Cubs MLB Roster

Cubs Organizational Depth Chart
40-Man Roster Info

40 players are on the MLB RESERVE LIST (roster is full) 

28 players on MLB RESERVE LIST are ACTIVE, and twelve players are on OPTIONAL ASSIGNMENT to minors. 

Last updated 3-26-2024
 
* bats or throws left
# bats both

PITCHERS: 15
Yency Almonte
Adbert Alzolay 
Javier Assad
Jose Cuas
Kyle Hendricks
* Shota Imanaga
Caleb Kilian
Mark Leiter Jr
* Luke Little
Julian Merryweather
Hector Neris 
* Drew Smyly
* Justin Steele
Jameson Taillon
* Jordan Wicks

CATCHERS: 2
Miguel Amaya
Yan Gomes

INFIELDERS: 7
* Michael Busch 
Nico Hoerner
Nick Madrigal
* Miles Mastrobuoni
Christopher Morel
Dansby Swanson
Patrick Wisdom

OUTFIELDERS: 4
* Cody Bellinger 
Alexander Canario
# Ian Happ
Seiya Suzuki
* Mike Tauchman 

OPTIONED: 12 
Kevin Alcantara, OF 
Michael Arias, P 
Ben Brown, P 
Alexander Canario, OF 
Pete Crow-Armstrong, OF 
Brennen Davis, OF 
Porter Hodge, P 
* Matt Mervis, 1B 
Daniel Palencia, P 
Keegan Thompson, P 
Luis Vazquez, INF 
Hayden Wesneski, P 

 



 

Minor League Rosters
Rule 5 Draft 
Minor League Free-Agents

2007 Year in Review

This is about the time of year everyone starts putting up their looks back at the year that was 2006. But hey, what's the fun in rehashing the misery that was last year when we can take a peek into next year? So here are tomorrow's headlines today: January 3rd: Cubs sign Cliff Floyd....and every other remaining free agent. Rival GM's complain that "Spendry" hasn't left anyone for them. Hendry responds with "when you haven't won a World Series in 98 years, you have to do things a little different". Also petitions MLB to expand to a 60-man roster. 9th: Mark Prior begins throwing program, Cub layout relevant dates for public. He'll play long toss for a week, then pitch off flat ground for another week and then slowly increase his pitch count off a mound. By February he'll be complaining of arm soreness, in March he'll come down with a "mysterious illness" that takes him out for a few weeks, April he'll start his rehab program from scratch, May will consist of minor league starts, June he'll make a few starts in the majors, get shelled and go back on the disabled list. 20th: At the Cubs convention when asked by a fan that despite all the money spent, the team did nothing to address its problems with walks on the hitting or pitching side Hendry responds with, "Obviously we have no idea how to build a winning team, but we're obviously confident that even the most ill-conceived teams get lucky once in awhile. Obviously I'm also confident that with the hiring of another big name manager, that all the criticism will be deflected away from me." February 15th: Pitchers and catchers report for spring training. Zambrano comes into camp with twenty new bats and new gloves for first base and the outfield, says he's ready to play everyday and help the team anyway possible. When asked about cutting down his walks while pitching, he takes one of his twenty new bats and bludgeons writer to death who asked the question. Writers all agree to say nothing since it was Phil Rogers who asked. 16th: Mark Prior complains about arm soreness. 20th: The rest of the team reports, Piniella encourages Ramirez to hustle around the bases by releasing a bobcat whenever he puts a ball in play. 21st: New hitting coach Gerald Perry begins working with hitters and explaining the concepts of patience and waiting for your pitch. Team looks on with bewilderment. Perry scratches head and proclaims, "Looks like I picked the wrong day to stop sniffing glue." 23rd: Piniella and coaches show up to morning practice and field is empty, ballplayers nowhere to be found. Finally tracking some down on the golf course, Kerry Wood explains that under the old regime they'd play catch for a few days and then could do whatever they want as long as they showed up for the Cactus League games. March 1st: Cactus League games begin. Trying to get back in the swing of things, Piniella gets into it with an ump over a third strike call. Not getting anywhere with the old standbys of kicking dirt on the plate and hand gestures that imply the umpire is blind, Piniella pulls out a stun gun and tasers the ump. After cracking a few jokes in the post-game news conference, the league basically ignores the incident saying it's just Lou being Lou. 16th: Mark Prior complains about feeling fatigued and nauseous. Cubs call it a "mysterious illness" and say he'll sit for a month. 20th: After Ronny Cedeno makes his 20th error of the spring by throwing a ball ten feet over Derrek Lee's head, Piniella runs onto field, demands Cedeno hold out his right hand and chops it off with a machete. Piniella holds it high in the air and exclaims, "We will play good fundamental baseball, damnit!" Cubs don't commit an error the rest of spring training. April 1st: Cubs and Zambrano agree on a six year/$100 million deal. Naturally Z negotiates the entire deal himself, including incentives for hitting .300, 30 Hr's, Silver Slugger and other offensive categories. No reporter dares question the structure of the deal. 2nd: Opening Day versus the Reds features Zambrano versus Arroyo and Zambrano celebrates his new deal by going 3 for 3 with two homers and six Rbi's, but falls short of the win when he's pulled in the bottom of the fifth after his 130th pitch and tenth walk. The team goes on to win 20-12. 10th: Prior begins playing long toss for second time this offseason. 19th: Cubs call up a number of AAA prospects and sit all their regular starters. Cubs not willing to tempt fate after Nomar and Lee's injuries happened on the same day the last two seasons. May 3rd: Cliff Floyd's season ending injury occurs, blowing out a knee running the bases. Everyone who bet the under on May 25th smiles as does Matt Murton. 28th: Despite batting .400 with a .500 OBP, Theriot can't crack the starting lineup over Cesar Izturis who's mired in a 10 for 200 slump with 10 singles. But the D's been good. June 17th: Mark Prior makes his first start of the season against the Padres and pitches reasonably well going five innings and giving up two runs. Unfortunately in the bottom of the fifth he collides with Marcus Giles and breaks his arm ending his season. 30th: Marcus Giles hitting 300/380/460 for the Padres, Derosa struggling at 250/310/410. Theriot still can't crack lineup and the readers of TCR can be seen collectively banging their head against the keyboard since I run a Giles/Theriot/Derosa comparision every day in the game previews. July 3rd: All-Star teams are announced and the Cubs place 6 on the team including Zambrano, Ramirez, Lee, Soriano, Barrett and Rich Hill. TCR's write-in campaign for Ryan Theriot falls just short. 31st: In a complex seven team deal in which Stephen Hawking was brought in to help consult with, the Cubs manage to land Miguel Tejada and Dontrelle Willis and only give up Mike Fontenot, Mark Holliman, Clay Rapada and Grant Johnson. Hendry completes deal while under anaesthesia undergoing his third angioplasty within the last year. August 20th: After a beanball fest between the Cubs and Cardinals, which resulted in two bench-clearing brawls and ten ejections, Piniella responds in the post-game press conference with, "Boy, that escalated quickly. I mean, that really got out of hand fast. I think Larry killed a guy with a trident." September 16th: Cubs clinch division title in St. Louis on a 3-2 victory. Reporters question LaRussa's move to pinch-hit for Scott Rolen with Gary Bennett against Ryan Dempster who strikes out Bennett to end the game. Larussa wearing all black with sunglasses and constantly looking over his shoulder defends decision by saying Bennett's hit Dempster better in his career. October 7th: Cubs win Division Series over the Dodgers when Nomar can't get to an easy grounder to his right due to his ankle, oblique, hamstring and back ailments that he's trying to play through. 23rd: The Cubs and Indians begin the 2007 World Series. Pigs seen circling the Sears Tower. 30th: In a eighteen inning marathon at Cleveland where the teams exchange the lead eight times and fire and brimstone can be seen falling from the sky, a groundball goes through the legs of Derrek Lee down the right field line in the bottom of the seventeeth with a man on first for the Indians. A suspicious looking fan wearing headphones and glasses reaches down and touches the ball and the umpires rule it a ground rule double and force the runner to stay at third. Bob Howry walks the next batter and has to face Travis Hafner with the bases loaded and nobody out. Hafner appears to win the World Series with a single to right field but Grady Sizemore trips attempting to score and Soriano forces him out at the plate and the Cubs pull off the miracle triple play when the other runners are ruled out for leaving the basepaths thinking the game was over. In the top of the eighteenth, Piniella pinch-hits for Mark Derosa with Carlos Zambrano who hits a 500 foot homer to give the Cubs the 11-10 lead. Z stays in the game to close despite pitching a nine-inning shutout the night before to force game seven and strikes out the side on ten pitches. The final pitch bounces in the dirt though and Barrett is unable to locate it despite it being right underneath him. Z runs to the plate shoves Barrett to the ground and throws a 150 mph strike to Derrek Lee to nail the runner by a half a step. Temperature in hell drops to 0 degrees. 31st: Lou Piniella retires and Jay Mariotti writes article saying the Cubs were one of the best teams ever and that Hendry did an amazing job building the team and is the best GM in the business. November 5th: At the team's organizational meetings, team discusses potential promotions and tie-ins for World Series win for 2008. Roster is never discussed. 10th: When asked about the manager search, Hendry announces an American Idol like search around the country and the winner will be announced in February. Asked whether that will negatively effect any pursuit of free agents, Hendry responds by saying the Cubs have no intention of making any moves this offseason or for the next 99 years. Pleads with Cubs fan not to be greedy. 11th: Jay Mariotti writes article saying that Hendry is an idiot and is ruining the the ballclub. Hendry sends Zambrano to teach Mariotti "a lesson". 30th: Dusty Baker seen outside of Wrigley wearing sign saying, "Will Manage for Food". December 5th: Hendry sleeps through the entire Winter Meetings. 31st: Cubs raise 2008 ticket prices to $100 a bleacher seat and up to $1000 for a premium seats. No one notices. Feel free to include your own predictions in the comments and Happy New Year!

Comments

*golf clap* man, someone must have given you a starbucks gift certificate for xmas.

assuming derosa/theriot doesnt fail and everyone stays healthy the 08 offseason should be a very boring time for the cubs. all slots taken except for 1 possible starter, 1 possible OF, 1 possible SS, and catcher. well, it could be up to 2 starters if Z leaves...either way, not much of an 08 shopping list.

August 20th: After not adding any improvements to a mediocre team at the trading deadline and the team marred in a 4-15 slump, "Teflon" Jim Hendry finally gets fired. The last straw was the team getting swept in a 4 game home series versus division rival St. Louis Cardinals. Mark Prior was making his first start of the season and left after 2 innings with arm soreness after giving up 7 ER. On a side note, after hearing of Hendry's departure, the 10 closest Krispy Kreme's to Wrigley Field all close up shop in anticipation to drastic loss of sales.

"2nd: Opening Day versus the Reds features Zambrano versus Arroyo and Zambrano celebrates his new deal by going 3 for 3 with two homers and six Rbi’s, but falls short of the win when he’s pulled in the bottom of the fifth after his 130th pitch and tenth walk. The team goes on to win 20-12." That was brilliant. Nice article, Rob.

and someone must have put a lump of coal in manny's stocking. :( no starbucks, plenty of free oxygen in Vegas though. So what did I miss? I hear this guy who talks to seals and plays a mean guitar signed for as much money as an everyday player. Those better be 33 damn good starts a year. And how the hell does Boras keep getting GM's to outbid themselves by so much. No one was even close to the Giants offer and it's not like you really needed to convince Zito to stay in the Bay area. Guess he needed to make up for the Matsuzka signing somehow. I don't think it's a terrible signing or anything, I think Zito will be quite fantastic the next 2-3 years as the NL tries to adjust to him and he gets to stick with mostly pitcher parks and even after 2-3 years he'll still be better than average, that's for sure. But still $18 mil a year? Just wow. Mets are going to have pull that Lastings Milledge card for a pitcher though now. Glavine, Maine, El Duque and then some combo of Pelfrey, Heilman, healthy Pedro in June-ish and whomever doesn't seem like a good plan.

Sounds good to me

instead of 20 people endlessly bitching about dusty for any/all reasons and digging up even the most passively critical media reports to pile on top of everything we get 1 person's hendry thing. i'll take those lessened numbers. replace the aug. 20th rant with "dusty" and the gist to managerial duties and it'd be a different story...but it'd also get 20 more posts heheh

I sense manny/crunch tension. Did I miss something?

its not tension...ive just been reading a lot of single-sided hendry posts from manny that mirrors the 2+ years of pleas for reason and vocal slapbacks for anti-dusty rants that are reading almost mirror-imaged of the dusty rants. its in the last post...ive just read a lotta it lately and brought it up. i dont get it, but ultimately it doesnt matter. im sick of hearing about guys in suits, that's nothing new. im just suprised the vigor of the anti-hendry stance from someone who railed against similar during the extremely maddning "dusty days" of non-stop piling of complaints.

i know i can be abrasive sometimes, but im not looking a fight. none of this matters to me too much, but im not hiding behind that statement as a means to say whatever i want whenever i want. i also dont use it to ignore criticism. me and mike bitch...ultimately it doesnt matter...me and ____(fill in the blank) bitch, same thing. people call me out, i have my say...i call people out, they have their say. im not perfect and ive probally crossed a line every now and then, but hey...go internet.

What? Manny's criticisms of Hendry seem reasonable and without any sort of bias. :) As you said, go Internet.

Rob G.:
31st: In a complex seven team deal in which Stephen Hawking was brought in to help consult with, the Cubs manage to land Miguel Tejada and Dontrelle Willis and only give up Mike Fontenot, Mark Holliman, Clay Rapada and Grant Johnson. Hendry completes deal while under anaesthesia undergoing his third angioplasty within the last year.
Hahha, Brilliant!

