Recent comments

crunch 13 years 2 months ago (view)

in a world where carl crawford gets one of the worst contracts handed out in baseball, pujols is gonna want a lot more loot than what STL offered. his starting price is probably 25m...whether someone is talking 8 years or 10 years.

Rob G. 13 years 2 months ago (view)

think navigator got blockquote and italic happy there

Paul Noce 13 years 2 months ago (view)

What happened in Toronto last year though? Did the hitting coach force everyone to start pulling the ball or give everyone gift certificates to Balco? The entire team put up career hr numbers.

Paul Noce 13 years 2 months ago (view)

Pujols has had a few health problems lately. The main one has been a recurring elbow problem. I don't remember if he finally had offseason surgery on that in the last year or two or not.

VirginiaPhil 13 years 2 months ago (view)

Something fishy about this story. While it's possible Piniella was at RFK when Soriano collected those extra-base hits, Dusty Baker was in the dugout for the Cubs. Piniella may have put in a good word for Soriano before the Cubs went after him, but I'm not going to blame him for the other guys mentioned here, since the Cubs didn't pursue them. Piniella had nothing to do with Fukudome, for sure, and probably little to do with Bradley. The common thread here might be Gary Hughes (in addition to Hendry).

crunch 13 years 2 months ago (view)

he can't play 2nd, 3rd, or LF, either. FREE BOBBY SCALES!

navigator 13 years 2 months ago (view)

I'll believe the Cubs are interested in Pujols when the Cubs brass starts leaking stories about how they're not interested. Anyone remember this story,

Cubs | Soriano likely not in team's plans Wed, 22 Mar 2006 00:10:58 -0800 The Chicago Tribune's Dave Van Dyck reports the Chicago Cubs are likely not interested in Washington Nationals 2B Alfonso Soriano if he is traded by the club, due to his $10 million salary and what it would do to the team's payroll.

Not to mention what it would do to the Cubs outfield. But then one day in July, the Nationals played the Cubs and Soriano had four extra base hits right in front of Lou himself which changed everything. So that fall we had this story

Cubs | Piniella pursuing four free agents while conceding one may exit Thu, 09 Nov 2006 23:07:32 -0800 The Chicago Tribune reports Chicago Cubs manager Lou Piniella is targeting free-agent OF Alfonso Soriano (Nationals), OF Gary Matthews Jr. (Rangers), SP Barry Zito (Athletics) and SP Jason Schmidt (Giants) on his top four list of free agents. Piniella also conceded OF Juan Pierre may not be in the team's plans and may be already gone to another team once the free-agent signing period commences.

From this episode I learned three things. (1) All those stories we're reading about Hendry being constrained by a tight budget, are probably planted by Hendry. We've seen it before. They're a cry for help. (2) It wasn't all Hendry and the Cubs Lamebraintrust. Lou gets a major chunk of the blame for wanting Soriano in the first place (3) The Cubs are truly lucky Piniella didn't get the other three on his list. Dodged a bullet there.

Stevens 13 years 2 months ago (view)

You're the one getting excited over paying a guy $30 million a year for 5 WARP in production You are not this foolish. Those 10 years, in terms of WAR are not going to start at 4.5 or even 5. They're going to start at 8 and run that way for a few years go down to 6 and go down to 4 at the end. Those early years you'll be paying $30 mil and getting $40 mil in value. At the end of the deal, you'll be paying $30 mil and getting $20 mil in value. The last part hurts some, but again, that's the price you pay for a player of Pujols caliber. I'm done with this conversation now. Last word is yours.

crunch 13 years 2 months ago (view)

he shaped up pretty fast in A ball once the fines for dogging it came rolling in. luckily for him and the cards he started to take his profession and weight seriously pretty quickly in a matter of months, not years. he always performed, but he didn't find his wits for self discipline until lawless go ahold of him.

The Real Neal 13 years 2 months ago (view)

Sure there are. Boras and other bright bulbs have been using value approximation tools for years. Boras probably talks more about soft value than hard value. My statement, regardless is 100% correct. Right. Pujols = Pagan. And because a player averages 4.8 WAR/yr over 10 yrs, that means that's exactly what he'll put up each year. You're the one getting excited over paying a guy $30 million a year for 5 WARP in production. I am just illustrating to you how much that production is. If you're paying Pujols $30 million dollars a year, you're looking for an 8 WAR player, not a 5 one, which is why Cameron's valuation model is ridiculous. The teams that project the players most optimistically are the ones who sign them to the contracts.

