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Cubs Pitching
Offseason Update: Shota Imanaga
1/11/24: The Cubs finalized their deal with Imanaga, settling on four years and an option for the fifth with some additional complexities. Today, they also traded Zyhir Hope and Jackson Ferris for DH/Corner IF Michael Busch and RP Yency Almonte. Busch looks to be competing with Morel, Mervis, and Wisdom for playing time, assuming none of them get traded before Spring Training. Catcher Brian Serven has been DFA'd to make room on the 40-man.
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Do the Cardinals Really Know How to Draft Pitchers Better?
by CubsfaninCA
Much has been made over the Cardinals “voodoo” that suddenly takes no-name pitchers and makes them stars. They seem to do the same with some hitters on occasion, but it’s mostly the pitchers that seem to come out of nowhere.
I wondered if it’s luck or voodoo, or do they really just know how to draft and/or develop pitchers better than other teams. So I went through the last 10 drafts and pulled out the pitchers drafted by 4 teams—the Cards, our Cubs, the Braves (who also seem to have an abundance of young pitching) and the Phillies (who lately as an organization don’t seem to be doing anything well). I listed the pitchers who got to the majors and to eliminate the cup of coffee guys, used 20 Ks as a minimum threshold.
There were a few interesting anomalies: the Cards drafted Michael Stutes but he didn’t sign and later signed with the Phillies, the Cubs originally signed Sonny Gray but he also didn’t sign, and it was fun seeing our own Brian Schlitter’s name in another team’s column.
Cubs 2007 Pitch Tracking: Pictures Worth a Thousand Curves
One of the latest and most exciting developments in baseball research is the measurement and analysis of individual pitches. For instance, the Pitch f/x system created by the company Sportvision tracks the in-flight movement of pitches from two different cameras, thereby assessing a pitch's velocity, horizontal and vertical movement. A bit less than 1/4th of all pitches from last year were so assessed, and MLB has made the raw contents of that data available at this location. Better yet, there are several bloggers who, unlike me, have the talent and dedication to transform that heaping mess of data into meaningful findings. Most notable, Josh Kalk has been developing player cards, a la what's available at baseball-reference or fan graphs or baseball cube, except with graphs incorporating this incredible new source of information on pitch selection and pitch behavior. He also has developed a remarkable application where you can select any player and any pitch with just about any limiting parameter you could want - say, Bob Howry fastballs to right-handed hitters on 0-2 counts with a velocity above 93 MPH that resulted in swinging strikes - and then view the results on a handy X/Y graph.
As if that's not enough, there's the more user friendly if less revolutionary pitch data commercially available at Baseball Info Solutions which is being applied by the talented folks at Fan Graphs. Fan Graphs now offers data on individual players' pitch selections and velocity, all thoroughly sortable. For instance, Tim Wakefield and Chad Bradford feature the two slowest average fastballs in the major at 74.2 and 78.6 MPH, respectively, while no one threw a changeup with greater frequency last year than Matt Wise, at 54%
There's a gold mine of potential information available at our fingertips, with The Baseball Analysts and The Hardball Times leading the way in this sort of analysis. With far less sophistication than what those guys can offer, let's see what it can tell us about the Cubs' staff.
Submit, Reader! A look at Cubs Pitcher Comparisons
Part of what makes TCR great is the knowledgeable and active participation of the readers. I mean, it's a very SMALL part, of course, but still a part. Keep sending stuff in, and we'll keep reading it. And maybe, just maybe, posting it. - Trans
YOUR 2007 AVERAGE BATTING PARTNERS (ABPs)
By Lawhide
Being bored recently, I decided to work on some statistical tomfoolery: I decided to find out who was the ABP for each Cubs pitcher in the majors. What’s an ABP? I took the OBP- and SLG-against for each pitcher and tried to find the most comparable 2007 MLB hitter. For instance, batters hitting against Will Ohman in 2007 hit a line of .355 OBP and .436 SLG (an OPS-against of .791). Luis Gonzalez (the old one) hit .359/.433/.792 this year, making him Will Ohman’s Average Batting Partner, or ABP.
Keep in mind that there’s not really any useful statistical information in an exercise like this, it’s purely for fun (at least, fun for those of us who are into the numbers side of things). That being said, here are your 2007 Cubs Pitcher ABPs.
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Who Starts in 2008?
What a difference a year makes. During the 2007 spring training, the starting rotation discussion centered around which of these three candidates would be our number five starter: Wade Miller, Mark Prior, and Angel Guzman.
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Bigfoot
The newest addition to the Cubs pitching staff, 37 year old (38 on April 2nd) Jon Lieber is apparently ready to pitch. His tenure in Philadelphia ended abruptly last season in the 6th inning, on June 20th, while backing up home plate on a play in Cleveland. It was one rotten day for him already as he had given up 7 runs on 10 hits and was on the hook for his 6th loss.- Read more about Bigfoot
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Recent comments
Sonicwind75 (view)
Right on schedule, just read an article in Baseball America entitled "10 MLB Prospects Outside The Top 100 Who Have Our Attention". Zyhir Hope was one of the prospects featured. It stated that he's "one of the biggest arrow-up sleeper prospects in the lower levels right now."