Rob G.:
Feel free to include your own predictions in the comments and Happy New Year!
1. By June we'll all be wondering how DeRosa is an upgrade to Todd Walker. 2. Rich Hill will come back down to earth. 3. By the end of the year we'll be wondering what the Cub's will do with the other year in Blanco's contract. 4. Wood & Prior will combine for approximately 50-60 IP. 5. Pie will suck at the major league level... big time.

this is from the link by slamdog in the previous post about Wilken... "We won two World Series, five AL East titles, were organization of the year twice. Seven of 12 years we produced the most major-leaguers and had 15 straight first-rounders make it," Wilken told the crowded ball room. "With respect to the Yankees, we handled them better from 1983-94 than anyone. "We also had six scouts of the year, a batting champ, an MVP, six Gold Glove winners, three Cy Young Award winners. I still don't understand why you wouldn't want to live in a beautiful city like Toronto full time." I guess that last line was a shot at Ricciardi who I'm guessing doesn't live in Toronto the whole year.

he lives in worcester, aka wooshster, mass...born/raised there. not like he's living in montreal cuz of access to strip clubs or cuz he thinks there's too many asian people who breakdance in toronto.

Obviously, you quoted Jim Hendry correctly. Cubster's addendum: in March he’ll come down with a “mysterious illness�? that takes him out for a few weeks... this episode includes a visit by Prior to world renown Sports Gynecologist, Dr. Stork, who finally makes the correct diagnosis on him...uterine fireballs. Excellent Work Rob and Happy New Yr to you and to all the TCR writers and posters.

several serious LOLs while reading in coffee shop, good work.

I can still drum up some of my old Dusty hate. No? Ahhh alright. I have never been much of a fan of Hendry. Different guy, same game plan as the previous guy. Now that McPhail is gone Hendry looks like a brand new guy. Whether it was McPhail or the Tribune holding back Hendry I don't know but this off-season he has gone out and addressed nearly every weakness this team has. Hard to complain about that. I think the Cubs as an organization are finally scared of getting that 100th anniversary mark.

Gerald Perry is now the Cubs pitching coach wow how bizzarro!

Sadly, the Prior stuff will probably be really, really close to the way it goes down. The team would be an instant contender if he someway, somehow got over his injury tendencies. I honestly don't expect Prior to ever pitch a substantial amount of quality innings in a Cubs uniform again.

Hey, we can still blame Dusty for Prior and Wood's injury problems, and for lack of major league ready homegrown players. ;)

"On a side note, after hearing of Hendry’s departure, the 10 closest Krispy Kreme’s to Wrigley Field all close up shop in anticipation to drastic loss of sales." _______________________________ Why not throw in a "why'd the chicken cross the road" joke... that's about as fresh and entertaining as these donut jokes.

BJS, what's your problem? If you don't like his joke, cram it. No one cares about your thoughts on whether Rob's jokes are fresh or not. You posts are probably the least fresh and least entertaining things on this board.

Rob G.: "and someone must have put a lump of coal in manny’s stocking." That wouldn't be coal, Hendry being fired would be the best stocking stuffer one could get...:)

BJS: "Why not throw in a “why’d the chicken cross the road�? joke… that’s about as fresh and entertaining as these donut jokes." Sorry, my Michael Richards comedy school classes must not be working. I will ask for a refund.

Great job, Rob G. I have the HBO "Cubs Curse" program on Tivo and I have not watched it yet. May do it tonite. Prior's health reports should be believed as much as the Soviet's reports in the 70's on their leaders. Have a rockin' New Year, stay out of trouble.

It's kind of a pathetic, but I actually found myself nervously awaiting the outcome of the post. I had to stop and make the realization that it's not real. Everything just seemed so plausible.

RYNO: - So in June - if you are wrong - are you going to stand up and take it like a man and admit it? OR - is this supposed to be completely a tounge-in-cheek post? If it was supposed to be funny...oh. 1. By June we’ll all be wondering how DeRosa is an upgrade to Todd Walker. 2. Rich Hill will come back down to earth. 3. By the end of the year we’ll be wondering what the Cub’s will do with the other year in Blanco’s contract. 4. Wood & Prior will combine for approximately 50-60 IP. 5. Pie will suck at the major league level… big time.

"It’s kind of a pathetic, but I actually found myself nervously awaiting the outcome of the post. I had to stop and make the realization that it’s not real. Everything just seemed so plausible." If that makes one pathetic, then I'm as guilty as you are.

That wouldn’t be coal, Hendry being fired would be the best stocking stuffer one could get… Gee, can't imagine why folks around here might think you have some sort of agenda against Hendry. I figure most Cubs fans would rather want a World Series championship as a stocking stuffer, but to each their own.

Rob G.: "Gee, can’t imagine why folks around here might think you have some sort of agenda against Hendry." I don't like him as the General Manager of the Chicago Cubs. Doesn't mean I have an agenda. Many people dislike Izturis as the starting SS for the Chicago Cubs (me included), doesn't mean they have an agenda against him, just wish the organization did a better job. "I figure most Cubs fans would rather want a World Series championship as a stocking stuffer, but to each their own." That would be more than a stocking stuffer..:) But yes, absolutely I would rather be wrong about Hendry and have the Cubs win a WS title. But to be honest, at this point, I just don't see it happening, but he will have another 162 games to prove me wrong, and I will be rooting the team on this year just as hard as I always have.

Great blog...but you forgot one thing....THE TOWEL DRILL!?!

The E-Man:
So in June - if you are wrong - are you going to stand up and take it like a man and admit it?
There's no need to be so standoffish, Eman. I have been wrong in the past and have admitted it. Example, I thought Mitre was going to be the next Brandon Webb. I was wayy off on that. I admitted it. Anyways, Rob G. entertained predictions in the post, and those are my predictions. If you don't like them, let's see your own predictions.

Rob G.:
someone put coal in Ryno’s stocking too.� That was pessimistic of me, wasn't it? How about this prediction: 6. Cub's win the division. Go Cubbies! ©

Hey, did you guys see this? It's a Cub's recliner. I had to laugh when I saw it and I wondered if any of the TCR crowd owns this. I was also trying to think of accessories they should sell with it, example: * Built-in tissue dispenser, so when the Cub's are robbed of a trip to the world series by a certain overzealous fan you can cry yourself to sleep in the chair without getting up. * Built-in AM radio, for those Sox-Cubs games that are called on TV by Hawk & DJ... you can hit mute and tune into WGN 720 instead. Any other ideas?

Aramis comes out the blocks slow and as usual, and hits .189 for the month(s) of April/May. Izzy wishes his BA was that good. Beers go up a dollar-fifty each and a riot starts out in right field. (Someone's got to pay the rent). At least the cellar will belong to someone else this year.

Jan 13th A press conference is held to announce the attendees for the 2007 Convention, Phil Rogers asked if there was any truth that Sammy Sosa was invited to attend and the Cubs were going to offer him an incentive laden contract. Jim Hendry had no comment but he did throw a Krispy Kreme at Rogers, witch was quickly retrieved by Carrie Muskat. Jan 22 Cubs announce the signing of Free Agent Sammy Sosa. pending a physical

Sounds like Wilken will have to get in line to have his differences out with RIcciardi behind Buddy Bell and Ted Lilly and then maybe he can address those problems!

Nice job Rob G. I would have thrown in a Felix Pie breaks Jerome Walton's hitting streak record on his way to RoY. A fun game: count how many mistakes Dayn Perry has in his trashing of the Zito deal at foxsports. I coun't 4

Thanks for the New Year's laughs, Rob. My predictions: June 16th: Len's 350th power-pop reference ("Izturis' balky hamstring not expected to be a material issue") August 20th: Santo's 5,000,000th "Gaa! JEEZ!" after Barry Zito hits a walk-off HR off Mark Prior in his return to action following surgery to repair bionic implants

new STL drinking game when watching the cards play...with kennedy and eckstein now on board...take a drink every time any announcer says "scrappy". you'll be sloshed before the 7th...just like harry.

Ryno: O.K. - that's better - a touch more optimism. I mean come On - you aren't that pessimistic all the time are ya? How about this New Years' prediction: 1. Cubs: 89 Wins 2. Izturis will not be the team's shortstop by the "break" or before. 3. DeRosa will be a nice surprise, but will be poor offensively at first and the fans will boo. He'll come on after the first 4-6 weeks... 4. Rich Hill will be solid and will turn into the team's solid #2 starter. 5. Lilly will do well, winning 15 games. 6. Marquis will be better than last year, and about what is to be expected for a 5th starter - except he'll have to pitch in the #4 slot! 7. As a former business major, Mark Prior will use his entrepreneur's skills and come up with a branded, mass-marketed towel for use in physical therapy. His pitching career will not resume with the Cubs until May, and he'll be servicable until he's traded at the deadline to a West Coast team.

According to a Mexican paper, Miguel Cabrera has a 200M extension on the table from the Marlins.

Wrong about Izturis, he'll hit 275 , play near gold glove defense and his pitcher will just go nuts over him being the SS and we'll worry about the other 7 hitters in the lineup and hope they hold up their part of the bargain.

Wrong about Izturis, he’ll hit 275 , play near gold glove defense and his pitcher will just go nuts over him being the SS and we’ll worry about the other 7 hitters in the lineup and hope they hold up their part of the bargain. You see, a .275 average would probably mean a .290 OBP, and Neifi redux. Plus, it appears Piniella is seriously thinking about Izworthless in the two spot, giving us a lead off man and two hitter who will probably combine for an OBP of about .310. Also, if Cub pitchers go gaga over Izturis, they are even more clueless than we expect. This staff will once again be one of the heaviest strike-out and flyball staffs in baseball. Put Theriot at SS, let him hit second because the almighty Alfonso just HAS to lead-off, and deal Izturis to a team that overvalues him like the Cubs.

How about this New Years’ prediction: 1. Cubs: 89 Wins i must have overlooked the announcement from mlb that there would be a 175 game scheduled for 2007. as things stand, this club may have recovered to .500. here's hoping hendry musters up his courage and trades for another starting pitcher. z/lilly/marquis/hill/sign-in-mystery-guest just doesnt get me all warm and fuzzy.

Izturis has maintained an OBP about 50 pts higher than his BA for the bulk of his career, if he hits 275, he'll likely have an OBP around .325. Soriano has a career .325 OBP and .340 when batting leadoff. let's address our supposed extreme flyball pitching staff: Career G/F Ratio: Z: 1.69 (but gradually going towards 1.0 , only 1.24 last year) Lilly: 0.82 Hill: 0.68 (I doubt he's that extreme but I don't have his minor league numbers) Marquis: 1.48 (1.16 last year) Miller: 1.22 Prior: 0.95 Dempster: 1.29 (1.75 last year, 2.69 in 2005, I think we all know he's pretty much an extreme groundball pitcher by this point) Cotts: 1.18 Howry: 0.83 Eyre: 1.00 Ohman: 1.06 (0.73 last year) Wood: 0.96 Wuertz: 1.05 (1.74 last year) So Z and Marquis are groundball pitchers (hopefully Z goes back to being more of a groundball pitcher along with Marquis) and Hill and Lilly are flyball pitchers. Break even. Then it depends on Prior or Miller, one who's pretty much break even (prior) the other a groundball pitcher (Miller). The bullpen looks about break even as well, just depends on who gets the most innings.

roths on prior from the latest trib article... ----- "I talked to him quite a bit before Christmas," Rothschild said. "In his mind, and in the trainer's mind, he would like to know sometime before spring training where he is [physically]. "He doesn't want to have the feeling he is letting people down like last year. I don't think he wants to go to spring training and have anything hanging over his head."

Thanks for your response Rob. I was a bit unkind to Izturis, but his lifetime OBP is only 36 points above his BA, so a .275 AVG would mean a .311 OBP. That doesn't cut it in the two hole in any shape or form. As for Soriano, my main point is that I think it is a joke that a guy who consistently slugs well over .500 is leading off. Especially when he only puts up an average, at best, OBP. For the additional 20-30 at bats he gets leading off over a season, I think he would be much more valuable hitting behind the number 2 and 3 hitters, rather than the 8 and 9 hitters. Plus, a Lee-Soriano combo would add a unique speed dimension in the middle of the order, especially with DP-prone Aramis hitting 5th. Finally, you're right that the Cubs are a middle of the pack fly ball staff. However, that combined with the fact that they easily led the majors again last year in strike outs resulted in them being dead last in MLB in ground ball outs induced. I have to think that when someone is drooling over Izturis's defense, he's not thinking about how well he goes back on a pop up.

Fair enough on the other points, but the discrepancy of Izturis's OBP to his BA has risen pretty much every year along with his pitches per plate appearances, so I'm not sure his career numbers are too relevant on this one. OBP over BA & #P/PA: 2001: 10/2.88 2002: 20/3.10 2003: 31/3.21 2004: 42/3.55 2005: 45/3.64 2006: 50/3.60 I'd think it's safe to assume that he's developing a little more patience as he gets older and I'd make a safe bet that it's a lot closer to 50 than 36. But he shouldn't be batting second in any lineup that's for sure.

Feburary 15th 2008: Pitchers and Catchers report, and Zambrano is standing at the camp telling pitchers to go home claiming he will pitch every game in 2008. Hendry decides Zambrano in the lineup everyday is needed more than having a good bullpen.

DC: "i must have overlooked the announcement from mlb that there would be a 175 game scheduled for 2007. as things stand, this club may have recovered to .500. here’s hoping hendry musters up his courage and trades for another starting pitcher. z/lilly/marquis/hill/sign-in-mystery-guest just doesnt get me all warm and fuzzy." I don't know what kind of agenda you're trying to pass off with that post, but come on....:) Just teasing of course, I agree very, very much with your post. Happy New Year!!

This is a .500 team right now at best. That may be enough in this division, but they're not a good team. Without some unexpected production from at least a couple of players this team will fail to even reach .500. Jim Hendry's spending spree this offseason seems to have bought him some slack from most Cubs fans for some reason. I'm not really sure why. He's taken a team that won 66 games and made them a 75 or 80 win team. He's done this while he's made the team payroll in 2007, 2008 and 2009 so large that it's going to be nearly impossible for this team to contend beyond 2007. Cubs fans are easy to please. Jim Hendry has put together an offseason that is not sufficient enough to make them contenders in 2007 while at the same time making it nearly impossible for them to contend in the next 3 or 4 years. This has been his most destructive offseason as the Cubs General Manager yet Cubs fans are thrilled with the work he's done.

