Projected Post-2021 "Super Two" Players

An unsigned player under club control who has accrued at least three but less than six years of MLB Service Time is automatically eligible for salary arbitration.

Also, any unsigned player with at least two years but less than three years of MLB Service Time who accrued at least 86 days of MLB Service Time during the previous season can qualify for salary arbitration as a so-called "Super Two" if the player is among the top 22% in MLB Service Time of players in that group (rounded to the nearest whole number). And if  two or more players are tied with the same MLB Service Time just above the "Super Two" threshold, all of the players with that accrued MLB ST would get "Super Two" status even if that means the number of players with "Super Two" status exceeds 22%.

Because it is based on a percentage, the "Super Two" threshold fluctuates from year-to-year (it was two years plus 125 days or 2+125 MLB ST post-2020, 2+115 post-2019, 2+134 MLB ST post-2018, 2+123 post-2017, 2+131 post-2016, 2+130 post-2015, 2+133 post-2014, 2+122 post-2013, 2+140 post-2012, 2+145 post-2011, 2+122 in 2010, and 2+139 in 2009), but the threshold has generally gone down whenever a new CBA is signed, because the percentage of players who automatically qualify for "Super Two" status has increased with each new CBA.

Besides gaining the right to request salary arbitration and have that right four times instead of just three times, being a "Super Two" player also means the player can elect free-agency if outrighted even though he has not yet accrued three years of MLB Service Time and even if he has not been outrighted previously in his career (however, unlike a player who has accrued at least three years of MLB Service Time and/or has been outrighted previously in his career and who therefore has the option to elect free-agency immediately or else defer the choice until after the conclusion of the MLB regular season, a "Super Two ' player who has not been outrighted previously in his career must make his choice immediately upon being outrighted). 

At present there are 158 players on MLB rosters who are projected to fit the criteria of a player who has accrued at least two years but less than three years of MLB Service Time with at least 86 days of MLB Service Time accrued in the 2021 MLB regular season. So that means that 22% of the 158 (34.76 rounded to the nearest whole number, which is 35) will be at or above the Super Two threshold.and will have "Super Two" status post-2021. However, more than one player has accrued MLB Service Time equaling the projected post-2021 "Super Two" threshhold, so 36 players will actually qualify as a "Super Two" player post-2021.

Sometimes a player petitions (successfully) to have his listed MLB Service Time adjusted (like due to an injury that occurred before the player was optioned to the minors, or because a player was optioned prior to game time or after the start of a game, both of which would impact the player's service time and thus could impact the number of players who are in the macro group and how many of the players in the group acquire "Super Two" status), so the MLB Service Time listed below is unofficial.

TOP 22% OF PLAYERS WITH BETWEEN TWO & THREE YEARS OF MLB SERVICE TIME POST-2021
Jon Berti, RHP (MIA) - 2+168 
Luis Guillorme, INF (NYM) - 2+167
Josh James, RHP (HOU) - 2+166
Bryan Reynolds, OF (PIT) - 2+163
Framber Valdez, LHP (HOU) - 2+163
Vladimir Guerrero Jr, 1B (TOR) - 2+157 
Tim Mayza, LHP (TOR) - 2+156 
Brett Martin, LHP (TEX) - 2+151
Nick Senzel, OF (CIN) - 2+150 
Harold Castro, INF-OF (DET) - 2+141 
Willians Astudillo, C-1B-3B (MIN) - 2+140 
Nicky Lopez, INF (KC) - 2+139 
Austin Riley, 3B (ATL) - 2+138 
Magneuris Sierra, OF (MIA) - 2+138 
Pierce Johnson, RHP (SD) - 2+137 
Jimmy Cordero, RHP (CHW) - 2+136 
Cal Quantrill, RHP (CLE) - 2+132 
Cavan Biggio, INF (TOR) - 2+129 
Mike Yastrzemski, OF (SF) - 2+128 
Andrew Stevenson, OF (WAS) - 2+127 
Austin Voth, RHP (WAS) - 2+127 
Jeff Brigham, RHP (MIA) - 2+126 
Tanner Rainey, RHP (WAS) - 2+126 
Trent Thornton, RHP (TOR) - 2+126 
Taylor Hearn LHP (TEX) - 2+122 
Luis Arraez, INF (MIN) - 2+121
Josh Taylor, LHP (BOS) - 2+121
Miguel Diaz, RHP (SD) - 2+120
Luis Urias, INF (MIL) - 2+120  
Josh Naylor, OF (CLE) - 2+118 
Luis Torrens, C (SEA) - 2+117 
Peter Lambert, RHP (COL) - 2+116 
Kolby Allard, LHP (TEX) - 2+114
Tommy Edman, INF (STL) - 2+114 
Colin Poche, LHP (TB) - 2+114 
Rowan Wick, RHP (CUBS) - 2+114
++++++++++++++++++++++
PROJECTED SUPER TWO CUT-OFF - 2+114
++++++++++++++++++++++
Yordan Alvarez, OF (HOU) - 2+113 
Myles Straw, OF (CLE) - 2+112
Austin Gomber, LHP (COL) - 2+111 

So if it remains unchanged, 2+114 MLB ST will be the post-2021 "Super Two" threshold cut-off, and it would be the lowest Super Two cut-off in MLB history. 

