Callis on Pie

Schedule just came out: No games with either the Cardinals or Astros in September. (?!?!) Last series of the year is at Wrigley against Colorado. And this year, the first Sox series is there in May; the second is here June 30-July 2.

Ruz, OMG, if Dusty lobbies for Calvin Murray to be on the big league roster, or worse, in the starting lineup, Hendry should fire Dusty's arse RIGHT ON THE SPOT.

IMHO, Pie is not ready to play everyday in the majors. Next year looks like a transition year to me anyhow - no reason to bank on him. As much as I dispise his approach to hitting, I'd rather give Patterson one more shot, rather than bring up Pie before he is ready.

Don't bring him up in '06. You bring him up now and he IS Corey Patterson. From all that AZ Phil says he's the real deal. But his plate discipline (and this is at AA mind you) is a little too Cub-like (not enough power to warrant high K rate - doesn't walk etc) to make him a Cub just yet. The fear is, he will hit for decent average in spring training, Dusty will like his aggressiveness, he'll make the team and be batting .245 with a K every 3 PAs by Memorial Day. What's wrong with bringing a guy up at 22 or 23? Yeah, the Cubs need a centerfielder now but it's not worth the risk of turning Pie into Korey II.

If you're only argument against bringing Pie up is Corey Patterson, then you have failed in your argument. Many players have been "rushed" to the ML and generally speaking, the ones who are rushed do not end up like Corey. It's no different than saying the Cubs should rush him up because he could be like Pujols or Cabrera.

"Dusty will like his aggressiveness, he'll make the team and be batting .245 with a K every 3 PAs by Memorial Day." -- TBone you had me up to "... and be batting .245 with a K every 3 PAs by Memorial Day." because after making the team, Dusty would look at his birth certificate and MLB playing time and immediately sit him on the bench until Memorial Day where he'd get about 3 PAs per week if he does well ... :)

Who knows how old Pie really is? Was Rafael Furcal rushed too quickly to the majors at age 19? (of course not, he was really 22 or maybe more). But I fail to see how you can bring someone up too soon if you actually play him. There's not much evidence that time spent with the Iowa Cubs actually prepares anyone to be a major leaguer.

Please do not bring up Pie in '06. Most of the other players named in this thread, who were brought up early and quickly became stars, play for playoff teams that were loaded with talent. In other words, the pressure was not on these guys in the same way it would be on Pie, who, let's face it, would be playing for a big league team next year that most likely will be mediocre again, at best. Sure, maybe Hendry will pull a rabbit out of the hat but that seems unlikely. I just think the pressure on the kid, who has never even faced AAA pitching, could be too much so why take the risk?

You're right KJK. I get a kick out of all of these emails that say Cedeno is going to play 2b, Murton LF, Pie CF, etc. Dusty just doesn't play kids. Murton is the only one that will have a chance to play and that is only if hendry gives him a left handed hitting alternative so he can platoon. Never will he play Cedeno over Walker. If Walker is gone the best Cedeno can hope for is a platoon situation with macias or whomever is going to fill the back-up never was and never will be role.

"But I fail to see how you can bring someone up too soon if you actually play him." -- #7 ummm ... by playing him when you shouldn't?

When shouldn't you play him KJK?

Not on the Pie issue, but has anyone ever analyzed a big part of the Cubs failure in 2005 being Dusty misusing his personnel? I agree that hendry did not do a good job last off season (the April 2005 were not as good as the september 2004 Cubs), but he gave Dusty a team to compete for the wild card to the end. Here are examples of where Dusty misused the talent and put players in a position to fail, not to succeed as he is supossed to do: 1. Hollandsworth - great pinch hitter and occassional LF, used a starter. 2. Hawkins - great set-up man. 'nuff said. 3. Burnitz - OK as number 6 or 7 hitter, not good as cleanup hitter. Both Lee and Ramirez would see better pitches to hit if they batted 3 and 4. 4. Patterson - who knows what he would have done as a 6 or 7 hitter, a crappy lead off man. 5. Rusch - has been good as relifer or starter, not a both back and forth. 6. Dempster - not a good starter, looks like good closer. 7. Walker - well suited as number 2 hitter, not full use in 6 slot. 8. Perez - good utility player and decent stop-gap due to injury if batting 8. Not 1 or 2 hitter. These are all that come to mind. I'm sure others can come with other examples.

