Projected Post-2022 "Super Two" Players

An unsigned player under club control who has accrued at least three but less than six years of MLB Service Time is automatically eligible for salary arbitration.
Also, any unsigned player with at least two years but less than three years of MLB Service Time who accrued at least 86 days of MLB Service Time during the previous season can qualify for salary arbitration as a so-called "Super Two" if the player is among the top 22% in MLB Service Time of players in that group (rounded to the nearest whole number). And if two or more players are tied with the same MLB Service Time just above the "Super Two" threshold, all of the players with that accrued MLB ST would get "Super Two" status even if that means the number of players with "Super Two" status exceeds 22%.

Because it is based on a percentage, the "Super Two" threshold fluctuates from year-to-year (it was two years plus 116 days or 2+116 post-2021, 2+125 MLB ST post-2020, 2+115 post-2019, 2+134 MLB ST post-2018, 2+123 post-2017, 2+131 post-2016, 2+130 post-2015, 2+133 post-2014, 2+122 post-2013, 2+140 post-2012, 2+145 post-2011, 2+122 in 2010, and 2+139 in 2009).

Besides gaining the right to request salary arbitration and have that right four times instead of just three times, being a "Super Two" player also means the player can elect free-agency if outrighted even though he has not yet accrued three years of MLB Service Time and even if he has not been outrighted previously in his career. However, unlike a player who has accrued at least three years of MLB Service Time and/or has been outrighted previously in his career and who therefore has the option to elect free-agency immediately or else defer the choice until after the conclusion of the MLB regular season, a "Super Two" player who has not been outrighted previously in his career cannot defer his right to elect free-agency. He must make his choice when he is outrighted. 

At present there are 124 players on MLB rosters who are projected to fit the criteria of a player who has accrued at least two years but less than three years of MLB Service Time with at least 86 days of MLB Service Time accrued in the 2022 MLB regular season. So that means that 22% of the 124 (27.28 rounded to the nearest whole number, which is 27) will be at or above the Super Two threshold.and will have "Super Two" status post-2022. 

Sometimes a player petitions (successfully) to have his listed MLB Service Time adjusted (like due to an injury that occurred before the player was optioned to the minors, or because a player was optioned prior to game time or after the start of a game, or because his club intentionally manipulated the rules to keep the player from achieving "super Two" status, any of which would impact the player's service time and thus could impact the number of players who are in the macro group and how many of the players in the group acquire "Super Two" status), so the MLB Service Time listed below is unofficial pending post-season audit by MLB and the MLBPA.

TOP 22% OF PLAYERS WITH BETWEEN TWO & THREE YEARS OF MLB SERVICE TIME POST-2022
Thairo Estrada, INF-OF (SF) - 2+169 
James Karinchak, RHRP (CLE) - 2+169
Brusdar Graterol, RHRP (LAD) - 2+167 
Jesus Luzardo, LHSP (MIA) - 2+165 
Nick Madrigal, 2B (CUBS) - 2+164
Taylor Ward, OF (LAA) - 2+164 
Kyle Garlick, OF (MIN) - 2+163 
Mauricio Dubon, INF-OF (HOU) - 2+162 
Brady Singer, RHSP (KC) - 2+161 
Tony Gonsolin, RHSP (LAD) - 2+152 
Josh Rojas, INF-OF (AZ) - 2+152 
Santiago Espinal, INF (TOR) - 2+149 
Patrick Sandoval, LHSP (LAA) - 2+149
Kyle Lewis, OF (SEA) - 2+147
Abraham Toro, INF (SEA) - 2+147  
Evan White, 1B (SEA) - 2+146
Nathaniel Lowe, 1B (TEX) - 2+145  
Rafael Ortega, OF (CUBS) - 2+145 
Rony Garcia, RHSP (DET) - 2+142 
Edmundo Sosa, INF (PHI) - 2+140 
Kris Bubic, LHSP (KC) - 2+137  
Evan Phillips, RHRP (LAD) - 2+136 
David Peterson LHSP (NYM) - 2+135 
Adrian Sampson, RHP (CUBS) - 2+134 
Kyle Funkhouser, RHRP (DET) - 2+133 
Randy Arozarena, OF (TB) - 2+129 
Daulton Varsho, C-OF (AZ) - 2+128 
++++++++++++++++++++++
PROJECTED "SUPER TWO" CUT-OFF - 2+128
++++++++++++++++++++++
Nick Solak, INF (TEX) - 2+126 
A. J. Puk, LHRP (OAK) - 2+124 
Cole Irvin, LHSP (OAK) - 2+120

So if it remains unchanged, 2+128 MLB ST will be the post-2022 "Super Two" threshold cut-off.  

Tony Gonsolin, Randy Arozarena, Patrick Sandoval, Jesus Luzardo, Brady Singer, and Nathaniel Lowe won't have to worry, but for some of the other players on the above list, being a "Super Two" ain't necessarily so super. In many cases, a club will either release or non-tender the player rather than risk going to arbitration with him. And even for those players who are tendered a contract, becoming arbitration-eligible a year early can make a player more likely to be shopped in a trade, especially by a club with payroll  concerns. It could also motivate a club to extend a contract extension offer to avoid what could be four years of salary arbitration.  