Bryan Reynolds, Framber Valdez, Vladimir Guerrero Jr, Austin Riley, Tommy Edman, and Cal Quantrill won't have to worry, but for a number of the other players on the above list, being a "Super Two" ain't necessarily so super. In many cases, a club will either release or non-tender the player rather than risk going to arbitration with him. And even for those players who are tendered a contract, becoming arbitration-eligible a year early can make a player more likely to be shopped in a trade, especially by a club with payroll issues.  

Comments

btw, gotta love the banner photo showing white cleats with Wrigley mud stuck to them. Great choice (and very 3D).

How do I find the site for Caribbean winter baseball? Looking for rosters, box scores and etc.

It seems to be up to individual country origin promoters at this point, many not english translated.  coverage from mlb/milb was limited in 2018 and they seem to have given up in 2019.  last year was the same thing even though they were operating a nearly post-covid type structure.

we start tomorrow and nothing seems to be in place for casual english-speaking fans (that i know of).

Thanks crunch.

Heartwarming Trent Giambrone story in Tribune...

https://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/cubs/ct-chicago-cubs-trent-giambro...

"Dad, that's yours." (...gets misty eyed)

sahadev sharma (the atlantic) says w.contreras is all but gone via trade if jed can't get an extension worked out.

unless you're a yan gomes fan, the catcher market is nearly non-existent this off-season.

if this gets a bit more dire looking for the cubs i'll try to compile a list of 18-21 year old outside-of-top-10 team tallent and guys with serious injuries missing all of next season as potential cubs trade targets.

Kyle Hendricks and Willson Contreras are the last two guys on the 40 the Cubs can trade for decent prospects, so it would seem likely that they will do that prior to the start of the 2022 season.

And then the Cubs will wait until the end of the off-season and try and sign free-agents who didn't get what they thought they would get in the marketplace (and who aren't saddled with a QO) to short-term / high AAV deals, and then flip them at the trade deadline (like they did with Bryant, Rizzo, Baez, Kimbrel, Chafin, Pederson, et al this past season) for even more prospects if they are not in contention to win the division at the 2022 trade deadline.

I would expect the Cubs to eventually sign two or three SP (two if they don't trade Hendricks, or three if they do), two or three RP (including two LHRP), a SS, and a catcher (or two catchers if they trade Contreras) to one or (max) two-year deals. 

Just because the Cubs have a lot of money to spend and say they are willing to spend it doesn't mean they will offer anyone a long-term contract. There is a reason why the Cubs jumped at the chance to trade Yu Darvish (who was the Cubs #1 SP in 2020, but who had three years left on his deal coming into the 2021 season) last off-season. 

Depending on how the new CBA might change free-agency and salary arbitration as it relates to MLB Service Time, the only kind of long-term deal the Cubs might consider going forward is maybe if Brennen Davis comes up next season and hits the ground running and looks like the real deal, then the Cubs might offer him an eight or nine-year contract that would buy out his arbitration years and two or three free-agent years, but would also protect the Cubs with multiple club option years (similar to the Anthony Rizzo contract extension in 2013, or like the extension Ronald Acuna signed with the Braves in 2019). 

cubs gonna have to add a new "middle-A" minor league system.

they could probably field 4 full teams to play against themselves if they shift both hendricks and contreras.

seriously though...yeah, i expect a slew of 1-year deals that straddle the line between being competitive and dumping guys if needed.  there seems to be something going on with the cubs and SS, though.  between rumors about higher profile SSs and hoerner talking about perhaps playing all over the diamond rather than just SS there may be something to it.

also, as a contreras fan, i would love to see him get extended.

I'm honestly not sure Hendricks has any trade value right now (or not as much as Jed would want to part with him). Think the soonest they would move him would be the trade deadline. Willson might have value just because there are no good FA catchers available. But even his value is down, which might make now a decent time to extend him. 

BRADSBEARD: I think if the Cubs trade Contreras (and I believe they will, and before Opening Day), they will want to get a catching prospect back in the deal. 

Guys like Austin Wells (NYY), Cal Raleigh (SEA), Connor Wong (BOS), or Korey Lee (HOU) would be just fine with me.  