Lester, damn dude, your a bummer of a guy. It is going to be nearly impossible for the Cubs to contend beyond 2007??!?! As opposed to what, our last 98 years of contending? The team that won 66 games didn't have Derrek Lee and Alfonso Soriano who between them provide 200 RBI, 80 HR's, and 200 runs scored. The team that won 66 games didn't have anyone behind Carlos Zambrano picking up the slack. We now have 2 guys capable of pitching 400 innings, winning 30 games and having an ERA in the low 4.00's. If the #4 and #5 guys are capable of winning 10 games each in 30 starts then you got 65 wins coming from your rotation alone. I think a lot of people forget that Angel Guzman, Mark Prior, Juan Mateo, Glendon Rusch, Wade Miller, Kerry Wood, and Carlos Marmol combined for 60 starts and 11 wins. You may not like the Marquis signing but he won 14 games in 33 starts and he costed a hell of a lot less than that collection of pitchers. Ted Lilly won 15 games in 32 starts, but hey we aren't improved in the slightest bit by replacing those 60 starts with Marquis and Lilly. Give me a break. I am a pretty harsh critique of the Cubs faults and weaknesses over the years and I can't find much to complain about this off-season. If you thinking adding all these players is destructive then what do you call the last 98 years of losing? Our Golden Age of championship teams? I don't know how much more destructive an organization such as the Cubs can get after the last 98 years.

the lester arguement's already happened i believe. no matter what is said he's gonna keep that stance. http://mvn.com/mlb-cubs/?comments_popup=47 that thread gives the reasoning...i dont find much weight in it, but that's his view. a lotta it is based on a slew of stats that don't really apply to a 2006 team vs. 2007 team arguement and dont take in account what was actually being played on the field last year. a lotta it comes from a bad misuse of stats to build a case.

If you had to pick for center field, would you move Soriano there and have Murton play left? Cause im tierd of seeing no one in left field. Who would you have in center? Also I go to the team website at yahoo sports and for latest team photos its a photo of Ken Griffy Jr. on the on deck circle. Come on /: (

Opps, should proof read, i'm tierd of seeing no one in center field not left.

Lester: "He’s (Hendry) taken a team that won 66 games and made them a 75 or 80 win team. He’s done this while he’s made the team payroll in 2007, 2008 and 2009 so large that it’s going to be nearly impossible for this team to contend beyond 2007." While, yes the money already spent in future years is really high, we don't know what the plan is of the Trib as to the payroll in those future payrolls. They have shown they are willing to spend more money now, so maybe they will continue to raise it in future years to give the GM flexibility to fill holes. But if, 2007 equals a WS title, then I will deal with the worries about 2009 and on at that time.

Lester, you're insane. There is no reason why this team cannot compete next year. They, when healthy, have the best lineup this side of Boston. And with just a little bit of starting pitching, which was upgraded from last year this team is in good shape to win well over 81 games.

my short review of the offseason... Offense it really depends on how CF and Jones plays out. If all stays the same and we add Floyd, that's an offense with a lot of depth and pop. Certainly better than what we had going into 2003. OBP will always be an issue with this team, but it MIGHT be less of an issue with Lee presumably healthy, Soriano's spike last year is for real and a coaching staff that at least doesn't piss on the concept like the last regime. I certainly don't believe we'll be last again. Pitching: Well obviously the plan was to get innings out of the starters and it really depends on if Marquis goes back to his 2004/2005 ways and if Lilly does enjoy the fruits of the NL. But yeah, I would have done things a little differently cause I believe we're basically relying now on the unknowns of Prior/Hill instead of Prior/Wood. At least Hill will probably be healthy. Bullpen could be amazing with a Dumpster bounceback and/or Wood being healthy. Also quite a bit a depth there imo, starters and bullpen. I'm certainly not ready to pencil them in as winner of anything yet because well the offseason isn't over yet. But I think Hendry for the most part got the best players to fill the roles needed.

Happy New Year all! Here is something from our great "Sage", Carrie "Muskrat", in case you missed it: "Grading on a curve: The Cubs were aggressive, signing Soriano, Ramirez, DeRosa, Wood, Miller, Marquis and Blanco to deals before Thanksgiving, totaling more than $230 million. Soriano, coming off a 40-40 season, should thrive at Wrigley Field, and could be a 50-homer player. The rotation added an innings-eater in Lilly. On a scale of one to 10, give them a 7: improved and hoping for good health."

even if you dont like derosa and izturis its hard to argue against soriano/dlee/aram/barrett...and you gotta hate murton + have nothing but incompetence marked for j.jones or his unknown replacement for being the guys backing up that core of 4. in my view i've already added murton in with those 4 and would make jones a #6 if he sticks around...that's my opinion, though. the IF is above average with the gloves across the board with barrett being the weak link there...and its not like he's incompetent, he's just a guy you can steal on more often that he should be. the OF depends on how well soriano adjusts to his new position and whoever is playing in jones' spot (which will hopefull be jones, i hope). the pen is just strong, period (even without a show-stopper closer)...the starting crew is debatable depending on how you feel about everyone but Z and there's enough back/forth on the whole thing that im not gonna rehash it.

I agree. Plus, this team did what they needed to do after a dismal season like '06: bring in lots of new faces and shake things up. It remains to be seen if the culture will change, but I'm optimistic.

There is no reason why this team cannot compete next year. They, when healthy, have the best lineup this side of Boston. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Chad I'm going to assume you've heard of the Yankees who despite losing Sheffield and looks to have a Doug Mientkiewitz/J.Phelps type at 1B, still boasts a better lineup than even Boston from top to bottom. With all the K's the Cubs won't lead the NL in runs scored.

IFC, fine. They do not have a better lineup than the Yankees. It was more of a figure of speech. So, they have the best lineup in the national league. And K's don't determine runs scored. The Cubs had the 7th least amount of strikeouts in baseball last year - 928 (I was actually suprised by this) whle the indians struck out 1204 and finished second in runs.

From my Archives on 2006-2007 FA Pitchers: From the rumormonger on 10/14/2006 Want someone who's plain tough to hit?  Good luck with that. With BABIPs adjusted to the league average, here are the best free agent pitchers in hits per nine innings.  The following group allowed fewer than a hit per inning. Jason Schmidt, Ted Lilly, Barry Zito, Mike Mussina, Gil Meche, Roger Clemens, Byung-Hyun Kim, Andy Pettitte, Vicente Padilla Best control? Here are the rankings. Carlos Silva, Greg Maddux, Jeff Weaver, Woody Williams, Roger Clemens, Jamie Moyer, Jason Johnson, Aaron Sele, Brian Moehler

Mets have the best lineup in the NL. I think if the Cubs stay healthy they'll be top 5 in runs scored. That's probably more of a feeling by me than based on any real hard evidence, but I'm feeling optimistic with the turn of the calendar.

dodgers look pretty good...with good pitching, too. no real 40-50hr proven tallent, but the team will have it's share of 10-30hr types scattered throughout...and a very annoying pierre/furcal 1/2. im glad the mets didnt land zito even if he ended up in the NL anyway. mets and dodgers are the only NL teams right now that really concern me as a cubs fan. houston could be interesting, too (especially if they land roger or make another trade to take on someone's payroll conern...they still got money). stl has a lot to prove with their pitching and very little to fall back on as of right now.

Rob, still think were slightly better. Lee can still out hit Delgado, Soriano still out hits Beltran and ARam still outhits Wright.

I wouldn't call Houston awful especially if Clemens comes back. WIthout Clemens they seem to be just another team around the .500 mark that needs a lot of breaks to go there way, kind of like the Cubs and most every other team in the NL. Dodgers have good pitching, but who the hell is going to be even near 30 homers on that team? If they can get something for Penny, but right now Gonzalez/Kent are their big power threats. Ugh.

oh Chad, unless Soriano continues the on-base upswing, it's Beltran quite considerably with the lead. I'd give Lee the lead over Delgado but not by much Ramirez vs Wright, slight nod Ramirez Barrett>Loduca Derosa vs. Valentin, who knows? Reyes >>>>>>>>>> (x infinity) Izturis Alou > Murton/Floyd (by a bit) Green vs Jones - push basically of course when it's Endy Chavez vs Murton/Floyd, that's a big difference and it really depends on what we end up doing with Jones. If he's replaced with Pie or some vet crap, we're going to be well behind.

sorry off topic. anyone know the link for that crazy german cub fan?

scroll down like two posts off the front page to a post labeled TCR Friday Notes and it's at the bottom of that post...

Rob I disagree with your assessment on Soriano. You base it solely on OBP. That is only one stat. Soriano still out homers and out steals Beltran. I love Beltran but I still give a slight nod to Soriano. But you seem to agree with me on Lee and Ram over Gado and Wright (slightly and that is what I said too).

tyvm

I totally disagree that Ramirez is better than Wright. Wright does everything Ramirez can do only better and faster. He plays gold glove defense, he can steal bases, and he can hit for power and is an RBI threat. He is the most complete 3rd baseman outside of Scott Rolen and his injuries in baseball. Wright is the better player across the board. I would deep six Ramirez in a heart beat for him.

Oh and Boise State just won one of the more amazing games of College Football I have ever seen. Statue of Liberty play at the end for the win.

Mike, David Wright may become a better player than Aram, but he has not done it yet. Aram outhits David Wright so far. Wright hasn't even topped 30 homers yet. Aram has done it 4 times, granted in more years. But that is exactly why I say that Wright may BECOME better but right now, ARam is a superior batter. And I was not talking about defense when I said we have the best lineup in the national league.

So just cuz Ramirez hits more HR's he is better? That is a pretty silly defense. Wright had a .912 OPS Ramirez had a .913. He is just as good as Ramirez with the bat....add in his speed and defense and it's not really a debate who is better.

Then we should start a debate. Here ya go: Best finish to a Boise State/Oklahoma game. Discuss. For the record, I think it was the one that just ended.

Oh and I forgot I will take David Wright's .365 BA, .449 OBP with RISP over Ramirez's .293, .378 last year. The guy is already a monster with RISP.

the discussion was just offense I thought, if you want to throw in defense, I'll change my evualtion of players. I'll retract my quite considerably comment, offensively I'd say Beltran is slightly better than Soriano. Throw in defense though, then I'll go back to quite considerably. German fan link, damn you for making me look it up. :) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N5zEHF_ajIw

watched the end of that game, pretty fun. Boise State pulled out the whole bag of tricks, hook n' ladder, statue of liberty, couple of others. Pretty sweet! It's going to be fun to watch Boise State try to extend this cinderalla story..oh wait....their undefeated season is over and they had no real chance to play the best teams. YEAH BCS!!!

Wright also strikes out a ton more than Aram but doesn't walk that much more. And yes, home runs means a ton. Wright's OPS is only close because of his higher OBP equals out the stat. But when considering sluggers, actual slugging percentage is far more important. I don't care for OPS as I don't believe in adding two percentages to get a stat.

OPS baaaaaaadddd Hulk angry at OPS! 2+2 not equal 4... argggghhhhh

yeah, smart folks use GPA where they weigh OBP 1.8 times more important than SLG. Just crazy stats guys who don't know anything though...

BJS, 2 + 2 = 4 yes but if a guy is 2/4 in one game (.500) and 3/6 in the next (.500) he's not batting 1.000! You don't add averages. If anyone can show me any statistical method outside of baseball that ADDS averages to get a meaningful stat, I'll shut up.

re: dodgers they dont have the huge power bats, but they do have kent, lgonz, etheir, nomar, furcal, betemit (if full time at 3rd which is where i think he's slated) all in that 15-30hr area with doubles power to compliment. russel martin, who's also got a bit power, catching...pierre leading off... personally, i like the dodgers pitching...

Chad:
If anyone can show me any statistical method outside of baseball that ADDS averages to get a meaningful stat, I’ll shut up.
Team OPS directly relates to runs scored per game. Has something to do with getting on base, then slugging the ball. I didn't used to believe in OPS until I saw it for myself. E-mail me at: [email protected] and I'll send you the Excel file. It's compelling.

chad, you don't add averages if they are both the same one like you did (AVG+AVG). it can be meaningful if you add two different categories like OBP and SLG which by the way is the very definition of the stat OPS (OBP PLUS SLG). it is a very meaningful stat as crunch just mentioned because of the direct relationship between team OPS and runs scored (i.e. the higher the OPS of the team, the more runs they score).

mlb.com:
Teams will continue to pester the Indians with offers for Jake Westbrook, who is signed through '07. But unless the Indians are overwhelmed, they aren't likely to bite. What is assured is that the Tribe will be looking for a middle infielder particularly adept at shortstop to back up Jhonny Peralta, who's coming off a disappointing '06.
Click Here for the full story. Jones/Cedeno/Marmol - Westbrook? Jones/Cedeno/Harben - Westbrook? What do you think?

for manny: http://preview.tinyurl.com/ybc2m4 BP's Top 10 Giants prospect list Excellent 1. Tim Lincecum RHP Very Good 2. Angel Villalona 3b 3. Jonathan Sanchez, LHP Good 4. Emmanuel Burriss, SS Average 5. Eddy Martinez-Estevee, LF 6. Sharlon Schoop, SS 7. Fred Lewis, LF/CF 8. Nate Schierholtz, LF 9. Billy Sadler, RHP 10. Mike McBryde, CF BP says Lincecum should start out at AA next year, so enjoy. Assuming normal progression, doesn't look like anyone else on the list will start the year there.

I am pretty sure .912 OPS in Shea is better than .913 in Wrigley. Also, of the two components, OBP is more important. A team that has a 1.000 OBP and a .500 slugging is going to score a lot more runs (pretty much infinite) than a team with a 1.000 Slugging and .500 OBP. Wright's career BA OBP SLG are all better than Ramirez's. But, yeah, if you don't count hitting and baserunning I would take Ramirez over Wright.