Also, even though Evan White is signed to a multi-year contract (through 2025 with multiple annual club options through 2028) and as such will not be eligible for salary arbitration post-2022, getting "Super Two" status will impact him by making him eligible to elect free-agency if he were to be outrighted. 

Comments

there's new LED lighting racks being installed @wrigley.

i guess they're going to join the slew of teams with crazy ass "light show" celebrations/displays/etc...or they're addressing some shadow issues...

[ ]

In reply to by Charlie

i wonder how many years someone is gonna have to pay aaron judge 35+ million.  he turned down a 7y, 30m a year contract before he decided to have the best non-roided power season in the game's history.  he plays a good defensive RF, too.

btw, arenado has said he's not going to opt out so goldschmidt+arenado are on the menu for a while...

[ ]

In reply to by Cubster

I totally agree with Cubster's Bobby Mercer comparison. Really don't need another Yankee Stadium 30's slugger showing up with warning track power when they get to Wrigley. You triggered me with that Mercer reference, Cubster! That trade was my first severe Cubs stupid management traumatic experience. 

[ ]

In reply to by JoePepitone

Yep.

That memory still generates significant nausea for me, even after so many years.

 

Bobby Murcer and Steve Ontiveros for the NL hitting champ and my favorite cub..

man.

 

i mean, Murcer seemed like a decent guy and all, but jeez.

 

 

ian happ GG finalist...

i have never seen anyone play LF in wrigley like 2022 happ.  it's not a defensively important position, but the way he played it was amazing.  the walls, the ivy, the warning track...and straight up regular field play...top level.

nico hoerner robbed of a nomination...i mean, wtf...

[ ]

In reply to by Cubster

ha.

as an aside, i frequent sports auctions and you can 110% tell this current economic downturn is not at all effecting people who have 1000s to throw at sports cards/memorabilia.  a lot of stuff has slowed down, but spending on high end vintage stuff is not only not leveling off...it's continuing to rise. 

i'm sure some of it is from people who are too timid to put money in the market or real estate (you've been able to print money doing either the past 2-3 years), but overall it's weird to see the continous march up in this market that's about 3-4 years strong.

Just as a point of information, the TCR 40-man roster page is accurate if acceessed by a PC, but if you use a phone the column headings are wrong (have not been updated for post-2022 / 2023).

I have requested (more than once) over the past couple of weeks that the column headings on the 40-man roster page be updated for mobile phones, because I don't have the access required to do it myself, otherwise I would have changed it. 

So minor league option years left (2023), options used during the season (2023), and MLB Service Time (through 2022) were updated two weeks ago, but I cannot change the column headings as they appear when using a mobile phone, so it looks like the information relates to the 2022 season, but actually it has - ALL - been updated for off-season post-2022 and 2023. 

HOU goes up 3 games to 0 on NYY

yanks fans on the internet are calling for brian cashman's head.

after Harper 2 run HR in 8th, David Robertson is starting the 9th to get the Phils into the WS. Cool.

and Cubbery gets Robertson with back to back walks and one out. He gets pulled. It's never easy with a one run lead.

matt mervis is continuing his great results in the AFL...leads mesa in HR's (4 in 40 PA)

being 24 is hard to handicap, though...he's playing vs a lot of younger players.

adam wainwright will play for STL in 2023.  neat.

STL is meeting with arenado and are confident he won't opt out.  the fact they're meeting with him probably means there's an extension of some sort in the works.  he's got 5/144 left (28.8m/yr).

Cubs MLB Roster

Cubs Organizational Depth Chart
40-Man Roster Info

+++++++++++
 
37 players are on the MLB RESERVE LIST (three slots are open)  

Last updated 11-18-2022
 
* bats or throws left
# bats both

PITCHERS: 20
Adbert Alzolay
Javier Assad 
Ben Brown
Jeremiah Estrada
Kyle Hendricks
Codi Heuer 
* Brandon Hughes
Ryan Jensen
Caleb Kilian 
Mark Leiter Jr
Ethan Roberts 
Manuel Rodriguez
Michael Rucker
Adrian Sampson
* Justin Steele 
Marcus Stroman
Keegan Thompson
Erich Uelmen 
Hayden Wesneski
Rowan Wick

CATCHERS: 3 
Miguel Amaya
Yan Gomes
P. J. Higgins 

INFIELDERS: 8
Rylan Bannon 
Nico Hoerner
Nick Madrigal
* Miles Mastrobuoni
* Zach McKinstry
Christopher Morel
* Alfonso Rivas
Patrick Wisdom

OUTFIELDERS: 6
Kevin Alcantara 
Alexander Canario
Brennen Davis
# Ian Happ
Seiya Suzuki 
Nelson Velazquez

++++++++++++++++++++++

Minor League Rosters
Rule 5 Draft 
Minor League Free-Agents