If he is uable to extend Contreras, I certainly HOPE he will trade him for the best prospects he can get.  If we can not keep him, at least let's get something in return, as we did with Bryat, Rizzo and Baez.

BRADSBEARD:  I think one thing that hurt Hendricks was that he was surrounded in the rotation by other soft-tossing RHSP and that enabled opposing hitters to get locked-in to that type of pitcher. Also, Hendricks went south right after the trade deadline. Possibly the tanking got inside his head. 

l see the Angels (in particular) as a very likely destination for Hendricks.

The Angels are absolutely desperate for starting pitchers and they can't do a tear-down and rebuild because of Trout, Ohtani, and Rondon, Hendricks is under control for three more seasons at a reasonable AAV, Joe Maddon knows him very well and trusts him, he's from Newport Beach, and the Cubs have shown a willingness to take back a package of young unproven position players in a trade involving a SP (Darvish).

The Cubs played the Angels a lot in Instructs and had a scout specifically following the Angels, so I suspect guys like CF Jordyn Adams (Angels 2018 1st round pick), SS Jeremiah Jackson (Angels 2nd round pick in 2018), INF Arol Vera (a switch-hitting $2M IFA signed by the Angels out of Venezuela in 2019), OF David Calabrese (Angels 2020 4th round pick and a teammate of Owen Caissie on Team Canada 18U team in 2018), and 3B Werner Blakely (Angels 2020 4th round pick), as well as maybe one of the 20 pitchers the Angels selected in the 2021 draft (when they drafted - ONLY - pitchers) might be on the Cubs radar.

I can tell you from having watched the Angels a lot in Instructs that (just like the Padres a year ago) they are fairly well-stocked at the lower levels. In fact, I'd take Jackson, Vera, and either Adams or Calabrese (Angels choice) back for Hendricks in a heartbeat, and the Angels can keep all of their 2021 pitcher draft picks.   

I believe if it happens it will be a quantity trade involving players quite a ways away from MLB, just like the Darvish trade with the Padres. So the Angels wouldn't have to part with Detmers, Adell, or Marsh, and they wouldn't have to give up THAT many prospects (probably just three, and quite possibly no pitchers) for three years of Kyle Hendricks. 

I LUV Swami AZ PHIL's crystal ball especially the week before Halloween.

Reeses peanutbutter cups, m&m's, snickers or... (fill in the blank)

Man, trading Willson and Hendricks would leave Heyward as the last one from 2016. Would be hard to believe literally every Cub fan will be thrilled to see the last guy from the title team leave.

Also all of those things mentioned (trading the two, short term deals with guys who are likely middling or decent) screams "don't pay any attention to the Cubs this year"

in that case they should trade heyward, too.

hahahahahaha.  phew.  hah.  yeah.

I'm sure he's working with the new hitting coach, this is definitely the guy who will fix what the other 4 havent! Whenever this new guy gets hired anyway!!
 Can't wait for the obligatory "best shape of his life" nonsense if spring training happens.

i will give him props for one thing...

this year especially, he seems to have taken on a coach/mentor-like role.  he cheerleads others and talks to guys in the dugout after ABs or when he's benched and they're done with their fielding inning.

he's at least giving some value back to the team rather than retreating into himself and being frustrated at his lack of good numbers.  i'd rather have a surly asshole with good numbers, but we got what we got.

"...a surly asshole with good numbers"

How come Albert Belle immediately comes to mind when I read that?

fernando vina agrees.

Milton Bradley?

Don't know if he qualifies... good numbers weren't his thing in Chicago.

true.

.

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  • crunch 4 hours 10 min ago (view)

    gil hodges, jim kaat, minnie minoso, tony oliva, buck oneil, and bud fowler new HOF members.

    dick allen fell 1 vote short.

     

  • Hagsag 1 day 7 hours ago (view)

    Phil, is the 3 weeks camp going on now?

     

  • Arizona Phil 1 day 9 hours ago (view)

    The Cubs have signed free-agent LHP Stephen Gonsalves to a 2022 minor league contract.

    If he were to be added to the MLB 40-man roster at some point in 2022, he has no minor league options left and he has Article XX-D rights (he can elect free-agency if outrighted).

    So 78 Cubs minor leaguers are now eligible for selection in the 2021 Rule 5 Draft.

    Also, the Cubs off-season minor league Domestic Reserve List now stands at 173 (17 slots are open).

     

  • Arizona Phil 2 days 31 min ago (view)

    jdrnym: That's correct.

    Under the new rules, the 38-man AAA reserve list is now only used beginning on the date reserve lists are filed in November and extending up through the conclusion of the Rule 5 Draft. Then after the conclusion of the Rule 5 Draft, everybody goes back into the off-season 190-man Domestic Reserve List hopper. 