Ryno, I know all the arguments and I have seen it all here many times over. It is obvious that if you have many people on base throughout the season and you hit many extra base hits during the season, you will score runs. That's not my point. My point is this, great players hit the ball really well, they will hit many home runs as well as other multi-base and single base hits. Good sluggers always get on base. I don't need to look at a stat like OBP or OPS to know how good Albert Puljos is. Its the application of OPS that I think everyone has taken the wrong way. OPS as used in a moneyball philosophy is not needed to evaluate marquee players. Its used for lesser player to see what kind of net result they can bring to the table.

I am pretty sure that Wright only plays half of his games and at Shea and Aram only plays half at Wrigley. As well, Wright has yet to hit 30 homers in one season. I would also say that you cannot go to the career SLG. So it took Aram a couple of more years to develop than Wright. It happens. So lets look at the last three years. Of which Aram has outplayed Wright. Will Wright get better? Maybe. Maybe he becomes Brooks Robinson and Mike Schmidt and Craig Nettles are rolled into one but not yet. To this day Aramis has out performed Wright. And your last little comment, can you be more douchey?

Good point, and I'm totally on board with that, Chad. Even guys like Dunn or Swisher who don't hit for average get on base.

Aramis has outplayed Wright over the last 3 years? Technically true because Wright barely has played 2 1/2 seasons in the majors. The only true comparison you can do is the last 2 years. And well Wright is better in almost every single category. Who out played who? David Wright did.

The site seems to be acting weird, my comment box doesn't update with the new comments but they seem to be there when I go to the permalink. Weird...

Hmmm my post didn't show up, take 2..... Aramis has outplayed Wright over the last 3 years? Technically true because Wright barely has played 2 1/2 seasons in the majors. The only true comparison you can do is the last 2 years. And well Aramis isn't out performing Wright over the last 2 years thats for sure.

Good point, and I'm totally on board with that, Chad. And people do put way too much stock into the stats.

Not really Mike. Aram has out slugged him and last year out RBI'd him. Two years ago he out homered Wright in 123 games and almost got him in RBIs while playing nearly 40 less games. Look, Wright may develop into a much better player but not yet.

Boise State - Guys, I fell asleep after the Rose. HAs anyone seen highlights on Youtube? Links? Also - Jhonny Peralta? Was he dyslexic? Never seen this spelling before! ROB G: What was up with the server from early a.m. until now? I could not retrive the site.

brendon "i want new luggage for xmas" harris traded from the reds to the drays...next stop...japan.

Yeah I couldn't get into the site either... Thanks Rob G. for the SF Giants list. I really hope Lincecum starts here. He is suppose to be a STUD.

Our favorite former LF bust, Jason Dubois was signed to a minor league deal with the Baltimore Orioles.

Well you have to play to put up the stats Chad. They don't award the Tour de France to the fastest guy who dropped out after the first couple stages. The fact is over the last 2 years, David Wright has out performed Aramis across the board. He is the better player the last 2 years from hitting, to defense, to running the bases.

So Aubrey Huff signs with the Orioles (yawn), meaning Cliff Floyd is one step closer to becoming a Chicago Cub. Right?

If I'm reading the Tribune article on Larry Rothschild correctly, it sounds like Mark Prior is as big of a question mark as ever. Gee, there's a surprise. Stick a fork in him folks. That nasty case of vaginitis that has plagued him for three years will plague him for a fourth.

Mike, its just not true. Aram's got him in homers and slugging in each of the last two seasons.

David Wright vs. Aramis Ramirez I would take Wright 100 times out of 100 over A-Ram. Wright is an exceptionally gifted talent.

That was not the argument Towel. I would take Wright as well. But that is because I think he will continue to get better. Right now Aram has out hit Wright and will probably do the same this year.

they were having traffic issues and started caching stuff including the comments which meant they wouldn't show up right away... I'm not exactly sure if it's all quite fixed yet. http://preview.tinyurl.com/18r stuff about Samardzijia making a decison. Mentions he's probably a 2nd round pick but may fall due to being non-committal and not much is guaranteed if you're not a 1st round pick. Says he topped out at 99 mph while at Notre Dame.

well this is getting annoying with the comments... anyway Keith Foulke taking a physical for the Indians, sounds like a one year deal with a mutual option for 2008.

http://preview.tinyurl.com/18r updated the FA Frenzy contest, only Real Neal had the Giants anyway for a mere 3 pts so not much changed. Chifan3887 is the winner. I'll put up something more formal in the near future.

Yea...I would take Wright over Ramirez any day also.

99 mph fastball vs. slow white wide receiver? Hmmmmm....which one will make more money in sports?

Can't he just be a slow wide receiver? And is he really slow? Or are you just assuming he's slow because he's white? Honest questions, I don't know much about his football game.

He's not that slow, though I don't know his actual 40 speed. Mel Kiper says this: 6. Jeff Samardzija Sr. WR Notre Dame Great hands and speed for his size. I have yet to find a 40 time.

Here we go. He runs/ran a 4.6. Which is not elite speedster, but not slow either, especially for his size and hands.

sam's gonna have to just love football to walk away from the millions he'd give up with baseball. i just hope if he chooses the cubs we wont have to hear about football this and football that for the next 2-4 years.

Here's what it says about him at that link: "Weaknesses: Lacks elite timed speed...Will likely have a hard time separating from cornerbacks at the next level and won't be much of a deep threat..." So can he be a good WR in the NFL, maybe (I don't think so, myself) but my whole point is that is baseball skills afford him a much higher ceiling as far as earning potential.

CRUNCH: "...sam’s gonna have to just love football..." You have some interesting ways of using your own abbreviations for athlete's names. Living pretty close to South Bend, I have NEVER seen "sams". Maybe you should trademark it in case he becomes huge? Go internet!

My guess is Jeff S. projects to be a 3rd/4th string possession receiver like Brandon Stokely of the Colts. If he has any kind of control to go with that 99mph fastball then he should top out as a #1-#3 SP. Hmmm pretty obvious what choice he should take. Factor in that NFL players don't have as long a career so he has less opportunity there to accumulate the big bucks.

yeah, im not following much convention when shortening people's names sometimes...just following the flow of the convo and hoping it doesnt get lost in the mix. "sams" comes from nothing other than not wanting to call him "samninja"

lol... funny, could be true if you believe Texas came out on top on that deal.

espn's recently renewed and front-page-hyped team depth charts are out... includes the gems of cedeno at SS, soriano at CF, and jones in RF....mark prior the #3 starter (with marquis/hill following). an expanded view of the team shows that izturis isnt even a cub...how about that. maybe he's gonna pitch. http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/teams/depth?team=chc

"...an expanded view of the team shows that izturis isnt even a cub…how about that. maybe he’s gonna pitch." LOL! Do you think Lou would PH Z or Marquis for Izturis, ala LaRussa? I'm wondering if he has a track record of doing this at his other manager's spots?

crunch:
espn’s recently renewed and front-page-hyped team depth charts are out…
Ouch, according to that, the Cub's only have 1 left-handed bat, and he's wanting to be traded. Yikes.
The E-Man:
I’m wondering if he has a track record of doing this at his other manager’s spots?
His previous jobs have been AL teams, except for, I think the Red's for a short time, so I don't think there's much of a track record.

Rocco Baldelli. Sean Marshall, Will Ohman and Scott Moore, does that get it done? Then trade Jones for a prospect or two, sign Floyd as 4th OF, and call it an offseason. Note to Lou Pa: at least TRY hitting Murton 2nd in Arizona, OK? Trust me, you'll like it.

that thread gives the reasoning…i dont find much weight in it, but that’s his view. a lotta it is based on a slew of stats that don’t really apply to a 2006 team vs. 2007 team arguement and dont take in account what was actually being played on the field last year. a lotta it comes from a bad misuse of stats to build a case.
What? How do stats not apply when we're talking about one season to the next? I suppose if I said Juan Pierre would not hit 25 home runs that it's an inappropriate statement because we just don't know what he's going to do next year. Bullshit! We know what nearly every player's capabilities and reasonable expectations are. You can choose to ignore them if it helps you sleep at night, but don't try for one second to say that it's an example of misusing stats because it is not. It's not using the stats you like, but you're using ones that paint this team in as good a light as possible. This idea that Soriano and Lee are worth 80 home runs, 200 RBIs and 200 runs scored is a joke. How many times has each of these players hit 40 home runs and how many times have each driven in 100 and scored 100? And, most importantly, are RBIs and runs scored a team dependent stat? Yes, they are. The Cub Reporter used to offer some of the best analysis of any blog when it began and it's turned into a site not much different than the cubs.com message board. It's a shame what Ruz has allowed to happen to his site.

Lester, you’re insane. There is no reason why this team cannot compete next year. They, when healthy, have the best lineup this side of Boston. And with just a little bit of starting pitching, which was upgraded from last year this team is in good shape to win well over 81 games.
Are you serious? The current Cubs lineup is: Soriano Izturis Lee Ramirez Jones Barrett Murton DeRosa Pitcher If that's the 2nd best lineup in baseball then baseball needs to rid itself of not just 2 teams via contraction, but about 16 to 20 teams. Shooting this statement down statistically isn't even worth the time it would take it's such an absurd claim. Isn't it ironic that Cubs fans whine, bitch, moan and complain about the Cubs not using stats to eveluate players when they, themselves, don't even care about them in the first place?

Statements that don't agree with the company line just get deleted now?

The probability of Sam becoming a quality NFL wide receiver and getting a quality paycheck are much greater than the chances of him becoming a quality major league baseball pitcher and getting a similar quality paycheck. His chances of "cashing in" playing baseball are materially riskier than his chances of doing the same in the NFL. It's just a fact. Personally, I think he will perform quite nicely at the NFL level and would be a fool to pass up that opportunity. He should bone up on the great decision making of Josh Booty, Drew Henson and Joe Borchard for further proof of what should be the right decision for himself.

Lester: "This idea that Soriano and Lee are worth 80 home runs, 200 RBIs and 200 runs scored is a joke." Even if they are "worth" those stats, it is not like the Cubs will be adding those stats. You have to take into account the players who they are replacing and their stats. For example: Cubs at 1B last year: 25 HR, 90 RBI and 81 runs Cubs at CF last year: 3 HR, 41 RBI and 88 runs So even if Soriano and Lee are worth those original stats, the Cubs only add 52 HR, 69 RBI and 31 runs. Definitely nice additions, but not as shock and awe as the original stats look. And that is another reason why I think the team hasn't improved as much as most think.

You can choose to ignore them if it helps you sleep at night, but don’t try for one second to say that it’s an example of misusing stats because it is not. Comparing Soriano's '06 to his career numbers is a misuse of stats if you're trying to gauge the improvement to the Cubs offense simply because it's irrelevant; the Cubs didn't have Soriano in 06, they had Pierre. Do you honestly believe Soriano isn't an improvement over Pierre? Ditto Lee. Lee lost 400+ at bats to injury and most of those at bats went to scrubs like Mabry and Neifi. Why don't you do a little statistical analysis of Lee versus those players? Beyond that, you can't look at stats alone to declare that a player won't repeat a prior year's performance. Lee is a perfect example of that: his '05 surge wasn't the result of luck (high BABIP), it was the result of a change in his approach that closed a hole in his swing and let him make better use of his power and plate discipline. You look at his stats and say "career year" while someone who watched his mechanics closely will say "different player."

LESTER: "The Cub Reporter used to offer some of the best analysis of any blog when it began and it’s turned into a site not much different than the cubs.com message board. It’s a shame what Ruz has allowed to happen to his site." Dude, if you really feel this way, it would be apparent that you would be more comfortable at 1060 West, where its "Neg 24X7, all the time". Best of Luck, Happy New Year, and Don't let the door hit you on the way out.

Cubs at 1B last year: 25 HR, 90 RBI and 81 runs That's just a bit misleading dontcha think? If Dusty had simply inserted Mabry/Nevin/whoever from the bench and put them in at 1st, you could use this line of reasoning. However, that's not what happened. In reality, DLee's replacement in the lineup came largely from Neifi and Hairston, even though they were playing 2nd base defensively.

Something is seriously wonky with the server. Posts seem to be taking quite awhile to appear and I'm not entirely sure if they're coming up in order.

Actually a few good tidbits from Muskat's mailbag: - Looks like #31 will be retired sometime in the near future as Lilly was not allowed to use that number. Most likely after Maddux retires. - According to Elias Sports Bureau, Ryan Dempster was the worst closer in baseball in 1-2-3 innings. He retired the side 21 times out of his 75 innings. - Another reason to really question the MLB HOF: Carrie Muskat has an official vote. HOW SAD!!!:(

Manny - "So even if Soriano and Lee are worth those original stats, the Cubs only add 52 HR, 69 RBI and 31 runs." Even if you take those figures at face value (even though Lee was replaced by Neifi, essentially), that's still fantastic. 69 RBI + 31 R = 100 extra guys crossing the plate next year. 100 runs is the difference between a bad offensive team and a good offensive team. The Cubs scored 713 runs in 2006, good for 28th in the league. 713+100=813, or 11th in the majors. That's a pretty huge swing if you ask me. Not to mention, you have to account for intangible benefits of an improved lineup. It's harder for opposing pitchers to pitch around guys if you have all that extra power in the lineup. Also, the lineup will be turned over faster and we'll get into opponents' bullpens sooner. All good things.

Another reason to really question the MLB HOF: Carrie Muskat has an official vote. Normally this would make me sick. But wasn't she the one who just wrote the real nice case for Hawk (Dawson, not Harrelson)?

Doug D.: "69 RBI + 31 R = 100 extra guys crossing the plate next year." That is flawed thinking as a good chunk of those are duplicate as HR's would be counted as a run and RBI, but really only account for one run. But still it is an improvement, but again not as much, IMO, as many on here are thinking.

