Projected Post-2021 "Super Two" Players
An unsigned player under club control who has accrued at least three but less than six years of MLB Service Time is automatically eligible for salary arbitration.
Also, any unsigned player with at least two years but less than three years of MLB Service Time who accrued at least 86 days of MLB Service Time during the previous season can qualify for salary arbitration as a so-called "Super Two" if the player is among the top 22% in MLB Service Time of players in that group (rounded to the nearest whole number). And if two or more players are tied with the same MLB Service Time just above the "Super Two" threshold, all of the players with that accrued MLB ST would get "Super Two" status even if that means the number of players with "Super Two" status exceeds 22%.
Because it is based on a percentage, the "Super Two" threshold fluctuates from year-to-year (it was two years plus 125 days or 2+125 MLB ST post-2020, 2+115 post-2019, 2+134 MLB ST post-2018, 2+123 post-2017, 2+131 post-2016, 2+130 post-2015, 2+133 post-2014, 2+122 post-2013, 2+140 post-2012, 2+145 post-2011, 2+122 in 2010, and 2+139 in 2009), but the threshold has generally gone down whenever a new CBA is signed, because the percentage of players who automatically qualify for "Super Two" status has increased with each new CBA.
Besides gaining the right to request salary arbitration and have that right four times instead of just three times, being a "Super Two" player also means the player can elect free-agency if outrighted even though he has not yet accrued three years of MLB Service Time and even if he has not been outrighted previously in his career (however, unlike a player who has accrued at least three years of MLB Service Time and/or has been outrighted previously in his career and who therefore has the option to elect free-agency immediately or else defer the choice until after the conclusion of the MLB regular season, a "Super Two ' player who has not been outrighted previously in his career must make his choice immediately upon being outrighted).
At present there are 158 players on MLB rosters who are projected to fit the criteria of a player who has accrued at least two years but less than three years of MLB Service Time with at least 86 days of MLB Service Time accrued in the 2021 MLB regular season. So that means that 22% of the 158 (34.76 rounded to the nearest whole number, which is 35) will be at or above the Super Two threshold.and will have "Super Two" status post-2021. However, more than one player has accrued MLB Service Time equaling the projected post-2021 "Super Two" threshhold, so 36 players will actually qualify as a "Super Two" player post-2021.
Sometimes a player petitions (successfully) to have his listed MLB Service Time adjusted (like due to an injury that occurred before the player was optioned to the minors, or because a player was optioned prior to game time or after the start of a game, both of which would impact the player's service time and thus could impact the number of players who are in the macro group and how many of the players in the group acquire "Super Two" status), so the MLB Service Time listed below is unofficial.
TOP 22% OF PLAYERS WITH BETWEEN TWO & THREE YEARS OF MLB SERVICE TIME POST-2021:
Jon Berti, RHP (MIA) - 2+168
Luis Guillorme, INF (NYM) - 2+167
Josh James, RHP (HOU) - 2+166
Bryan Reynolds, OF (PIT) - 2+163
Framber Valdez, LHP (HOU) - 2+163
Vladimir Guerrero Jr, 1B (TOR) - 2+157
Tim Mayza, LHP (TOR) - 2+156
Brett Martin, LHP (TEX) - 2+151
Nick Senzel, OF (CIN) - 2+150
Harold Castro, INF-OF (DET) - 2+141
Willians Astudillo, C-1B-3B (MIN) - 2+140
Nicky Lopez, INF (KC) - 2+139
Austin Riley, 3B (ATL) - 2+138
Magneuris Sierra, OF (MIA) - 2+138
Pierce Johnson, RHP (SD) - 2+137
Jimmy Cordero, RHP (CHW) - 2+136
Cal Quantrill, RHP (CLE) - 2+132
Cavan Biggio, INF (TOR) - 2+129
Mike Yastrzemski, OF (SF) - 2+128
Andrew Stevenson, OF (WAS) - 2+127
Austin Voth, RHP (WAS) - 2+127
Jeff Brigham, RHP (MIA) - 2+126
Tanner Rainey, RHP (WAS) - 2+126
Trent Thornton, RHP (TOR) - 2+126
Taylor Hearn LHP (TEX) - 2+122
Luis Arraez, INF (MIN) - 2+121
Josh Taylor, LHP (BOS) - 2+121
Miguel Diaz, RHP (SD) - 2+120
Luis Urias, INF (MIL) - 2+120
Josh Naylor, OF (CLE) - 2+118
Luis Torrens, C (SEA) - 2+117
Peter Lambert, RHP (COL) - 2+116
Kolby Allard, LHP (TEX) - 2+114
Tommy Edman, INF (STL) - 2+114
Colin Poche, LHP (TB) - 2+114
Rowan Wick, RHP (CUBS) - 2+114
PROJECTED SUPER TWO CUT-OFF - 2+114
Yordan Alvarez, OF (HOU) - 2+113
Myles Straw, OF (CLE) - 2+112
Austin Gomber, LHP (COL) - 2+111
So if it remains unchanged, 2+114 MLB ST will be the post-2021 "Super Two" threshold cut-off, and it would be the lowest Super Two cut-off in MLB history.
Bryan Reynolds, Framber Valdez, Vladimir Guerrero Jr, Austin Riley, Tommy Edman, and Cal Quantrill won't have to worry, but for a number of the other players on the above list, being a "Super Two" ain't necessarily so super. In many cases, a club will either release or non-tender the player rather than risk going to arbitration with him. And even for those players who are tendered a contract, becoming arbitration-eligible a year early can make a player more likely to be shopped in a trade, especially by a club with payroll issues.