     

  • jdrnym 2 days 3 hours ago (view)

    Phil, can you settle a Twitter discussion? A team can only select players in the minor league phase of the Rule 5 Draft until its 38-man Triple-A reserve list is full, correct? Don't believe this changed with the latest Major League Rules that introduced the Domestic Reserve List and eliminated individual level reserve lists during the offseason.

     

  • crunch 2 days 7 hours ago (view)

    "Mark Berman of FOX 26 in Houston reports that Carlos Correa's agent has been contacted by the Astros, Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, Cubs and Braves.

    It's not clear when the contact took place or what level of interest each club has."

    ...with the yanks and dodgers both with piles of cash and a bit of need, i wouldn't get too stoked...but at least there seems to be some interest in what his market is.

     

  • Arizona Phil 2 days 12 hours ago (view)

    Stroman's salary escalators apply to 2024, so if Stroman reaches 160 IP in either 2022 or 2023 (but not both) it adds $2M to his 2024 salary, and if he reaches 160 IP in both 2022 and 2023 it would add $4M to his to 2024 salary.

    So he gets $25M in both 2022 and 2023 (that's locked-in), and then either $21M, $23M , or $25M in 2024, depending upon whether he reaches his salary escalators in 2022 and/or 2023. 

     

  • Arizona Phil 2 days 12 hours ago (view)

    W-RAT: I should also mention that the Cubs cannot outright David Bote while he is injured or rehabbing from an injury, except during a window starting on the day after the conclusion of the MLB regular season up until the day that off-season reserve lists must be filed (normaly 11/20, but it was 11/19 in 2021 because 11/20 fell on a Saturday, and it will be 11/18 in 2022 because 11/20 will fall on a Sunday). 

     

  • Arizona Phil 2 days 12 hours ago (view)

    W-RAT: The Cubs can outright David Bote (if he is not claimed off waivers) once the transaction freeze is lifted. That's not a problem. 

    If he is outrighted and then elects free-agency, he would forfeit what remains of his contract - AS LONG AS - the contract is not fully guaranteed. 

    If the contract is fully guaranteed he would likely elect free-agency and the Cubs would be on the hook for what remains of his salary, offset by the MLB minimum salary if he were to sign an MLB deal with another club.

     

  • crunch 2 days 16 hours ago (view)

    kristin call has been named GM of the Myrtle Beach Pelicans.  she's been the assistant/associate GM for a few years and was formally a marketing director for the team.

    she's been involved in baseball for a living for 16+ years.

     

  • Wrigley Rat 2 days 22 hours ago (view)

    Hey Phil - Could David Bote be outrighted at any point before the start of the season (obviously not now while players are being locked out). I wonder because if someone claimed him, oh well. If he elected free agency, wouldn't that void his contract? These are the thoughts going through my head as I look to open up another 40-man spot, and Bote will be out until at least May.

    I've read your 40-man tag for him, but I'm not quite smart enough to figure this out! :) Thanks!

     

  • crunch 3 days 4 hours ago (view)

    Jeff Passan @JeffPassan
    Marcus Stroman signed a three-year, $71 million contract with the Chicago Cubs that includes an opt out after the second season, sources tell ESPN. He’ll make $25 million in 2022, $25 million in 2023 and $21 million in 2024. It includes $2M escalators for 160 IP in ‘22 and ‘23.

     

  • Arizona Phil 3 days 7 hours ago (view)

    The Cubs have re-signed RHRP Jonathan Holder and C-INF P.J. Higgins to 2022 minor league contracts, presumably with an NRI to MLB Spring Training. 

    They will be Rule 5 Draft-eligible, if and when there is a Rule 5 Draft. 

     

  • Dolorous Jon Lester 3 days 16 hours ago (view)

    Owners' stooge Bobby Manfred coming out swinging at the players with his statement about the owners instituting a lockout.

     

  • Arizona Phil 3 days 21 hours ago (view)

    The Cubs re-signed OF Michael Hermosillo to a 2022 Major League contract just prior to the midnight Wednesday MLB transaction freeze. 

    Hermosillo was non-tendered on Tuesday because he was a Rule 5 Draft-Excluded Player, and if he had remained on the 40 the Cubs would not have been able to outright him to the minors any earlier than 20 days prior to MLB opening Day. 

     

  • crunch 4 days 2 hours ago (view)

    we shouldn't, especially with how much payroll room for 2024+ this top-costing-for-fans team with a heavily monitized ballpark in a major media market has.

    backloaded contracts aren't exactly groundbreaking new things...neither are cheap-ass owners.  i don't expect them to compete every year, but i expect them to try after a punt season where they traded away the core.  NYY, NYM, LAD, LAA, BOS, etc. don't seem to have trouble doing this even if it means throwing a bit of money around...