"When shouldn't you play him KJK?" -- #11 when he's not ready?

"has anyone ever analyzed a big part of the Cubs failure in 2005 being Dusty misusing his personnel" That was probably the single most-complained-about issue on TCR this year.

It's much easier to teach a player to recognize pitches in the minors. Pie needs to figure out what is a strike and what isn't before he faces major league pitching. Corey isn't the arguement, per se, he's just an example of someone rushed to the majors before he learned plate dicipline

This whole "Dusty doesn't play young guys" is categorically untrue. Look at all the young guys he's played on the Cubs. Start nowhere other than Corey Patterson who has been given chance after chance after chance. Name one young guy that Dusty hasn't played that has turned out to be any good. If you can't do that then you're just wasting your time, my time, and everyone else's time complaining about this issue over and over and over again. Name one player. Just one player who has been any good that Dusty did not play.

1. Hollandsworth - great pinch hitter and occassional LF, used a starter. he was worse as a pinch hitter...go figure. 2. Hawkins - great set-up man. 'nuff said. he sucked there, too...even in SF etc etc etc etc...burn was going just fine til he fell apart in september and some of august. he actually hit his best out of the #4 slot for what its worth (.268/.361). walker is slower that people give him credit for. the fact he can even be considered a #2 hitter on a club is a sign of a lack of top-order bats who can get on base and not glue up the running game...especially during the time he was coming back from his yearly knee injury. using neifi up top was dumb, but unfortunately the backup option for his lineup slot left much to be desired, itself. it was just built to be a hack/slash club. patterson...hairston....hairston was usually up top when he was starting anyway.

Corey's an example of someone who has never learned any plate discipline. He's, by no means, an example of someone Pie may end up being because he strikes out a lot at the minor league level. Is Jason Dubois like Corey Patterson? What about Adam Dunn? Brian Dopirak? Corey's only problem isn't plate discipline either. He's subpar defensively and doesn't seem to care one bit if he fails or succeeds. Pie isn't going to come up and hit .330 his rookie season and probably not his 2nd or 3rd season either. He's going to struggle whenever he's a rookie. Murton and Cedeno are going to struggle as rookies. It's what rookies do. Learning plate discipline is no easier at the minor league level than it is at the major league level. If anything, the quality of coaching is superior to that in the minors and you'd learn quicker. I agree that Pie should see some action at AAA before coming up, but once he proves he can hit AAA pitching, he has nothing left to prove at the minor league level and there is no longer any reason to leave him there.

"Name one young guy that Dusty hasn't played that has turned out to be any good. If you can't do that then you're just wasting your time, my time, and everyone else's time complaining about this issue over and over and over again." -- The Rock Hey, this is fun! Can I play? Name one young player who sat on a bench that was better than a veteran player who Dusty started!

"That was probably the single most-complained-about issue on TCR this year." Yeah, it was the most complained about issue at my former Cubs stop as well. (but the discourse was much dumber than what I have found here so far) However, I don't think enough can be said about how poorly he truly managers personell and how poor he is at making a lineup. Ultimately, the players lost the games, not the manager. But Dusty did little to help anything. The old baseball addage is that a manager's job is to not lose games for his team. I don't think Dusty accomplished this.

The purpose of the minor league's is to have players learn their craft until they can better replace someone at the ML level. If the alternative is Corey Patterson or Jerry Hairston, Jr., then Felix Pie should be the CF in 2006 because he's a better option than either of those 2. Unless the Cubs add a CF that is better than Pie he should be given that job. There is no reason to have a player playing a position at the ML level who is worse than what you have at the minor league level. The question isn't about how Pie will be affected by the promotion, but it's about what makes the Cubs a better team. Pie will continue to develop as good ML players do if he any good. The problem is that you guys haven't realized Corey isn't a good ML player so you have to compare the two. If Pie is not that good, then we won't see much progress from him as he gets older.

