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Historical Ex-Cub Factor
Historical Ex-Cub Factor Data
Thanks to the hard work of Carl Condon, I now have a list of ex-Cubs for all post-season series going back to 1903. This data is still preliminary, since neither of us has been able to verify exactly who was on the official post-season rosters for every season. The data from the most recent years is verified, but before about 1993, we are going solely on who appeared in the World Series rather than who was on the roster.
2001 saw only the second instance of a team overcoming The Factor as the Diamondbacks, 4 ex-Cubs deep, won the Series in dramatic fashion. Here's the count for the rest of the '01 playoff teams:
Arizona Diamondbacks (4): Miguel Batista, Luis Gonzalez, Mark Grace, Mike Morgan
Atlanta Braves (3): Dave Martinez, Greg Maddux, Rey Sanchez
Houston Astros (3): Orlando Merced, Scott Servais, Jose Vizcaino
Oakland Athletics (1): Mark Guthrie
St. Louis Cardinals (1): Miguel Cairo
Seattle Mariners (1): Jaime Moyer
Cleveland Indians (0)
New York Yankees (0)
RESULT: DIAMONDBACKS (4) DEF. YANKEES (0) -- THE FACTOR IS DEFEATED
In 2000, almost everyone hit the post-season safely below the threshhold:
New York Mets (3): Matt Franco, Todd Pratt, Turk Wendell
New York Yankees (2): Glenallen Hill, Jose Vizcaino
Atlanta Braves (2): Terry Mulholland, Greg Maddux
St. Louis Cardinals (1): Shawon Dunston
Oakland Athletics (1): Doug Jones
Seattle Mariners (1): Jamie Moyer
San Francisco Giants (0)
Chicago White Sox (0)
RESULT: YANKEES (2) DEF. METS (3) -- THE FACTOR HOLDS
1999 marked the second time the Braves were tripped up by The Factor:
Atlanta Braves (3): Jose Hernandez, Terry Mulholland, Greg Maddux
New York Mets (3):Shawon Dunston, Todd Pratt, Turk Wendell
Texas Rangers (3): Mike Morgan, Rafael Palmeiro, Todd Zeile
Arizona Diamondbacks (2): Dan Plesac, Luis Gonzalez
Boston Red Sox (1): Rod Beck
Cleveland Indians (1): Paul Assenmacher
Houston Astros (1): Matt Mieske
New York Yankees (1): Joe Girardi
RESULT: YANKEES (1) DEF. BRAVES (3) -- THE FACTOR HOLDS
1998's playoff teams were pretty much ex-Cub-free:
Cleveland Indians (2): Paul Assenmacher, Doug Jones
Boston Red Sox (1): Dennis Eckersley
Atlanta Braves (1): Greg Maddux
Houston Astros (1): Dave Clark
New Yok Yankees (1): Joe Girardi
San Diego Padres (1): Randy Myers
Texas Rangers (1): Todd Zeile
Ironically, the only team with a critical mass of ex-Cubs on their playoff roster in '98 was the Cubs themselves:
Chicago Cubs (3): Glenallen Hill, Mike Morgan, Terry Mulholland
As you may remember, they didn't make it to the World Series.
RESULT: YANKEES (1) DEF. PADRES (1) -- NO FACTOR
The 1997 playoff teams ended up with the following ex-Cubs on their roster:
San Francisco Giants (4): Jose Vizcaino, Glenallen Hill, Damon Berryhill, Terry Mulholland
Baltimore Orioles (3): Jerome Walton, Rafael Palmeiro, Randy Myers
Seattle Mariners (3): Jamie Moyer, Heathcliff Slocumb, Rick Wilkins
New York Yankees (2): Joe Girardi, Rey Sanchez
Atlanta Braves (1): Greg Maddux
Cleveland Indians (1): Paul Assenmacher
Houston Astros (1): Luis Gonzalez
Florida Marlins (1): Alex Arias
Three of the six divisions were won by teams with critical masses of ex-Cubs. Before the playoffs, I wrote that chances were the Orioles and Mariners will drop Jerome Walton and Rick Wilkins, respectively, to drop below the 3-man threshold, which they did. The Giants, however, found themselves with way too many ex-Cubs. Even if they had made it to the World Series, there was no way they could have won.
It looked like the Altanta Braves learned their lesson from the previous season (see below); with Dwight Smith gone and Mike Bielecki on the shelf with shoulder surgery, they were well below the ex-Cub threshold. None of the other playoff teams had anything to worry about.
RESULT: MARLINS (1) DEF. INDIANS (1) -- NO FACTOR
Remember 1996? Here are that year's playoff teams, with their ex-Cub contingent:
Baltimore Orioles (4): Randy Myers, Rafael Palmeiro, Mark Parent, Todd Zeile
Atlanta Braves (3): Mike Bielecki, Greg Maddux, Dwight Smith
St. Louis Cardinals (2): Dennis Eckersley, Danny Jackson
Cleveland Indians (2): Paul Assenmacher, Jose Vizcaino
New York Yankees (1): Joe Girardi
San Diego Padres (0)
Los Angeles Dodgers (0)
Texas Rangers (0)
Before the playoffs, I wrote the following: "So perhaps we have found the weak link in the Braves' armor -- 3 ex-Cubs is too many, even if one of them is Greg Maddux. Similarly, the Orioles' late-season acquisitions of Mark Parent and Todd Zeile may have in fact been a deadly mistake. The Cardinals, on the other hand, were wise to leave Mike Morgan off the post-season roster."