Here's the total performance by the 2006 Cubs broken down by position. Hopefully it'll format correctly: P  AB  HR RBI BB  SO  Line C  603 21  89 46  81 .287/.341/.473 1B 609 25  90 67 127 .266/.337/.437 2B 627 13  57 48  75 .274/.326/.411 3B 627 39 121 50  70 .282/.340/.544 SS 615  4  50 24 116 .246/.275/.324 LF 610 17  76 57  98 .280/.346/.428 CF 703  3  41 33  39 .294/.333/.393 RF 628 31  94 42 130 .288/.337/.498 Personally, I think it's reasonable to expect a slight drop at C, roughly the same performance at 3B, and small to large boosts at every other position. No, it's not the Yankees or the BoSox or probably even the Mets, but it's a solidly improved lineup.

Number 31 should be retired in Jenkins' name, not Maddux's.

# 31 should be retired in Jenkins' name, not Maddux's.

Sorry about the double post. My first didn't show up right away.

Manny: "That is flawed thinking as a good chunk of those are duplicate as HR’s would be counted as a run and RBI, but really only account for one run." Good point. I still think that with all the improvements to the lineup, another year of seasoning for Murton, more reliable production from 2B, and a full year of D-Lee, the offense easily improves by 100 runs. The pitching/defense should also improve with a full year (hopefully) of D-Lee's Gold Glove at 1B, Izturis's great D at SS, and (again, hopefully) a set pitching rotation. I can't envision any scenario, barring catastrophic injuries, that this team doesn't contend.

Am I the only one having a lot of trouble with the site today? Comments in the popup window are different than the ones under the permalink, and it seems to be taking a very long time for any comments to show up. The old TCR site may not have been the snazziest site on the web, but at least it was reliable...

Doug D.: "the offense easily improves by 100 runs." I hope you are right. That would be an outstanding improvement. My guess right now is around a 60 run improvement.

Yeah Vorare I am having problems too and there were even bigger problems yesterday as the site was down most of the day. Go Internet...

Barring any major/extended injuries, this team wins at least 85 games as is. The '06 team, like the majority of the Dusty-era Cubs, crumbled in the face of adversity. There was an almost complete offensive power outage after D-Lee went down. Aramis and Pierre didn't show up until June, Lee missed most of the season, Murton had a rookie slump early on and Jacque had a slow start. Alot of things went wrong all around the same time. The offense bounced back in the 2nd half last year, ranking 5th in runs scored, but the starting pitching stunk all season. Cubs starters had the 2nd worst ERA in the NL last season. A full season of Lee & Soriano is a massive improvement over Pierre and Neifi. Z, Lilly, Hill, Marquis, Miller will be a significant improvement over the carnage we witnessed from the rotation last year.

Tbone-- Hear hear. Why have the Cubs snubbed Fergie for so long? Because of his pot bust? That seems almost quaint with the passage of time, given all the deadbeats we have in baseball today. How about we focus on the numbers and note that Fergie was pretty much without question, the 2nd or 3rd best pitcher in the history of the franchise (gotta give #1 to 3-finger, and probably #2 to 19th century guy John Clarkson). All Fergie did was take the ball every single time his number came up, and pitch. Well. Retire his number already. I have a framed #31 signed by Fergie with his HOF and Cy Young notations, it's one of my proudest Cub mementos. He signed it for me in person, very cool!

I agree with bjs above, Cubs look to me like they've improved this offseason back to .500 status or maybe a bit better if everything falls into place. Not great, but the NL is very weak right now, and our division particularly so. 85 wins might just be good enough for the postseason. I would feel a lot better about things though if Hendry acquired one more bat, and Kerry Wood emerges as a quality closer by summertime.

seems to not be working in the pop-up window but okay on the permalink I believe...hmm

Rob G- On Dimaggio, My dad told me that story also, and the reason why they didn't was because of his knee. It's up there with Mays trying out for Red Sox in Boston and someone from stands yelled "Get that n*****r off the field!" No wonder Cubs and BoSox have two champsionships between them in last 100 years.

seems to be working now....email me or drop a comment if it starts happening again.

Eric the Great: "Why have the Cubs snubbed Fergie for so long? Because of his pot bust?" I think he has been "snubbed" so far for 2 reasons. 1) It was not just pot he got busted with, it was also cocaine. And with the PR sensitive Cubs, they wanted time to heal that wound some. 2) Since Maddux also wore that number, they figured all along that they would just retire the number once in honor of both guys after Maddux retired.

Carrie Muskat has a vote and Nate Silver doesn't? Well, she does a nice PR job after all...

#31 Couldn't they retire for BOTH? I mean, two great players wearing the same number? Its like, "which child do you love more?". Would this be unprecedented?

I know that Maddux and Fergy were both great players, but they also both spent large chunks of their careers playing for other teams. It just strikes me that in the first 100 years of the franchise the Cubs retired only 2 numbers, and now they are making plans to retire a 3rd number since 03. Personally, I like that the Cubs honor their great players both with flags above the grandstand and with banners in the concorses and I think both players a very deserving of those honors. But I also like that the Cubs reserve retired numbers only for the elite who spent the vast majority of their careers as members of the Cubs. Neither Fergy or Maddux meet that threshold in my book, and honoring them in this fashion sets a bad precident in my opinion.

Wikipedia- "Dickey was inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame in 1954. In 1972, when Berra was elected to the Hall of Fame, the Yankees retired uniform number 8 for both men."

Comments are no longer on the permalink? Is that change going to stick?

I'm still getting comments when I click on the permalink. Is it not working for you Dave?

and now they're gone, okay.... we'll get it fixed.

No...I am only getting the original post, but none of the comments.

I sent an email out to the admin, when I first clicked on the permalink I saw your comment #184, but after I submitted my message it all disappeared.

Maddux does not deserve to have his number retired as a Cub. As a Brave, yes. But not as a Cub. Fergie? I don't think he did enough as a Cub to warrant it either. Just getting to the Hall of Fame doesn't mean you deserve your number retired.

Is anyone else already fed up of the new MVN.com engine/design? Just saying...

Cotts also gets a $150,000 bonus for being WS MVP. Newhan probably going to Mets according to SI's Jon Heyman.

how quickly we forget about the first day of winter meetings when the site was completely shutdown at the old servers. (something that seemed to be happening with more frequency) We're basically the guinea pigs for the move over. The quirks will get worked out and eventually they'll be some more bells and whistles. Your cubs fans that have been waiting for a WS championship for 98 years, I'm hoping you guys can remain patient for a few weeks while they get everything figured out.

Rob, that's why there's testing and beta versions exist. I don't mean the servers, they're working fine (especially for a site the size of Australia), but the Movable Type engine (I'm a huge fan) is at least 2x easier to configure and mantain than Wordpress. Plus, something as easy as changing the color palette for TCR hasn't been done. I swear, that could be done in twenty minutes.

I agree with the basic sentiments of Bleeding Blue and Chad, the Cubs need to be very selective on who they retire numbers of. If not, it could lead to a very slippery slope like the Yankees where they have 16 numbers retired. In another 100 years, they might be wearing numbers in the 100's. And yes they have had many GREAT/ELITE players, but they retired Ron Guidry's number for christs sake. But I don't have a problem retiring #31 for both of them, but besides #21, for you know who, there really shouldn't be anyone else at this point who will even be considered. And with the way FA has changed teh game, the chances anymore of a player staying on a team for 10 years or more are getting slimmer and slimmer, thus making it less likely a Cub player will get their number retired. Except for #13 for NEIFI!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Correction: "that's why there's a thing called site testing and why beta versions exist."

The Wikipedia entry for Neifi! Pérez is hilarious; some excerpts: However, during the 2006 season he attempted to bunt for a hit with two outs in the 9th inning, leading many to question his knowledge of the game. Despite a strong debut with the Cubs in 2004 and a strong start in 2005 which led to Dusty Baker deciding to make Pérez the everyday shortstop, Pérez' offensive numbers slowly descended closer to his career numbers. Pérez's offense has attracted serious criticism, and has even led to him being the namesake of the Neifi Index.

well the big thing that need to be tested is how it handles traffic and commenting, none of that will happen without you fine people though. As for Wordpress vs Movable Type, I don't know much about the inner workings nor do I have access, but just in terms of posting and plugins I 've read about, wordpress seems far better. The comment moderating and IP address lookup are already far better for me. Spam has been pretty much eliminated as well as duplicate comments and until the last two days, the comments were loading far quicker. I'm hoping to add an HTML toolbar to the comments and get rid of the jibberish above the typing box, as well as automatically shortening URL's and a preview button.

On the retired numbers thing I think it is important as to which team they will go into the Hall of Fame representing. Fergie went in as a Cub and has generally been identified as a Cub, hence I'm for his number being retired. Maddux will not go in as a Cub and should not have his number retired. If I had to decide that #31 was retired for both or neither, I would vote for neither.

according to the Sport Business Journal (Bud Selig on da cover)...DirectTV is in negotiations with MLB for **EXCLUSIVE** rights to air MLB-EI. this would be huge huge huge suck for people like me that live in a damn forest of trees and can only get cable.

if you must know, I believe they tried to implement a caching system of some sort to help with the traffic and the comments would get cached and not show up immediately. Seems to be fixed. I haven't checked the permalink thing yet but I'm sure it will be back up. Are there other issues I'm missing?

sucks for a lot of people, good for DirecTV though and the money that MLB will get for it.

The sidebars on the right are a little of of margin, but that's a design issue. I don't mind it, but I don't know if Brandon has seen that yet.

I thought DirecTV already had the exclusive rights for broadcasting the Extra Innings package... so, do some cable companies offer the EI package as a HBO-like added cost?

"Why have the Cubs snubbed Fergie for so long? Because of his pot bust?" his canadian/US border coke bust didnt go over too well, either. not like he was a pedro guerrero-type mule (man did he get lucky not to be in prison for 20 years), but his drug problems did haunt him.

"I thought DirecTV already had the exclusive rights for broadcasting the Extra Innings package" i think they got the NFL exclusive rights...not sure...someone does, i think.

comments seem to be showing up on permalink again.. the sidebar was extending a little too far to the right before, right now it's showing up fine on my browser though (safari) the design stuff we'll deal with in time, the left sidebar seems to big, none of the text extends as far as the boxes. Certainly could diminish the right sidebar as well, don't need my ugly mug up there and if it is, make it as small as possible. I'll have to ask about changing some of the color schemes. In time....

DirecTV has exclusive NFL rights, basketball, hockey and baseball and ESPN's college packages are available for all cable systems. I'm not sure how much MLB games will motivate people to switch though. MLB games don't have the "event" status that NFL games do, so i would think they'd want to reach the broadest audience. They'll get tons of money out of it though, i guess that's all that matters to them. I already have DirecTV so it's not an issue for me although I've never ponied up for the package because I'm never home during the games.

i already am on the fence about Selig's impact on the game, but letting EI go to 1 single vendor would really push me over to the "screw Selig" side. i like his new playoff system...i liked the FIRST expansion...i like the 3-tier NL/AL system... im not gonna list what i dont like cuz it'll push this post to 1000 words...

Here in Mexico, Sky TV has the exclusive EI and NFL Sunday Ticket packages... odd.

CHAD: I do not know how young you are, nor do I know if you have ever seen Ferguson Jenkins in his prime pitch in person. Let me tell you, in an era when he dueled frequently with Bob Gibson, neck and neck, with shittier teams than the Cardinals, he was something special for many years. The poor guy would pitch 9 or 10 innings and lose 2-1, or 1-0 numerous times (several against Gibson) en route to a 20-win season. Had he had better offense during the later parts of the seasons and he may have won 25 games-plus a couple times. He singlehandedly kept the Cubs in many games and has many CG's to show for it. Of course his stats will show big innings pitched - particularly by today's wimp standards. Again, by today's standards, he would smoke many of today's pitchers and eat innings to boot. If freaking Zito is worth $136MM, Fergie (NOT FerGY) would be worth $175MM in my opinion. Most of his effective years, including Cy Young, were with the Cubs. Considering this shitty-ass franchise had few dominating players since the mid-1960's, until now (compared to perrenial penant winners or "always-sniffing-at-it" teams), I believe Fergie Jenkins is CERTAINLY worthy of having his number retired as a Chicago Cub.

Wikipedia (via Carlos): "Despite a strong debut with the Cubs in 2004 and a strong start in 2005 which led to Dusty Baker deciding to make Pérez the everyday shortstop, Pérez’ offensive numbers slowly descended closer to his career numbers." I guess whoever posted that on Wikipedia forgot about Nomar's groin injury. I think that is what made Neifi the everyday SS.

you should have seen the wiki comments on neifi and dusty before they were edited for fairness/etc. in sept. last year they were just nasty.

I already dislike Selig, but moving the baseball package only to DirecTV would put me in the "RETIRE NOW" mindset. Man, moving to CT, the only way I was going to get the Cubs games was Extra Innings, and I am not going to get DirecTV, so I might be screwed.....UGH!!!

"I guess whoever posted that on Wikipedia forgot about Nomar’s groin injury. I think that is what made Neifi the everyday SS." Yeah, I noticed that. Someone with a Wiki account should edit that.

What E-Man said, ditto. Fergie posted six straight years of 20 wins for the Cubs and won a Cy Young, what more do you want? And who was the bozo that said Fergie didn't do most of his work with the Cubs. Huh? He won a Cy Young with one great season in Texas, and that's about it. He's a Cub, period. Maddux is like Sutter and Kiki Cuyler, two other HOF-ers who were great Cubs but spent a bit less than half their career here. Hard to reward that. IMO, a retired number should be reserved for a guy that made most of his contributions as a member of the Cubs.

you really cant dismiss fergie's drug problems...its a big reason we dont hear or see much of him around wrigley...he sure as hell isnt missing many ballcard shows to sign autos. i could care less about retired numbers, myself, but the Cubs have been stingy with the process historically.