Stevens 13 years 2 months ago (view)

There's no GM, agent or player in baseball that works with that value. Sure there are. Boras and other bright bulbs have been using value approximation tools for years. So have bright GMs. Now they all have WAR as another tool in their arsenal to make their case in negotiations. He doesn't project to be amazing - he projects to good a 4.8 WARP per year for the length of the deal. Would you pay Daric Barton $30 million a year? Angel Pagan is a $25 million player now? Right. Pujols = Pagan. And because a player averages 4.8 WAR/yr over 10 yrs, that means that's exactly what he'll put up each year.

The Real Neal 13 years 2 months ago (view)

"Mr. Pujols is expected to produce about 48 WAR over the next 10 years, and estimating future salary inflation at 5% a year, those wins would be worth $286 million." First of all, he wrote it for Fangraphs, and it was picked up by WSJ Online. Secondly, the way that he calculates value is... well let me explain it. He takes what free agent players made last year, and adds it all up. Then he takes how much WAR those players earned this year, and divides the dollars by the WAR. The conclusion is "It took this much dollars in free agency to get this much WAR", but it's a worthless value. There's no GM, agent or player in baseball that works with that value. It doesn't represent any real life contract or real life payrolls. FA contracts are awarded on expected value - you can't divide an expected value by a "real value" and come up with a meaningful number. But the point about the six year versus 11 years is it's just arbitrary. He's a very good player who is very old to hit FA for the first time - he's not a better FA than Arod, Maddux or Bonds were when they first hit free agency. He doesn't project to be amazing - he projects to good a 4.8 WARP per year for the length of the deal. Would you pay Daric Barton $30 million a year? Angel Pagan is a $25 million player now?

Stevens 13 years 2 months ago (view)

You're not getting it. In baseball you're eligible to be a free agent after 6 years. If you sign a five year extension, then you have to play five more years before you're a free agent. But guess, what? You're five years older. Bonds had 82.9 in WAR after 11 years. I think I get it fine, thanks. Bonds is interesting. Bonds hit the open market in baseball one meaningful time, when he signed w/ San Fran & left Pitt. He had nearly 50 WAR then, which is a heck of a track record. If we knew about WAR & projections back then, someone may have been able to project his amazing career, and he probably would have been worth whatever he could get from San Fran. Dave Cameron's WAR FA valuation doesn't really make an effort to match contract dollars by the way. So he's what, joking, when he types this for WSJOnline? "Mr. Pujols is expected to produce about 48 WAR over the next 10 years, and estimating future salary inflation at 5% a year, those wins would be worth $286 million." It's a much better idea to give a 10 year contract to a 27 or a 28 year old, based on what they did the previous three season, than a 31 year old based on what he did 7, 8 and 9 seasons ago. Well, of course it is, but it's a much better idea to give gobs of money to Albert Pujols when he's been consistently amazing and projects to be amazing than it is to give any money to anyone else.

Ryno 13 years 2 months ago (view)

Rob G's comment wasn't sarcasm?

Ryno 13 years 2 months ago (view)

I know, right... I mean he has no reason to juice.

The Real Neal 13 years 2 months ago (view)

...and probably players, and maybe some jealous reporters.

The Real Neal 13 years 2 months ago (view)

You're not getting it. In baseball you're eligible to be a free agent after 6 years. If you sign a five year extension, then you have to play five more years before you're a free agent. But guess, what? You're five years older. Bonds had 82.9 in WAR after 11 years. Dave Cameron's WAR FA valuation doesn't really make an effort to match contract dollars by the way. It's a relatively arbitrary number that has no real life application. It's a much better idea to give a 10 year contract to a 27 or a 28 year old, based on what they did the previous three season, than a 31 year old based on what he did 7, 8 and 9 seasons ago.

Stevens 13 years 2 months ago (view)

Bonds and Maddux are fine players to be sure, and wonderful company for a talent like Pujols, but I'm not sure either of them (or anyone else) ever reached the open market having achieved over 80 WAR and projecting for 48 WAR more over the next 10 years. http://online.wsj.com/article/SB100014240527487046571045761424524632342…

The Real Neal 13 years 2 months ago (view)

Pujols has never been on a baseball team where he wasn't the best player. http://miscbaseball.wordpress.com/2009/06/14/albert-pujols-in-high-scho…

Rob G. 13 years 2 months ago (view)

Haters. The only HGH/juicing rumors about Pujols are the ones invented by jealous fans.