Not sharing to be negative about the trade, getting a top 100 prospect who is MLB ready should carry a heavy prospect cost. But man, Dodger sure are good at identifying and developing young talent. Andrew Friedman seems to have successfully merged Ray's development with Yankees financial might to create a juggernaut of an organization.
Sonicwind75 (view)
I suspect Brown will spend some time in the bullpen due to inning restrictions. Pitched only 93 innings last year and career high is 104 innings in 2022. I would expect them to be cautious with a young player with his injury history.
Childersb3 (view)
I wanted Almonte gone last week, but that was before Merryweather went down and Little got demoted. Almonte in his last 5 appearances has gone 4.1 IP with no ER or Runs. NO hits, 3 BBs and 8 SO. He did hit 96 with his 2S FB in AZ on Tues.
I don't see Jed waiving him when we have injuries all over and guys with options that can be sent down.
I probably won't like the move Jed makes, but he can't play the "let's hope no one wants his 1.7mil remaining deal and we can hide him in Iowa" card.
That's why I think the current Bullpen stays as is and Wicks goes to Iowa.
I don't like that, but that's the fix I see.
We'll find out soon enough!!!
TarzanJoeWallis (view)
Teheran minor league deal is done, per MLB.
TarzanJoeWallis (view)
Based on Phil’s sound analysis it sounds like a no brainer for Almonte to be placed on waivers as today’s roster move. We shall see.
Arizona Phil (view)
I suspect Counsell/Hottovy will use the piggy-back extensively, with Taillon and Hendricks pitching as the "pig" (and with a very short leash) and some combo of Wicks, Brown, and Wesneski (whichever two do not start) as the "backers."
Keep in mind that Keegan Thompson has a minor league option available, and if Yency Almonte is not outrighted by 4/26 he cannot be sent to the minors without his consent after that date. Almonte is out of minor league options, so I am talking about him getting outrighted to the minors if he is not claimed off waivers, and if he is claimed off waivers, the Cubs save the pro-rated portion of his $1.9M salary, which helps lower the Cubs 2024 AAV.
Dolorous Jon Lester (view)
Totally agree. The 26 man roster very rarely consists of the 13 best position players and 13 best pitchers.
Dolorous Jon Lester (view)
Based on what Jed has done in the past, I’d say the plan is to
-give Hendricks another few starts
-give Taillon some runway ot get his season underway
-Mix and match in the bullpen and see what sticks
Jed usually doesn’t do a whole lot of waiver wire plays in-season, at least early in the season. He only reallly did that after he blew up the rosters in 21 and 22 because they needed bodies (guys like Schwindel, Fargas, etc).
I think he’s a little handcuffed by a full 40 man in that he can’t really maneuver much with giving anyone showing ability at AAA (R Thompson/ Sanders/ Edwards etc). Brewer has the most tenuous grip there, and we will see what kind of chance he gets. Other than his spot, there isn’t a ton of 40 man wiggle room.
I’m very curious to see what happens with Brown now that Taillon returns. Bullpen? Wicks to Iowa?
Childersb3 (view)
Pro teams have to play their "big money" guys if they are healthy and not "locker room" issues.
The Cubs wanted to deal JHey off well before they bought him out. They just didn't want to pay him to play for someone else for that long. Jed did give him 20+mil to play for LAD last yr.
Jed might also let Kyle walk at some point this year. Similar scenario to JHey, except Jed thought Kyle was going to be good/solid in '24!!
You'd think Smyly is in the same book as well. Same with Neris (he's a 1yr vet RP, so he's not really in this convo too much).
That's ~35mil between those three and those three are going to get opportunities until at least late June) over younger guys even if their performance is "iffy".
But, Jed is going to play Taillon a lot. They have to try and justify that contract and hope a veteran works out.
So, Taillon, Imanaga, and Hendricks are locks for the rest of April and probably May.
Assad, Brown and Wicks handle the last spots until Steele is ready.
Now, you're question has real merit when Steele comes back. That will interesting if Brown is still good and Hendricks is still bad. But Taillon is entirely safe as long as he's healthy.
And the bullpen moves were "money" based as well. Smyly has actually been okay. But he hasn't been clearly better than Little. Little had one bad outing. But Smyly makes 9mil. If they needed another RHRP and one of Little and Smyly had to go, it was going to Little. But that doesn't mean Smyly is one of the best 13 arms for the team.
Arizona Phil (view)
Childersb3: I think there was an issue with Luke Little coming into a game with men on base. He seems to need a "clean" inning to be dominant. So he is a future closer and needs to be used in that role at AAA. Same goes for Michael Arias. He needs to come into a "clean" inning, and is a future closer and needs to be used in that role at AA. Porter Hodge is a more versatile pitcher, a better version of Keegan Thompson (multi-inning RP). But Little, Arias, and Hodge (probably in that order) are the Cubs top three RP prospects (all three are Cubs Top 15 prospects).