The biggest problem that minor leaguers face in the majors is adjustments. In the minors if you can pound a fastball, you will pound a fastball from rookie ball to AAA. The minor league pitchers wont adjust because they are used to blowing their fastball past hitters their entire career. In the majors fastball hitters get a free pass in the month of April. My favorite player to hate was Alex Gonzalez. Great fastball hitter and pretty good month of April hitter. This is due to pitchers who are not yet comfortable with their breaking stuff early in the season. As the season gets longer all those fastballs you saw in April disappear and now you are getting a steady diet of breaking pitches. Especially if you can't hit breaking pitches. All during this though the league is adjusting. Ok fine you can hit a fastball, lets see if you can hit a slider. Oh you can hit a slider huh? How about a curve? Oh you can't hit a curve, well we will just keep throwing the curve till you prove us wrong. The players that adjust go on to have long careers, the ones that don't get sent back to the minors to be never heard from again. Right now Patterson is on the list of players who can't adjust. Just throw him a high fastball and 80% of time he swings and misses. A pitcher will take those percentages every day of the week. If Patterson ever learns to lay off the high fastball he will draw more walks and the league will have to figure out a new way to make him chase pitches. Stat wise Patterson and Pie look similiar so the logical thinking process is he might end up like Patterson. But maybe Pie can adjust his game when he needs to. Maybe he can't. You never really find this question out till they start playing in the majors. Look over at Atlanta. Jeff Francouer had a great rookie season. But can he adjust his game and still not take BB's in the majors? I look for the league to throw alot of pitches out of the zone on him to see if he will chase. Will he lay off, or will he swing and miss more often? If he takes more walks, the league will be forced to give him better pitches to hit. If he flails away he ends up like Corey Patterson. Nice little run to start his career, major bust afterwards.

"The problem is that you guys haven't realized Corey isn't a good ML player so you have to compare the two." Are you serious? I don't know of anyone here who thinks Corey's a good ML player. And as far as comparing the two: They play the same position, they both have speed but neither is adept at stealing bases, they both have some power but not enough to make up for their high K totals and neither seems able to take a walk. Other than that, you're right, I don't know why anyone would compare them.

Since when is Patterson sub-par defensively, Rock? Even this year when he regressed a little bit he is at worst an above-average center fielder. We can pile on the guy for a lot, but let's recognize something he does well.

How much would Lofton cost for one year?

He only ranked like next to last among CF's in the National League defensively. I never said the two were nothing alike. I said it's silly to compare the two. Corey has had nearly 5 years to prove himself at the ML level and he's just horrible. He's done nothing to improve any part of his game. If you really believe that Corey is as bad as he is because he was rushed to the league, then i don't know what to tell you. The guy has had over 2000 ABs to adjust to ML pitching and he's failed. You could take a 16 year old sophomore in high school with a ton of talent and after 2000 ABs you'd likely see dramatic improvements. Being rushed up means nothing. It's just a wonder Ken Griffey didn't end up like Corey Patterson, isn't it? According to your theory he should be worse than Patterson because he was rushed even more. As I said, if there is someone better than Patterson, then Pie should go to AAA, but as soon as he proves he can hit AAA pitching, he should be up with the Cubs. That simple!

The real reason to get excited about Pie is that he's been very young for his league and succeeded reasonably well at every level. Youth-for-level is generally a high indicator of success. That said he's 20 YEARS OLD. There's plenty of time to wait. For comparison though: Patterson 20 West Tenessee: 444AB .261/.334/.491 with 22 HR, 5 3B, 26 2B, 27 SB 115/45 SO/BB ratio Pie same age, same team, 240AB .304/.352/.554 with 11 HR, 5 3B, 17 2B, 13SB/9CS 53/16 SO/BB ratio Basically Pie could be Patterson but more hit lucky. Baseball Cube doesn't have the CS information for Patterson. He's 20 - let the kid learn.

Great I see that Mark Prior was 3rd in the league in Pitcher Abuse Points this year. Good I mean it's not like he responded badly after ranking 4th in 2003, or was coming off a severe injury to his elbow. Hey he had to suck it up the Cubs were in it after all....... For all the complaining about lineup contruction, playing Macias/Perez, weirdo quotes about Dusty - this is really what is the fireable offense. You had in 2003 a very young incredibly talented pitching staff. You've abused them, and now you have a not all that young not as talented injury prone staff. Managing that trio of Aces was Baker's most important job. Yes I realize PAP is far from a perfect measure - but it's a hell of a lot more accurate than Dusty's gut. PAP 2005 http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/... PAP 2003 http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/...

