Projected Post-2021 "Super Two" Players

An unsigned player under club control who has accrued at least three but less than six years of MLB Service Time is automatically eligible for salary arbitration.

Also, any unsigned player with at least two years but less than three years of MLB Service Time who accrued at least 86 days of MLB Service Time during the previous season can qualify for salary arbitration as a so-called "Super Two" if the player is among the top 22% in MLB Service Time of players in that group (rounded to the nearest whole number). And if  two or more players are tied with the same MLB Service Time just above the "Super Two" threshold, all of the players with that accrued MLB ST would get "Super Two" status even if that means the number of players with "Super Two" status exceeds 22%.

Because it is based on a percentage, the "Super Two" threshold fluctuates from year-to-year (it was two years plus 125 days or 2+125 MLB ST post-2020, 2+115 post-2019, 2+134 MLB ST post-2018, 2+123 post-2017, 2+131 post-2016, 2+130 post-2015, 2+133 post-2014, 2+122 post-2013, 2+140 post-2012, 2+145 post-2011, 2+122 in 2010, and 2+139 in 2009), but the threshold has generally gone down whenever a new CBA is signed, because the percentage of players who automatically qualify for "Super Two" status has increased with each new CBA.

Besides gaining the right to request salary arbitration and have that right four times instead of just three times, being a "Super Two" player also means the player can elect free-agency if outrighted even though he has not yet accrued three years of MLB Service Time and even if he has not been outrighted previously in his career (however, unlike a player who has accrued at least three years of MLB Service Time and/or has been outrighted previously in his career and who therefore has the option to elect free-agency immediately or else defer the choice until after the conclusion of the MLB regular season, a "Super Two ' player who has not been outrighted previously in his career must make his choice immediately upon being outrighted). 

At present there are 158 players on MLB rosters who are projected to fit the criteria of a player who has accrued at least two years but less than three years of MLB Service Time with at least 86 days of MLB Service Time accrued in the 2021 MLB regular season. So that means that 22% of the 158 (34.76 rounded to the nearest whole number, which is 35) will be at or above the Super Two threshold.and will have "Super Two" status post-2021. However, more than one player has accrued MLB Service Time equaling the projected post-2021 "Super Two" threshhold, so 36 players will actually qualify as a "Super Two" player post-2021.

Sometimes a player petitions (successfully) to have his listed MLB Service Time adjusted (like due to an injury that occurred before the player was optioned to the minors, or because a player was optioned prior to game time or after the start of a game, both of which would impact the player's service time and thus could impact the number of players who are in the macro group and how many of the players in the group acquire "Super Two" status), so the MLB Service Time listed below is unofficial.

TOP 22% OF PLAYERS WITH BETWEEN TWO & THREE YEARS OF MLB SERVICE TIME POST-2021
Jon Berti, RHP (MIA) - 2+168 
Luis Guillorme, INF (NYM) - 2+167
Josh James, RHP (HOU) - 2+166
Bryan Reynolds, OF (PIT) - 2+163
Framber Valdez, LHP (HOU) - 2+163
Vladimir Guerrero Jr, 1B (TOR) - 2+157 
Tim Mayza, LHP (TOR) - 2+156 
Brett Martin, LHP (TEX) - 2+151
Nick Senzel, OF (CIN) - 2+150 
Harold Castro, INF-OF (DET) - 2+141 
Willians Astudillo, C-1B-3B (MIN) - 2+140 
Nicky Lopez, INF (KC) - 2+139 
Austin Riley, 3B (ATL) - 2+138 
Magneuris Sierra, OF (MIA) - 2+138 
Pierce Johnson, RHP (SD) - 2+137 
Jimmy Cordero, RHP (CHW) - 2+136 
Cal Quantrill, RHP (CLE) - 2+132 
Cavan Biggio, INF (TOR) - 2+129 
Mike Yastrzemski, OF (SF) - 2+128 
Andrew Stevenson, OF (WAS) - 2+127 
Austin Voth, RHP (WAS) - 2+127 
Jeff Brigham, RHP (MIA) - 2+126 
Tanner Rainey, RHP (WAS) - 2+126 
Trent Thornton, RHP (TOR) - 2+126 
Taylor Hearn LHP (TEX) - 2+122 
Luis Arraez, INF (MIN) - 2+121
Josh Taylor, LHP (BOS) - 2+121
Miguel Diaz, RHP (SD) - 2+120
Luis Urias, INF (MIL) - 2+120  
Josh Naylor, OF (CLE) - 2+118 
Luis Torrens, C (SEA) - 2+117 
Peter Lambert, RHP (COL) - 2+116 
Kolby Allard, LHP (TEX) - 2+114
Tommy Edman, INF (STL) - 2+114 
Colin Poche, LHP (TB) - 2+114 
Rowan Wick, RHP (CUBS) - 2+114
++++++++++++++++++++++
PROJECTED SUPER TWO CUT-OFF - 2+114
++++++++++++++++++++++
Yordan Alvarez, OF (HOU) - 2+113 
Myles Straw, OF (CLE) - 2+112
Austin Gomber, LHP (COL) - 2+111 