Jenkins was a starter for nine full seasons as a Cub and averaged 18 wins per season. Today, if the Cubs had a pitcher who could stay healthy, make over 30 starts a year, be among the league leaders in innings pitched in most of those years and win 18 a year for a nine year career they'd not only retire his number they'd rename the Bud Light Bleachers after him. The Cubs' problem isn't bad publicity from a thirty year old drug bust - it's their own hundred years of mind-numbing futility.

Even if they are “worth�? those stats, it is not like the Cubs will be adding those stats. You have to take into account the players who they are replacing and their stats. For example: Cubs at 1B last year: 25 HR, 90 RBI and 81 runs Cubs at CF last year: 3 HR, 41 RBI and 88 runs So even if Soriano and Lee are worth those original stats, the Cubs only add 52 HR, 69 RBI and 31 runs. Definitely nice additions, but not as shock and awe as the original stats look. And that is another reason why I think the team hasn’t improved as much as most think.
Excellent points, Manny. Also, more realistically, Soriano and Lee will combine for 60-65 home runs, 180 RBI's and 180 runs scored. Using the numbers you gave that adds only 32-37 home runs, 49 RBI's and and 11 runs scored. Obviously the result in an increase in 32-37 home runs is going to result in more RBI's and runs scored than that. What are those numbers if we were to assume Soriano replaces Jones in RF?

E-Man, Fergie is a hall of famer and it's well deserved but I just don't feel that he achieved legendary status that warrants number retirements. For me, I'm not even sure I I feel that Billy Williams deserves retirement. Banks, Sandberg, Sosa.

"Soriano and Lee will combine for 60-65 home runs" says who? just because you think they'll BOTH underperform collectively? hell, even conservatives would give them 70 combined...hell, i'd earmark them for 75-80 if healthy, myself without really thinking im stretching. that still doesnt address the issue of a couple posts ago continuing into this one that your comparisons are based on entire careers, not current skill levels.

"...[re Fergie]and win 18 a year for a nine year career they’d not only retire his number they’d rename the Bud Light Bleachers after him." LOL! How true! CHAD: I certainly respect your opinion, but I couldn't disagree more. As I said, the Cubs do not have more than a couple players in their history that would meet your critreria. If Santo and Ernie are retired, Fergie is AT LEAST their equal for a CUB player, and arguably the best Cub pitcher ever (combining years served and track record). Since precedent is set by just these two (S & E), who were his teamates (and in fact Santo is not in the HOF), he deserves and would warrant the same accolades. Again, this is the CUBS not the Yankees.

Comparing Soriano’s ‘06 to his career numbers is a misuse of stats if you’re trying to gauge the improvement to the Cubs offense simply because it’s irrelevant; the Cubs didn’t have Soriano in 06, they had Pierre. Do you honestly believe Soriano isn’t an improvement over Pierre?
Of course Soriano is an improvement over Pierre, but probably not as much as people think and I don't think much of Pierre. Pierre was still a productive player and any reasonable expectation for Soriano is going to be based on either his career stats or his 3-year stats and neither of which are all that much of an improvement over Pierre. Now, if we're to believe he's going to hit like 2006 then it's a pretty solid improvement of about 4-5 wins. Worth 8 years and $136 million though? Until a player shows he's made adjustments over a long period, a season like Lee's 2005 has to be taken with a grain of salt. The Cubs would have us believe he was very injured last year when he came back, yet his overall numbers are very similar to his career stats, which tell me that his injury upon his 2nd return neither hampered his ability to hit and that he's not the player he was in 2005, which personally I think is obvious. Is it possible the Cubs were telling the truth and it's just an eery coincidence? Sure, but it's not likely. A healthy Lee based on logical expectations will result in about 2-3 more wins than the Cubs got out of 1st base in 2006. The additions of Soriano and a healthy Lee add about 6-8 wins to this team. Could they be worth more? Sure. There's a great deal of variance from one season to the next, but if we're going to take the best of what a player can give then we also have to do that with St. Louis, Houston, Milwaukee, Pittsburgh and every other team in baseball. All of a sudden those teams look pretty damn good as well. No. That's now how you do it. Not if you're wanting to come to a rational and logical conclusion about how this team is likely to play in 2007. It's certainly within the realm of possibility that the additions of Soriano and a healthy Lee provide the Cubs with an additional 12-15 wins if they have MVP caliber seasons. On the flip side, however, it's also quite possible for Soriano to revert to his 2004 and 2005 form while Derrek Lee shows signs of age as well as signs of struggling to hit for power because of the wrist injury leading to virtually no improvement over 2006. What does coloring the picture as beautiful as possible accomplish? Maybe every single player on the team has a career year and goes to the All-Star game. Then again, maybe every player on the team sucks and somehow Ronny Cedeno ends up being the best player on the team. Both scenarios have the same likelihood of happening so why pretend either are going to? The Cubs have only marginally improved at 2nd base. Cesar Izturis is probably not much of an upgrade over Cedeno and it sounds like Felix Pie is going to be taking over in CF. Those 3 positions are probably just a wash compared to what they were last season so offensively this team has improved, realistically, by 6-8 wins. On the pitching side, however sad it may be, Lilly and Marquis are both upgrades over what we had last year. Lilly more so than Marquis, but their combined effort in 2007 is likely to be worth less than 6 wins. Rich Hill has a good chance of putting up some pretty good numbers, but any reasonable expectations for this guy are going to be modest. The total improvement from the acquisitions Hendry has made is reasonably only 12-14 more wins. There's also Prior, Wood, and Miller to factor in, but any reasonable projection here is also going to be modest. Throughout the season many players will overachieve reasonable expectations and many will underachieve. There's no way of knowing who or by how much, but looking at the 2007 team like this is hell of a lot more accurate than assuming all these guys have career years and make the All-Star team. Hendry did indeed improve this team. He may have even improved it enough that they'll win the division due to how weak it is. But this is not a good baseball team. Not by any stretch of the imagination.

69 RBI + 31 R = 100 extra guys crossing the plate next year.
Not really. Manny said the team had improved by 52 home runs over last season's production at those positions if we're to use Chad's initial projections. These numbers don't match up, but anyway, you'd have to subtract the home runs from the total runs increased because if you don't you're counting a run scored and an RBI twice on a home run.

The old TCR site may not have been the snazziest site on the web, but at least it was reliable…
that's WordPress. It's not a blogging script that's capable of the large audience that TCR has. As long as they stick with WordPress, problems will continue. WordPress also eats computer resources from the server like its candy. Terrible script.

Sosa, Chad? Williams put up his numbers against a non-watered down NL- a time with such tough pitching that they ended up lowering the mound after '68. Sosa played during a period of steroid-fueled home run derby. His homers would look a lot more impressive if at the same time a warning-track power hitter like Luis Gonzalez wasn't hitting 57 himself. Not to mention the Brett Boones of the world. Embarrassing period for baseball. Oh yeah, then there's that whole crazy cork thing.

I agree with bjs above, Cubs look to me like they’ve improved this offseason back to .500 status or maybe a bit better if everything falls into place. Not great, but the NL is very weak right now, and our division particularly so. 85 wins might just be good enough for the postseason.
I agree with that. it's possible this team wins 85 or even 90 if, as you say, everything falls into place. It's just that doesn't often happen. Almost all teams are going to suffer unexpected injuries and be without a major contributor for an extended period of time. We have to factor that into any projection we'd give for this team.

"that’s WordPress. It’s not a blogging script that’s capable of the large audience that TCR has. As long as they stick with WordPress, problems will continue. WordPress also eats computer resources from the server like its candy. Terrible script." I agree. Completely.

Don't care. Only man ever to hit 60+ home runs 3 times. Not even the home run hitter of all time (Babe Ruth) can say the same.

"I didn’t say Santo. I said Banks, Sandberg, Sosa... I know. I am saying Santo. Because his number is retired and Fergie is just as, or more deserving. Especially, if one guy is in the HOF and the other is not.

“Soriano and Lee will combine for 60-65 home runs�? says who? just because you think they’ll BOTH underperform collectively?
That's projection is not with either of them underachieving. It's based on what they've done the last 3 years (2003, 2004, and 2005 for Lee since he wasn't healthy in 2006). Obviously I can't convince you that either aren't going to have a career season or be better than they've been the last 3 years. I hope you're right. This team needs that kind of production from them. I just think you're setting unreasonable expectations based on past performances in which you're weighting inaccurately (2005 for Lee and 2006 for Soriano). As I said, though, I hope you're right.

Lester - Read my next comment on the subject. I conceded Manny's point about double-counting runs and RBIs, but also made another point about the extra benefits of having an improved lineup. Your projection for an extra 12-14 wins is on the low-conservative side. In my opinion, if the team had been healthy last year you could have penciled in an extra 12-14 wins. Add that to the additions (Soriano, Lilly, DeRosa, Marquis) Hendry made this year, and I'd bump it up to an extra 20-25 wins. Maybe I'm on the high-optimistic side. Whatever.

The total improvement from the acquisitions Hendry has made is reasonably only 12-14 more wins. The problem with this kind of analysis is that the team is much more than a collection of individual statistics. The Cubs didn't just lose a guy who would hit around 300 with 30 HRs, they lost the leader of their team which made it much easier to pitch around other players. Not to mention the psycologocal impact of players simply thinking they've lost the ability to win. The pitching staff is much the same. Saying that Lilly and Marquis adds 6 wins doesn't reflect the fact that the 2006 Cubs pitching staff consisted of Zambrano and a bunch of rookies told to sink or swim. The simple consistancy of having more than one pitcher who can go out and throw 30 starts a year is a major improvement to the team, not to mention how strained the bullpen was last year by having to pitch multiple innings every single day. And that doesn't even count on the improvement from continued development of the young players who started to flurish at the end of last year, nor does it include the fact that the Cubs faced all of those 2006 struggles with a Manager who has demonstrated a consistant innability to get his team to perform in the face of even the smallest adversity and whose strategic inneptitude also cost the team a handful of games. Will the 2007 Cubs certainly win 80some games, certainly not. But the 2007 team is dramatically different from the 2006 team, both in the individuals associated with the team as well as the many things that can't so easily be put down on paper.

Didn't Babe Ruth cork his bat before it was illegal? There was very little that was honest about Babe Ruth....

Don’t care. Only man ever to hit 60+ home runs 3 times. No one else cares either. As mentioned above, such legendary HOF'ers like Luis Gonzales and Brett Boone were powerhouse sluggers when Sammy was hitting his cheap HR's. HR totals in the 90's will always be a joke. Comparing Sosa to Ruth in any baseball context is laughable.

Lee combined April and his last stint in Aug/Sept 333/390/590 7 HR in 110 PA's 15 K's His stint in the middle of the year when he came back too early 227/326/320 1 HR in 86 PA's 26 K's Seems like something was bugging him in the middle of the year, no? His career numbers are heavily weighed down by his park as well. I do doubt another 46 homer year, but I'd safely bet 35 if healthy. And I think Ramirez is ready to take off, just a feeling, no real hard evidence or anything, but I think the only thing left in his game is consistency. But ignore me, I'm optimist this time of year.

"There was very little that was honest about Babe Ruth..." Rob G Care to elaborate? Because I've certainly read about him drinking too much, eating too much, womanizing too much and not working out enough - but these aren't issues of honesty. Other than smiling and taking credit for the phony "Called Shot" when it was introduced by reporters, and minor criminal activity as a teen that landed him in the "youth home", I haven't heard much about the dishonesty of Ruth.

BJS, that is crap! Total crap. No one discounts 1968 for Gibson and McClain which coincided with raising the mound five inches.

"Soriano is going to be based on either his career stats or his 3-year stats and neither of which are all that much of an improvement over Pierre." how can i argue with that logic? ive said all i got to say between this post and the last post we ran around in circles with. i'll let that logic speak for itself. add 2/3rd of a year of dlee...add soriano over pierre...and the result is the same as 06...ooooooooooooookay. and that's before we even bring pitchers into the mix.

Corked bat is one, or trick bat as they called it. I can't recall the details of other stuff I heard so maybe I'm off, but i swear there's a bunch of stuff out there about how he'd do anything to gain an advantage and what not. None of it proven I'm sure, but neither are steroids in most cases. From everything I've read, I've always got the sense that he was as dishonest as they come when it came to the game. Who knows how much it helped him though if at all. The media obviously wasn't what it is today.

btw, what was written in the wikipedia entry before it was removed?

Ponson to Twins on minor league deal Pineiro to RSox for 1/4, speculating he may be there new closer.

"BJS, that is crap! Total crap. No one discounts 1968 for Gibson and McClain which coincided with raising the mound five inches." Huh? The height of the mound was set at 15" max in 1903. Some teams played with the heights below that depending on who was pitching for them that day - Dodger Stadium was famous for having a higher mound than the max but after '68 the MLB mound was lowered to 10". Gibson and McClain may have benefitted from the enlargement of the umpires' strikezone but it had nothing to do with the mound going up or down.

"btw, what was written in the wikipedia entry before it was removed?" i forget the full text i put, but this is roughly it... --- The Cub Reporter was an internet forum founded in Ohio in 1897 by Civil War veterans to discuss the length of Abraham Lincoln's beard. It has since become a baseball discussion group for the Cubs that includes the debate to retire the number of Neifi Perez.

funny crunch.. as for the mound thing, I thought they kind of standardized after 1968 and teams were doing what they wanted before that. With 15" being the recommended height but not really enforced.

Plus, something as easy as changing the color palette for TCR hasn’t been done. I swear, that could be done in twenty minutes.
Even less time than that. if you know the html colors you want to use, which they probably do, it would take about 15-20 seconds to get it done. From the Dashboard you'd just click on Presentation, then Themes, then Theme Editor, then CSS and change the colors you'd like to. I agree about WordPress. Terrible script. MT is better.

And don't get me started on WordPress plugins. the script in those is more worthless than the WordPress script.

"And don’t get me started on WordPress plugins." Then shut up already!