PAP is lost on me. Go ask Nolan Ryan and Fergie Jenkins about PAP. Pitchers are just softer these days. You don't a stat for that.

Raised in the 50's/60's to pitch and raised in the 90's to pitch are two completly different set of standards. Whether you like it or not Pitcher Abuse is part of the game of baseball now, and forever.

It may be part of the game, but that doesn't mean that it has any merit or meaning. Pitchers don't give a shit about it.

It is funny that Dusty has all these firable offenses, but yet Hendry does nothing and will most likely give him an extenstion this year, BUT almost everyone still supports Hendry. I hope we don't see Pie this year at all. It would be rushing him to the bigs, just like Hill was this past season. I said it before Hill ever pitched he was being rushed and he got shelled when he was here. Hopefully Hendry finally learns his lesson. Fire Hendry...Now we have two Big time SABR GM's out there to hire.

If we hire DePosdesta, I quit!

The White Sox didn't win with a SABR GM. And the Red Sox were swept by them.

president = andy mcphail GM = jim hendry chance of andy firing jim = slim to none. they're pretty great friends and respect each other. screwed as it is for any two guys in their possition to have this amount of power, they got it. i'd be damn suprised, anyway...

murton 0-4 sing 1-4 (single, 2k) koronka 3ip 2h 1bb 1k (win in relief)

CWTP- My comments were more toungue in cheek as I am one fo the few on here that aren't sold on SABR stats being all that. I am not sold on Depodesta or Epstein either, but for so many people on here that love SABR stats, they should be drooling to get these guys here. But that being said, I am all for Hendry (and also Baker) being gone after this year if the Cubs don't make the playoffs.

EVERYTHING you just said, Manny. I'm with you.

There's no chance that Hendry will be let go to make room for a new GM. There's no chance that any of the existing GMs will be let go either. I don't think that's how these teams operate. It appears that only teams with openings are the ones in play. kinda the same thing for managers, who are typically fired the day after the end of the season in order to have an opening. Not worth talking about beyond that. More important are teams willing to deal solid players near or at the end of their contracts. Does anyone have good names to suggest that could fill the holes we have and are realistically available? I doubt someone would gift us a DLee for Choi deal, but is there something close that we could do in order to get some pitching? A corner OF? Again, I haven;t really checked the lists...

Potential free agents after 2006 (Source: http://www.mlb4u.com/0607FA.html) ---- LF: Luis Gonzalez (Mutual Option) Ricky Ledee Barry Bonds Ryan Klesko (Team Option) Cliff Floyd Carlos Lee Raul Ibanez David Dellucci CF: Jim Edmonds (Team Option) Mike Cameron (Team Option) Juan Pierre Gary Matthews Jr. Jay Payton Randy Winn Torii Hunter (Team Option) Steve Finley (Team Option) Milton Bradley Aaron Rowand (Player + Team Options)(arb.) Dave Roberts RF: Gary Sheffield (Team Option) Shannon Stewart Jay Gibbons Matt Stairs Moises Alou Trot Nixon Frank Catalanotto Jermaine Dye (Team Option) J.D. Drew (Player Void Option) Jose Guillen RHSP: Paul Wilson (Team Option) Wade Miller Jon Garland Tomo Ohka Gil Meche Greg Maddux Jason Schmidt Brad Radke Brandon Webb (Team Option) Kerry Wood (Mutual Option) Mike Mussina (Team Option) Cory Lidle Kelvim Escobar Joel Piniero arb? Chan Ho Park Jose Contreras Ryan Franklin Orlando Hernandez Jaret Wright (Team + Player Void options) Kip Wells Jason Marquis Vicente Padilla Adam Eaton Tim Wakefield (Annual Team Renew Option) LHSP: Kazuhisa Ishii (Team Option) (arb.) Ted Lilly Andy Pettitte Mark Mulder Barry Zito Doug Davis Randy Wolf Mark Buerhle (Team Option) David Wells Wilson Alvarez (Retired) Darrell May Eric Milton (Void Option) LHRP: Arthur Rhodes Bruce Chen Aaron Fultz Rheal Cormier(Team Option) Ray King (Team Option) Justin Speier Kent Mercker Steve Kline Scott Schoenweis Damaso Marte (Team Option) (arb.) J.C. Romero (Team Option) Ron Villone Trever Miller RHRP: Solomon Torres Jim Brower David Riske LaTroy Hawkins Chad Bradford Mike Lincoln Carlos Almanzar David Weathers Mike DeJean (Mutual Option) Esteban Yan Ron Mahay (Team Option) Chris Reitsma Guillermo Mota Dan Kolb CL: Mariano Rivera (Team Option) Troy Percival Francisco Cordero (Team Option) Keith Foulke (Mutual + Player Option) Dustin Hermanson (Team option) John Smoltz (Team Option) Eric Gagne (Team Option + Player Void Option