So if it remains unchanged, 2+114 MLB ST will be the post-2021 "Super Two" threshold cut-off, and it would be the lowest Super Two cut-off in MLB history. 

Bryan Reynolds, Framber Valdez, Vladimir Guerrero Jr, Austin Riley, Tommy Edman, and Cal Quantrill won't have to worry, but for a number of the other players on the above list, being a "Super Two" ain't necessarily so super. In many cases, a club will either release or non-tender the player rather than risk going to arbitration with him. And even for those players who are tendered a contract, becoming arbitration-eligible a year early can make a player more likely to be shopped in a trade, especially by a club with payroll issues.  

Comments

btw, gotta love the banner photo showing white cleats with Wrigley mud stuck to them. Great choice (and very 3D).

How do I find the site for Caribbean winter baseball? Looking for rosters, box scores and etc.

It seems to be up to individual country origin promoters at this point, many not english translated.  coverage from mlb/milb was limited in 2018 and they seem to have given up in 2019.  last year was the same thing even though they were operating a nearly post-covid type structure.

we start tomorrow and nothing seems to be in place for casual english-speaking fans (that i know of).

Thanks crunch.

Heartwarming Trent Giambrone story in Tribune...

https://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/cubs/ct-chicago-cubs-trent-giambro...

"Dad, that's yours." (...gets misty eyed)

sahadev sharma (the atlantic) says w.contreras is all but gone via trade if jed can't get an extension worked out.

unless you're a yan gomes fan, the catcher market is nearly non-existent this off-season.

if this gets a bit more dire looking for the cubs i'll try to compile a list of 18-21 year old outside-of-top-10 team tallent and guys with serious injuries missing all of next season as potential cubs trade targets.

Kyle Hendricks and Willson Contreras are the last two guys on the 40 the Cubs can trade for decent prospects, so it would seem likely that they will do that prior to the start of the 2022 season.

And then the Cubs will wait until the end of the off-season and try and sign free-agents who didn't get what they thought they would get in the marketplace (and who aren't saddled with a QO) to short-term / high AAV deals, and then flip them at the trade deadline (like they did with Bryant, Rizzo, Baez, Kimbrel, Chafin, Pederson, et al this past season) for even more prospects if they are not in contention to win the division at the 2022 trade deadline.

I would expect the Cubs to eventually sign two or three SP (two if they don't trade Hendricks, or three if they do), two or three RP (including two LHRP), a SS, and a catcher (or two catchers if they trade Contreras) to one or (max) two-year deals. 

Just because the Cubs have a lot of money to spend and say they are willing to spend it doesn't mean they will offer anyone a long-term contract. There is a reason why the Cubs jumped at the chance to trade Yu Darvish (who was the Cubs #1 SP in 2020, but who had three years left on his deal coming into the 2021 season) last off-season. 