Lee combined April and his last stint in Aug/Sept 333/390/590 7 HR in 110 PA’s 15 K’s His stint in the middle of the year when he came back too early 227/326/320 1 HR in 86 PA’s 26 K’s Seems like something was bugging him in the middle of the year, no? His career numbers are heavily weighed down by his park as well. I do doubt another 46 homer year, but I’d safely bet 35 if healthy.
Rob, you're merely removing the sample of stats that seem out of place with the season he had in 2006. That's no different than trying to say he was feeling the effects of some injury in July '05 when he only hit .303 with a .381 OBP and then saying the rest of the season hit .340 with a .420 OBP. Something was clearly wrong with Lee in July of 2005. As for his career numbers being weighted down because of the pitcher's park he's played in, let's use OPS+. He's had seasons of 100, 95, 53, 122, 113, 131, 135, 114, 177, and 111 in 2006. As I said before, that's right in line with what he's done in his career.

add 2/3rd of a year of dlee…add soriano over pierre…and the result is the same as 06…ooooooooooooookay.
I've never said they weren't better. Just because you can't argue an opinion you have with logical thoughts don't start saying I said things I didn't. I said that they weren't significantly better than they were in 2006 and they're not. Certainly not for how much money has been spent and how so many Cubs fans have given Hendry yet another chance.

There's a big difference between hitting .303 or .340 and .333 or .227. Besides, it was obvious from watching him that he tried to come back too early.

Rob, you’re merely removing the sample of stats that seem out of place with the season he had in 2006.... Okay, if you say so. I'm pointing to an exact time, when he came back from an injury that he never got over and that he said he rushed back from, not some ambigous dip in his numbers related to some mystery injury that may or may not have happened just to fit my point. Lee's career OPS+ is 123 and it would be higher if you don't include 2006, so I don't see how 2006 even with the obvious reasons behind the dip is anywhere near his career numbers. This discussion won't end up anywhere anyway. I (along with many others) see a different Derrek Lee, a very different approach at the plate that has helped cover the holes in his swing and led him to reach his full potential, that of the 6'5 power hitting variety with good plate discpline and great plate coverage. Is another 2005 in the cards? Probably not, but i'll be pretty shocked if he's not well in the 900 OPS range with at least 35 bombs. I'll do as I did with Horatio on the Matsuzkaka episode, we'll see how he's doing in September. I say a 140 OPS+ if not higher.

http://www.mint400.net/archives/000741.html "So when did the mound get chopped? 1968 was the Year of the Pitcher, with the league ERA dropping to 2.98 and Denny Mclain winning a record 31 games. As a move to restore wanning interest in the game, the mound was lowered from 15" to its current height of 10" in 1969. This move was also coupled with an expansion year, where the league grew from 20 to 24 teams."

Lester -- I couldn't disagree with you more about the prospects for the 2007 Cubs. To say that the team as presently constituted is not an upgrade over the 2006 team simply ignores the facts. In essence, the Cubs have replaced Neifi with DLee. I think even you would admit that is a huge upgrade. Soriano is replacing Pierre. At least on offense, that is another huge upgrade. Izturis is replacing Cedeno/Neifi. On offense, this may be a wash, but it is an upgrade defensively. The starting pitching should also be an upgrade. Adding Lilly and Marquis gives the Cubs a better rotation than Z, Hill, and three days of anxiety. The bench is also better. DWard and Cliff Floyd (if the team signs him) is much better than John Mabry and half-a-year of Phil Nevin. But perhaps most importantly are the intangibles that Bleeding Blue talked about. A team is (or should be) more than just a sum of its parts. With DLee and Soriano added to the lineup, pitchers will be forced to pitch differently than they did when they were facing Neifi and Pierre. That will result in higher pitch counts for opposing pitchers. The Cubs will face the opposing bullpen more than they did in 2006 which should further improve the offense. If Piniella can change the mental toughness of the players, that will make the team even better. The 2006 Cubs folded every time there was even slightest amount of adversity. I know there are no stats for these intangibles, but they have a lot more do do with winning ball games than a guys OBP against lefties on Tuesdays on the road.

What would be so wrong with raising the mound back up to 15" again? Frankly, I'd like to see better pitching nowadays. How many starters even post a sub-3.50 ERA anymore? It's ridiculous. Watching Johan Santana mow down teams with an extra 5" of mound height? Priceless. Watching a healthy Kerry Wood enter the game late, all 6' 5" of him, and buzz a 98 mph fastball from a 15" mound? Now that's excitement. Hell, maybe even Jason Marquis would be somewhat effective.

Izturis is replacing Cedeno/Neifi. On offense, this may be a wash, but it is an upgrade defensively. Even at Izturis's lowly career averages it's an upgrade...sadly.

I couldn’t disagree with you more about the prospects for the 2007 Cubs. To say that the team as presently constituted is not an upgrade over the 2006 team simply ignores the facts.
I did NOT say that.

I know there are no stats for these intangibles, but they have a lot more do do with winning ball games than a guys OBP against lefties on Tuesdays on the road.
Yeah. And that's a stat I've referenced so many times, isn't it? I can remember exactly zero times I've used such an absurd stat, but clearly attacking the person who uses stats to back-up his argument makes you feel better. Who are you? Gary Hughes? All I'll say about these numerous intangibles is that if they're so valuable and so widespread, how come we can pretty much add up the sum of the parts as you refer to them (players I call them) and come remarkably close to projecting their win percentage based on the sum of their performances? It's either a coincidence or these nuances that you speak of aren't worth a damn. I'm going with the latter.

crunch: "add 2/3rd of a year of dlee…add soriano over pierre…and the result is the same as 06…ooooooooooooookay." Exactly who said the results will be the same?

whoever said "Considering all of this, it could be argued that the 2007 Cubs aren’t much better, if any, than the 2006 team."

Anybody watching the Notrah Dahm/LSU game? I'm really enjoying it so far. On a cub note, Szmardjfdkjfa looks like he's got a little bit of fire in him. Or he's just kind of a jerk. I'm probably down with it either way. Hopefully LSU's corners can shut him down this game which would severely hurt his draft stock since, speed-wise, that's the kind of corners he'd be facing in the NFL---errr, I mean, the National Football League.

Hey are we going to get Parachat back? You guys are my only friends and I miss hanging out in real-time. By the way the mystery of the USC cheerleader who flashed her ass has been solved, so we can all resume our lives. http://www.deadspin.com/

I agree. Bring it back, yo. It should always be there when there's a significant sporting event.

Lester -- You said: "Considering all of this, it could be argued that the 2007 Cubs aren’t much better, if any, than the 2006 team." You also said: "I said that they weren’t significantly better than they were in 2006 and they’re not." If you want to have a discussion, it would be a lot easier if you didn't claim you didn't say something when it is right there in black and white. I can only respond to what you write, not what you think or what you meant to say. The comment I made about a player's OBP against left handed pitchers on Tuesdays on the road was not meant to quote you and was not presented as such. It was simply meant to illustrate how only using stats to describe a baseball team or baseball game is inadequate. The intangibles, which you seem to ignore, are what make the game worth following.

All I’ll say about these numerous intangibles is that if they’re so valuable and so widespread, how come we can pretty much add up the sum of the parts as you refer to them (players I call them) and come remarkably close to projecting their win percentage based on the sum of their performances? Its really not that complicated, you are talking about using stats to show what happened, we are talking about intangables to explain why things happen the way they did. For example, Ryan Dempster was very effective as the Cubs closer in 2005 and for the first month of 2006. If you only look at the stats after the fact, you can look at Dempsters 2006 numbers and determine he had some degree of an impact on the expected win loss record. What it doesn't tell you is why his 2006 and 2005 were so different. Was it because luck suddenly escaped him in May 06 or was it because his team had collapsed and he was only pitching in save situations once every 3 weeks? You could do that with any player. Stats will tell you that ARam slumped significantly in the 1st half. They don't tell you if they slumped because he was being pitched around after DLee went down, or if it was because he couldn't handle the pressure of being the sole big bat in the lineup or if it was just all just a coincidence. Stats are great and they can tell you a lot of things, but I've yet to see the stat which can factor in the human element of any game.

Lou, I said that it "could" be argued they aren't much better, if any than in 2006. It can be argued in much the way people are arguing on here about how great the Cubs are. Ignore the bad and only pay attention to the good...argue it the other way and it's 2006 all over again. I said they weren't "significantly" better. That actually implies that I think they ARE better. But they aren't significantly better than last year. I suppose that depends on the definition here, but the Cubs are a .500 team right now. It would take a ton of good fortune for this team to finish above .500.

Exactly who said the results will be the same?
Nobody said the results would be the same, Manny. It's just easier for people to distort a few statements out of many that have illustrated where the Cubs have improved or the numerous times someone has said the Cubs have improved to make their point stronger. Generally speaking, these people lack the skills to articulate their own opinions so they attack the weakest part of one's statement to make themselves feel more adequate.

you also implied they arent improved...either way, you're still not using your stats in a smart manner where baseball is a vacuum independent of batting situations or your peers you have around. either way you think this is a very mediocre team, but insist on trying to use improperly applied math to make your point. if you think soriano sucks, say it...just dont try to mathematically prove that somehow soriano is a replacement play on par with pierre cuz you're applying it incorrectly. just cuz you have math to use doesnt make it intelligent by default...especially when you're applying it incorrectly and out of touch with a player's skills.

"Generally speaking, these people lack the skills to articulate their own opinions so they attack the weakest part of one’s statement to make themselves feel more adequate." you think this is about your use of the statement that you may or may not have said the 06 team is equal to the 07 team? its about your stats and your misuse of them...its about your assumptions you think are truths cuz you have been proven of it by your math. the problem is your false prophet has led you astray... you got a nice bunch of stats but your use and conclusions you're getting out them arent in touch with reality.

For example, Ryan Dempster was very effective as the Cubs closer in 2005 and for the first month of 2006. If you only look at the stats after the fact, you can look at Dempsters 2006 numbers and determine he had some degree of an impact on the expected win loss record. What it doesn’t tell you is why his 2006 and 2005 were so different. Was it because luck suddenly escaped him in May 06 or was it because his team had collapsed and he was only pitching in save situations once every 3 weeks?
I looked some numbers up for an argument similar to this on September 24th (left/right splits) and won't bother looking for the final numbers considering they're only missing one week, but take a look at these numbers. Dempster against lefties 2006: .303/.386/.434 03-05: .286/.405/.437 Dempster against righties 2006: .233/.306/.321 03-05: .251/.328/.357 As you can tell from those numbers, Dempster was better in 2006 than he'd been from 2003-2005. Is it just a coincidence these numbers are so close to his 3-year averages? Dempster struggled in 2006 because he's not a very good pitcher. He had 60 or so innings where he threw the ball exceptionally well for the Cubs. 60 innings is not much of a sample size. His 2005 and 2006 were so different because he overachieved in 2005. He met expectations in 2006. I'm all for hoping that every Cub player will set new benchmarks in various stats. I'd love to see it, but I know that what's much more likely is that for every player that does that, another one will set new career lows. Now, maybe the Cubs get lucky enough and they stack more players on the side of overachieving than underachieving (it sure seems like they're due, doesn't it?). I won't even try to say human elements don't exist and aren't a factor though my guess is I think they're much less important than you do. You may be right about it all, too. I simply don't know. I do know that what we can calculate and project for future success on this team, well, it just doesn't appear to be a team that's going to be too good. They won't be too bad either. I hope I'm wrong and I hope these non-statistical elements add up to a World Championship for this team. They're going to need that if it's going to happen.

Lester -- I'm not sure how to respond. You say that the Cubs are not significantly better than they were in 2006 and then you say that your statement means you think they are better. Your argument is getting too convoluted for me. Just to keep it simple, I think you are ignoring the facts by saying the Cubs are only a .500 ballclub. I think you are wrong when you say that the Cubs are only going to be 3-4 wins better with a healthy DLee all year. I also think you are confusing the use of stats to document the past with using stats to predict the future. You don't have to be a cock-eyed optimist to believe the Cubs ARE significantly better now than in 2006. You just have to objectively compare the team now with the 2006 team. Post # 265 details why I say that.

"Dempster struggled in 2006 because he’s not a very good pitcher." "His 2005 and 2006 were so different because he overachieved in 2005. He met expectations in 2006." okay, i am being very serious here...so dont think its a joke. but...is that really all you can say about it? do you have an relevant things to say about any player that doesnt involve comparing 1 math sample of your choice to another math sample of your choice? like maybe...WHY they're performing and how one goes about lacking/gaining specific skills and the things theyve shown they can do vs. improve/degress on? seriously, you're pushing your ego hard and playing victim to your critics. you're taking criticism as attacks...and you're only showing us Bill James Jr. with a LeapPad version of Learning To Use Stats with Scooter the Baseball and Friends.

Lester — I’m not sure how to respond. You say that the Cubs are not significantly better than they were in 2006 and then you say that your statement means you think they are better. Your argument is getting too convoluted for me.
Yes. Saying "not significantly better" is implying they are in fact better; just that they're not that much better than they were a year ago. I got a raise last week. It wasn't a significant raise, but a raise nonetheless. I say they're not significantly better than last year because they neither have improved their offense enough nor their pitching enough. They're likely to finish in the lower 50% of both. Both are better than they were in 2006, but it would be hard to not improve on those numbers. Then again, I do believe this team has improved 10-12 wins, which, in reality, is a considerable improvement. Is it a significant enough improvement to contend in the Central? Probably not. Isn't it possible to believe this team has improved without believing they've improved 25 wins over last year?