Wow, I guess the answer is "no." An amazing list of players who for the most part, for one reason or another (age, injury, inconsistency, lack of ability)would not be desireable at this point either. I may be overstating it. I'm sure there's a lot of bullpen help in there, and Zito is, of course, quite good. But as for OFs you're talking about guys who fit into the categories of "fresh start," "comeback player of the year," and "lightning in a bottle." Ouch.

Using the same link the after 2006 FA market (trade to get value guys) up the middle is kinda crap too. 2B: Luis Castillo (Team Option) Junior Spivey Mark Lorretta Ray Durham Damian Jackson Adam Kennedy Jeff Kent Jerry Hairston Jr. Juan Castro (Team Option) Tony Womack Alfonso Soriano SS: Tomas Perez (club option) Kazuo Matsui (can opt for either free agency or arb.) Craig Counsell Julio Lugo Chris Gomez Does this start to make Nomar look better to us as a SS this year with Walker and maybe as a 2B the following year with Cedeno at SS? Puts a lot of pressure on EPat to get here in a hurry. Or the need to secure Furcal.

Rob G. correct me if I'm wrong here, but didn't the BrewCrew already pickup the option on Carlos Lee? if not, lets get him!!!!

http://milwaukee.brewers.mlb.com/NASApp/mlb/n... I guess they did. And I guess that I answered my own question.

Chad, This was a hypo about guys near the end of their deals who might be available to us in a trade the way DLee was two years ago. I think that's why Lee shows up on the list, as an 2006 FA

best case scenario for the Cubs in CF in 2006 is a trade for Juan Pierre. He's a FA after this year so if Pie is ready in 2007 no big deal Pierre walks. Unfortunately, I don't see the Marlins dealing him for anything that wouldn't overwhelm them...but the Cubs can offer young pitching and the Marlins do have Jeremy Heremida apparently ready to step in so it's certainly a possibility. I know the Yanks want him but they don't have much to offer as I'm sure the Marlins would insist on C.Wang and a couple prospects. If the Cubs land Furcal maybe a Ronny Cedeno/R.Hill or if they're dumb enough Mitre deal. Alex Gonzalez is a FA and the Marlins will need a SS if he's not coming back...and how good would a Pierre/Furcal top of the order look. All that speed and moving runners over ability for Dusty to play station to station baseball with...(sarcasm)

they picked up the option for his 2006 contract, he can become a FA AFTER the 2006 season which is what that list was all about. And I think the marlins will happilly trade Pierre, not for a bag of peanuts but it would shock me if he made it through the year. I doubt they'll get burned again like they did with Burnett. Of course I don't really want anything to do with Pierre. If only M. Bradley wasn't such a malcontent, cause he's a helluva of a player. Of course I guess that's why he'll be available this off-season, shame. He'd be the perfect one year stop gap. A trade for Mike Cameron wouldn't be all too horrible either if we were to go down that scenario.

OOOOOOOOOOOHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH.

Christmas list: Giles Furcal Chad Bradford Carlos Almanzar David Riske

Cameron would be fine for one year, but I think it would take more in trade to get him over Pierre. Plus it adds another righty bat and I like Pierre's lefty+speed option plus he's in his walk year and you know how most players tend to perform in their FA year.