Depending on how the new CBA might change free-agency and salary arbitration as it relates to MLB Service Time, the only kind of long-term deal the Cubs might consider going forward is maybe if Brennen Davis comes up next season and hits the ground running and looks like the real deal, then the Cubs might offer him an eight or nine-year contract that would buy out his arbitration years and two or three free-agent years, but would also protect the Cubs with multiple club option years (similar to the Anthony Rizzo contract extension in 2013, or like the extension Ronald Acuna signed with the Braves in 2019). 

cubs gonna have to add a new "middle-A" minor league system.

they could probably field 4 full teams to play against themselves if they shift both hendricks and contreras.

seriously though...yeah, i expect a slew of 1-year deals that straddle the line between being competitive and dumping guys if needed.  there seems to be something going on with the cubs and SS, though.  between rumors about higher profile SSs and hoerner talking about perhaps playing all over the diamond rather than just SS there may be something to it.

also, as a contreras fan, i would love to see him get extended.

I'm honestly not sure Hendricks has any trade value right now (or not as much as Jed would want to part with him). Think the soonest they would move him would be the trade deadline. Willson might have value just because there are no good FA catchers available. But even his value is down, which might make now a decent time to extend him. 

BRADSBEARD: I think if the Cubs trade Contreras (and I believe they will, and before Opening Day), they will want to get a catching prospect back in the deal. 

Guys like Austin Wells (NYY), Cal Raleigh (SEA), Connor Wong (BOS), or Korey Lee (HOU) would be just fine with me.  

If he is uable to extend Contreras, I certainly HOPE he will trade him for the best prospects he can get.  If we can not keep him, at least let's get something in return, as we did with Bryat, Rizzo and Baez.

BRADSBEARD:  I think one thing that hurt Hendricks was that he was surrounded in the rotation by other soft-tossing RHSP and that enabled opposing hitters to get locked-in to that type of pitcher. Also, Hendricks went south right after the trade deadline. Possibly the tanking got inside his head. 

l see the Angels (in particular) as a very likely destination for Hendricks.

The Angels are absolutely desperate for starting pitchers and they can't do a tear-down and rebuild because of Trout, Ohtani, and Rondon, Hendricks is under control for three more seasons at a reasonable AAV, Joe Maddon knows him very well and trusts him, he's from Newport Beach, and the Cubs have shown a willingness to take back a package of young unproven position players in a trade involving a SP (Darvish).

The Cubs played the Angels a lot in Instructs and had a scout specifically following the Angels, so I suspect guys like CF Jordyn Adams (Angels 2018 1st round pick), SS Jeremiah Jackson (Angels 2nd round pick in 2018), INF Arol Vera (a switch-hitting $2M IFA signed by the Angels out of Venezuela in 2019), OF David Calabrese (Angels 2020 4th round pick and a teammate of Owen Caissie on Team Canada 18U team in 2018), and 3B Werner Blakely (Angels 2020 4th round pick), as well as maybe one of the 20 pitchers the Angels selected in the 2021 draft (when they drafted - ONLY - pitchers) might be on the Cubs radar.

I can tell you from having watched the Angels a lot in Instructs that (just like the Padres a year ago) they are fairly well-stocked at the lower levels. In fact, I'd take Jackson, Vera, and either Adams or Calabrese (Angels choice) back for Hendricks in a heartbeat, and the Angels can keep all of their 2021 pitcher draft picks.   

I believe if it happens it will be a quantity trade involving players quite a ways away from MLB, just like the Darvish trade with the Padres. So the Angels wouldn't have to part with Detmers, Adell, or Marsh, and they wouldn't have to give up THAT many prospects (probably just three, and quite possibly no pitchers) for three years of Kyle Hendricks. 

I LUV Swami AZ PHIL's crystal ball especially the week before Halloween.

Reeses peanutbutter cups, m&m's, snickers or... (fill in the blank)

Man, trading Willson and Hendricks would leave Heyward as the last one from 2016. Would be hard to believe literally every Cub fan will be thrilled to see the last guy from the title team leave.

Also all of those things mentioned (trading the two, short term deals with guys who are likely middling or decent) screams "don't pay any attention to the Cubs this year"

in that case they should trade heyward, too.

hahahahahaha.  phew.  hah.  yeah.