Well, whaddyaknow? The curse of the ex-Cubs strikes again. The Braves blow a 2-0 lead in the World Series and end up losing to the Yankees.
RESULT: YANKEES (1) DEF. BRAVES (4) -- THE FACTOR HOLDS
1995
Atlanta Braves (2): Greg Maddux, Dwight Smith
Cincinnati Reds (2) Chuck McElroy, Jerome Walton
Colorado Rockies (1): Joe Girardi
Cleveland Indians (1): Paul Assenmacher
Seattle Mariners (1): Doug Strange
Boston Red Sox (0)
Los Angeles Dodgers (0)
New York Yankees (0)
RESULT: BRAVES (2) DEF. INDIANS (1) -- NO FACTOR
1994: No playoffs
1993
Atlanta Braves (3): Damon Berryhill, Jay Howell, Greg Maddux
Philadelphia Phillies (2): Danny Jackson, Mitch Williams
Chicago White Sox (1): George Bell
Toronto Blue Jays (1): Joe Carter
RESULT: BLUE JAYS (1) DEF. PHILLIES (2) -- NO FACTOR
1992
Pittsburgh Pirates (3): Danny Jackson, Lloyd McClendon, Gary Varsho
Toronto Blue Jays (2): Joe Carter, Pat Tabler
Atlanta Braves (1): Damon Berryhill
Oakland Athletics (1): Dennis Eckersley
RESULT: BLUE JAYS (2) DEF. BRAVES (1) -- NO FACTOR
1991: The first World Series since 1963 to feature no ex-Cubs
Pittsburgh Pirates (4): Bill Landrum, Lloyd McClendon, Gary Varsho, Curtis Wilkerson
Toronto Blue Jays (2): Joe Carter, Pat Tabler
Atlanta Braves (0)
Minnesota Twins (0)
RESULT: TWINS (0) DEF. BRAVES (0) -- NO FACTOR
1990
Oakland Athletics (3): Dennis Eckersley, Ron Hassey, Scott Sanderson
Pittsburgh Pirates (2): Bill Landrum, Carmelo Martinez
Boston Red Sox (1): Dennis Lamp
Cincinnati Reds (1): Billy Hatcher
RESULT: REDS (1) DEF. ATHLETICS (3) -- THE FACTOR HOLDS
Back to the Ex-Cub Factor
Recent comments
Bill (view)
I hope that Perlaza goes on to have a successful career. On most Cubs teams prior to the current administration, he would have been one of their more highly ranked prospects. As far as the others are concerned, one or more may well go on to be much better than expected, but unfortunately there is no way to tell which one at the present time. You can't keep everyone.
crunch (view)
s.gray signs with the cards...3/75m
Arizona Phil (view)
Another one of the nine Cubs post-2023 Rule 9 minor league 6YFA has signed, as RHP Carlos Guzman (acquired from the Tigers for Zack McKinstry at the end of Spring Training) signed a 2024 minor league contract with the Mets.
So RHRP Yovanny Cruz (SD), C-INF P. J. Higgins (CIN), and now Carlos Guzman (NYM) have already signed 2024 minor league contracts with new MLB organizations, and OF Yonathan Perlaza is headed for Korea (Hanhwa Eagles).
crunch (view)
...and back to 3rd for another game. at this point i'm gonna hang back and when/if he actually plays 1st then i'll find it notable. i am glad he's playing a good amount of 3rd, though...give the club one more good look at him there. shrug
crunch (view)
morel played SS last night (no errors)...hit a homer and a double. he's got 2 of both in 19PA.
crunch (view)
e.escobar was throwing 95-97mph on his fastball in 2023.
Arizona Phil (view)
One more thing about Edwin Escobar. Even though he had accrued less than one year of MLB Service Time prior to signing with Nippon Ham in 2017 (he ended up eventually with Yokohama), he will have Article XIX-A rights by virtue of the seven seasons he spent in Japan. So he will be essentially locked on the 40-man roster (or at least he can't be outrighted without his consent), and he will be a FA whenever his contract expires.
Arizona Phil (view)
Also, Pirates were supposedly in on Escobar, too, so if the Cubs sign him to a minor league contract there is a very good chance that the Pirates will select him in the Rule 5 Draft. So even though it means he would take up a slot on the 40, it better be a major league contract if the Cubs don't want to lose him right after signing him!
Arizona Phil (view)
Ronald Acuna's cousin.
Cubster (view)
Cubs bring in 33-year-old lefty reliever Edwin Escobar who has been in Japan since 2016 and has decent stats in Japan. Certainly, they lacked lefty bullpen options last year.