Projected Post-2023 MLB Super Two Players
An unsigned player on an MLB Reserve List (40-man roster) who has accrued at least three but less than six years of MLB Service Time is automatically eligible for salary arbitration.
Also, any unsigned player on an MLB 40-man roster who has accrued at least two years but less than three years of MLB Service Time and who accrued at least 86 days of MLB Service Time during the previous season can qualify for salary arbitration as a so-called "Super Two" if the player is among the top 22% in MLB Service Time of players in that group (rounded to the nearest whole number). And if two or more players are tied with the same MLB Service Time just above the "Super Two" threshold, all of the players with that accrued MLB ST would get "Super Two" status even if that means the number of players with "Super Two" status exceeds 22%.
Because it is based on a percentage, the "Super Two" threshold fluctuates from year-to-year (it was two years plus 129 days or 2+129 post-2022, 2+116 post-2021, 2+125 MLB ST post-2020, 2+115 post-2019, 2+134 MLB ST post-2018, and 2+123 post-2017).
Besides gaining the right to request salary arbitration and have that right four times instead of just three times, being a "Super Two" player also means the player can elect free-agency if outrighted even though he has not yet accrued three years of MLB Service Time and even if he has not been outrighted previously in his career. So even if a "Super Two" player is signed, having the right to elect free-agency if outrighted is worth having "Super Two" status.
However, unlike a player who has accrued at least three years of MLB Service Time and/or has been outrighted previously in his career and who therefore has the option to elect free-agency immediately or else defer the choice until after the conclusion of the MLB regular season, a "Super Two" player who has not been outrighted previously in his career cannot defer his right to elect free-agency. He must make his choice when he is outrighted.
There were 118 players on MLB 40-man rosters (including players on an MLB 60-day IL) at the conclusion of the MLB regular season who were projected to fit the criteria of a player who has accrued at least two years but less than three years of MLB Service Time with at least 86 days of MLB Service Time accrued in the 2023 MLB regular season. So that means that 22% of the 118 (25.96 rounded to the nearest whole number, which is 26) will be at or above the Super Two threshold.and will have "Super Two" status post-2023.
Sometimes a player petitions (successfully) to have his listed MLB Service Time adjusted (like due to an injury that occurred before the player was optioned to the minors, or because a player was optioned prior to game time or after the start of a game, or because his club intentionally manipulated the rules to keep the player from achieving "Super Two" status, any of which would impact the player's service time and thus could impact the number of players who are in the macro group and how many of the players in the group acquire "Super Two" status), so the MLB Service Time listed below is unofficial pending post-season audit by MLB and the MLBPA.
TOP 22% OF PLAYERS WITH BETWEEN TWO & THREE YEARS OF MLB SERVICE TIME POST-2023
DJ Stewart, OF (NYM) - 2+168
James Kaprelian, RHP (OAK) - 2+165
Isaac Paredes, INF (TB) - 2+160
Shane McClanahan, LHP (TB) - 2+158
Sam Hentges, LHP (CLE) - 2+157
Anthony Bender, RHP (MIA) - 2+153
Nick Sandlin, RHP (CLE) - 2+152
Clarke Schmidt, RHP (NYY) - 2+148
Lucas Gilbreath, LHP (COL) - 2+147
Carlos Hernandez, RHP (KC) - 2+145
John King, LHP (STL) - 2+145
Logan Gilbert, RHP (SEA) - 2+144
Josh Fleming, LHP (TB) - 2+143
Justin Steele, LHP (CUBS) - 2+143
Luis Garcia, INF (WAS) - 2+141
Alex Kirilloff, OF (MIN) - 2+141
Nick Gordon, INF-OF (MIN) - 2+136
Connor Joe, 1B-OF (PIT) - 2+136
Phil Bickford, RHP (NYM) - 2+134
Tyler Wells, RHP (BAL) - 2+131
Vladimir Gutierrez, RHP (CIN) - 2+127
Leody Taveras, OF (TEX) - 2+124
Ryan McKenna, OF (BAL) - 2+121
Akil Baddoo, OF (DET) - 2+119
Albert Abreu, RHP (NYY) - 2+118
Jesus Sanchez, IF (MIA) - 2+118
PROJECTED "SUPER TWO" CUT-OFF - 2+118
Dean Kramer, RHP (BAL) - 2+112
Alex Lange, RHP (DET) - 2+112
Eli Morgan, RHP (CLE) - 2+108
Jimmy Lambert, RHP (CHW) - 2+107
Taylor Saucedo, LHP (SEA) - 2+107
So if it remains unchanged, 2+118 MLB ST will be the post-2023 "Super Two" threshold cut-off.
The Rays have the most "Super Two" players (three), The Cubs have just one (Justin Steele). Eleven clubs (ATL, AZ, BOS, HOU, LAA, MIL, PHI, LAD, SD, SF, and TOR) don't have any.
Justin Steele, Logan Gilbert, Shane McClanahan, Clarke Schmidt, and Isaac Paredes won't have to worry, but for some of the other players on the above list, being a "Super Two" ain't necessarily so super. In many cases, a club will either release or non-tender the player rather than risk going to arbitration with him (some of the players on the list have already been outrighted to the minors).
And even for those players who are tendered a contract, becoming arbitration-eligible a year early can make a player more likely to be shopped in a trade, especially by a club with payroll concerns. It could also motivate a club to extend a contract extension offer to avoid what could be four years of salary arbitration.