I'm sure he's working with the new hitting coach, this is definitely the guy who will fix what the other 4 havent! Whenever this new guy gets hired anyway!!
 Can't wait for the obligatory "best shape of his life" nonsense if spring training happens.

i will give him props for one thing...

this year especially, he seems to have taken on a coach/mentor-like role.  he cheerleads others and talks to guys in the dugout after ABs or when he's benched and they're done with their fielding inning.

he's at least giving some value back to the team rather than retreating into himself and being frustrated at his lack of good numbers.  i'd rather have a surly asshole with good numbers, but we got what we got.

"...a surly asshole with good numbers"

How come Albert Belle immediately comes to mind when I read that?

fernando vina agrees.

Milton Bradley?

Don't know if he qualifies... good numbers weren't his thing in Chicago.

true.

.

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  • crunch 6 hours 55 min ago (view)

    corey seager signed a deal for 32.5m a year and that means carlos correa is having a really great day.

     

  • Dolorous Jon Lester 7 hours 30 min ago (view)

    Texas has a wildly expensive middle infield. They've also set the market really high for the remaining SS. And they did it single handedly.

     

  • crunch 8 hours 57 min ago (view)

    c.seager goes to TEX for 10/325.

    they've committed to spend 1/2 billion this week (marcus semien added, too).

    meanwhile, the cubs complained to the local paper about how their new multi-million dollar sports betting lounge isn't a casino and they sent out a "cyber monday" ad to offer the great deal of it costing nothing to get on the season tickets waiting list.

    it already is and will continue to be a hell of a 24 hours.  maybe the cubs will *shrug* i dunno...do something worth talking about.

     

  • crunch 13 hours 4 min ago (view)

    BA released their top-10 cubs prospects list...

    1. Brennen Davis

    2. Cristian Hernandez

    3. Brailyn Marquez

    4. Pete Crow-Armstrong

    5. Jordan Wicks

    6. Kevin Alcantara

    7. Caleb Kilian

    8. Owen Caissie

    9. DJ Herz

    10. Yohendrick Pinango

    reggie preciado got robbed.

     

  • crunch 13 hours 31 min ago (view)

    m.scherzer mets 3/130m (wow)

    that's more than the entire payroll for PIT last season per year and only a bit less than what BAL, CLE, and MIA paid out.

     

  • crunch 13 hours 37 min ago (view)

    both are equally useful to a baseball team.

     

  • Dolorous Jon Lester 14 hours 47 min ago (view)

    The violinist or the camera staring afficionado?

     

  • Hagsag 14 hours 48 min ago (view)

    Taylor Davis might be next.

     

  • Dolorous Jon Lester 15 hours 6 min ago (view)

    STOP THE PRESSES! They signed someone. Some random lefty RP named Locke St.John.

    Sounds like a Bond villain.

     

  • Dolorous Jon Lester 15 hours 7 min ago (view)

    That's a good way of looking at it. The race for the top draft pick is a pretty hardcore competition, too.

     

  • crunch 15 hours 47 min ago (view)

    hey, they're working hard as hell.

    just last week tom ricketts and other chicago sports team owners went out of their way to respond to a Tribune article calling sports betting lounges "casinos" by co-authoring a letter to the paper.

    DraftKings being happy seems to be the cubs #1 offseason priority.

     

  • Sonicwind75 16 hours 41 min ago (view)

    Just depends on what your definition of "being competitive" means.  Technically the Cubs (barring a strike) will be "competing" against other baseball teams and therefore will "be competitive".  

     

  • Dolorous Jon Lester 17 hours 2 min ago (view)

    Flurries of activity and Cubs crickets.

    BuT wE'rE tRyInG tO cOmPeTe!

     

  • Hagsag 20 hours 22 min ago (view)

    Hey, Jed didn't lie. He said this wasn't a rebuild.

     

  • crunch 1 day 7 hours ago (view)

    ...and that was fake.

    you can't even rely on a blue checkmark account anymore on twitter.  thanks world.

    okay, that was a real account (blue check) who retweeted someone they thought was real.  this is inception-level internet stupidity and the account he re-tweeted is now disabled.

     

  • crunch 1 day 8 hours ago (view)

    cubs weren't linked heavily, but m.semien is off the board to the rangers...7/175m

    trevor story seems to be the most cubs-linked middle IF'r, but i havent heard anything about story/cubs in weeks.