I guess what I was getting at is that, even in a trade, the Cubs cannot get much in the way of teams that are looking to dump players before they lose them to free agency, which I assume is the ripest time to pick low-hanging fruit... Besides that, we're looking at a thin crop of free agents at virtually every need we have. Our 2006 Cubs are going to have to either: a) have been in the 2005 organization or resigned for 2006. Except for any bullpen help, of course. I do like Lofton. Should have brought him back in 2004. Even if he fell apart, then you could have eased Corey back in. Murton-Lofton-Giles would be fine. Ramirez-Cedeno-Garciaparra-DLee. Barrett. Pretty good squad. Maybe our problem is envisioning our team as a playoff/championship team, mostly because we've been dealing with the same key pieces for the last two plus years and we're not yet convinced. If they make the moves, maybe if we step back, the team looks a little better. A little. I guess I think back to last spring when no White Sox fan would have ever thought they had a playoff team, much less a World Champion.

thought they had a playoff team on their hands much less a world champion.

"Go ask Nolan Ryan and Fergie Jenkins about PAP. " Then go sign Ryan and Jenkins to pitch. Welcome to 2005. Pitchers are conditioned to pitch every 5th day, and for the most part to go about 100 pitches. 1/2 the people on the PAP list last year underperformed this year. 1/3 of the people on that list were injured this year. Those numbers hold close to true every year of PAP. It isn't exact science, and there are exceptions (Livan Hernandez). But Prior and Wood do not appear to be exceptions. Both appear to be hurt REGULARLY. Cutting them down to a more reasonable number of pitches, in a lost cause season, couldn't be considered a bad thing.

'Cutting them down to a more reasonable number of pitches, in a lost cause season, couldn't be considered a bad thing.' Thats a great idea, as long as you don't mind seeing Mitre, Brownlie and Hill pitch the 5,6th and 7th innings everyday. Wouldn't leave much room on the bench for Jose Macias, though. As far as PAP, I don't think there's been any statistical evidence that supports it, at least I never saw in on BP. It's a couple of totally arbitrary measures combined into one.

"Thats a great idea, as long as you don't mind seeing Mitre, Brownlie and Hill pitch the 5,6th and 7th innings everyday. Wouldn't leave much room on the bench for Jose Macias, though." And that would be better than seeing Hill and Mitre STARTING by the end of the year, and potentially still being in the rotation sometime next year? Cutting guys off at 110 pitches doesn't mean letting them only go 4 innings. It means actually teaching them how to be more efficient with their pitches. If Wood and Prior need 110 pitches to throw 4 innings, then neither should be starters as they will be destined to be ineffective over the long term. Rothschild, Baker, etc. are doing something very wrong if the answer is needing to make guys with histories of injuries go 120+ pitches, and end up on any list that shows any indication of correlation to injury. "I don't think there's been any statistical evidence that supports it, at least I never saw in on BP. It's a couple of totally arbitrary measures combined into one." 1/2 the people on the list are less effective the following year. 1/3 of the people on the list are hurt the next year. I just don't get why this is worth the risk in a season that was nearly hopeless almost from mid-season on. If we were in a pennant race, I'd say burn the hell out of em. Cuz there was upside to that. But to see Prior go 115 when he had a 5-1 lead over Pittsburgh after the 4th inning on July 14 was silly. To see him go 120 when he had a 2-0 lead over Arizona on July 29 was not smart. 117 vs Cinci on Aug 9th, when we were nowhere close to the lead in the WC chase (5th place) was bad. The worst one was 120 vs the Brewers on Sept. 21. We had no business doing that. There was no upside. Yes, Mitre, Hill, Brownlie, Glanville, etc. would all be smarter to have on the bump than burning Prior like that.

hendry wants to sign more pitching? find a package, any package, take my catcher - please, and get barrett out of wrigley. he can hit but he doesn't fit. no other moves or signings will have any effect on this team without a game-caller/leader behind the plate. despite their talent these pitchers need someone smarter than they are. barrett and patterson for soriano and laird? paul loduca (with blanco behind him) is what the cubs need and the kind of player they should be looking for. but it's doubtful the new marlins manager would give him up? maybe the fish will take barrett and dusty for loduca and girardi? in our dreams