Isn’t it possible to believe this team has improved without believing they’ve improved 25 wins over last year? Well, we can all revisit this in nine months and see who was on target on the Swami predictions... I remember telling my brother how crazy he was to have picked the Cards winning the Division again and then the Series...

okay, i am being very serious here…so dont think its a joke. but…is that really all you can say about it? do you have an relevant things to say about any player that doesnt involve comparing 1 math sample of your choice to another math sample of your choice? like maybe…WHY they’re performing and how one goes about lacking/gaining specific skills and the things theyve shown they can do vs. improve/degress on?
I've used numerous math samples, crunch. What's the point to list all the ones that I possibly could to strengthen my argument when you aren't interested in even looking at them? Seriously. I'm asking an honest question. I'm assuming when I say that "Dempster isn't very good" that you've taken a look at his stats before and have watched the guy pitch. If you have, then you do know he's not very good and he's not going to be over a sample size that is worth much. I hope he's just as dominant as he was in 2005, but I understand that players have a wide variance in their stats from year to year, but that players are defined by their skills, which are limited and obviously apparent over large sample sizes. Baseball numbers are so goofy that Neifi can hit over .360 in a month. I assume you'd agree he's not a very good player and we needn't explain why he lacks the skills to be a good player (I'm assuming you already know this). I also assume we'd agree that we don't to spend time discussing what Neifi can do to improve his game. We have enough data to come to a solid conclusion about what he's capable of and what he's not capable of. If you want to know what I think Dempster can do to improve, well, I don't have the foggiest damn clue. I'm not a coach and I haven't played organized baseball in over 15 years. I also wasn't especially good when I did play if that has any value to this topic whatsoever. I don't have any idea what Dempster can do to improve other than the obvious answers we can come to by looking at his stats and the play by play data. The guy pitched 58.1 innings of relief last season and Cubs fans and Jim Hendry were ready to ignore 5+ years of data as if those 58 innings had much value at all. Les Lancaster once had a scoreless streak of around 30 innings. He wasn't a very good reliever either, but managed to put together one hell of a stretch. That's baseball. All you're doing is tyring to ignore about 1100 innings of work in favor of 58.1 innings. I'm sorry, but it just doesn't work that way. This is a guy whose career ERA is worse than Jason Marquis (career ERA+ of 94). Dempster's career ERA+ is 89. Glendon Rusch's is 88. I'm sure we can find a pretty dominant 58.1 inning stretch in Rusch's career if we looked hard enough.

On a cub note, Szmardjfdkjfa looks like he’s got a little bit of fire in him. He has diarrhea...

Congratulations on your raise, Lester. IF that's your real name. No, seriously, I think the cubs will 85+ games next year. I don't base that on anybody's newfangled numbers and ++++'s. I'm just looking at the cub roster and the rosters of the other teams. I might be wrong. I might be right. I'm just guessing anyway. And I agree with each and every one of you, too.

Crunch, I laughed out loud a lot at the last line of post #287. Man, you caught me off guard. Watching this debate over the projected increase in total wins from 2006 to 2007, it strikes me that we need to keep in mind that the Cubs essentially stopped trying to win for the last 45-60 games of the 2006 season -- or at least, winning was a secondary priority. So, the 66 win total isn't really a fair baseline -- it's not a representation of what this team would have achieved if it was trying to win games like most other teams were. Remember, Hendry said they essentially shut down the advance scouting system for the last 2 months of the season as they shifted their focus to the free agent market. Meanwhile, minor leaguers were given innings for purposes of developing and maturing, which was of course a wise move. So, the 66 wins is a deceiving number -- it doesn't represent the "real" win total of the team for comparison purposes. How many more games would the Cubs have won if they had been 100% focused on winning? Who knows. Three games? Five? Two? Seven? Whatever you think it is, I think you have to add that to the 66 win total when you make the comparison to 2007. Math is fun; go internets.

Also, don't forget about the veterans that were traded (Maddux, Walker, Nevin, Neifi!) -- those moves of course contributed to the somewhat artificial 66 win total, too.

far more importantly Dusty is gone....that's 40-50 wins right there, Neifi is another 15 wins, Bynum about 10. I've got us pegged for 120 easy....

Lester, 1. It is pretty obvious that you haven't watched much baseball if you can't tell the difference between Dempster in '03 and '05. Usually when pitchers get Tommy John surgery, they weren't feeling too good leading up to it. Also, starting and relieving are two different occupations. Accusing Rob G. of cherry picking stats on Lee was priceless. Why do you think Lee went back on the DL, he was out of frequent flyer miles? 2. You said that a 12 win improvement for the Cubs would not be a significant improvement. If you came home from work last Friday and told your wife you got a 18% salary raise, do you think she would look at you and shrug? If you want to use WARPs to decide how good the team is going to be, tell me which you disagree with. Hill +3 Lee +5 Soriano +4 Lilly +3 Murton +1 Marquis +2 DeRosa +2 That doesn't look like 10-12 to me, (as well as possible improvement from SS, 5th starter, bullpen, 3rd). Sure, they're going to have injuries, but there will also be a couple of players who have better than expected years, and if others tank there is more depth to replace them. You're pretty much the only person, anywhere, who doesn't think the Cubs will be a .500 team next year. I guess it's lonely at the top.

Well I went to BP and made this chart: Lee, Hill and Marquis I used estimated 07 WARPs, for the others I used their actuals from 06. Lilly 5.5 Maddux 3.3 Marshall 1.4 Rusch 0.2 Lee 10 Nevin 1.4 Mabry 0.1 Lee 1.9 DeRosa 4.1 Walker 1.8 Perez 0.1 Marquis 3 Guzman 0.1 Mateo 0.3 Marmol 1.1 Soriano 8.6 Pierre 3.8 Hill 7 Hill 2.7 Prior -0.3 Wood 0.5 38.2 13.1 1.6 0.5 Total 27.2 Probably going to look like hell, but not including imrpovement from Murton it comes to an extra 27 wins. That would make the 07 Cubs a 93 win team, for those of you keeping score at home.

Lester:
Then again, I do believe this team has improved 10-12 wins, which, in reality, is a considerable improvement. Is it a significant enough improvement to contend in the Central? Probably not.
I honestly believe if the same '06 team hit the field again this year in '07, they'd improve 10-12 wins. '06 was freeking crazy.

When did "considerable" stop meaning "significant" ? They used to be synonyms.

Since I am a cheap bastard, can someone post the names and times of people who are supposed to be at the Cubs Convention this year? I heard it was in the new VineLine. Maybe we should start a thread of who's all going? I'm staying at the Hilton so I'll be there.

Well this is what I've found so far, let me know if I'm missing anybody: Ernie Banks Michael Barrett Glen Beckert Mike Bielicki Larry Biittner Bob Brenly Jose Cardenal Neil Cotts Doug Dascenzo Jody Davis Ivan Dejesus Ryan Dempster Bob Dernier Mark DeRosa Scott Eyre Carmen Fanzone Doug Glanville Richie Hebner Glenallen Hill Rich Hill Bobby Howry Randy Hundley Fergie Jenkins Les Lancaster Derrek Lee Ted Lilly Sean Marshall Mickey Morandini Matt Murton Rich Nye Will Ohman Gene Oliver Dave Otto Andy Pafko Milt Pappas Eric Patterson Gerald Perry Lou Piniella Mike Quade Rick Reuschel Larry Rothschild Ryne Sandberg Ron Santo Matt Sinatro Alfonso Soriano Tim Stoddard Lester Strode Rick Sutcliffe Ryan Theriot Alan Trammell Steve Trout Donnie Veal Jerome Walton Billy Williams Kerry Wood Michael Wuertz Carlos Zambrano

Loretta to Astros for $2.5 m Unit has agreed "in principle" to a 2008 extension with the D'Backs according to Newsday Dave Veres signed a minor league deal with the Rockies Mulder deciding between Indians, Rangers and Cards.

More server troubles today or are we just feeling unusually quiet?

seems to be working fine, other than the genormous pic on the front page on the new post that I can't get rid of...

this site needs more flamingskull.gif and scrolling marquees. also a slew of useless webpolls... Q: Should the cubs retire Neifi Perez's number? [] - Yes [] - No [] - Abraham Lincoln

new post up... I think. It's acting weird in all my browsers.

rut-roh bug... []

that [] that will end/erase the permalink comments (or open a new instruction that messes with comments)

well, now its hashed out...that was weird i tested it on another post, too. the backend server that keeps the database of this stuff must be interesting.

I don't get it...using the brackets caused what to happen? I'm getting everything still on this post.....

ROB G.: Nothing but server problems since last night/early a.m., again. What is up with this site? Its really discouraging. Please forgive me if this was posted, since I have been trying as I said, since 7am: Saw an SI article stating Cubs were #1 in improving team - 20 win projected improvement.

in the permalink part of the blog...when i did the []yes etc etc stuff...when it returned, the entire comments section was gone. i refreshed...same...left and came back...same... tried it on another post, same issue. but then it "corrected" itself...whether it was database/formatting lag or because you were updating the content...i dunno. im just self-programmed to try to debug everything i see and thought i saw something.

Oh - re: Dempster and the discussion above, at Cubs.com today (Mailbag) Muskrat addressed this exact issue. She stated that Demp in '05 was more "streched out" cause he started in the rotation first - then switched. Secondly, he was last in the MLB with 1-2-3 innings! Surprise, surprise!

hell, it does it without the brackets…seems to be a problem reforming the comments section in permalink in realtime. there’s some lag rebuilding it.

the dumpster's gonna put people on base... he just needs to put in less 15-20+ pitch innings and keep the ball from going into the OF or over the wall too much. i really dont think you can rely on a guy like that to close, but whatever...they seem to want it to happen. he's gonna be stressed at least a few times..he's an easy target to put in a lotta pitches for both his walks and Ks.

are other people having problems accessing the site? It seems to be reloading fine for me, just not updating well. I believe the posts and permalink comments are on one engine and the popup comments on another if I recall the explanation properly. If anyone else is having problems let me know, the admin guy seems to be easy to work with.

yeah...the lag problem isnt highly annoying and is only showing up for me on the permalink. it is taking a minute-ish+ to update and catch up to the comment, though...at least when i did it a few times.

when the permalink goes to show the comment, it refreshes itself with the comment # behind the URL of the post...im guessing its showing up blank cuz its not part of the rehashed main page and cant show the #'d post yet.

"New hitting coach Gerald Perry begins working with hitters and explaining the concepts of patience and waiting for your pitch. Team looks on with bewilderment." Players can't seem to understand why a spitball-throwing pitcher was hired on as their hitting coach. Players mumble that they know T.V.'s weren't what they are today, but swore that he was caucasian. Alfonso Soriano says that it he looked white because of the amount of Vaseline applied before games. Kerry Wood takes offense to this, and grabs Soriano's iPod and earphones, and proceeds to bash them to pieces with one of the mini-wooden baseball bats sold at the souvenier stand. Piniella heard weeping in his office.

Very well done, though I can't believe you left out Barrett's 20-game suspension for Round 2 of the A.J. fight.

[...] 2007 Year in ReviewThis is about the time of year everyone starts putting up their looks back at the year that was 2006. But hey, what’s the fun in rehashing the misery that was last year when we can take a peek into next year? So here are tomorrow’s headlines today: ??January 3rd: Cubs sign Cliff Floyd&#82… [...]

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Recent comments

  • Arizona Phil (view)

    LHP Blake Weiman appears to have been the last cut from the AAA Iowa roster. He is with the Tennessee group at Minor League Camp.

     

  • crunch (view)

    bruce bochy is hobbling rather badly for a guy who's had 2 hip replacements.  his gait is extremely wonky taking the lineup card to the ump.

  • crunch (view)

    yeah, for me this isn't about who's better at 3rd.  it's madrigal, period.  for me it's about who's not hitting in the lineup because madrigal is in the lineup.

    occasional play at 3rd for madrigal, okay.  going with the steele/ground-ball matchup...meh, but okay, whatever.

    seeing madrigal get significant starting time...no thanks.

  • Dolorous Jon Lester (view)

    Yeah I am very disappointed Madrigal is starting. He has no business as a starter. He is AAA insurance, a back up at best. Sure his defense looks fine because he plays far enough in that his noodle arm isn’t totally exposed. It comes at the cost of 3B range.

    He’s garbage, and a team serious about winning would NOT have him starting opening day.

  • crunch (view)

    in other news, it took 3 PA before a.rizzo got his 1st HBP of the season.

  • Eric S (view)

    With two home runs (so far) and 5 rbi today … clearly Nick Martini is the straw that stirs the Reds drink 😳

  • crunch (view)

    madrigal at 3rd...morel at DH.

    making room for madrigal or/and masterboney to get a significant amount of ABs is a misuse of the roster.  if it needed to get taken care of this offseason, they had tons of time to figure that out.

    morel played almost exclusively at 3rd in winter ball and they had him almost exclusively there all spring when he wasn't DH'ing.

    madrigal doing a good job with the glove for a bit over 2 chances per game...is that worth more than what he brings with the bat 4-5 PA a game?  it's 2024 and we got glenn beckert 2.0 manning 3rd base.

    this is a tauchman or cooper DH situation based on bat, alone.  cooper is 3/7 with a double off eovaldi if you want to play the most successful matchup.

    anyway, i hope this is a temporary thing, not business as usual for the rest of the season.  it will be telling if morel is not used at 3rd when an extreme fly ball pitcher like imanaga is on the mound.

  • Arizona Phil (view)

    There are two clear "logjams" in the Cubs minor league pipeline at the present time, namely AA outfielders (K. Alcantara, C. Franklin, Roederer, Pagan, Pinango, Beesley, and Nwogu) and Hi-A infielders (J. Rojas, P. Ramirez, Howard, R. Morel, Pertuz, R. Garcia, and Spence, although Morel has been getting a lot of reps in the outfield in addition to infield). So it is possible that you might see a trade involving one of the extra outfielders at AA and/or one of the extra infielders at Hi-A in the next few days. 

  • Arizona Phil (view)

    18-year old SS Jefferson Rojas almost made the AA Tennessee Opening Day roster, and he is a legit shortstop, so I would expect him to be an MLB Top 100 prospect by mid-season. 

  • Arizona Phil (view)

    Among the relievers in the system, I expect RHRP Hunter Bigge at AAA Iowa and RHRP Ty Johnson at South Bend to have breakout seasons on 2024, and among the starters I see LHP Drew Gray and RHP Will Sanders at South Bend and RHP Naz Mule at ACL Cubs as the guys who will make the biggest splash. Also, Jaxon Wiggins is throwing bullpen sides, so once he is ready for game action he could be making an impact at Myrtle Beach by June.