And even for those players who are tendered a contract, becoming arbitration-eligible a year early can make a player more likely to be shopped in a trade, especially by a club with payroll issues.
crunch 4 hours 31 min ago (view)
gil hodges, jim kaat, minnie minoso, tony oliva, buck oneil, and bud fowler new HOF members.
dick allen fell 1 vote short.
Hagsag 1 day 7 hours ago (view)
Phil, is the 3 weeks camp going on now?
Arizona Phil 1 day 10 hours ago (view)
The Cubs have signed free-agent LHP Stephen Gonsalves to a 2022 minor league contract.
If he were to be added to the MLB 40-man roster at some point in 2022, he has no minor league options left and he has Article XX-D rights (he can elect free-agency if outrighted).
So 78 Cubs minor leaguers are now eligible for selection in the 2021 Rule 5 Draft.
Also, the Cubs off-season minor league Domestic Reserve List now stands at 173 (17 slots are open).
Arizona Phil 2 days 52 min ago (view)
jdrnym: That's correct.
Under the new rules, the 38-man AAA reserve list is now only used beginning on the date reserve lists are filed in November and extending up through the conclusion of the Rule 5 Draft. Then after the conclusion of the Rule 5 Draft, everybody goes back into the off-season 190-man Domestic Reserve List hopper.
jdrnym 2 days 4 hours ago (view)
Phil, can you settle a Twitter discussion? A team can only select players in the minor league phase of the Rule 5 Draft until its 38-man Triple-A reserve list is full, correct? Don't believe this changed with the latest Major League Rules that introduced the Domestic Reserve List and eliminated individual level reserve lists during the offseason.
crunch 2 days 8 hours ago (view)
"Mark Berman of FOX 26 in Houston reports that Carlos Correa's agent has been contacted by the Astros, Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, Cubs and Braves.
It's not clear when the contact took place or what level of interest each club has."
...with the yanks and dodgers both with piles of cash and a bit of need, i wouldn't get too stoked...but at least there seems to be some interest in what his market is.
Arizona Phil 2 days 12 hours ago (view)
Stroman's salary escalators apply to 2024, so if Stroman reaches 160 IP in either 2022 or 2023 (but not both) it adds $2M to his 2024 salary, and if he reaches 160 IP in both 2022 and 2023 it would add $4M to his to 2024 salary.
So he gets $25M in both 2022 and 2023 (that's locked-in), and then either $21M, $23M , or $25M in 2024, depending upon whether he reaches his salary escalators in 2022 and/or 2023.
Arizona Phil 2 days 12 hours ago (view)
W-RAT: I should also mention that the Cubs cannot outright David Bote while he is injured or rehabbing from an injury, except during a window starting on the day after the conclusion of the MLB regular season up until the day that off-season reserve lists must be filed (normaly 11/20, but it was 11/19 in 2021 because 11/20 fell on a Saturday, and it will be 11/18 in 2022 because 11/20 will fall on a Sunday).
Arizona Phil 2 days 12 hours ago (view)
W-RAT: The Cubs can outright David Bote (if he is not claimed off waivers) once the transaction freeze is lifted. That's not a problem.
If he is outrighted and then elects free-agency, he would forfeit what remains of his contract - AS LONG AS - the contract is not fully guaranteed.
If the contract is fully guaranteed he would likely elect free-agency and the Cubs would be on the hook for what remains of his salary, offset by the MLB minimum salary if he were to sign an MLB deal with another club.
crunch 2 days 17 hours ago (view)
kristin call has been named GM of the Myrtle Beach Pelicans. she's been the assistant/associate GM for a few years and was formally a marketing director for the team.
she's been involved in baseball for a living for 16+ years.
Wrigley Rat 2 days 23 hours ago (view)
Hey Phil - Could David Bote be outrighted at any point before the start of the season (obviously not now while players are being locked out). I wonder because if someone claimed him, oh well. If he elected free agency, wouldn't that void his contract? These are the thoughts going through my head as I look to open up another 40-man spot, and Bote will be out until at least May.
I've read your 40-man tag for him, but I'm not quite smart enough to figure this out! :) Thanks!
crunch 3 days 4 hours ago (view)
Jeff Passan @JeffPassan
Marcus Stroman signed a three-year, $71 million contract with the Chicago Cubs that includes an opt out after the second season, sources tell ESPN. He’ll make $25 million in 2022, $25 million in 2023 and $21 million in 2024. It includes $2M escalators for 160 IP in ‘22 and ‘23.
Arizona Phil 3 days 7 hours ago (view)
The Cubs have re-signed RHRP Jonathan Holder and C-INF P.J. Higgins to 2022 minor league contracts, presumably with an NRI to MLB Spring Training.
They will be Rule 5 Draft-eligible, if and when there is a Rule 5 Draft.
Dolorous Jon Lester 3 days 16 hours ago (view)
Owners' stooge Bobby Manfred coming out swinging at the players with his statement about the owners instituting a lockout.
Arizona Phil 3 days 22 hours ago (view)
The Cubs re-signed OF Michael Hermosillo to a 2022 Major League contract just prior to the midnight Wednesday MLB transaction freeze.
Hermosillo was non-tendered on Tuesday because he was a Rule 5 Draft-Excluded Player, and if he had remained on the 40 the Cubs would not have been able to outright him to the minors any earlier than 20 days prior to MLB opening Day.
crunch 4 days 3 hours ago (view)
we shouldn't, especially with how much payroll room for 2024+ this top-costing-for-fans team with a heavily monitized ballpark in a major media market has.
backloaded contracts aren't exactly groundbreaking new things...neither are cheap-ass owners. i don't expect them to compete every year, but i expect them to try after a punt season where they traded away the core. NYY, NYM, LAD, LAA, BOS, etc. don't seem to have trouble doing this even if it means throwing a bit of money around...